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Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate
Variability and Change
A Science Strategy
Panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century
Time Scales
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998
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Page ii
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the
report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard
for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-5-00015.
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations
expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-88439
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06098-2
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Box 285
Washington, DC 20055
800-624-6242
202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area)
http://www.nap.edu
COVER: The Day It Happened, the oil painting reproduced
on the cover of this book, is the work of Ilana Cernat of Bat-Yam,
Israel. Dr. Cernat is linked to the world of intermediate-scale
climate change through her son Michael Ghil, a member of the panel
on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. The Day
It Happened (1988) is one of several of her paintings that
express her concern for the future, particularly what sort of world
we will be leaving to the generations to come. A lawyer by training
and profession, Dr. Cernat began studying painting in her teens.
Her work has been exhibited in Romania, Hungary, Israel, and the
United States, and hangs in collections in other countries as well.
Her 1989 painting The Eye of the Storm appeared on the cover
of the 1995 NRC report on natural climate variability on
decade-to-century time scales.
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Page iii
PANEL ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON DECADE-TO-CENTURY TIME
SCALES
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON (Chair), Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York
DAVID S. BATTISTI, University of Washington, Seattle
RAYMOND S. BRADLEY, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
JULIA E. COLE, University of Colorado, Boulder
RANA A. FINE, University of Miami, Florida
MICHAEL GHIL, University of California, Los Angeles
YOCHANAN KUSHNIR, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia
University, Palisades, New York
SYUKURO MANABE, Earth Frontier Research System, Tokyo, Japan
MICHAEL S. McCARTNEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Massachusetts
M. PATRICK McCORMICK, Hampton University, Virginia
MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle
PIETER TANS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
Boulder, Colorado
LONNIE G. THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
MICHAEL WINTON, Princeton University, New Jersey
Staff
ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer (ending September 1, 1998)
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
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Page iv
CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE
THOMAS R. KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center,
Asheville, North Carolina
ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair), University of Arizona,
Tucson
MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado
BERT BOLIN, Osterskar, Sweden
JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia
JAMES E. HANSEN, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New
York, New York
PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey,
California
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Consortium for International Earth
Science Information Network, Palisades, New York
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of New Hampshire, Durham
STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University, Durham, North
Carolina
KARL E. TAYLOR, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Livermore, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
Maryland
Ex Officio Members
DOUGLAS G. MARTINS ON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of
Columbia University, Palisades, New York
W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Livermore, California
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder
Staff
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) (ending September 30,
1998)
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
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Page v
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University,
University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology
Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in
Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica,
Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer/Reports Officer (ending September
1, 1998)
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) (ending September 30,
1998)
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Administrative Associate
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Page vi
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia,
Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., St. George, Utah
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington,
D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British
Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee,
Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
California
Staff
ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Page vii
Preface
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
released its monumental scientific assessment on climate change.
This document presented, for the first time, a broad international
scientific perspective on the status of our understanding of global
climate change, focusing predominantly on anthropogenic change.
While first recognized as a scientific issue nearly 100 years ago
and the subject of many reports, this first attempt at producing a
comprehensive assessment of the problem was both timely and
energizing. It helped focus our collective scientific attention on
key issues, by identifying, among other things, critical gaps in
our understanding of the fundamental physics, chemistry, and
biology of global change.
One significant gap involved our meager understanding and
documentation of natural variability in the Earth's climate system
which provides a context for evaluating the significance of
human-induced changes. The climate change and variability that we
experience will be a commingling of the ever changing natural
climate state with any anthropogenic change. While we are
ultimately interested in understanding and predicting how climate
will change, regardless of the cause, an ability to differentiate
anthropogenic change from natural variability is fundamental to
help guide policy decisions, treaty negotiations, and adaptation
versus mitigation strategies. Without a clear understanding of how
climate has changed naturally in the past, and the mechanisms
involved, our ability to interpret any future change will be
significantly confounded and our ability to predict future change
severely curtailed.
Recognizing this gap, the Climate Research Committee of the
National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate, organized a workshop in 1992 involving the world's most
prominent climate researchers, to assess the state of understanding
of natural climate variability. The workshop focused on natural
climate change that occurs slowly, sometimes remaining almost
imperceptible for many years, decades, or even a century. These
"decade-to-century" (dec-cen) time scales are the same ones over
which anthropogenic climate change is expected to manifest itself,
and thus the ones most likely to confound our interpretation and
prediction of observed climate change as it relates to
anthropogenic change. The results of this workshop, elaborated and
published in a peer-reviewed National Academy of Science volume in
1995, showed considerable progress in our understanding of dec-cen
climate variability on a broad number of fronts.
At the same time the NRC workshop was being organized in the
United States, the Joint Scientific Committee, an international
scientific oversight body for guiding international climate
research under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP), called on a group of experts to consider possible future
directions for climate research. The results of their deliberations
were published in 1992 in a report entitled CLIVAR—A Study
of Climate Variability and Predictability. This document
proposed the need for a new internationally-coordinated,
interdisciplinary research program on climate variability and
predictability, with decade-to-century time scale variability
(natural and anthropogenic) playing a central role. As the science
plan for the CLIVAR program was being developed, the United States
Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also active in the
international process, began formalizing plans to advance the
development of a U.S. national science plan for addressing climate
variability and change on decade-to-century time scales. The
manifestation of these plans would contribute to the international
effort while clearly defining and articulating our own particular
national scientific interests. This led to the formation of the NRC
panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales (the
Dec-Cen panel).
The NRC's Climate Research Committee (CRC) is the U.S. national
committee to the WCRP. The Dec-Cen panel, as well as the
complementary Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) and
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) panels (addressing
shorter time scales and key processes), were established under the
CRC to interface with the WCRP and CLIVAR organizational
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Page viii
Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and
Change
A Science Strategy
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Page ix
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals
chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in
accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review
Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide
candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in
making the published report as sound as possible, and to ensure
that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the
integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the
following individuals for their participation in the review of this
report:
Russ E. Davis, University of California, San Diego
W. Lawrence Gates, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia,
Charlottesville
Upmanu Lall, Utah State University
Gerald A. Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Richard S. Stolarski, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
John M. Wallace, University of Washington
John E. Walsh, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Warren A. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric
Research
In addition, we appreciate the post-review material and comments
from Russ Davis, Robert Dickinson, Upmanu Lall, and Peter Niiler
that helped to provide a more balanced discussion in some key
areas. While the individuals listed above have provided
constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that
responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely
with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Page x
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National
Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of
science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
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Page xi
Contents
Executive Summary
1
1. Introduction
6
Society and a Varying Climate
System
6
A U.S. Dec-Cen Science Strategy
7
2. Climate Attributes That Influence
Society
9
Precipitation and Water
Availability
10
Temperature
11
Solar Radiation
15
Storms
17
Sea Level
20
Ecosystems
22
3. Modes of Climate Variability
25
Climate Patterns in the
Atmosphere
26
Other Patterns of Interest
28
Co-variability in the Climate System:
Coupled Patterns
28
The Role of Dec-Cen Variability in
Global Warming
35
Fundamental Issues and Questions
36
4. Mechanisms and Predictability
39
The Nature of Climate Prediction
39
Short-, Medium-, and Long-Range
Climate Prediction
40
Prediction and Mechanisms
41
The Uses of Climate Prediction
43
5. Climate-System Components
48
Atmospheric Composition and Radiative
Forcing
49
Atmospheric Circulation
62
Hydrologic Cycle
71
Ocean Circulation
80
Cryosphere
97
Land and Vegetation
106
6. Crosscutting Issues
111
Climate Information
111
Coupled-Model Development and
Infrastructure
120
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Page xii
Detection, Attribution, and
Simulation
122
Linkage Across Time Scales
123
7 Conclusions and Recommendations
124
References
126
Acronyms and Abbreviations
141
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A Science Strategy
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