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Cover by Van Nguyen, National Academy Press. Adapted from
painting Niagara Falls by Frederick Church, 1857.
Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE
DARA ENTEKHABI, Chair, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Cambridge
MARY R. ANDERSON, University of Wisconsin, Madison
RONI AVISSAR, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
ROGER C. BALES, University of Arizona, Tucson
EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
MARC B. PARLANGE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore,
Maryland
CHRISTA PETERS-LIDARD, Georgia Institute of Technology,
Atlanta
KENNETH W. POTTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
National Research Council Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Project Study Director
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Staff Officer
ANITA A. HALL, Project Assistant
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WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD
HENRY J. VAUX, JR. (Chair), University of California,
Riverside
CAROL A. JOHNSTON (Vice Chair), University of Minnesota,
Duluth
RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING, Washington State University, Pullman
GREGORY B. BAECHER, University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN S. BOYER, University of Delaware, Lewes
JOHN BRISCOE, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
DENISE FORT, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
STEVEN R. GLOSS, University of Wyoming, Laramie
EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
WILLIAM A. JURY, University of California, Riverside
GARY S. LOGSDON, Black & Veatch, Cincinnati, Ohio
RICHARD G. LUTHY, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania
JOHN W. MORRIS, J. W. Morris, Arlington, Virginia
PHILLIP A. PALMER, DuPont Engineering, Wilmington, Delaware
REBECCA T. PARKIN, The George Washington University, Washington,
D.C.
JOAN B. ROSE, University of South Florida, St Petersburg
RHODES TRUSSELL, Montgomery Watson, Inc., Pasadena,
California
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Associate Director
CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer
LAURA EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer
JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Staff Officer
JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate
MARK GIBSON, Research Associate
ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant
ELLEN de GUZMAN, Senior Project Assistant
ANIKE JOHNSON, Project Assistant
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University,
University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), IT Group, Inc., Washington,
D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in
Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica,
Massachusetts
ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado
ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,
Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods
Hole, Massachusetts
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Ex Officio Members
DONALD BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge
EUGENE RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN ROADS, University of California at San Diego/Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla
PAUL WINE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
NRC Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia,
Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired),
Charleston, West Virginia
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland,
California
EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington,
D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington,
D.C.
BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington,
Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British
Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park
ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods
Hole, Massachusetts
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee,
Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park,
California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Page vii
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government The National Academy of Engineering
also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National
Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of
science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
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Page ix
Preface
The availability of fresh water is potentially one of the most
pervasive crises of the coming century. Water-related decisions
will determine the future of major ecosystems, the health of
regional economies, and the political stability of nations. A
vigorous program of research in hydrologic sciences can provide the
basis for sound water management at local, regional, national, and
international levels.
The Committee on Hydrologic Science was established by the
National Research Council in 1999 to identify priorities for
hydrologic science that will ensure its vitality as a scientific
discipline in service of societal needs. This charge will be
performed principally through a series of studies that provide
scientific advice on the hydrologic aspects of national program and
U.S. hydrologic contributions to international programs.
This first report contains a preliminary assessment of the
hydrologic science content of the U.S. Global Change Research
Program (USGCRP). Because this is a short and focused report,
little effort is spent to reaffirm the established and successful
elements of the USGCRP. In fact, the Committee generally endorses
the findings of the National Research Council (NRC) report
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next
Decade (NRC, 1998a; the so-called Pathways report) in
this respect. Instead the attention here is directed toward the
most critical missing hydrologic science elements in the FY2000
USGCRP. This brings the focus to the terrestrial component of the
water cycle. The integrative nature of terrestrial hydrology could
significantly strengthen the USGCRP. Two specific examples of
the useful roles of terrestrial hydrology are: (1) linking regional
hydrologic and water resources systems with large-scale and global
water and energy cycles and (2) coupling water and biogeochemical
cycles through ecosystems. This report recommends science
priorities on these and related topics.
This report was produced in a short period of time. The
Committee first met February 8–9, 1999, at which time it
several briefings from federal officials and scientists. The
Committee met again April 6–8, 1999, and drafted report
chapters at that time. Subsequently, Committee members edited and
circulated materials until the report was completed. It is
anticipated that in the next few years, several aspects of
hydrology not dealt with in depth in this "initial assessment" will
be fleshed out more thoroughly by the Committee and reported in
more detail.
The Committee was aided in the study process by numerous agency
liaisons, including L. Douglas James, National Science Foundation;
Robert Hirsch, U.S. Geological Survey; Richard Lawford, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; John Schaake, National
Weather Service; Russell Harmon, Army Research Office; David
Goodrich, U.S. Global Change Research Program Office; and
representatives
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Page x
from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Three
NRC staff members helped the Committee: Stephen Parker, director of
the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB), who served as
principal staff officer for the Committee; Peter Schultz, staff
officer with the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; and
Anita Hall, a WSTB administrative assistant.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with
procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The
purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published
report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets
institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft
manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the
deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals
for their participation in the review of this report: Eric J.
Barron, Pennsylvania State University; Stephen Burges, University
of Washington; George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia; Dennis
Lettenmaier, University of Washington; Diane M. McKnight,
University of Colorado; Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State
University; Fred M. Phillips, New Mexico Institute of Mining and
Technology; David H. Rind, NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies; and Soroosh Sorooshian, University of Arizona. Although
the individuals listed above provided constructive comments and
suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the
final content of this report rests with the authoring committee and
the NRC.
It is the hope of the Committee that the recommendations are
persuasive and that they will be pursued, as commitment to
implementation of these recommendations should bring advances to
hydrologic science for the benefit of society.
DARA ENTEKHABI, CHAIR
COMMITTEE ON HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE
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Contents
Executive Summary
1
1. Setting Priorities
3
2. Science Foundations and Basic
Processes
6
Predictability and Variability of
Regional and Global Water Cycles
6
Coupling of Hydrologic System and
Ecosystems through Chemical Cycles
10
3. Measurement and Data Strategies
16
4. Applications and Knowledge Transfer
25
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
27
References
31
Appendix: Biographical Sketches of
Committee Members
33
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