TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 48: Impact of Jet Fuel Price Uncertainty on Airport Planning and Development is designed to help airport operators and planners measure the impact of changes in jet fuel price on supply and demand for air service at commercial service airports.
The report includes background research; a computer model, available online and in CD ROM format attached to the printed version of the report; and a user manual. Please note that macros must be enabled in the Microsoft Excel file for the program to run.
The output of the model can ultimately be used to help evaluate the impact of uncertainty on airport development and finance. Applying specific input parameters, the model, embedded in a user-friendly program, allows airport planners and managers to assess how fuel, economic, and other uncertainties may affect their particular airport and to test the sensitivity of varying assumptions about key drivers of airport activity.
The supporting research examines historical changes in fuel prices in the context of changing economic conditions and uses this experience to assess risk in adhering to existing air traffic forecasts when planning future airport improvements or expansion. The model illustrates risk using confidence bands that indicate a range of forecasts as a function of changing jet fuel prices and other factors. The research also examines the historic link between changes in jet fuel prices in relation to periodic occurrence of recessions and how changing demand may, in turn, result in changes in fleet composition and size.
The computer model software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB') be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operations of this product. TRB makes no representation or warrant of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.
Table of Contents
|Part I - Background Research||1-1|
|Chapter 1 - Introduction||4-5|
|2.2 Effects on Aviation Markets and Carriers||6-11|
|2.3 Changes in Air Services by Airport Type||12-14|
|2.4 Changes in Development Programs and Budgets at Specific Airports||15-17|
|3.1 Air Service Models||18-19|
|3.2 Statistical Results||20-21|
|3.3 Airport Impact Models||22-22|
|4.1 Embedding Uncertainty into Forecasts||23-25|
|4.2 Airport Outreach||26-27|
|Chapter 5 - Areas for Future Research||28-28|
|Appendix - Literature Review||29-35|
|Part II - Documentation for Airport Forecasting Risk Assessment Program||36-36|
|Software Quick Start||37-44|
|Abbreviations used without definitions in TRB publications||60-60|