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Making Climate Forecasts
Matter
Paul C. Stern and William E. Easterling,
editors
Panel on the Human Dimensions of
Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability
Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global
Change
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and
Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Page ii
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the
report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
The study was supported by Contracts No. 56-DKNA-6-90040 and
50-DKNA-7-90052 between the National Academy of Sciences and the
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Any
opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in
this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for this project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Making climate forecasts matter / Paul C. Stern and William
E.
Easterling, editors; Panel on the Human Dimensions of
Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, Committee on the
Human
Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and
Social
Sciences and Education, National Research Council.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06475-9 (hardcover)
1. Climatic changes—Social aspects. 2. Weather
forecasts—Social aspects. I. Stern, Paul C., 1944- II.
Easterling,
William E. III. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on
the
Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate
Variability.
QC981.8.C5 M345 1999
551.63—dc21
99-6247
Additional copies of this report are available from National
Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C.
20418.
Call (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington
metropolitan area)
This report is also available on line at
http://www.nap.edu
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
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Page iii
Panel on the Human Dimensions of
Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability
WILLIAM E. EASTERLING (Chair), Department of Geography
and Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State University
PAUL R. EPSTEIN, Center for Health and the Global Environment,
Harvard Medical School
KATHLEEN A. GALVIN, Department of Anthropology, Colorado State
University
DIANA M. LIVERMAN, Latin American Area Center and Department of
Geography, University of Arizona
DENNIS S. MILETI, Department of Sociology and Natural Hazards
Research and Applications Information Center, University of
Colorado
KATHLEEN A. MILLER, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
FRANKLIN W. NUTTER, Reinsurance Association of America,
Washington, DC
MARK R. ROSENZWEIG, Department of Economics, University of
Pennsylvania
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Washington
ELKE U. WEBER, Department of Psychology, Ohio State
University
PAUL C. STERN, Study Director, National Research
Council
HEATHER C. SCHOFIELD, Senior Project Assistant, National
Research Council
PAUL McLAUGHLIN, Consultant, Independent Researcher
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Page v
Committee on the Human Dimensions of
Global Change 1998
DIANA M. LIVERMAN (Chair), Latin American Area Center and
Department of Geography, University of Arizona
JOHN ANTLE, Department of Agricultural Economics, Montana State
University
PAUL R. EPSTEIN, Center for Health and Global Environment,
Harvard Medical School
MYRON GUTMANN, Department of History, University of Texas at
Austin
PAUL MAYEWSKI, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and
Space, University of New Hampshire
EMILIO F. MORAN, Department of Anthropology, Indiana
University
ELINOR OSTROM, Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis,
Indiana University
EDWARD PARSON, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard
University
RONALD R. RINDFUSS, Department of Sociology, University of North
Carolina, Chapel Hill
ROBERT SOCOLOW, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies,
Princeton University
SUSAN STONICH, Department of Anthropology, University of
California
ELKE WEBER, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University
EDWARD FRIEMAN (ex officio, chair, Board on Sustainable
Development), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University
of California, San Diego
ORAN R. YOUNG (ex officio, International Human Dimensions
Programme liaison), Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth
College
PAUL C. STERN, Study Director, National Research
Council
HEATHER C. SCHOFIELD, Senior Project Assistant, National
Research Council
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Page vi
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National
Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of
science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
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Contents
Preface
ix
Summary
1
1
Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society
7
Climate Variation and Society
11
Structure of this Book
16
2
Climate Forecasting and Its Uses
18
Weather and Climate
18
How Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts Are Made
19
Toward Usable Knowledge
29
Findings
36
3
Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation
38
Coping in Weather-Sensitive Sectors
39
Institutions for Coping with Climate Variability
54
Findings
58
4
Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful
63
Useful Information That Climate Forecasts Might Provide
63
Responses to Past Climate Predictions
67
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Indirect Sources of Insight into Responses to Climate Forecasts
71
Findings
89
5
Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts
95
Estimating the Effects of Climate Variations
96
Estimating the Value of Climate Forecasts
108
Findings
120
6
Scientific Priorities
124
Findings
125
Scientific Questions
129
References
142
About the Authors
160
Index
165
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Page ix
Preface
Climatic variability on the seasonal-to-interannual time scale
affects many facets of human life. It always has. Throughout human
history, departures from the seasonal rhythms of climate often
provided the difference between wealth and poverty, feast and
famine, health and disease, and even life and death. Sometimes,
more subtly, they spelled delicate differences among degrees of
profit and loss. So pervasive are the implications of climatic
variability for human welfare that, for thousands of years,
societies have developed coping strategies ranging from elaborate
irrigation systems to nomadic pastoralism to the modern disaster
insurance industry.
The effects of climatic variability are, at times, dramatic and
unmistakable; at other times, they are muted and difficult to
separate from other driving forces affecting society. Haunting
television images of withered crops and starving Ethiopians in the
1970s gave the viewing public a chilling firsthand glimpse of what
can happen when rains so desperately needed cease. More careful
analysis shows, however, that although drought precipitated the
famine, it was also due to other factors, such as war, forced
resettlement, and disruption of the national food system.
As we look to the future, there are compelling reasons to
believe that the welfare of societies worldwide will be
increasingly tied to risks and opportunities associated with
seasonal-to-interannual climatic variability. Several trends point
in this direction. The global demand for food and fiber will
continue to rise, fueled by growth in population and incomes,
especially in developing countries. The ability of the world's
farmers and foresters to meet the demand sustainably is in
question. The
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Page x
disparity of incomes between the rich and poor, north and south,
and urban and rural is growing wider. Rapid urbanization,
especially in developing countries, is drawing labor and capital
from rural hinterlands and transforming prime agricultural land
along the urban fringe, thus degrading resource bases. Development
in semiarid regions and along coastal lowlands is occurring at a
rapid pace, thus increasing the human population in the areas most
vulnerable to climatic variations. For better or worse,
unprecedented long-term climatic changes likely to occur from
greenhouse warming will also change seasonal-to-interannual
variability.
Improvement in the ability to forecast climatic variability
based on knowledge of ocean-atmosphere interactions is one of the
premiere advancements in the atmospheric sciences at the close of
the 20th century. Improved seasonal-to-interannual climate
prediction offers society an opportunity to partially or fully
protect, or even to increase, social welfare. It promises to enable
society to deal with the effects of climate variability more
effectively than ever. But increase in forecast skill is not a
panacea. The improved forecasts remain far from perfect. They are
often ill-suited for direct use in decision making. And decision
making is often ill-suited for use of the forecasts.
In recognition of the above, the Office of Global Programs (OGP)
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has
elected to focus its Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate
Fluctuations research program on increasing understanding of how
society is affected by seasonal-to-interannual climate variability
and, in turn, how society may benefit from improved ability to
forecast such variability. NOAA asked the Committee on the Human
Dimensions of Global Change of the National Research Council (NRC)
to establish the Panel on the Human Dimensions of
Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability to examine these
issues. The panel was given this task: to provide scientific
input to NOAA on research needs and programs in the area of human
dimensions of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability,
including issues of societal vulnerability, use of forecast
information, the value of short-term climate prediction, and
adaptation to climate variability with and without climate forecast
information.
The panel met three times between May 1997 and May 1998—a
period spanning perhaps the most extreme El Niño event of
the century and during which seasonal-to-interannual climate
forecasting became, for the first time, an item of headline news.
The panel recognized that, as we deliberated, a major natural
experiment was occurring that could provide great insights about
the usefulness of climate forecasts. The panel did not attempt to
draw conclusions from this natural experiment—the data are not
yet in—but instead assessed the state of knowledge, data, and
scientific methods on the issues before it and considered how NOAA
and other
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Page xi
interested organizations might use science and experience with
past climate forecasts to build scientific capability for making
climate forecasts more useful to society. In particular, the panel
has formulated a set of scientific questions founded on the current
state of knowledge to guide NOAA's research program on Economics
and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations.
I believe that the panel's analysis of the issues and the
scientific questions we have raised will also be of interest to
readers outside NOAA. These particularly include other
organizations that may support research aimed at making climate
forecasts more useful including, in the United States, the National
Science Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, and the Department of Energy and, on the
international scene, the International Research Institute for
Climate Prediction, the various regional institutes and
organizations supporting research on global change, and private
research sponsors concerned with the wellbeing of regions and
groups that are vulnerable to climatic variations. The panel's work
will also raise intellectual questions of interest to social
scientists who have not previously conducted research on climate
variations but who may become more interested in the topic as they
see its relationship to broader social science issues such as
societal adaptation, communication, decision making, and social
modeling.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals
chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in
accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review
Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide
candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in
making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that
the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence,
and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and
draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their
participation in the review of this report: John Antle, Department
of Agricultural Economics, Montana State University; Michael H.
Glantz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO;
Jerry D. Mahlman, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University;
Edward Parson, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard
University; Robert J. Serafin, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO; Burton H. Singer, Office of Population
Research, Princeton University; Susan Stonich, Department of
Anthropology, University of California, Santa Barbara; and Billie
Lee Turner, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University.
Although the individuals listed above have provided many
constructive comments and
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Page xii
suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the
final content of this report rests solely with the authoring panel
and the institution.
On behalf of the panel, I would like to thank Paul Stern for his
active role in the affairs of the panel. He made a strong
intellectual mark on this effort and was instrumental in weaving
the many small pieces of this book into a coherent whole. His
indispensable contribution was made all the more remarkable by the
personal adversity with which he dealt throughout the time the
panel was active. We also thank Heather Schofield, whose efforts
were essential in organizing our meetings and getting this volume
ready for publication and Christine McShane, who provided essential
help in editing the volume and preparing it for publication. Paul
McLaughlin provided valuable ideas in getting the panel started on
its work. We especially thank Claudia Nierenberg and Caitlin
Simpson of NOAA's Office of Global Programs, who asked us to
initiate this study and maintained productive contact with the
panel throughout our deliberations. They saw, before several of us
on the panel, that research on climate forecasting would raise
interesting social science questions in addition to having
important practical applications.
WILLIAM E. EASTERLING, CHAIR
PANEL ON HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
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MAKING
CLIMATE
FORECASTS
MATTER
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