The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates.
This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled.
Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Table of Contents
|2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk||11-19|
|3 Description and Analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment of 2006||20-33|
|4 Department of Homeland Security Decision Requirements for Risk Management||34-41|
|5 Risk Assessment for Unknown and Engineered Biothreat Agents||42-46|
|6 Improving Bioterrorism Consequence Assessment||47-50|
|7 Improving the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment and Adding Risk Management||51-60|
|Appendix A: Lexicon||61-77|
|Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment||78-79|
|Appendix C: Computational Example Illustrating the Replacement of a Joint Distribution of Arc Probabilities with Marginal Expected Values of Individual Arc Probabilities||80-84|
|Appendix D: Bioterrorism Risk Analysis with Decision Trees||85-89|
|Appendix E: Optimizing Department of Homeland Security Defense Investments: Applying Defender-Attacker (-Defender) Optimization to Terror Risk Assessment and Mitigation||90-102|
|Appendix F: Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example||103-110|
|Appendix G: On the Quantification of Uncertainty and Enhancing Probabilistic Risk Analysis||111-115|
|Appendix H: Game Theory and Interdependencies||116-121|
|Appendix I: Review of BTRA Modeling||122-125|
|Appendix J: Reprinted Interim Report||126-148|
|Appendix K: Meeting Agendas||149-152|
|Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members||153-156|
|Appendix M: Acronyms||157-158|
The National Academies Press (NAP) has partnered with Copyright Clearance Center's Rightslink service to offer you a variety of options for reusing NAP content. Through Rightslink, you may request permission to reprint NAP content in another publication, course pack, secure website, or other media. Rightslink allows you to instantly obtain permission, pay related fees, and print a license directly from the NAP website. The complete terms and conditions of your reuse license can be found in the license agreement that will be made available to you during the online order process. To request permission through Rightslink you are required to create an account by filling out a simple online form. The following list describes license reuses offered by the National Academies Press (NAP) through Rightslink:
Click here to obtain permission for the above reuses. If you have questions or comments concerning the Rightslink service, please contact:
Rightslink Customer Care
Tel (toll free): 877/622-5543
To request permission to distribute a PDF, please contact our Customer Service Department at 800-624-6242 for pricing.
To request permission to translate a book published by the National Academies Press or its imprint, the Joseph Henry Press, please click here to view more information.