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the capital cost of the fleet is $2 × 1010. Amortized over 20 years, an annual
capital cost of $1 × 109 may
be used. The sulfur will cost another $0.6 × 109 per year, and $2 × 106 per ship per year may be allocated for
operating costs ($10,000 per operating day), to give a total cost
of $2 × 109 annually. Over
40 years (until 2030) this means $8 × 1010, or $1011. This continuously mitigates
˜103 Gt = 1012 t for a cost of $0.10/t of CO2. Of course, this continues to be a
yearly cost of $1 × 109/yr.
The SO2 could also be emitted
from power plants. These plants could be built in the Pacific Ocean
near the equator (hopefully on small deserted islands) and would
serve to furnish power for nearby locations (e.g., South America).
Transmission or use of the power in the form of refined materials
could be considered, or possibly the use of superconducting power
transmission systems. It is estimated that eight large power plants
using spiked coal would be required (with 4 times the normal amount
of sulfur) at a cost of $2 to $2.5 × 106 per plant. Most of the cost would be
borne by those buying the power, so the cost might be at most 10
percent per year (the interest on the investment), or a total of $2
× 109 per year (with the
above conversion, $2 × 109/3890 × 106
$0.0005/t CO2).
Comparison of the Cloudiness and
Proposed Cloud Condensation Nuclei Emissions with Current Estimates
in the Real Atmospher
Total U.S. SO2 emissions are 65.7
× 103 t per day, which is
roughly 2 times the amount calculated in the previous paragraph.
Consequently, there should already be some cloud-enhancing effects
evident in the northern hemisphere if Twomey and Wojciechowski's
hypothesis, as implemented by Albrecht, is correct. An examination
of available CCN data shows that the mean CCN concentration at
oceanic locations in the northern Atlantic is about 5 times higher
than at remote locations in the southern Pacific (see Schwartz
(1988), who, however, concludes that there is no discernible
contribution of anthropogenic SO2
emissions to the global cloud cover effect on planetary albedo or
temperature). Furthermore, several studies have examined trends in
cloudiness in the northern hemisphere and have all come to the same
conclusion: The total cloud amount has been increasing in the
northern hemisphere (study areas include United States, North
America, the North Atlantic, and Europe) since the early 1900s
(Henderson-Sellers, 1986, 1989; Changnon, 1981; Angell et al.,
1984; Warren et al., 1988). The largest increases in cloudiness in
the United States occurred from the 1930s to about 1950 and from
the mid-1960s to about 1980. The first period corresponds to a
period of rapid growth of U.S. SO2
emissions after the Depression and extends to the end of World War
II; the second period corresponds to the proliferation of tall
stacks. From 1965 to 1980 the mean effective stack height (physical
height of stack plus plume rise) of SO2