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STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS
Sea-Level Change
Geophysics Study Committee
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics,
and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1990
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for
the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report
Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to
their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the
Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr.
Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy
of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the
federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engi-
neers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of-Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services
of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of
the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues
of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of
advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy,
the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the
National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and
engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine.
Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
Support for the Geophysics Study Committee was provided by the Department of Energy, the National
Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Sea-level change / Geophysics Study Committee, Commission on Physical
Sciences and Resources, National Research Council.
p. cm. (Studies in geophysics)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-309-04039-6
1. Sea level. I. Geophysics Research Forum (U.S.). Geophysics
Study Committee. II. Series.
55 1.4'58 dc20
Copyright @) 1990 by the National Academy of Sciences
90-5839
CIP
No part of this book may be reporoduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form
of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for
public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the
United States Government.
Printed in the United States of America
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Pane! on
Sea-Leve} Change
ROGER R. REVELLE, University of California, San Diego, Chairman
TIM P. BARNETT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University
ARTHUR L. BLOOM, Cornell University
NICHOLAS CHRISTIE-BLICK, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory
C. G. A. HARRISON, University of Miami
WILLIAM W. HAY, University of Colorado
ROBLEY K. MATTHEWS, Brown University
MARK F. MEIER, University of Colorado
WALTER H. MUNK, University of California, San Diego
W. RICHARD PELTIER, University of Toronto
DEAN ROEMMICH, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
W. STURGES, Florida State University
ERIC T. SUNDQUIST, U.S. Geological Survey
KEITH R. THOMPSON, Dalhousie University
STARLEY L. THOMPSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
. . .
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Geophysics
Study Committee
BYRON D. TAPLEY, University of Texas, Chairman
RICHARD T. BARBER, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
ROBIN BRETT, U.S. Geological Survey
RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California, Irvine
tRANA A. FINE, University of Miami
LYNN W. GELHAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
*ARNOLD L. GORDON, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory
*MARK F. MEIER, University of Colorado
T NORMAN F. NESS, University of Delaware
*THOMAS A. POTEMRA, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University
T GEORGE C. REID, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
tROBERT S. YEATS, Oregon State University
Staff
THOMAS M. USSELMAN
Agency Liaison Representatives
BILAL U. HAQ, National Science Foundation
GEORGE A. KOLSTAD, Department of Energy
NED A. OSTENSO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
*Terms ended June SO, 1989
[Terms began July 1, 1989
1V
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Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources
NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
C. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University (emeritus)
RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California, Irvine
HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired)
PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM, T. J. Watson Research Center
MARYE ANN FOX, University of Texas
GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory
LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation (retired)
PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University
NEAL F. LANE, Rice University
CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley
RICHARD S. NICHOLSON, American Association for the Advancement of Science
JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University
JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory
FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University
DENIS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation
DAVID M. RAUP, University of Chicago
ROY F. SCHWITTERS, EG&G, Inc.
LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University
MYRON F. UMAN, Acting Executive Director
v
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Studies in Geophysics
,6
ENERGY AND CLIMATE
Roger R. Revelle, panel chairman, 1977, 158 pp.
ESTUARIES, GEOPHYSICS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Charles B. Officer, panel chairman, 1977, 127 pp.
CLIMATE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, AND WATER SUPPLY
James R. Wallis, panel chairman, 1977, 132 pp.
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND MAGNETOSPHERE
Francis S. Johnson, panel chairman, 1977, 168 pp.
GEOPHYSICAL PREDICTIONS
Helmut E. Landsberg, panel chairman, 1978, 215 pp.
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON GEOPHYSICS
Homer E. Newell, panel chairman, 1979, 136 pp.
CONTINENTAL TECTONICS
B. Clark Burchfiel, Jack E. Oliver, and Leon T. Silver, panel co-chairmen, 1980,
197 pp.
MINERAL RESOURCES: GENETIC UNDERSTANDING FOR PRACTICAL
APPLICATIONS
Paul B. Barton, Jr., panel chairman, 1981, 119 pp.
SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF WATER-RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Myron B. Fiering, panel chairman, 1982, 127 pp.
*Published to date.
. .
V11
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SOLAR VARIABILITY, WEATHER, AND CLIMATE
John A. Eddy, panel chairman, 1982, 104 pp.
CLIMATE IN EARTH HISTORY
Wolfgang H. Berger and John C. Crowell, panel co-chairmen, 1982, 198 pp.
FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH ON ESTUARIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF AN
INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH
L. Eugene Cronin and Charles B. Officer, panel co-chairmen, 1983, 79 pp.
EXPLOSIVE VOLCANISM: INCEPTION, EVOLUTION, AND HAZARDS
Francis R. Boyd, panel chairman, 1984, 176 pp.
GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION
John D. Bredehoeft, panel chairman, 1984, 179 pp.
ACTIVE TECTONICS
Robert E. Wallace, panel chairman, 1986, 266 pp.
THE EARTH'S ELECTRICAL ENVIRONMENT
E. Philip Krider and Raymond G. Roble, panel co-chairmen, 1986, 263 pp.
SEA-LEVEL CHANGE
Roger R. Revelle, panel chairman, 1990, 246 pp.
. . .
vail
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Preface
This study is part of a series, Studies in Geophysics, that has been undertaken to provide
assessments from the scientific community to aid policymakers in decisions on societal
problems that involve geophysics. An important part of such assessments is an evaluation
of the adequacy of current geophysical knowledge and the appropriateness of current
research programs as a source of information required for those decisions.
This study on sea-level change was initiated by the Geophysics Study Committee in
consultation with the liaison representatives of the agencies that support the committee,
relevant boards and committees within the National Research Council, and members of the
scientific community.
The study addresses our current scientific understanding of sea-level change particu-
larly the processes of sea-level change, their rates, and the record of past change. For
example, how much of apparent sea-level change is related to global changes in the
volume and mass of the ocean basins (eustatic signal) and how much is related to tectonic
factors that might contaminate the eustatic signal? The object of the study is to present an
integrated picture of sea-level change its causes, feedbacks, and record.
The preliminary scientific findings of the authored background chapters were presented
at an American Geophysical Union (AGU) symposium. In completing their chapters, the
authors had the benefit of discussions at this symposium and comments from several
scientific referees. Ultimate responsibility for the individual chapters, however, rests with
their respective authors. Although a fair amount of time has elapsed since the symposium,
the authors made efforts to incorporate up-to-date information within their respective
chapters.
The Overview and Recommendations of the study summarizes the highlights of the
chapters and formulates conclusions and recommendations. In preparing the Overview
1X
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x
PREFACE
and Recommendations, the panel chairman and the Geophysics Study Committee made
use of comments from meetings at the AGU symposium, the members of the panel, several
meetings of the committee, and the reviews of scientists, who were approved by the
National Research Council's Report Review Committee. Responsibility of the Overview
and Recommendations rests with the Geophysics Study Committee and the chairman of
the panel.
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Contents
Overview and Recommendations.
THE RECORD
1. Recent Changes in Sea Level: A Summary
Tim P. Barnett
2. North Atlantic Sea Level and Circulation.
Keith R. Thompson
3.
Large-Scale Coherence of Sea Level at Very Low Frequencies
W. Sturges
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Relative Sea-Level Change.......
W. Richard Pettier
5. Quaternary Sea-Level Change ................................
Robley K. Matthews
6. Graphic Analysis of Dislocated Quaternary Shorelines
Arthur L. Bloom and Nobuyuki Yonekura
7.
Seismic Stratigraphic Record of Sea-Level Change
Nicholas Christie-Thick, G. S. Mountain, and K. G. Miller
8. Long-Term Eustasy and Epeirogeny in Continents
C. G. A. Harrison
X1
... 37
.52
63
.73
... 88
.. 104
.116
.. 141
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. .
X11
CONTENTS
PROCESSES AND FEEDBACKS
9. Could Possible Changes in Global Groundwater Reservoir Cause
Eustatic Sea-Level Fluctuations? ..............................
William W. Hay and Mark A. Leslie
10. Role of Land Ice in Present and Future Sea-Level Change
Mark F. Meter
11. Sea Level and Climate Change ......
Eric ]. Barron and Starley L. Thompson
12. Long-Term Aspects of Future Atmospheric CO2 and
Sea-Level Changes .......................................
Eric T. Sundquist
13. Sea Level and the Thermal Variability of the Ocean.
Dean Roemmich
FUTURE MEASUREMENTS
14. Strategy for Future Measurements of Very-Low-Frequency
Sea-Level Change .............................
Walter Munk, Roger Revelle, Peter Worcester, and Mark Zumberge
Index ......
.. 161
... 171
... 185
.... 193
..... 208
..... 221
. 229
