Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps,
2000-2035
Becoming a 21st-Century Force
Volume 2: Technology
Panel on Technology
Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces
Naval Studies Board
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and
Applications
National Research Council
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This work was performed under Department of the Navy Contract N00014-96-D-0169/0001 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred.
The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do.
Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California, Chair
HERBERT RABIN, University of Maryland, Vice Chair
SUSAN D. ALLEN, Florida State University
RONALD CLARK, Lockheed Martin Corporation
ANTHONY J. DeMARIA, DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc.
DANIEL N. HELD, Northrop Grumman Corporation
RAY L. LEADABRAND, Leadabrand and Associates, Inc.
DAVID W. McCALL, Far Hills, New Jersey
WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS, Northstar Associates, Inc.
DENNIS L. POLLA, University of Minnesota
MARA G. PRENTISS, Harvard University
JOHN W. ROUSE, Southern Research Institute
ALBERT I. SCHINDLER, Rockville, Maryland
STEVEN J. TEMPLE, Raytheon Company
EDWARD W. THOMPSON, Hughes Research Laboratory
ROBERT M. WESTERVELT, Harvard University
Invited Participants
ARISTOS CHRISTOU, University of Maryland,
FRANK A. HORRIGAN, Raytheon Electronic Systems
JOHN W.R. POPE, JR., Tri-Tech Microproducts
TIMOTHY D. ROARK, TRW
HOWARD STEVENS, Vector Research (as of January 1, 1997)
Navy Liaison Representatives
PAUL G. BLATCH, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E
FRED WOLPERT, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E1
Consultants
LEE M. HUNT
SIDNEY G. REED, JR.
JAMES G. WILSON
Staff
RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director, Naval Studies Board
PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer
CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY FOR FUTURE NAVAL FORCES
DAVID R. HEEBNER, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Study Director
ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc.
ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University
NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute
GERALD A. CANN, Raytheon Company
GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University
SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired)
ALEXANDER FLAX, Potomac, Maryland
WILLIAM J. MORAN, Redwood City, California
ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses
ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University
JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California
VINCENT VITTO, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Navy Liaison Representatives
RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR., USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)
VADM THOMAS B. FARGO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations,
N81
(through July 3, 1996)
RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91
CDR DOUGLASS BIESEL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N812C1
PAUL G. BLATCH, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N911E
Marine Corps Liaison Representative
LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER, USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command
Consultants
LEE M. HUNT
SIDNEY G. REED, JR.
JAMES G. WILSON
Staff
RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director, Naval Studies Board
PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant
MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer
CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant
DAVID R. HEEBNER, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), Chair
GEORGE M. WHITESIDES, Harvard University, Vice Chair
ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc.
ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research laboratory, Pennsylvania State University
NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute
NORVAL L. BROOME, Mitre Corporation
GERALD A. CANN, Raytheon Company
SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses (retired), Special Advisor
ANTHONY J. DeMARIA, DeMaria ElectroOptics Systems, Inc.
JOHN F. EGAN, Lockheed Martin Corporation
ROBERT HUMMEL, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
DAVID W. McCALL, Far Hills, New Jersey
ROBERT J. MURRAY, Center for Naval Analyses
ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University
WILLIAM J. PHILLIPS, Northstar Associates, Inc.
MARA G. PRENTISS, Jefferson Laboratory, Harvard University
HERBERT RABIN, University of Maryland
JULIE JCH RYAN, Booz, Allen and Hamilton
HARRISON SHULL, Monterey, California
KEITH A. SMITH, Vienna, Virginia
ROBERT C. SPINDEL, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington
DAVID L. STANFORD, Science Applications International Corporation
H. GREGORY TORNATORE, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University
J. PACE VanDEVENDER, Prosperity Institute
VINCENT VITTO, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BRUCE WALD, Arlington Education Consultants
Navy Liaison Representatives
RADM JOHN W. CRAINE, JR., USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 (as of July 4, 1996)
VADM THOMAS B. FARGO, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations,
N81
(through July 3, 1996)
RADM RICHARD A. RIDDELL, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91
RONALD N. KOSTOFF, Office of Naval Research
Marine Corps Liaison Representative
LtGen PAUL K. VAN RIPER, USMC, Marine Corps Combat Development Command
RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director
PETER W. ROONEY, Program Officer
SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant
MARY G. GORDON
CHRISTOPHER A. HANNA, Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS
ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-Chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-Chair
PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania
RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc.
JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University
RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College
SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania
THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory
L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Minnesota
SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
CHARLES A. ZRAKET, Mitre Corporation (retired)
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
This report is part of the nine-volume series entitled Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force. The series is the product of an 18-month study requested by the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO). To carry out this study, eight technical panels were organized under the Committee on Technology for Future Naval Forces to examine all of the specific technical areas called out in the terms of reference.
On November 28, 1995, the Chief of Naval Operations requested that the National Research Council initiate (through its Naval Studies Board) a thorough examination of the impact of advancing technology on the form and capability of the naval forces to the year 2035. The terms of reference of the study specifically asked for an identification of "present and emerging technologies that relate to the full breadth of Navy and Marine Corps mission capabilities," with specific attention to "(1) information warfare, electronic warfare, and the use of surveillance assets; (2) mine warfare and submarine warfare; (3) Navy and Marine Corps weaponry in the context of effectiveness on target; [and] (4) issues in caring for and maximizing effectiveness of Navy and Marine Corps human resources." Ten specific technical areas were identified, to which attention should be broadly directed. (The CNO's letter of request with the full terms of reference are given in Appendix A of this report).
The Panel on Technology was constituted to address item 1 of the terms of reference:
"Recognizing the need to obtain maximum leverage from Navy and Marine Corps capital assets within existing and planned budgets, the review should place emphasis on surveying present and emerging technical opportunities to advance Navy and Marine Corps capabilities within these constraints. The review should include key military and civilian technologies that can affect Navy and Marine Corps future operations. This technical assessment should evaluate which science and technology research must be maintained in naval research laboratories as core requirements versus what research commercial industry can be relied upon to develop."
Panel membership included broad expertise in managing large-scale technology development programs, as well as specific expertise in condensed matter physics; electronics and electrical engineering; photonics, optics, and electro-optics; materials science, including micro- and nanofabrication; chemistry and chemical engineering; computer and information science; and space science and engineering. The panel held 12 meetings over the course of a year during which it received input from scientists, engineers, and decisionmakers from government, industry, and academia.
The Panel on Technology would like to acknowledge the critical help of the following experts who made important contributions to this report: M. Al-Sheikhly, S. Ankem, R. Briber, W. Chappas, I. Lloyd, J. Quinn, R. Ramesh, G. Rubloff, and M. Wuttig, all from the University of Maryland; R.C. Cammarata, from Johns Hopkins University; L.-Q. Chen, from Pennsylvania State University; C.K. Cowan, P.G. Mulgaonkar, and V. Shastri, from SRI International; R. Crowe, from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); M.J. Daily and K. Reiser, from Hughes Research Laboratory; D.E. Dietrich, from Mississippi State University; J. Dorr, from Duke and Associates; R.C. Herndon, G. Jones, T.N. Krishnamurti, and J.J. O'Brien, from Florida State University; M.E. Fine and S. Vaynman, from Northwestern University; O.T. Inal, from the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Metallurgy; D.V. Burke, Jr., M. O'Brien, M. Prestero, P. Rosenstrach, and G.T. Schmidt, from the Charles Stark Draper Laboratory; R. Spindel, from the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington; and C. Tschan, from the U.S. Air Force's 50th Weather Squadron.
In addition to acknowledging the valuable help of the outside experts noted above, the panel's would like to acknowledge the following panel members and invited participants for their extraordinary efforts during the course of this study: S.D. Allen, from Florida State University; A. Christou, from the University of Maryland; R. Clark, from Lockheed Martin Corporation; F.A. Horrigan, from Raytheon Electronic Systems; W.J. Phillips, from Northstar Associates, Inc.; J.W. Rouse, Jr., from Southern Research Institute; and E.W. Thompson, from Hughes Research Laboratory.
1 Overview of Technology Opportunities
Driving Technology Application
Areas
Key Benefits
Exciting New
Technologies
Science and Technology
Support
Focused Research and
Development
2 Computation
Introduction: What Is
Computation?
Relevance: What Will Computation
Do for the Navy and Marine Corps?
Technology Status and
Trends
Future Impact on Naval
Operations
Developments Needed: Military
Versus Commercial
Status of Foreign Efforts
and Trends
Time Scale for
Development and Deployment
Recommendation
3 Information and Communications
Military Context
Definition of Information
Technologies
Distributed
Collaboration
Human-centered Systems
Technology
Intelligent
Systems
Planning and Decision
Aids
Software
Engineering
Communications and
Internetworking
Offensive and Defensive
Information Warfare
Recommendations
4 Sensors
Introduction
Relevance: What Do sensors Do for
the Naval Forces?
Technology Status and
Trends
Critical Common Technologies
Individual Sensors
Future Impact on Naval
Operations
Developments
Needed—Military Versus Commercial
Foreign Technology Status
and Trends
Time Scale for
Development and Deployment
Recommendation
5 Automation
Introduction
Unmanned Underwater
Vehicles
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Ship Automation
GPS/INS Systems for Naval Platforms and
Weapons
Robotics
Automatic Target Recognition
Recommendation
6 Technology for Human Performance
Introduction
Technologies That Will Have an
Impact
Applications
Recommendations
7 Materials Technologies
Introduction
Development Drivers
Technology Trends and Future Material
Developments
Anticipated Benefits of the Application
of Materials Technologies
Recommendation
8 Electric Power and Propulsion
Introduction
Electric Power Generation and
Storage Technology
Power Conditioning and
Distribution
The Electric Ship
Power and Propulsion
Recommendations
9 Future Naval Forces and the Operating Environment
Introduction
Terrestrial Weather and
Climate Prediction
Space Weather Prediction
Deep-water Modeling
Littoral-water Modeling
Shipboard Waste and Pollution
Management
Recommendations
10 Technologies for Enterprise Processes
Introduction
Simulation-based
Acquisition
Agile Commerce
Real-time Logistics
Management
Resource Planning
Dynamic Mission
Planning
System of Systems
Recommendation
11 Other Technology Application Areas
Space
Signature
Management
Chemical and Biological
Warfare
Combat Identification
Recommendations
Appendixes
A Terms of Reference
B Acronyms and Abbreviations
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