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Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force
FIGURE 6.2 New-think: integrated hierarchical families of models.
There have also been organizational problems. If the different models of such a hierarchy are owned by different organizations that only occasionally work together, the linkages are more imagined than real, and sometimes cynically constructed when real at all. This is a harsh judgment, and there have been some notable partial successes, but the panel believes the judgment is correct. 2
Figure 6.2 suggests an image of “new-think” on these matters. Although it may appear “common-sensical,” it represents a drastically different image than the one followed in the past and assumed appropriate by most in the analytic community. In this image, models at different levels of detail are designed together from the outset so that there is a true integration. Variables from one level “understand” variables at another. Second, models at any given level are designed to make use of data from other levels of resolution. Returning to the attrition example, if we know from historical evidence (and common sense) that attrition is self-limiting because commanders will not tolerate excessive attrition, then someone building a high-resolution model may need to design in corresponding decision rules that could be calibrated against macroscopic information on behaviors (which might be different for different nations' commanders and forces).
The main point here is that in building models and calibrating them we should be using all the knowledge available, regardless of resolution, and one should be attempting to make the family members consistent with each other.
2
For a review of such matters, see Davis and Hillestad (1993a,b). The latter mentions two efforts, one by the U.S. Air Force and one by the German IABG, that were reasonably successful in developing model families. Both efforts were tightly managed and were within a single organization. The fundamental difficulties in this domain are now recognized by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) and DARPA.
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