Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2
View larger
  • Status: Final Book
  • Downloads: 2,229
Purchase Options
Purchase Options MyNAP members save 10% online. Login or Register
Overview

Authors

Description

The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.

The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

Topics

  • Engineering and Technology — Policy, Reviews and Evaluations
  • Engineering and Technology — Applications of Technology

Publication Info

96 pages | 8.5 x 11
Paperback
ISBN: 978-0-309-14904-4
Contents
Related Resources
Research Tools

Suggested Citation

National Research Council. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010.

Import this citation to:

Copyright Information

The National Academies Press (NAP) has partnered with Copyright Clearance Center's Rightslink service to offer you a variety of options for reusing NAP content. Through Rightslink, you may request permission to reprint NAP content in another publication, course pack, secure website, or other media. Rightslink allows you to instantly obtain permission, pay related fees, and print a license directly from the NAP website. The complete terms and conditions of your reuse license can be found in the license agreement that will be made available to you during the online order process. To request permission through Rightslink you are required to create an account by filling out a simple online form. The following list describes license reuses offered by the National Academies Press (NAP) through Rightslink:

  • Republish text, tables, figures, or images in print
  • Post on a secure Intranet/Extranet website
  • Use in a PowerPoint Presentation
  • Distribute via CD-ROM
  • Photocopy

Click here to obtain permission for the above reuses. If you have questions or comments concerning the Rightslink service, please contact:

Rightslink Customer Care
Tel (toll free): 877/622-5543
Tel: 978/777-9929
E-mail: customercare@copyright.com
Web: http://www.rightslink.com

To request permission to distribute a PDF, please contact our Customer Service Department at 800-624-6242 for pricing.

To request permission to translate a book published by the National Academies Press or its imprint, the Joseph Henry Press, please click here to view more information.

Related Books more