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Page 832
emissions doubled from about 300 to 600 m. This, of course,
increased the lifetime of discharged emissions in the atmosphere
and transformed the SO2 pollution
problem from primarily a local issue in many localities to a
long-range transport issue.
Between 1900 and 1980 the mean cloud cover over the conterminous
United States has increased about 10 percent (Henderson-Sellers,
1989), which should be more than sufficient to compensate for an
equivalent doubling of CO2. Because
CO2 increased only about 12 percent
during the same period, the net effect should have been a cooling.
However, analyses of temperature data in the northern hemisphere
over the same periods consistently indicate that the mean
temperature has risen about 0.5° to 0.7°C overall, but no
trend was evident in the conterminous United States (Jones et al.,
1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987; Hanson et al., 1989). This
suggests either that the effects of clouds are not understood, or
that other factors, such as the very poor data reliability for
cloudiness and the effect of cloud height, need to be
considered.
Wigley (1989) presents some crude calculations suggesting that
SO2/CCN-derived forcing could be
large enough to have offset any temperature increase due to CO2 in the northern hemisphere. Schneider
(1972) points out that SO2 emissions
are regionally heterogeneous, which would lead to long-wave forcing
anomalies that in turn could lead to long-wave anomalies plus
teleconnections. In any event, all of this is quite speculative and
underscores the fact that much is yet to be understood about the
causes of climate variations during the last century.
Impacts of Enhanced Acid
Deposition
One must now consider whether the injection of this much
additional SO2 into the atmosphere
will cause an acid deposition problem. It should be kept in mind
that the principal component of naturally occurring CCN is sulfate
formed from DMS emission from marine algae. Schwartz (1988) quotes
estimates of 16 to 40 × 1012
g/yr or perhaps about 25 × 109 kg/yr emitted from this source. The
addition about 6 × 109 kg/yr
is being considered, approximately 25 percent of the natural
amount, although locally much more than 30 percent may be added to
the amount naturally present. The oceans have an enormous buffering
capacity (Stumm and Morgan, 1970), so the additional rainout of
sulfate (especially after dilution through cloud dispersal and
droplet coalescence) seems unlikely to have any effect, even
locally, although there is clear disagreement on this point. The
principal concern is to avoid additional sulfate deposition over
land. With a 30 percent rainout per day, this could be ensured to a
90 percent level by operating about a week upwind of land. Such a
constraint would have to be added to the others already stated.