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Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming

Mitigation, Adaptation,
and the Science Base

Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1992

National Academy Press2101 Constitution Ave., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report is the result of work done by an independent panel appointed by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized its release to the public.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both consist of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.). Panel on
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.
Policy implications of greenhouse warming : mitigation,
adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public
Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of
Engineering, Institute of Medicine.
p. cm.
Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming—Synthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the same
title.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN 0-309-04386-7
1. Global warming—Government policy—United States.
2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric—Government policy—United States
3. Environmental policy—United States. I. Title.
QC98.8.G56C64        1992
363.73´87—dc20                                          92-11583
                                                                             CIP

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Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

S308

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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 National Academy Press • 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report is the result of work done by an independent panel appointed by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized its release to the public. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both consist of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.). Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Policy implications of greenhouse warming : mitigation, adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine. p. cm. Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming—Synthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the same title. Includes bibliographical references and indexes. ISBN 0-309-04386-7 1. Global warming—Government policy—United States. 2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric—Government policy—United States 3. Environmental policy—United States. I. Title. QC98.8.G56C64        1992 363.73´87—dc20                                          92-11583                                                                              CIP This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock.image Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. S308 Printed in the United States of America

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance This report is the result of work done by an independent panel appointed by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized its release to the public. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both consist of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.~. Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Policy implications of greenhouse warming: mitigation, adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine. p. cm. Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Synthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the same title. Includes bibliographical references and indexes. ISBN 0-309-04386-7 1. Global warming Government policy-United States. 2. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric Government policy- United States 3. Environmental policy-United States. I. Title. QC981.8.G56C64 1992 363.73'87 dc20 This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock. 0,' 92-11583 CIP Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. S308 Printed in the United States of America

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Page iii Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Synthesis Panel DANIEL J. EVANS (Chairman), Chairman, Daniel J. Evans & Associates, Seattle, Washington ROBERT McCORMICK ADAMS, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C. GEORGE F. CARRIER, T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied Mathematics, Emeritus, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan THOMAS H. LEE, Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Washington, Seattle STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado MAURICE STRONG, Secretary General, United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, New York (resigned from panel February 1990) SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Senior Consultant, Landers, Parsons and Uhlfelder, Tallahassee, Florida PAUL E. WAGGONER, Distinguished Scientist, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven Staff ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

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Page iv Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Effects Panel GEORGE F. CARRIER (Chairman), T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts WILFRIED BRUTSAERT, Professor of Hydrology, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York ROBERT D. CESS, Leading Professor, State University of New York, Stony Brook HERMAN CHERNOFF, Professor of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT E. DICKINSON, Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson JOHN IMBRIE, H.L. Doherty Professor of Oceanography, Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island THOMAS B. KARL, Meteorologist, Climate Research and Applications, National Climate Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina MICHAEL C. MacCRACKEN, Physicist and Division Leader, Atmospheric and Geophysical Sciences, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California, Livermore BERRIEN MOORE, Professor and Director, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham Staff ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

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Page v Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation Panel THOMAS H. LEE (Chairman), Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge PETER BREWER, Executive Director, Monterey Bay Aquarium and Research Center, Pacific Grove, California RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT CRANDALL, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. ROBERT EVENSON, Professor of Economics, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, Connecticut DOUGLAS FOY, Executive Director, Conservation Law Foundation, Boston, Massachusetts ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan RICHARD GARWIN, Fellow, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York, and Adjunct Professor of Physics, Columbia University, New York JOSEPH GLAS, Director, Vice President, and General Manager, Fluorochemicals Division, E.I. du Pont, Wilmington, Delaware KAI N. LEE, Professor and Director, Center for Environmental Studies, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts GREGG MARLAND, Scientist, Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD, Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, and Director, Center for Building Science, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California EDWARD S. RUBIN, Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Public Policy, and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MILTON RUSSELL, Professor of Economics and Senior Fellow, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and Collaborating Scientist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado EUGENE B. SKOLNIKOFF, Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge THOMAS H. STIX, Professor, Department of Astrophysics and Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey EDITH BROWN WEISS, Professor of Law, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. (resigned from panel October 1990) Staff ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

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Page vi Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Adaptation Panel PAUL E. WAGGONER (Chairman), Distinguished Scientist, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, Connecticut JESSE H. AUSUBEL, Fellow in Science and Public Policy, The Rockefeller University, New York CLARK BINKLEY, Dean, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada MARY M. KRITZ, Professor of Development Sociology and Associate Director, Population and Development Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University professor, The Rockefeller University, New York WILLIAM LEWIS, Partner, McKinsey and Company, Washington, D.C. JON C. LIEBMAN, Professor of Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering Department, University of Illinois, Urbana JANE LUBCHENCO, Professor, Department of Zoology, Oregon State University, Corvallis WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Environmental Studies, University of Washington, Seattle WILLIAM E. RIEBSAME, Director, Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, University of Colorado, Boulder NORMAN J. ROSENBERG, Senior Fellow and Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. DANIEL P. SHEER, President, Water Resources Management, Columbia, Maryland SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England Staff ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary

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Page vii Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy CORNELIUS J. PINGS (Chairman), Provost and Senior Vice President of Academic Affairs, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California NORMAN ABRAMSON,* former Executive Vice President, Southwest Research Institute LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Maria Moors Cabot Professor of Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts STUART BONDURANT, Professor and Dean, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill ROBERT A. BURT, South Mayd Professor of Law, Yale Law School, New Haven, Connecticut ALBERT M. CLOGSTON, Member, Center for Material Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York HARRY B. GRAY, Arnold O. Beckman Professor of Chemistry, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena WILLIAM G. HOWARD, JR., Scottsdale, Arizona RICHARD J. JOHNS, † Massey Professor and Director, Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JOHN L. McLUCAS, Aerospace Consultant, Alexandria, Virginia C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Executive Director of Research, Materials Science Engineering and Academic Affairs Division, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey FRANK PRESS (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. MAXINE F. SINGER, † President, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C. ROBERT M. SOLOW, Institute Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge H. GUYFORD STEVER, Science Advisor, Washington, D.C. KENNETH I. SHINE (Ex-Officio), President, Institute of Medicine, Washington, D.C. ROBERT M. WHITE (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C. Staff LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Executive Director BARBARA A. CANDLAND, Administrative Assistant *Term expired 6/30/90. †Term expired 6/30/91.

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Page viii The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) is a joint committee of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies. The study reported here was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It also received support from the National Research Council Fund, a pool of private, discretionary, nonfederal funds that is used to support a program of Academy studies of national issues in which science and technology figure significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from a consortium of private foundations, including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Academy Industry Program, which seeks annual contributions from companies that are concerned with the health of U.S. science and technology and with public policy issues with technological content.

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Page ix Preface Greenhouse gases and global warming have received increasing attention in recent years. The identification of the antarctic ozone hole in 1985 combined with the hot, dry summer of 1988 in North America to provide the drama that seems to be required for capturing national media coverage. Emerging scientific results, including findings about greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, added to the interest. One consequence was congressional action. The HUD-Independent Agencies Appropriations Act of 1988 (House Report 100-701:26) called for [an] NAS study on global climate change. This study should establish the scientific consensus on the rate and magnitude of climate change, estimate the projected impacts, and evaluate policy options for mitigating and responding to such changes. The need for and utility of improved temperature monitoring capabilities should also be examined, as resources permit. According to subsequent advice received from members of Congress, the study was to focus on radiatively active trace gases from human sources, or "greenhouse warming." This report combines in a single volume the products of that study. The study was conducted under the auspices of the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, a unit of the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The study involved nearly 50 experts, including scientists as well as individuals with experience in government, private industry, and public interest organizations. The work of the study was conducted by four panels. The Synthesis Panel (whose membership is listed on page iii) was charged with developing overall findings and recommendations. The Effects Panel (whose membership is listed on page iv) examined what is known about changing climatic

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Page x conditions and related effects. The Mitigation Panel (whose membership is listed on page v) looked at options for reducing or reversing the onset of potential global warming. The Adaptation Panel (whose membership is listed on page vi) assessed the impacts of possible climate change on human and ecologic systems and the policies that could help people and natural systems adapt to those changes. The panels conducted their analyses simultaneously between September 1989 and January 1991. The chairmen of the Effects, Mitigation, and Adaptation panels were members of the Synthesis Panel. Several members of the Synthesis Panel also were members of other panels. In its deliberations, however, the Synthesis Panel considered more than just the reports of the other panels. It also heard from experts with a range of views on the policy relevance of computer simulation models, widely held to be the best available tools for projecting climate change, and of economic models used to assess consequences of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The study also drew upon the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international effort released during the course of the study. Several members of the various study panels also contributed to that effort. Finally, the study drew upon other Academy studies. For example, in its examination of sea level, the panel used analyses from the following reports: Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level: Effects of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change (National Academy Press, 1985); Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications (National Academy Press, 1987); and Sea-Level Change (National Academy Press, 1990). The findings and recommendations of the Synthesis Panel are thus much more than a summary of the assessments performed by the other three panels. They contain analysis that goes beyond the topics covered by the other panels. About eight months elapsed between the initial release of the report of the Synthesis Panel and the time at which this document went to press. The response to that report and to the prepublication documents prepared by the other panels has been gratifying. Our findings and recommendations and the analyses upon which they are based have been presented to members of Congress and officials in the federal administration. They have been distributed to officials and interested individuals in other countries. Many news stories have referred to our work. We believe the study has already helped guide the national debate and demonstrated a rational approach to evaluating possible responses. We hope this document will continue to do so. The report identifies what should be done now to counter potential greenhouse warming or deal with its likely consequences. The recommendations, if followed, should provide the United States, and the rest of the world, with a rational basis for responding to this important concern. The Honorable Daniel J. Evans, Chairman Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming

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Page xi Contents PART ONE: SYNTHESIS 1 1  INTRODUCTION 3 2  BACKGROUND 5 The Global Nature of Greenhouse Warming, 5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Human Activities, 5 The Effects of World Population and Economic Growth, 6 Trends in Human Activities Affecting Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, 7 3  THE GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR EFFECTS 12 Earth's Radiation Balance, 14 What We Can Learn from Climate Models, 19 What We Can Learn from the Temperature Record, 22 Sea Level, 25 Possible Dramatic Changes, 26 Conclusions, 26 4  POLICY FRAMEWORK 29 Comparing Mitigation and Adaptation, 29 Assigning Values to Future Outcomes, 31 A Method for Comparing Options, 32 Assessing Mitigation Options, 33 Assessing Adaptation Options, 34 Other Factors Affecting Policy Choices About Greenhouse Warming, 35

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Page xvi Direct Governmental Control, 234 Public Education, 235 International Implications, 236 Other Benefits and Costs, 237 Research and Development Needs, 238 Conclusions, 239 Notes, 241 References, 242 22  INDUSTRIAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT 248 Recent Trends, 250 Effects of Structural Changes, 252 Effects of Efficiency Improvements, 253 Emission Control Methods, 256 Fuel and Energy Switching, 256 Energy Conservation Measures, 259 Changes in Process Design, 269 Macroeconomic Structural Changes, 270 Barriers to Implementation, 271 Policy Options, 272 Fuel Taxes, 272 Efficiency Incentives, 273 Investment Tax Credits, 273 Research and Development Needs, 279 Conclusions, 279 Notes, 283 References, 283 23  TRANSPORATION ENERGY MANAGEMENT 286 Vehicle Efficiency, 286 Recent Trends, 287 Emission Control Methods, 289 Barriers to Implementation, 298 Policy Options, 301 Alternative Transportation Fuels, 304 Emission Control Methods, 304 Barriers to Implementation, 309 Policy Options, 310 Transportation System Management, 310 Recent Trends, 310 Emission Control Methods, 311 Barriers to Implementation, 312 Policy Options, 314

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Page xvii Other Benefits and Costs, 320 Research and Development Needs, 322 Conclusions, 323 Notes, 325 References, 325 24  ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEMS 330 Recent Trends, 333 Emission Control Methods, 335 Electricity Generation, 336 Integrated Energy Systems, 344 Cost-Effectiveness, 353 Barriers to Implementation 357 Policy Options, 367 Other Benefits and Costs, 368 Research and Development Needs, 369 Conclusions, 371 Notes, 372 References, 372 25  NONENERGY EMISSION REDUCTION 376 Halocarbons, 376 Recent Trends, 376 Emission Control Methods, 383 Barriers to Implementation, 389 Policy Options, 390 Other Benefits and Costs, 392 Research and Development, 392 Conclusions, 393 Agriculture, 393 Methane, 394 Recent Trends, 395 Emission Control Methods, 395 Barriers to Implementation, 398 Policy Options, 399 Nitrous Oxide, 402 Recent Trends, 402 Emission Control Options, 402 Barriers to Implementation, 403 Policy Options, 403 Research and Development, 404 Conclusions, 404 Landfill Methane, 405

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Page xviii Recent Trends, 406 Emission Control Methods, 407 Barriers to Implementation, 410 Policy Options, 410 Other Benefits and Costs, 411 Research and Development, 411 Conclusions, 411 Note, 412 References, 412 26  Population 414 Recent Trends, 414 Population Programs as an Emission Control Method, 416 Barriers to Implementation, 418 Policy Options, 420 Other Benefits and Costs, 421 Research and Development, 421 Conclusions, 421 References, 422 27  DEFORESTATION 424 Recent Trends, 424 Emission Control Methods, 425 Barriers to Implementation, 428 Policy Options, 429 Other Benefits and Costs, 430 Research and Development, 430 Conclusion, 431 Note, 431 References, 431 28  Geoengineering 433 Reforestation, 437 Recent Trends, 437 Storing Carbon in Trees, 439 Obstacles to Implementation, 441 Policy Options, 441 Other Benefits and Costs, 442 Research and Development, 442 Conclusions, 442 Increasing Ocean Absorption of Carbon Dioxide, 442 The Approach, 442 Cost Estimates, 444

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Page xix Some Problems, 446 Screening Out Some Sunlight, 447 Estimating Screen Parameters, 447 Space Mirrors, 448 Space Dust, 448 Stratospheric Dust, 448 Multiple Balloon Screen, 454 Changing Cloud Abundance, 454 Atmospheric Chlorofluorocarbon Removal, 457 Conclusions, 458 Notes, 460 References, 462 29  FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 465 U.S. Mitigation Policy, 465 Categories of Mitigation Options, 467 Category 1 Options, 474 Category 2 Options, 475 Category 3 Options, 481 Comparing the Different Mitigation Options, 481 Implementing Response Programs, 490 International Considerations, 494 Final Thoughts, 495 Note, 497 Reference, 497 PART FOUR: ADAPTATION 499 30  FINDINGS 501 Climate Change Is One of Many Changes, 501 Humanity and Nature Have the Potential to Adapt, 502 Some Indices Matter More, 503 Some Activities Have Low Sensitivity, 504 Some Activities Are Sensitive But Can Be Adapted at a Cost, 505 Some Activities Are Sensitive and Their Adaptation or Adjustment Is Questionable, 506 The Impacts of Some Conceivable Climate Changes Are Large But Cannot Be Assessed, 507 References, 507 31  RECOMMENDATIONS 508 Improve Information and Analysis, 508 Assess Actual Climatic Impacts, 508

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Page xx Perform Research and Development on Adaptation for Climate Change, 508 Monitor the Climate and Forecast the Weather, 510 Improve Institutions, 510 Consider Efforts to Advance Regional Mobility of People, Capital, and Goods, 510 Build Effective Government, 511 Promote Markets, 511 Improve Investments, 512 Preserve Biological Diversity, 513 Cope with Present Variability, 513 Remember Long-Lived Facilities and Preservation of Heritage, 514 Help Others, 514 32  ISSUES, ASSUMPTIONS, AND VALUES 515 Definitions, 515 Assumptions, 517 Economic and Ethical Values, 521 Notes, 523 References, 523 33  METHODS AND TOOLS 525 Methods of Adaptation, 525 Adjustment by Nature, 525 Adaptation by Humanity, 527 The Tools of Innovation, 530 Making Decisions in an Uncertain World, 534 Partial Justifications and Multiple Goals, 537 Criteria for Using the Tools of Government, 538 References, 539 34  SENSITIVITIES, IMAPCTS, AND ADAPTATIONS 541 Primary Production of Organic Matter, 551 Why This Subject, 551 Photosynthesis, 551 Leaf Pores, 551 Some Initial Reasoning, 552 Limiting Factors, 553 Limitation on Experiments, 554 Observations Outdoors, 555 Summary, 555 Farming, 556

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Page xxi Concentrate on Crops, 556 Crop Sensitivity to Climate, 556 Natural Resources, 557 Estimating Sensitivity, 557 Estimating Impacts, 560 Adaptation of Food Production, 561 Summary, 566 Forests and Grasslands, 567 Concentrate on the Managed Trees, 567 Sensitivities of Forests, 569 Estimating Impacts, 570 Adaptation, 571 Summary, 575 The Natural Landscape, 575 Difference from Farming and Forestry, 575 Sensitivities, 576 Calculating Impacts, 577 Adaptation, 578 Summary, 582 The Marine and Coastal Environment, 582 The Basics, 583 Sensitivities and Impacts for Coastal Habitats, 584 Sensitivities and Impacts for Ocean Habitats, 589 Adaptation, 590 Summary, 591 Water Resources, 592 The Basics, 592 Sensitivity of Water Resources to Climate, 592 Impact, 594 How Water Can Be Managed, 595 How Water Has Been Managed, 597 Summary, 599 Industry and Energy, 599 Basics, 599 Sensitivity of Electric Power Generation, 601 Estimating Impacts, 602 Adaptation, 605 Summary, 607 Tourism and Recreation, 607 Settlements and Coastal Structures, 608 The Basics, 608 Sensitivities, 608 Impacts, 609

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Page xxii Adaptations, 611 When to Adapt, 614 Summary, 614 Health, 615 The Basics, 615 Climate as a Direct Cause of Disease, 616 Communicable Diseases, 618 Other Diseases, 619 Climate and Human Reproduction, 619 Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Human Health, 619 Summary, 620 Migration, 620 The Basics, 620 Sensitivity, 622 Impact, 627 Adaptation, 628 Summary, 628 Domestic Tranquility, 629 Basics, 629 Sensitivity, 629 Impacts, 630 Adaptation, 631 Summary, 633 Questions Revisited, 633 Is Faster Change Worse Than Slow? 633 Will Waiting to Make Policy and to Act Drive Up Costs? 634 Are There Only Losers from Climate Change? 634 Will the Most Important Impacts Be on Farming and from the Rise of Sea Level? 634 Will Changes in Extreme Climatic Conditions Be More Important Than Changes in Average Conditions? 635 Are the Changes Unprecedented from the Perspective of Adaptation? 635 Will Impacts Be Harder on Less Developed Countries or on Developed Ones? 635 Are Some Hedges Clearly Economical? 636 Notes, 636 References, 637 35  INDICES 653 Water, 654 Sea Level, 655 Ocean Currents, 655 Seasonal Events, 655

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Page xxiii Extreme Temperatures, 655 Note, 656 References, 656 36  FINAL WORDS 657 INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT BY A MEMBER OF THE ADAPTATION PANEL 659 APPENDIXES 661 A  Questions and Answers About Greenhouse Warming 663 B  Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change 692 C  Conservation Supply Curves for Buildings 708 D  Conservation Supply Curves for Industrial Energy Use 717 E  Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors 727 F  Transportation System Management 759 G  Nuclear Energy 767 H  A Solar Hydrogen System 775 I  Biomass 779 J  Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical Generation Technologies 786 K  Cost-Effectiveness of Chlorofluorocarbon Phaseout—United States and Worldwide 792 L  Agriculture 798 M  Landfill Methane Reduction 808 N  Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 809 O  Deforestation Prevention 812 P  Reforestation 814 Q  Geoengineering Options 817 R  Description of Economic Estimates of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions 836 S  Glossary 840 T  Conversion Tables 847 U  Prefaces from the Individual Panel Reports 849 V  Acknowledgments from the Individual Panel Reports 855 W  Background Information on Panel Members and Professional Staff 858 INDEX 869 Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming

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