Internet Counts

Measuring the Impacts of the Internet

Office of International Affairs

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998



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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet Internet Counts Measuring the Impacts of the Internet Office of International Affairs National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Kenneth L. Kraemer, University of California, Irvine Michel J. Menou, CIDEGI James Poirot, National Academy of Engineering Vernon W. Ruttan, University of Minnesota John Schoneboom, American Association for the Advancement of Science Martha Stone, Moenston Associates While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-06090-7 A limited number of copies of this report are available from: Office of International Affairs National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet Contents     ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS   vi  1.   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1  2.   INTRODUCTION   4      Origin of the Study        Scope and Methodology    3.   IMPACT INDICATORS   12      Direct and Indirect Impacts        Positive and Negative, Intended and Unintended Impacts        Levels of Impacts        What are Indicators and Why Have Them?        Quantitative and Qualitative Indicators        Limitations and Qualifications of Impact Indicators        Causality        Impacts of “Nonuse”        Qualitative Studies    4.   INDICATORS OF INTERNET IMPACTS   20      Framework of Internet Supply and Demand        Indicators Related to the Environment for Internet Use        Supportive Economy and Infrastructure        Policy and Regulatory Environment        Indicators of Internet Supply        Quantity of Internet Service        Quality of Internet Service        Sustainability        Indicators of Internet Use        Costs of Internet Use        Quality of Internet Use        Indicators of Internet Content        Indicators of Impacts on Formal Organizations        Perceived Benefits of the Internet        Organizational Decisionmaking        Other Institutions        Indicators of Sectoral Impacts        Sectoral Use and Diffusion of Internet        Internet Impacts on Sectors and Their Related Developmental Goals        Education  

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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet      Private Sector        Government and Civil Society    5.   INTERNET DIFFUSION OR PATHS OF IMPACTS   64  6.   CONCLUSION AND CALL FOR CONTINUED RESEARCH   68     APPENDICES   72  A   Committee on Indicators of Internet Impacts on Development    B   List of Acronyms and Abbreviations    C   Indicators of Internet Impacts    D   Background and Context of the Internet in Africa    E   Site Visits and Meetings in Senegal, Ghana, and Kenya    F   Agenda: A Meeting on Indicators for Measuring the Impacts of Internet on Development    G   List of Participants  

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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet Acknowledgments The Committee on Indicators of Internet Impacts on Development defined its role in this study as a steering panel that would draw on the expertise of other researchers and analysts working in the areas of development, information technologies, and regional affairs. The committee is grateful for the assistance and advice it received throughout the course of the study from a number of individuals and organizations, many of which are cited in the text. In particular, the committee members would like to thank the Network Startup Resource Center, the Academy for Education Development, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The committee members would also like to thank the Bellanet Initiative, which hosted an on-line discussion of Internet indicators after the committee presented its initial findings at the Global Knowledge '97 conference. During their field research in Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal, the committee members received invaluable assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development missions and Leland Initiative coordinators. Lane Smith (Leland Initiative), who accompanied the committee in Ghana and Senegal, deserves special thanks. Thanks are given also to the many individuals in Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal who took time out of their busy schedules to discuss the Internet during the committee's visits. The committee gives special thanks to two individuals who contributed greatly to the research and writing of this report. Kelvin Wong (Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland) provided much of the extensive background material for the team and did the data collection and analysis in Kenya. Jon Eisenberg 's (National Research Council and AAAS Fellow) help as a member of the team was invaluable in adding a disciplined and expert technical perspective on all the committee's work.

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Internet Counts: Measuring the Impacts of the Internet Finally, the committee would like to thank the staff of the National Research Council. They especially wish to thank Inta Brikovskis for her tremendous energy and the intellectual contribution she made to drafting the report.