Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling:

Volume I, Review and Recommendations

Status: Available Now

Size: 360 pages, 6 x 9

Publication Year:1991

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Authors:
Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council
Authoring Organizations

Description:
This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to ...
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Reviews:
"The report will almost certainly be widely cited and consulted by model builders. It should be widely cited, because it covers a broad range of model-building and model-using issues, and widely consulted, because it is so clearly written." --Journal of ...
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Table of Contents
Select a link below to start reading online free!
Front Matter	i-xiv
Summary	1-20	(skim)
1 Introduction	21-28	(skim)
Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward a Second Revolution	29-32	(skim)
2 The Search for Useful Information	33-51	(skim)
3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis	52-88	(skim)
Appendix: Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals	89-96	(skim)
Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool	97-100	(skim)
4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now	101-122	(skim)
5 Databases for Microsimulation	123-152	(skim)
6 Model Design and Development	153-181	(skim)
7 Computing Technology and Microsimulation	182-193	(skim)
8 Microsimulation Modeling of Health Care, Retirement Income, and Tax Policies	194-230	(skim)
9 Validation	231-264	(skim)
10 Documentation and Archiving	265-272	(skim)
11 The Microsimulation Modeling Community	273-289	(skim)
Appendix: Microsimulation Models, Databases, and Modeling Terms	290-310	(skim)
Glossary of Acronyms	311-313	(skim)
References	314-330	(skim)
Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff	331-346	(skim)

Description

This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes.
Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses.
The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

Reviews

"The report will almost certainly be widely cited and consulted by model builders. It should be widely cited, because it covers a broad range of model-building and model-using issues, and widely consulted, because it is so clearly written." --Journal of the American Statistical Association

Authoring Organizations

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