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OCR for page R1
Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming
Mitigation, Adaptation,
and the Science Base
Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1992
National Academy Press • 2101 Constitution Ave.,
N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance. This report is the result of work done by an
independent panel appointed by the Committee on Science,
Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized its release to
the public.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors
according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and
by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both
consist of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.).
Panel on
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.
Policy implications of greenhouse warming : mitigation,
adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications
of
Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and
Public
Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of
Engineering, Institute of Medicine.
p. cm.
Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming—Synthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the
same
title.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN 0-309-04386-7
1. Global warming—Government policy—United States.
2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric—Government
policy—United States
3. Environmental policy—United States. I. Title.
QC98.8.G56C64 1992
363.73´87—dc20 92-11583
CIP
This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock.
Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
S308
Printed in the United States of America
OCR for page R2
National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. · Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern-
ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the
councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer-
ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the
report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate
balance This report is the result of work done by an independent panel appointed
by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized
its release to the public.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to
procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and by the Committee on
Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both consist of members of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.~. Panel on
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.
Policy implications of greenhouse warming: mitigation,
adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public
Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of
Engineering, Institute of Medicine.
p. cm.
Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming Synthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the same
title.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN 0-309-04386-7
1. Global warming Government policy-United States.
2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric Government policy-
United States
3. Environmental policy-United States. I. Title.
QC981.8.G56C64 1992
363.73'87 dc20
This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock. 0,'
92-11583
CIP
Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
S308
Printed in the United States of America
OCR for page R3
Page iii
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Synthesis Panel
DANIEL J. EVANS (Chairman), Chairman, Daniel J. Evans &
Associates, Seattle, Washington
ROBERT McCORMICK ADAMS, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution,
Washington, D.C.
GEORGE F. CARRIER, T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied
Mathematics, Emeritus, Harvard University, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research
Laboratories, Warren, Michigan
THOMAS H. LEE, Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical
Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources
Institute, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University,
New Haven, Connecticut
GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Director of the
Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Washington,
Seattle
STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MAURICE STRONG, Secretary General, United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development, New York (resigned from panel February
1990)
SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Senior Consultant, Landers, Parsons and
Uhlfelder, Tallahassee, Florida
PAUL E. WAGGONER, Distinguished Scientist, The Connecticut
Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
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Page iv
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Effects Panel
GEORGE F. CARRIER (Chairman), T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of
Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
WILFRIED BRUTSAERT, Professor of Hydrology, Civil and
Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
ROBERT D. CESS, Leading Professor, State University of New York,
Stony Brook
HERMAN CHERNOFF, Professor of Statistics, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, Professor, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona,
Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, H.L. Doherty Professor of Oceanography, Department
of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode
Island
THOMAS B. KARL, Meteorologist, Climate Research and
Applications, National Climate Data Center, Asheville, North
Carolina
MICHAEL C. MacCRACKEN, Physicist and Division Leader,
Atmospheric and Geophysical Sciences, Lawrence Livermore
Laboratory, University of California, Livermore
BERRIEN MOORE, Professor and Director, Institute for the Study
of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire,
Durham
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
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Page v
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Mitigation Panel
THOMAS H. LEE (Chairman), Professor Emeritus, Department of
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge
PETER BREWER, Executive Director, Monterey Bay Aquarium and
Research Center, Pacific Grove, California
RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT CRANDALL, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution,
Washington, D.C.
ROBERT EVENSON, Professor of Economics, Yale University,
Economic Growth Center, New Haven, Connecticut
DOUGLAS FOY, Executive Director, Conservation Law Foundation,
Boston, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research
Laboratories, Warren, Michigan
RICHARD GARWIN, Fellow, Thomas J. Watson Research Center,
Yorktown Heights, New York, and Adjunct Professor of Physics,
Columbia University, New York
JOSEPH GLAS, Director, Vice President, and General Manager,
Fluorochemicals Division, E.I. du Pont, Wilmington, Delaware
KAI N. LEE, Professor and Director, Center for Environmental
Studies, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
GREGG MARLAND, Scientist, Environmental Science Division, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources
Institute, Washington, D.C.
ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD, Professor of Physics, University of
California, Berkeley, and Director, Center for Building Science,
Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California
EDWARD S. RUBIN, Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Public
Policy, and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies,
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
MILTON RUSSELL, Professor of Economics and Senior Fellow,
University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and Collaborating Scientist,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
EUGENE B. SKOLNIKOFF, Professor of Political Science,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
THOMAS H. STIX, Professor, Department of Astrophysics and Plasma
Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
EDITH BROWN WEISS, Professor of Law, Georgetown University,
Washington, D.C. (resigned from panel October 1990)
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
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Page vi
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Adaptation Panel
PAUL E. WAGGONER (Chairman), Distinguished Scientist,
Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven,
Connecticut
JESSE H. AUSUBEL, Fellow in Science and Public Policy, The
Rockefeller University, New York
CLARK BINKLEY, Dean, Faculty of Forestry, University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
MARY M. KRITZ, Professor of Development Sociology and Associate
Director, Population and Development Program, Cornell University,
Ithaca, New York
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University professor, The Rockefeller
University, New York
WILLIAM LEWIS, Partner, McKinsey and Company, Washington,
D.C.
JON C. LIEBMAN, Professor of Environmental Engineering, Civil
Engineering Department, University of Illinois, Urbana
JANE LUBCHENCO, Professor, Department of Zoology, Oregon State
University, Corvallis
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University,
New Haven, Connecticut
GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Environmental
Studies, University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM E. RIEBSAME, Director, Natural Hazards Research and
Applications Information Center, University of Colorado,
Boulder
NORMAN J. ROSENBERG, Senior Fellow and Director, Climate
Resources Program, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
DANIEL P. SHEER, President, Water Resources Management,
Columbia, Maryland
SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
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Page vii
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public
Policy
CORNELIUS J. PINGS (Chairman), Provost and Senior Vice President
of Academic Affairs, University of Southern California, Los
Angeles, California
NORMAN ABRAMSON,* former Executive Vice President, Southwest
Research Institute
LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Maria Moors Cabot Professor of Biology,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
STUART BONDURANT, Professor and Dean, School of Medicine,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
ROBERT A. BURT, South Mayd Professor of Law, Yale Law School,
New Haven, Connecticut
ALBERT M. CLOGSTON, Member, Center for Material Sciences, Los
Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New
York
HARRY B. GRAY, Arnold O. Beckman Professor of Chemistry,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
WILLIAM G. HOWARD, JR., Scottsdale, Arizona
RICHARD J. JOHNS, † Massey Professor and Director,
Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University,
Baltimore, Maryland
FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor, Department of Physics,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JOHN L. McLUCAS, Aerospace Consultant, Alexandria, Virginia
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Executive Director of Research, Materials
Science Engineering and Academic Affairs Division, AT&T Bell
Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey
FRANK PRESS (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of
Sciences, Washington, D.C.
MAXINE F. SINGER, † President, Carnegie Institution of
Washington, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT M. SOLOW, Institute Professor, Department of Economics,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
H. GUYFORD STEVER, Science Advisor, Washington, D.C.
KENNETH I. SHINE (Ex-Officio), President, Institute of
Medicine, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT M. WHITE (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy
of Engineering, Washington, D.C.
Staff
LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Executive Director
BARBARA A. CANDLAND, Administrative Assistant
*Term expired 6/30/90.
†Term expired 6/30/91.
OCR for page R8
Page viii
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank
Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy
(COSEPUP) is a joint committee of the National Academy of Sciences,
the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
It includes members of the councils of all three bodies.
The study reported here was supported by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. It also received support from the National
Research Council Fund, a pool of private, discretionary, nonfederal
funds that is used to support a program of Academy studies of
national issues in which science and technology figure
significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from a
consortium of private foundations, including the Carnegie
Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T.
MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the
Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the
Academy Industry Program, which seeks annual contributions from
companies that are concerned with the health of U.S. science and
technology and with public policy issues with technological
content.
OCR for page R9
Page ix
Preface
Greenhouse gases and global warming have received increasing
attention in recent years. The identification of the antarctic
ozone hole in 1985 combined with the hot, dry summer of 1988 in
North America to provide the drama that seems to be required for
capturing national media coverage. Emerging scientific results,
including findings about greenhouse gases other than carbon
dioxide, added to the interest.
One consequence was congressional action. The HUD-Independent
Agencies Appropriations Act of 1988 (House Report 100-701:26)
called for
[an] NAS study on global climate change. This
study should establish the scientific consensus on the rate and
magnitude of climate change, estimate the projected impacts, and
evaluate policy options for mitigating and responding to such
changes. The need for and utility of improved temperature
monitoring capabilities should also be examined, as resources
permit.
According to subsequent advice received from members of
Congress, the study was to focus on radiatively active trace gases
from human sources, or "greenhouse warming." This report combines
in a single volume the products of that study.
The study was conducted under the auspices of the Committee on
Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, a unit of the councils of
the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The study involved
nearly 50 experts, including scientists as well as individuals with
experience in government, private industry, and public interest
organizations.
The work of the study was conducted by four panels. The
Synthesis Panel (whose membership is listed on page iii) was
charged with developing overall findings and recommendations. The
Effects Panel (whose membership is listed on page iv) examined what
is known about changing climatic
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Page x
conditions and related effects. The Mitigation Panel (whose
membership is listed on page v) looked at options for reducing or
reversing the onset of potential global warming. The Adaptation
Panel (whose membership is listed on page vi) assessed the impacts
of possible climate change on human and ecologic systems and the
policies that could help people and natural systems adapt to those
changes.
The panels conducted their analyses simultaneously between
September 1989 and January 1991. The chairmen of the Effects,
Mitigation, and Adaptation panels were members of the Synthesis
Panel. Several members of the Synthesis Panel also were members of
other panels. In its deliberations, however, the Synthesis Panel
considered more than just the reports of the other panels. It also
heard from experts with a range of views on the policy relevance of
computer simulation models, widely held to be the best available
tools for projecting climate change, and of economic models used to
assess consequences of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The study also drew upon the report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, an international effort released during the
course of the study. Several members of the various study panels
also contributed to that effort. Finally, the study drew upon other
Academy studies. For example, in its examination of sea level, the
panel used analyses from the following reports: Glaciers, Ice
Sheets, and Sea Level: Effects of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change (National
Academy Press, 1985); Responding to Changes in Sea Level:
Engineering Implications (National Academy Press, 1987); and
Sea-Level Change (National Academy Press, 1990). The
findings and recommendations of the Synthesis Panel are thus much
more than a summary of the assessments performed by the other three
panels. They contain analysis that goes beyond the topics covered
by the other panels.
About eight months elapsed between the initial release of the
report of the Synthesis Panel and the time at which this document
went to press. The response to that report and to the
prepublication documents prepared by the other panels has been
gratifying. Our findings and recommendations and the analyses upon
which they are based have been presented to members of Congress and
officials in the federal administration. They have been distributed
to officials and interested individuals in other countries. Many
news stories have referred to our work. We believe the study has
already helped guide the national debate and demonstrated a
rational approach to evaluating possible responses. We hope this
document will continue to do so.
The report identifies what should be done now to counter
potential greenhouse warming or deal with its likely consequences.
The recommendations, if followed, should provide the United States,
and the rest of the world, with a rational basis for responding to
this important concern.
The Honorable Daniel J. Evans,
Chairman
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Page xi
Contents
PART ONE: SYNTHESIS
1
1 INTRODUCTION
3
2 BACKGROUND
5
The Global Nature of Greenhouse
Warming,
5
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Human
Activities,
5
The Effects of World Population and
Economic Growth,
6
Trends in Human Activities Affecting
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations,
7
3 THE GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR
EFFECTS
12
Earth's Radiation Balance,
14
What We Can Learn from Climate
Models,
19
What We Can Learn from the
Temperature Record,
22
Sea Level,
25
Possible Dramatic Changes,
26
Conclusions,
26
4 POLICY FRAMEWORK
29
Comparing Mitigation and
Adaptation,
29
Assigning Values to Future
Outcomes,
31
A Method for Comparing Options,
32
Assessing Mitigation Options,
33
Assessing Adaptation Options,
34
Other Factors Affecting Policy
Choices About Greenhouse Warming,
35
Page xvi
Direct Governmental Control,
234
Public Education,
235
International Implications,
236
Other Benefits and Costs,
237
Research and Development Needs,
238
Conclusions,
239
Notes,
241
References,
242
22 INDUSTRIAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT
248
Recent Trends,
250
Effects of Structural
Changes,
252
Effects of Efficiency
Improvements,
253
Emission Control Methods,
256
Fuel and Energy Switching,
256
Energy Conservation Measures,
259
Changes in Process Design,
269
Macroeconomic Structural
Changes,
270
Barriers to Implementation,
271
Policy Options,
272
Fuel Taxes,
272
Efficiency Incentives,
273
Investment Tax Credits,
273
Research and Development Needs,
279
Conclusions,
279
Notes,
283
References,
283
23 TRANSPORATION ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
286
Vehicle Efficiency,
286
Recent Trends,
287
Emission Control Methods,
289
Barriers to Implementation,
298
Policy Options,
301
Alternative Transportation Fuels,
304
Emission Control Methods,
304
Barriers to Implementation,
309
Policy Options,
310
Transportation System Management,
310
Recent Trends,
310
Emission Control Methods,
311
Barriers to Implementation,
312
Policy Options,
314
Page xvii
Other Benefits and Costs,
320
Research and Development Needs,
322
Conclusions,
323
Notes,
325
References,
325
24 ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEMS
330
Recent Trends,
333
Emission Control Methods,
335
Electricity Generation,
336
Integrated Energy Systems,
344
Cost-Effectiveness,
353
Barriers to Implementation
357
Policy Options,
367
Other Benefits and Costs,
368
Research and Development Needs,
369
Conclusions,
371
Notes,
372
References,
372
25 NONENERGY EMISSION REDUCTION
376
Halocarbons,
376
Recent Trends,
376
Emission Control Methods,
383
Barriers to Implementation,
389
Policy Options,
390
Other Benefits and Costs,
392
Research and Development,
392
Conclusions,
393
Agriculture,
393
Methane,
394
Recent Trends,
395
Emission Control Methods,
395
Barriers to
Implementation,
398
Policy Options,
399
Nitrous Oxide,
402
Recent Trends,
402
Emission Control Options,
402
Barriers to
Implementation,
403
Policy Options,
403
Research and Development,
404
Conclusions,
404
Landfill Methane,
405
Page xviii
Recent Trends,
406
Emission Control Methods,
407
Barriers to Implementation,
410
Policy Options,
410
Other Benefits and Costs,
411
Research and Development,
411
Conclusions,
411
Note,
412
References,
412
26 Population
414
Recent Trends,
414
Population Programs as an Emission
Control Method,
416
Barriers to Implementation,
418
Policy Options,
420
Other Benefits and Costs,
421
Research and Development,
421
Conclusions,
421
References,
422
27 DEFORESTATION
424
Recent Trends,
424
Emission Control Methods,
425
Barriers to Implementation,
428
Policy Options,
429
Other Benefits and Costs,
430
Research and Development,
430
Conclusion,
431
Note,
431
References,
431
28 Geoengineering
433
Reforestation,
437
Recent Trends,
437
Storing Carbon in Trees,
439
Obstacles to Implementation,
441
Policy Options,
441
Other Benefits and Costs,
442
Research and Development,
442
Conclusions,
442
Increasing Ocean Absorption of Carbon
Dioxide,
442
The Approach,
442
Cost Estimates,
444
Page xix
Some Problems,
446
Screening Out Some Sunlight,
447
Estimating Screen Parameters,
447
Space Mirrors,
448
Space Dust,
448
Stratospheric Dust,
448
Multiple Balloon Screen,
454
Changing Cloud Abundance,
454
Atmospheric Chlorofluorocarbon
Removal,
457
Conclusions,
458
Notes,
460
References,
462
29 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
465
U.S. Mitigation Policy,
465
Categories of Mitigation Options,
467
Category 1 Options,
474
Category 2 Options,
475
Category 3 Options,
481
Comparing the Different Mitigation
Options,
481
Implementing Response Programs,
490
International Considerations,
494
Final Thoughts,
495
Note,
497
Reference,
497
PART FOUR: ADAPTATION
499
30 FINDINGS
501
Climate Change Is One of Many
Changes,
501
Humanity and Nature Have the
Potential to Adapt,
502
Some Indices Matter More,
503
Some Activities Have Low
Sensitivity,
504
Some Activities Are Sensitive But Can
Be Adapted at a Cost,
505
Some Activities Are Sensitive and
Their Adaptation or Adjustment Is Questionable,
506
The Impacts of Some Conceivable
Climate Changes Are Large But Cannot Be Assessed,
507
References,
507
31 RECOMMENDATIONS
508
Improve Information and Analysis,
508
Assess Actual Climatic
Impacts,
508
Page xx
Perform Research and Development
on Adaptation for Climate Change,
508
Monitor the Climate and Forecast
the Weather,
510
Improve Institutions,
510
Consider Efforts to Advance
Regional Mobility of People, Capital, and Goods,
510
Build Effective Government,
511
Promote Markets,
511
Improve Investments,
512
Preserve Biological
Diversity,
513
Cope with Present
Variability,
513
Remember Long-Lived Facilities
and Preservation of Heritage,
514
Help Others,
514
32 ISSUES, ASSUMPTIONS, AND
VALUES
515
Definitions,
515
Assumptions,
517
Economic and Ethical Values,
521
Notes,
523
References,
523
33 METHODS AND TOOLS
525
Methods of Adaptation,
525
Adjustment by Nature,
525
Adaptation by Humanity,
527
The Tools of Innovation,
530
Making Decisions in an Uncertain
World,
534
Partial Justifications and Multiple
Goals,
537
Criteria for Using the Tools of
Government,
538
References,
539
34 SENSITIVITIES, IMAPCTS, AND
ADAPTATIONS
541
Primary Production of Organic
Matter,
551
Why This Subject,
551
Photosynthesis,
551
Leaf Pores,
551
Some Initial Reasoning,
552
Limiting Factors,
553
Limitation on Experiments,
554
Observations Outdoors,
555
Summary,
555
Farming,
556
Page xxi
Concentrate on Crops,
556
Crop Sensitivity to Climate,
556
Natural Resources,
557
Estimating Sensitivity,
557
Estimating Impacts,
560
Adaptation of Food
Production,
561
Summary,
566
Forests and Grasslands,
567
Concentrate on the Managed
Trees,
567
Sensitivities of Forests,
569
Estimating Impacts,
570
Adaptation,
571
Summary,
575
The Natural Landscape,
575
Difference from Farming and
Forestry,
575
Sensitivities,
576
Calculating Impacts,
577
Adaptation,
578
Summary,
582
The Marine and Coastal
Environment,
582
The Basics,
583
Sensitivities and Impacts for
Coastal Habitats,
584
Sensitivities and Impacts for
Ocean Habitats,
589
Adaptation,
590
Summary,
591
Water Resources,
592
The Basics,
592
Sensitivity of Water Resources to
Climate,
592
Impact,
594
How Water Can Be Managed,
595
How Water Has Been Managed,
597
Summary,
599
Industry and Energy,
599
Basics,
599
Sensitivity of Electric Power
Generation,
601
Estimating Impacts,
602
Adaptation,
605
Summary,
607
Tourism and Recreation,
607
Settlements and Coastal
Structures,
608
The Basics,
608
Sensitivities,
608
Impacts,
609
Page xxii
Adaptations,
611
When to Adapt,
614
Summary,
614
Health,
615
The Basics,
615
Climate as a Direct Cause of
Disease,
616
Communicable Diseases,
618
Other Diseases,
619
Climate and Human
Reproduction,
619
Indirect Effects of Climate
Change on Human Health,
619
Summary,
620
Migration,
620
The Basics,
620
Sensitivity,
622
Impact,
627
Adaptation,
628
Summary,
628
Domestic Tranquility,
629
Basics,
629
Sensitivity,
629
Impacts,
630
Adaptation,
631
Summary,
633
Questions Revisited,
633
Is Faster Change Worse Than
Slow?
633
Will Waiting to Make Policy and
to Act Drive Up Costs?
634
Are There Only Losers from
Climate Change?
634
Will the Most Important Impacts
Be on Farming and from the Rise of Sea Level?
634
Will Changes in Extreme Climatic
Conditions Be More Important Than Changes in Average
Conditions?
635
Are the Changes Unprecedented
from the Perspective of Adaptation?
635
Will Impacts Be Harder on Less
Developed Countries or on Developed Ones?
635
Are Some Hedges Clearly
Economical?
636
Notes,
636
References,
637
35 INDICES
653
Water,
654
Sea Level,
655
Ocean Currents,
655
Seasonal Events,
655
Page xxiii
Extreme Temperatures,
655
Note,
656
References,
656
36 FINAL WORDS
657
INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT BY A MEMBER OF THE
ADAPTATION PANEL
659
APPENDIXES
661
A Questions and Answers About
Greenhouse Warming
663
B Thinking About Time in the Context
of Global Climate Change
692
C Conservation Supply Curves for
Buildings
708
D Conservation Supply Curves for
Industrial Energy Use
717
E Conservation Supply Data for Three
Transportation Sectors
727
F Transportation System
Management
759
G Nuclear Energy
767
H A Solar Hydrogen System
775
I Biomass
779
J Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical
Generation Technologies
786
K Cost-Effectiveness of
Chlorofluorocarbon Phaseout—United States and Worldwide
792
L Agriculture
798
M Landfill Methane Reduction
808
N Population Growth and Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
809
O Deforestation Prevention
812
P Reforestation
814
Q Geoengineering Options
817
R Description of Economic Estimates
of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions
836
S Glossary
840
T Conversion Tables
847
U Prefaces from the Individual Panel
Reports
849
V Acknowledgments from the
Individual Panel Reports
855
W Background Information on Panel
Members and Professional Staff
858
INDEX
869
Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming
Policy Implications"
of
ouse Warming
Green
