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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming

Mitigation, Adaptation,
and the Science Base

Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1992

National Academy Press2101 Constitution Ave., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report is the result of work done by an independent panel appointed by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized its release to the public.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both consist of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.). Panel on
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.
Policy implications of greenhouse warming : mitigation,
adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public
Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of
Engineering, Institute of Medicine.
p. cm.
Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming—Synthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the same
title.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN 0-309-04386-7
1. Global warming—Government policy—United States.
2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric—Government policy—United States
3. Environmental policy—United States. I. Title.
QC98.8.G56C64        1992
363.73´87—dc20                                          92-11583
                                                                             CIP

This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock.image

Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

S308

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page iii

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Synthesis Panel

DANIEL J. EVANS (Chairman), Chairman, Daniel J. Evans & Associates, Seattle, Washington

ROBERT McCORMICK ADAMS, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.

GEORGE F. CARRIER, T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied Mathematics, Emeritus, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan

THOMAS H. LEE, Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.

WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Washington, Seattle

STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

MAURICE STRONG, Secretary General, United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, New York (resigned from panel February 1990)

SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England

VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Senior Consultant, Landers, Parsons and Uhlfelder, Tallahassee, Florida

PAUL E. WAGGONER, Distinguished Scientist, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven

Staff

ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director

DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer

NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist

MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page iv

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Effects Panel

GEORGE F. CARRIER (Chairman), T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

WILFRIED BRUTSAERT, Professor of Hydrology, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

ROBERT D. CESS, Leading Professor, State University of New York, Stony Brook

HERMAN CHERNOFF, Professor of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

ROBERT E. DICKINSON, Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson

JOHN IMBRIE, H.L. Doherty Professor of Oceanography, Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island

THOMAS B. KARL, Meteorologist, Climate Research and Applications, National Climate Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

MICHAEL C. MacCRACKEN, Physicist and Division Leader, Atmospheric and Geophysical Sciences, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California, Livermore

BERRIEN MOORE, Professor and Director, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham

Staff

ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director

DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer

NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist

MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page v

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation Panel

THOMAS H. LEE (Chairman), Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

PETER BREWER, Executive Director, Monterey Bay Aquarium and Research Center, Pacific Grove, California

RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

ROBERT CRANDALL, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT EVENSON, Professor of Economics, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, Connecticut

DOUGLAS FOY, Executive Director, Conservation Law Foundation, Boston, Massachusetts

ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan

RICHARD GARWIN, Fellow, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York, and Adjunct Professor of Physics, Columbia University, New York

JOSEPH GLAS, Director, Vice President, and General Manager, Fluorochemicals Division, E.I. du Pont, Wilmington, Delaware

KAI N. LEE, Professor and Director, Center for Environmental Studies, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts

GREGG MARLAND, Scientist, Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.

ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD, Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, and Director, Center for Building Science, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California

EDWARD S. RUBIN, Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Public Policy, and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

MILTON RUSSELL, Professor of Economics and Senior Fellow, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and Collaborating Scientist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

EUGENE B. SKOLNIKOFF, Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

THOMAS H. STIX, Professor, Department of Astrophysics and Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

EDITH BROWN WEISS, Professor of Law, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. (resigned from panel October 1990)

Staff

ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director

DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer

NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist

MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page vi

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Adaptation Panel

PAUL E. WAGGONER (Chairman), Distinguished Scientist, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, Connecticut

JESSE H. AUSUBEL, Fellow in Science and Public Policy, The Rockefeller University, New York

CLARK BINKLEY, Dean, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

MARY M. KRITZ, Professor of Development Sociology and Associate Director, Population and Development Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University professor, The Rockefeller University, New York

WILLIAM LEWIS, Partner, McKinsey and Company, Washington, D.C.

JON C. LIEBMAN, Professor of Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering Department, University of Illinois, Urbana

JANE LUBCHENCO, Professor, Department of Zoology, Oregon State University, Corvallis

WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Environmental Studies, University of Washington, Seattle

WILLIAM E. RIEBSAME, Director, Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, University of Colorado, Boulder

NORMAN J. ROSENBERG, Senior Fellow and Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

DANIEL P. SHEER, President, Water Resources Management, Columbia, Maryland

SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England

Staff

ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director

DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer

NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist

MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page vii

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

CORNELIUS J. PINGS (Chairman), Provost and Senior Vice President of Academic Affairs, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California

NORMAN ABRAMSON,* former Executive Vice President, Southwest Research Institute

LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Maria Moors Cabot Professor of Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

STUART BONDURANT, Professor and Dean, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

ROBERT A. BURT, South Mayd Professor of Law, Yale Law School, New Haven, Connecticut

ALBERT M. CLOGSTON, Member, Center for Material Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York

HARRY B. GRAY, Arnold O. Beckman Professor of Chemistry, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena

WILLIAM G. HOWARD, JR., Scottsdale, Arizona

RICHARD J. JOHNS, † Massey Professor and Director, Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

JOHN L. McLUCAS, Aerospace Consultant, Alexandria, Virginia

C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Executive Director of Research, Materials Science Engineering and Academic Affairs Division, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey

FRANK PRESS (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.

MAXINE F. SINGER, † President, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT M. SOLOW, Institute Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

H. GUYFORD STEVER, Science Advisor, Washington, D.C.

KENNETH I. SHINE (Ex-Officio), President, Institute of Medicine, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT M. WHITE (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C.

Staff

LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Executive Director

BARBARA A. CANDLAND, Administrative Assistant

*Term expired 6/30/90.

†Term expired 6/30/91.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page viii

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) is a joint committee of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies.

The study reported here was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It also received support from the National Research Council Fund, a pool of private, discretionary, nonfederal funds that is used to support a program of Academy studies of national issues in which science and technology figure significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from a consortium of private foundations, including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Academy Industry Program, which seeks annual contributions from companies that are concerned with the health of U.S. science and technology and with public policy issues with technological content.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page ix

Preface

Greenhouse gases and global warming have received increasing attention in recent years. The identification of the antarctic ozone hole in 1985 combined with the hot, dry summer of 1988 in North America to provide the drama that seems to be required for capturing national media coverage. Emerging scientific results, including findings about greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, added to the interest.

One consequence was congressional action. The HUD-Independent Agencies Appropriations Act of 1988 (House Report 100-701:26) called for

[an] NAS study on global climate change. This study should establish the scientific consensus on the rate and magnitude of climate change, estimate the projected impacts, and evaluate policy options for mitigating and responding to such changes. The need for and utility of improved temperature monitoring capabilities should also be examined, as resources permit.

According to subsequent advice received from members of Congress, the study was to focus on radiatively active trace gases from human sources, or "greenhouse warming." This report combines in a single volume the products of that study.

The study was conducted under the auspices of the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, a unit of the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The study involved nearly 50 experts, including scientists as well as individuals with experience in government, private industry, and public interest organizations.

The work of the study was conducted by four panels. The Synthesis Panel (whose membership is listed on page iii) was charged with developing overall findings and recommendations. The Effects Panel (whose membership is listed on page iv) examined what is known about changing climatic

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page x

conditions and related effects. The Mitigation Panel (whose membership is listed on page v) looked at options for reducing or reversing the onset of potential global warming. The Adaptation Panel (whose membership is listed on page vi) assessed the impacts of possible climate change on human and ecologic systems and the policies that could help people and natural systems adapt to those changes.

The panels conducted their analyses simultaneously between September 1989 and January 1991. The chairmen of the Effects, Mitigation, and Adaptation panels were members of the Synthesis Panel. Several members of the Synthesis Panel also were members of other panels. In its deliberations, however, the Synthesis Panel considered more than just the reports of the other panels. It also heard from experts with a range of views on the policy relevance of computer simulation models, widely held to be the best available tools for projecting climate change, and of economic models used to assess consequences of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The study also drew upon the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international effort released during the course of the study. Several members of the various study panels also contributed to that effort. Finally, the study drew upon other Academy studies. For example, in its examination of sea level, the panel used analyses from the following reports: Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level: Effects of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change (National Academy Press, 1985); Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications (National Academy Press, 1987); and Sea-Level Change (National Academy Press, 1990). The findings and recommendations of the Synthesis Panel are thus much more than a summary of the assessments performed by the other three panels. They contain analysis that goes beyond the topics covered by the other panels.

About eight months elapsed between the initial release of the report of the Synthesis Panel and the time at which this document went to press. The response to that report and to the prepublication documents prepared by the other panels has been gratifying. Our findings and recommendations and the analyses upon which they are based have been presented to members of Congress and officials in the federal administration. They have been distributed to officials and interested individuals in other countries. Many news stories have referred to our work. We believe the study has already helped guide the national debate and demonstrated a rational approach to evaluating possible responses. We hope this document will continue to do so.

The report identifies what should be done now to counter potential greenhouse warming or deal with its likely consequences. The recommendations, if followed, should provide the United States, and the rest of the world, with a rational basis for responding to this important concern.

The Honorable Daniel J. Evans, Chairman
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page xi

Contents

PART ONE: SYNTHESIS

1

1  INTRODUCTION

3

2  BACKGROUND

5

The Global Nature of Greenhouse Warming,

5

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Human Activities,

5

The Effects of World Population and Economic Growth,

6

Trends in Human Activities Affecting Greenhouse Gas Concentrations,

7

3  THE GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR EFFECTS

12

Earth's Radiation Balance,

14

What We Can Learn from Climate Models,

19

What We Can Learn from the Temperature Record,

22

Sea Level,

25

Possible Dramatic Changes,

26

Conclusions,

26

4  POLICY FRAMEWORK

29

Comparing Mitigation and Adaptation,

29

Assigning Values to Future Outcomes,

31

A Method for Comparing Options,

32

Assessing Mitigation Options,

33

Assessing Adaptation Options,

34

Other Factors Affecting Policy Choices About Greenhouse Warming,

35

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xii

5  ADAPTATION

36

Methods of Adaptation,

36

The Role of Innovation,

37

Assessing Impacts and Adaptive Capacity,

38

CO2 Fertilization of Green Plants,

38

Agriculture,

39

Managed Forests and Grasslands,

39

Natural Landscape,

39

Marine and Coastal Environments,

40

Water Resources,

40

Industry and Energy,

41

Tourism and Recreation,

41

Settlements and Coastal Structures,

41

Human Health,

41

Migration,

42

Political Tranquility,

42

Some Important Indices,

42

Evaluating Adaptation Options,

43

Adapting to Climate Change,

44

Activities with Low Sensitivity,

44

Activities That Are Sensitive But Can Be Adapted at a Cost,

44

Activities That Are Sensitive with Questionable Adjustment or Adaptation,

46

Cataclysmic Climatic Changes,

46

Conclusions,

47

6  MITIGATION

48

The Role of Cost-Effectiveness,

49

Technological Costing Versus Energy Modeling,

49

Planning a Cost-Effective Policy,

50

An Assessment of Mitigation Options in the United States,

52

Comparing Options,

61

Implementing Mitigation Options,

63

Conclusions,

64

7  INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

65

International Activities,

66

Future International Agreements,

67

Other Actions,

67

8  FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

68

Policy Considerations,

69

Capacities of Industrialized and Developing Countries,

69

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xiii

Taxes and Incentives,

70

Fundamental and Applied Research,

70

A Proposed Framework for Responding to the Threat of Greenhouse Warming,

71

General Conclusions,

72

9  RECOMMENDATIONS

73

Reducing or Offsetting Emissions of Greenhouse Gases,

73

Halocarbon Emissions,

74

Energy Policy,

74

Forest Offsets,

76

Enhancing Adaption to Greenhouse Warming,

77

Improving Knowledge for Future Decisions,

79

Evaluating Geoengineering Options,

81

Exercising International Leadership,

82

INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT BY A MEMBER OF THE SYNTHESIS PANEL

84

PART TWO: THE SCIENCE BASE

87

10  INTRODUCTION

89

Note,

90

References,

90

11  EMISSIONS RATES AND CONCENTRATIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES

91

Carbon Dioxide,

91

Methane,

94

Halocarbons,

95

Nitrous Oxide,

96

Notes,

97

References,

97

12  RADIATIVE FORCING AND FEEDBACK

100

The Heat Balance,

100

Radiative Forcing,

102

Radiative Feedback Mechanisms,

103

Water Vapor Feedback,

103

Snow-Ice Feedback,

106

Cloud Feedback,

106

References,

109

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xiv

13  MODEL PERFORMANCE

111

Note,

116

References,

116

14  THE CLIMATE RECORD

117

Temperature,

117

Uncertainties in the Record,

119

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics,

121

Changes in Extremes,

124

Temperatures Aloft,

125

Precipitation,

125

Improving Our Climate Observations,

129

References,

132

15  HYDROLOGY

135

Mechanisms Involving Land Surface Hydrology,

135

Precipitation,

135

Soil Moisture,

136

The Biosphere,

136

Impact of Greenhouse Warming on the Hydrologic Cycle,

137

References,

138

16  SEA LEVEL

140

Climate-Related Sea Level Change,

141

Evidence of Sea Level Rise over the Last 100 Years,

141

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise,

142

References,

143

17  A GREENHOUSE FORCING AND TEMPERATURE RISE ESTIMATION PROCEDURE

145

Results,

148

Implications,

151

References,

152

18  CONCLUSIONS

153

PART THREE: MITIGATION

155

19  INTRODUCTION

157

Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions,

158

Structure of Part Three,

166

Note,

170

References,

170

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xv

20  A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING MITIGATION OPTIONS

171

Background,

172

The Role of Cost-Effectiveness,

173

Energy Modeling,

174

The Nordhaus Study,

175

The Manne and Richels Study,

177

The Jorgenson and Wilcoxen Study,

178

The Edmonds and Reilly Study,

179

Problems in Comparing Options,

180

Structural Assumptions,

182

Uncertainties in Energy Modeling,

184

Uncertainties in Technological Costing,

185

Comparisons over Time,

186

Generic Alternatives in a Least-Cost Strategy,

189

Timing of Mitigation Policy and Transient Effects,

193

Uncertainty and Choice of Parameters,

194

Conclusions,

195

Note,

198

References,

198

21  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT

201

Recent Trends,

201

Efficiency Potential,

204

Recent Studies,

204

Calculating Efficiency Potential on Supply Curves,

207

Aggregate Annual Savings: $10 Billion to $37 Billion,

210

Transforming Electricity to Carbon,

213

Energy Efficiency Measures,

214

White Surfaces and Vegetation,

216

Electrical Appliances,

216

Building Shell Efficiency,

219

Potential Fossil Fuel Savings in Buildings: $20 Billion per Year,

220

Fuel Switching,

221

New Buildings,

222

Summary of Potential Savings in the Buildings Sector,

223

Barriers to Implementation,

225

Policy Options,

227

Direct Investment in Efficiency by Utilities,

227

Appliance Efficiency Standards and Building Codes,

233

Government Subsidies and Tax Policy,

234

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xvi

Direct Governmental Control,

234

Public Education,

235

International Implications,

236

Other Benefits and Costs,

237

Research and Development Needs,

238

Conclusions,

239

Notes,

241

References,

242

22  INDUSTRIAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT

248

Recent Trends,

250

Effects of Structural Changes,

252

Effects of Efficiency Improvements,

253

Emission Control Methods,

256

Fuel and Energy Switching,

256

Energy Conservation Measures,

259

Changes in Process Design,

269

Macroeconomic Structural Changes,

270

Barriers to Implementation,

271

Policy Options,

272

Fuel Taxes,

272

Efficiency Incentives,

273

Investment Tax Credits,

273

Research and Development Needs,

279

Conclusions,

279

Notes,

283

References,

283

23  TRANSPORATION ENERGY MANAGEMENT

286

Vehicle Efficiency,

286

Recent Trends,

287

Emission Control Methods,

289

Barriers to Implementation,

298

Policy Options,

301

Alternative Transportation Fuels,

304

Emission Control Methods,

304

Barriers to Implementation,

309

Policy Options,

310

Transportation System Management,

310

Recent Trends,

310

Emission Control Methods,

311

Barriers to Implementation,

312

Policy Options,

314

Page xvii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page xvii

Other Benefits and Costs,

320

Research and Development Needs,

322

Conclusions,

323

Notes,

325

References,

325

24  ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEMS

330

Recent Trends,

333

Emission Control Methods,

335

Electricity Generation,

336

Integrated Energy Systems,

344

Cost-Effectiveness,

353

Barriers to Implementation

357

Policy Options,

367

Other Benefits and Costs,

368

Research and Development Needs,

369

Conclusions,

371

Notes,

372

References,

372

25  NONENERGY EMISSION REDUCTION

376

Halocarbons,

376

Recent Trends,

376

Emission Control Methods,

383

Barriers to Implementation,

389

Policy Options,

390

Other Benefits and Costs,

392

Research and Development,

392

Conclusions,

393

Agriculture,

393

Methane,

394

Recent Trends,

395

Emission Control Methods,

395

Barriers to Implementation,

398

Policy Options,

399

Nitrous Oxide,

402

Recent Trends,

402

Emission Control Options,

402

Barriers to Implementation,

403

Policy Options,

403

Research and Development,

404

Conclusions,

404

Landfill Methane,

405

Page xviii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page xviii

Recent Trends,

406

Emission Control Methods,

407

Barriers to Implementation,

410

Policy Options,

410

Other Benefits and Costs,

411

Research and Development,

411

Conclusions,

411

Note,

412

References,

412

26  Population

414

Recent Trends,

414

Population Programs as an Emission Control Method,

416

Barriers to Implementation,

418

Policy Options,

420

Other Benefits and Costs,

421

Research and Development,

421

Conclusions,

421

References,

422

27  DEFORESTATION

424

Recent Trends,

424

Emission Control Methods,

425

Barriers to Implementation,

428

Policy Options,

429

Other Benefits and Costs,

430

Research and Development,

430

Conclusion,

431

Note,

431

References,

431

28  Geoengineering

433

Reforestation,

437

Recent Trends,

437

Storing Carbon in Trees,

439

Obstacles to Implementation,

441

Policy Options,

441

Other Benefits and Costs,

442

Research and Development,

442

Conclusions,

442

Increasing Ocean Absorption of Carbon Dioxide,

442

The Approach,

442

Cost Estimates,

444

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page xix

Some Problems,

446

Screening Out Some Sunlight,

447

Estimating Screen Parameters,

447

Space Mirrors,

448

Space Dust,

448

Stratospheric Dust,

448

Multiple Balloon Screen,

454

Changing Cloud Abundance,

454

Atmospheric Chlorofluorocarbon Removal,

457

Conclusions,

458

Notes,

460

References,

462

29  FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

465

U.S. Mitigation Policy,

465

Categories of Mitigation Options,

467

Category 1 Options,

474

Category 2 Options,

475

Category 3 Options,

481

Comparing the Different Mitigation Options,

481

Implementing Response Programs,

490

International Considerations,

494

Final Thoughts,

495

Note,

497

Reference,

497

PART FOUR: ADAPTATION

499

30  FINDINGS

501

Climate Change Is One of Many Changes,

501

Humanity and Nature Have the Potential to Adapt,

502

Some Indices Matter More,

503

Some Activities Have Low Sensitivity,

504

Some Activities Are Sensitive But Can Be Adapted at a Cost,

505

Some Activities Are Sensitive and Their Adaptation or Adjustment Is Questionable,

506

The Impacts of Some Conceivable Climate Changes Are Large But Cannot Be Assessed,

507

References,

507

31  RECOMMENDATIONS

508

Improve Information and Analysis,

508

Assess Actual Climatic Impacts,

508

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page xx

Perform Research and Development on Adaptation for Climate Change,

508

Monitor the Climate and Forecast the Weather,

510

Improve Institutions,

510

Consider Efforts to Advance Regional Mobility of People, Capital, and Goods,

510

Build Effective Government,

511

Promote Markets,

511

Improve Investments,

512

Preserve Biological Diversity,

513

Cope with Present Variability,

513

Remember Long-Lived Facilities and Preservation of Heritage,

514

Help Others,

514

32  ISSUES, ASSUMPTIONS, AND VALUES

515

Definitions,

515

Assumptions,

517

Economic and Ethical Values,

521

Notes,

523

References,

523

33  METHODS AND TOOLS

525

Methods of Adaptation,

525

Adjustment by Nature,

525

Adaptation by Humanity,

527

The Tools of Innovation,

530

Making Decisions in an Uncertain World,

534

Partial Justifications and Multiple Goals,

537

Criteria for Using the Tools of Government,

538

References,

539

34  SENSITIVITIES, IMAPCTS, AND ADAPTATIONS

541

Primary Production of Organic Matter,

551

Why This Subject,

551

Photosynthesis,

551

Leaf Pores,

551

Some Initial Reasoning,

552

Limiting Factors,

553

Limitation on Experiments,

554

Observations Outdoors,

555

Summary,

555

Farming,

556

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page xxi

Concentrate on Crops,

556

Crop Sensitivity to Climate,

556

Natural Resources,

557

Estimating Sensitivity,

557

Estimating Impacts,

560

Adaptation of Food Production,

561

Summary,

566

Forests and Grasslands,

567

Concentrate on the Managed Trees,

567

Sensitivities of Forests,

569

Estimating Impacts,

570

Adaptation,

571

Summary,

575

The Natural Landscape,

575

Difference from Farming and Forestry,

575

Sensitivities,

576

Calculating Impacts,

577

Adaptation,

578

Summary,

582

The Marine and Coastal Environment,

582

The Basics,

583

Sensitivities and Impacts for Coastal Habitats,

584

Sensitivities and Impacts for Ocean Habitats,

589

Adaptation,

590

Summary,

591

Water Resources,

592

The Basics,

592

Sensitivity of Water Resources to Climate,

592

Impact,

594

How Water Can Be Managed,

595

How Water Has Been Managed,

597

Summary,

599

Industry and Energy,

599

Basics,

599

Sensitivity of Electric Power Generation,

601

Estimating Impacts,

602

Adaptation,

605

Summary,

607

Tourism and Recreation,

607

Settlements and Coastal Structures,

608

The Basics,

608

Sensitivities,

608

Impacts,

609

Page xxii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xxii

Adaptations,

611

When to Adapt,

614

Summary,

614

Health,

615

The Basics,

615

Climate as a Direct Cause of Disease,

616

Communicable Diseases,

618

Other Diseases,

619

Climate and Human Reproduction,

619

Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Human Health,

619

Summary,

620

Migration,

620

The Basics,

620

Sensitivity,

622

Impact,

627

Adaptation,

628

Summary,

628

Domestic Tranquility,

629

Basics,

629

Sensitivity,

629

Impacts,

630

Adaptation,

631

Summary,

633

Questions Revisited,

633

Is Faster Change Worse Than Slow?

633

Will Waiting to Make Policy and to Act Drive Up Costs?

634

Are There Only Losers from Climate Change?

634

Will the Most Important Impacts Be on Farming and from the Rise of Sea Level?

634

Will Changes in Extreme Climatic Conditions Be More Important Than Changes in Average Conditions?

635

Are the Changes Unprecedented from the Perspective of Adaptation?

635

Will Impacts Be Harder on Less Developed Countries or on Developed Ones?

635

Are Some Hedges Clearly Economical?

636

Notes,

636

References,

637

35  INDICES

653

Water,

654

Sea Level,

655

Ocean Currents,

655

Seasonal Events,

655

Page xxiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page xxiii

Extreme Temperatures,

655

Note,

656

References,

656

36  FINAL WORDS

657

INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT BY A MEMBER OF THE ADAPTATION PANEL

659

APPENDIXES

661

A  Questions and Answers About Greenhouse Warming

663

B  Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change

692

C  Conservation Supply Curves for Buildings

708

D  Conservation Supply Curves for Industrial Energy Use

717

E  Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors

727

F  Transportation System Management

759

G  Nuclear Energy

767

H  A Solar Hydrogen System

775

I  Biomass

779

J  Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical Generation Technologies

786

K  Cost-Effectiveness of Chlorofluorocarbon Phaseout—United States and Worldwide

792

L  Agriculture

798

M  Landfill Methane Reduction

808

N  Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

809

O  Deforestation Prevention

812

P  Reforestation

814

Q  Geoengineering Options

817

R  Description of Economic Estimates of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions

836

S  Glossary

840

T  Conversion Tables

847

U  Prefaces from the Individual Panel Reports

849

V  Acknowledgments from the Individual Panel Reports

855

W  Background Information on Panel Members and Professional Staff

858

INDEX

869

Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming

Page xxiv Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Global warming continues to gain importance on the international agenda and calls for action are heightening. Yet, there is still controversy over what must be done and what is needed to proceed.

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming describes the information necessary to make decisions about global warming resulting from atmospheric releases of radiatively active trace gases. The conclusions and recommendations include some unexpected results. The distinguished authoring committee provides specific advice for U.S. policy and addresses the need for an international response to potential greenhouse warming.

It offers a realistic view of gaps in the scientific understanding of greenhouse warming and how much effort and expense might be required to produce definitive answers.

The book presents methods for assessing options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, offset emissions, and assist humans and unmanaged systems of plants and animals to adjust to the consequences of global warming.

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