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Forensic Analysis: Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence

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Status: Available Now

Size: 228 pages, 6 x 9

Publication Year:2004

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Authors:
Committee on Scientific Assessment of Bullet Lead Elemental Composition Comparison, National Research Council
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Description:
Since the 1960s, FBI testimony in thousands of criminal cases has relied on evidence from Compositional Analysis of Bullet Lead (CABL), a forensic technique that compares the elemental composition of bullets found at a crime scene to the elemental composition ...
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Table of Contents
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Front Matter	i-xii
Executive Summary	1-7	(skim)
1. Introduction	8-11	(skim)
2. Compositional Analysis	12-25	(skim)
3. Statistical Analysis of Bullet Lead Data	26-70	(skim)
4. Interpretation	71-108	(skim)
5. Major Findings and Recommendations	109-114	(skim)
Appendix A: Statement of Task	115-117	(skim)
Appendix B: Committee Membership	118-123	(skim)
Appendix C: Committee Meeting Agendas	124-129	(skim)
Appendix D: Glossary	130-132	(skim)
Appendix E: Basic Principles of Statistics	133-141	(skim)
Appendix F: Simulating False Match Probabilities Based on Normal Theory	142-150	(skim)
Appendix G: Data Analysis of Table 1, Randich et al.	151-156	(skim)
Appendix H: Principal Components Analysis: How Many Elements Should Be Measured?	157-162	(skim)
Appendix I: The Birthday Problem Analogy	163-164	(skim)
Appendix J: Understanding the Significance of the Results of Trace Elemental Analysis of Bullet Lead	165-168	(skim)
Appendix K: Statistical Analysis of Bullet Lead Data by Karen Kafadar and Clifford Spiegelman	169-214	(skim)

Description

Since the 1960s, FBI testimony in thousands of criminal cases has relied on evidence from Compositional Analysis of Bullet Lead (CABL), a forensic technique that compares the elemental composition of bullets found at a crime scene to the elemental composition of bullets found in a suspect's possession. The report assesses the scientific validity of CABL, finding that the FBI should use a different statistical analysis for the technique, and that, given variations in bullets manufacturing processes, expert witnesses should make clear the very limited conclusions that CABL results can support.

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