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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Panel Reports Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee Board on Physics and Astronomy—Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panels responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NAG5–6916, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AST–9800149, and the Keck Foundation. Cover: The montage on the front cover consists of one image from each of the seven panel reports in this volume. Top left: x-ray image showing loops of million-degree plasma in the solar corona (page 240). Top middle: optical/ infrared image of the stars at the very center of our galaxy in orbit around the putative black hole located there (page 115). Top right: radio map of the giant elliptical galaxy Messier 87 showing the structure of the huge cloud of relativistic plasma encompassing the galaxy and powered by the central black hole (page 187). Middle: x-ray image of the nearby supernova remnant E0102–72.3 showing the expanding shell of hot gas formed by the supernova explosion (page 37). Middle right: simulated interferometric image reconstruction of how an Earth-like planet around a nearby star would appear to the Terrestrial Planet Finder (page 348). Bottom right: artist’s conception of the Laser Inteferometer Space Antenna orbiting Earth and superimposed on the ripples in space-time produced by the gravitational power of merging supermassive black holes (page 144). Bottom left: computer visualization of the hot gas in a theoretical chunk of the universe from a cosmological simulation (page 292). Library of Congress Control Number: 2001093504 International Standard Book Number: 0-309-07037-6 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet <http://www.nap.edu> Board on Physics and Astronomy, National Research Council, HA 562, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418 Internet <http://www.national-academies.org/bpa> Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm.A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm.A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports This page in the original is blank.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE CHRISTOPHER F.McKEE, University of California, Berkeley, Co-chair JOSEPH H.TAYLOR, JR., Princeton University, Co-chair DAVID J.HOLLENBACH, NASA Ames Research Center, Executive Officer TODD BOROSON, National Optical Astronomy Observatories WENDY FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories DAVID C.JEWITT, University of Hawaii STEVEN M.KAHN, Columbia University JAMES M.MORAN, JR., Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JERRY E.NELSON, University of California Observatories R.BRUCE PARTRIDGE, Haverford College MARCIA RIEKE, University of Arizona ANNEILA I.SARGENT, California Institute of Technology ALAN TITLE, Lockheed Martin Space Technology Center SCOTT TREMAINE, Princeton University MICHAEL S.TURNER, University of Chicago NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF DONALD C.SHAPERO, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Director JOSEPH K.ALEXANDER, Space Studies Board, Director ROBERT L.RIEMER, Senior Program Officer JOEL R.PARRIOTT, Program Officer GRACE WANG, Administrative Associate (1998–1999) SÄRAH A.CHOUDHURY, Project Associate (1999–2000) MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant (1998–2000) NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant (2000)

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports PANEL ON ASTRONOMY EDUCATION AND POLICY ANDREA K.DUPREE, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chair R.BRUCE PARTRIDGE, Haverford College, Vice Chair (education) ANNEILA I.SARGENT, California Institute of Technology, Vice Chair (policy) FRANK BASH, McDonald Observatory, University of Texas GREGORY BOTHUN, University of Oregon SUZAN EDWARDS, Smith College RICCARDO GIACCONI, Associated Universities, Inc. PETER A.GILMAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research MICHAEL HAUSER, Space Telescope Science Institute BLAIR SAVAGE, University of Wisconsin IRWIN SHAPIRO, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics FRANK SHU, University of California, Berkeley NEIL DE GRASSE TYSON, American Museum of Natural History PANEL ON BENEFITS TO THE NATION FROM ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS STEPHEN E.STROM, National Optical Astronomy Observatories, Chair DAVID J.HOLLENBACH, NASA Ames Research Center, Vice Chair CONTRIBUTORS TO THE PANEL ROGER ANGEL, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona DOUGLAS DUNCAN, American Astronomical Society; University of Chicago ANDREW FRAKNOI, Foothills College PAUL GOLDSMITH, National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center, Cornell University NEAL KATZ, University of Massachusetts, Amherst EUGENE LEVY, University of Arizona STEPHEN MARAN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center DAVID MORRISON, NASA Ames Research Center LEIF ROBINSON, Sky Publishing Corporation

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports WILLIAM SMITH, Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. EDWARD STONE, California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory CHARLES TOWNES, University of California, Berkeley VIRGINIA TRIMBLE, University of California, Irvine, and University of Maryland PAUL VANDEN BOUT, National Radio Astronomy Observatory SIDNEY WOLFF, National Optical Astronomy Observatories PANEL ON HIGH-ENERGY ASTROPHYSICS FROM SPACE ROGER D.BLANDFORD, California Institute of Technology, Chair STEVEN M.KAHN, Columbia University, Vice Chair LARS BILDSTEN, University of California, Berkeley FRANCE A.CORDOVA, University of California, Santa Barbara JONATHAN GRINDLAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics DAN McCAMMON, University of Wisconsin PETER MICHELSON, Stanford University STEPHEN S.MURRAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics RENE ASHWIN ONG, University of Chicago CRAIG L.SARAZIN, University of Virginia NICHOLAS WHITE, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center STANFORD EARL WOOSLEY, University of California, Santa Cruz PANEL ON OPTICAL AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND ALAN DRESSLER, Carnegie Observatories, Chair TODD BOROSON, National Optical Astronomy Observatories, Vice Chair JERRY E.NELSON, University of California Observatories, Vice Chair JILL BECHTOLD, University of Arizona RAYMOND CARLBERG, University of Toronto BRUCE CARNEY, University of North Carolina JAMES ELLIOT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RICHARD ELSTON, University of Florida ANDREA MIA GHEZ, University of California, Los Angeles

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports CHARLES LADA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JAMES W.LIEBERT, University of Arizona CHARLES C.STEIDEL, California Institute of Technology CHRISTOPHER STUBBS, University of Washington DAVID C.JEWITT, University of Hawaii, Ex Officio PANEL ON PARTICLE, NUCLEAR, AND GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE ASTROPHYSICS THOMAS K.GAISSER, University of Delaware, Chair MICHAEL S.TURNER, University of Chicago, Vice Chair BARRY BARISH, California Institute of Technology STEVEN WILLIAM BARWICK, University of California, Irvine EUGENE BEIER, University of Pennsylvania JOSHUA FRIEMAN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory ALICE KUST HARDING, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center RICHARD ALWIN MEWALDT, California Institute of Technology RENE ASHWIN ONG, University of Chicago BOHDAN PACZYNSKI, Princeton University Observatory BERNARD SADOULET, University of California, Berkeley PIERRE SOKOLSKY, University of Utah RAINER WEISS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PANEL ON RADIO AND SUBMILLIMETER-WAVE ASTRONOMY MARTHA P.HAYNES, Cornell University, Chair JAMES M.MORAN, JR., Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Vice Chair GEOFFREY A.BLAKE, California Institute of Technology DONALD B.CAMPBELL, Cornell University JOHN E.CARLSTROM, University of Chicago NEAL J.EVANS, University of Texas at Austin JACQUELINE N.HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology KENNETH I.KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory ALAN P.MARSCHER, Boston University STEVEN T.MYERS, University of Pennsylvania

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports MARK J.REID, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics WILLIAM J.WELCH, University of California, Berkeley DONALD BACKER, University of California, Berkeley, Consultant PANEL ON SOLAR ASTRONOMY MICHAEL KNOELKER, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Chair ALAN TITLE, Lockheed Martin Space Technology Center, Vice Chair DALE EVERETT GARY, New Jersey Institute of Technology PHILIP R.GOODE, New Jersey Institute of Technology JOSEPH B.GURMAN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center SHADIA RIFAI HABBAL, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics DANA WARFIELD LONGCOPE, Montana State University RONALD LEE MOORE, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center THOMAS RIMMELE, National Solar Observatory JOHN H.THOMAS, University of Rochester ELLEN GOULD ZWEIBEL, University of Colorado, Boulder PANEL ON THEORY, COMPUTATION, AND DATA EXPLORATION WILLIAM H.PRESS, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair SCOTT TREMAINE, Princeton University, Vice Chair CHARLES ALCOCK, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory/ University of Pennsylvania LARS BILDSTEN, University of California, Berkeley/Santa Barbara ADAM BURROWS, University of Arizona LARS HERNQUIST, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics CRAIG JAMES HOGAN, University of Washington MARC PAUL KAMIONKOWSKI, Columbia University MICHAEL NORMAN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign EVE OSTRIKER, University of Maryland THOMAS A.PRINCE, California Institute of Technology ALEX SANDOR SZALAY, Johns Hopkins University ROBERT F.STEIN, Michigan State University, Consultant

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports PANEL ON ULTRAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM SPACE STEVEN V.W.BECKWITH, Space Telescope Science Institute, Chair WENDY FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories, Vice Chair MARCIA RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair JOSEPH A.BURNS, Cornell University DALE CRUIKSHANK, NASA Ames Research Center RICHARD S.ELLIS, University of Cambridge ALEXEI V.FILIPPENKO, University of California, Berkeley MARTIN O.HARWIT, Washington, D.C. LYNNE HILLENBRAND, California Institute of Technology SHRINIVAS KULKARNI, California Institute of Technology ABRAHAM LOEB, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics ROBERT D.MATHIEU, University of Wisconsin WARREN MOOS, Johns Hopkins University J.MICHAEL SHULL, University of Colorado EDWARD L.WRIGHT, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID C.JEWITT, University of Hawaii, Ex Officio AD HOC CROSS-PANEL WORKING GROUPS Astronomical Surveys, Thomas A.Prince, Chair Extrasolar Planets, David C.Jewitt, Chair Laboratory Astrophysics, Charles Alcock, Chair NSF-Funded National Observatories, Frank Bash, Chair

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY ROBERT C.DYNES, University of California, San Diego, Chair ROBERT C.RICHARDSON, Cornell University, Vice Chair GORDON A.BAYM, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign WILLIAM BIALEK, NEC Research Institute VAL FITCH, Princeton University RICHARD D.HAZELTINE, University of Texas at Austin JOHN HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JOHN C.MATHER, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center CHERRY ANN MURRAY, Lucent Technologies ANNEILA I.SARGENT, California Institute of Technology JOSEPH H.TAYLOR, JR., Princeton University KATHLEEN TAYLOR, General Motors Research and Development Center J.ANTHONY TYSON, Lucent Technologies CARL E.WIEMAN, JILA/University of Colorado, Boulder PETER G.WOLYNES, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DONALD C.SHAPERO, Director ROBERT L.RIEMER, Associate Director JOEL R.PARRIOTT, Program Officer ACHILLES SPELIOTOPOULOS, Program Officer GRACE WANG, Administrative Associate (1998–1999) SÄRAH A.CHOUDHURY, Project Associate MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant (1998–2000) NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports Members of the survey committee and the panels consulted widely with their colleagues to solicit advice and to inform other members of the astronomical community of the main issues facing the committee. This consultation process provided useful input for the panel reports and also gave the survey committee a good picture of the community consensus on the various initiatives under consideration for inclusion among the priorities of the main report. At the final AASC meeting in late 1999, the panel chairs participated with members of the survey committee to develop the new decadal survey’s recommendations. The committee based its final recommendations and priorities in significant part on the panel reports and on the discussions with the panel chairs. The overall priorities are presented in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the New Millennium, the report of the AASC. The AASC’s priorities take precedence over those of the panel reports in the present volume. The panel reports contain, in addition to more detailed discussion of these priorities, further projects and topics that were not selected by the AASC for inclusion among the overall priorities that are viewed as having importance for the field as a whole. They also contain cost estimates,3 which formed the basis for the cost estimates in the AASC report. The panel reports were reviewed by the National Research Council together with the AASC report. 3   The size categories for new initiatives are based on the capital cost for ground-based projects and on the total cost, excluding technology development, for space-based projects. Only costs to be borne by the federal government are included. The AASC’s cost estimates for these initiatives are based on discussions with agency personnel and on presentations to the panels; they are given in FY2000 dollars. For ground-based projects, small projects have capital costs of up to $5 million; moderate, from $5 million to $50 million; and major, above $50 million. In contrast to the practice in previous decadal surveys, the tabulated costs for ground-based capital projects include operations and new instrumentation for 5 years at rates of 7 percent and 3 percent, respectively, of the capital cost per year. In addition, grants for data analysis and associated theory are included at a rate of 3 percent of the capital cost per year for major projects, 5 percent for moderate projects, and 0 percent for small projects. The total costs that were used in the survey committee report for ground-based initiatives are thus typically 1.65, 1.75, and 1.50 times the capital costs for major, moderate, and small initiatives, respectively. There are several exceptions to these general rules, however. Square Kilometer Array (SKA) technology development includes only funds for a theory challenge, budgeted at $200,000 per year for the decade. The Telescope System Instrumentation Program (TSlP) does not require operations or instrumentation funds and is too fragmented to have a grants program. The National Virtual Observatory (NVO), the National Astrophysics Theory Postdoctoral Program, and the Laboratory Astrophysics Program are not capital projects and therefore have no added costs. The Large-aperture Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is ex

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports The AASC is grateful to the many astronomers, both in the United States and from abroad, who provided written advice or participated in organized discussions. We thank the National Science Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Keck Foundation for providing support for the project. We are grateful to Robert Milkey and Kevin Marvel and to the American Astronomical Society for assistance in the community outreach and town meeting sessions. The committee also acknowledges the assistance of NRC staff members, particularly the outstanding work of Joel Parriott and Roc Riemer, who provided support for the entire project, Susan Maurizi and Liz Fikre, who edited the reports, and the National Academy Press, which published the reports. We are also indebted to Robert Sokol and Ken Van Pool of Design@Large for their innovative design of the booklet that gives an overview of and popularizes the results of the survey. The timely completion of this report would not have been possible without the unstinting efforts of David Hollenbach, who served both as a member of the committee and as Executive Officer. Many other people too numerous to cite individually assisted in various aspects of the survey. We thank them all for their assistance. Christopher F.McKee and Joseph H.Taylor, Jr., Co-chairs Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee     pected to have significant expenses for data analysis, so the total operations cost estimated by the Panel on Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground has been used for this project. The cost estimates for space-based initiatives do not include technology development. NASA has adopted a policy of deferring the construction of new missions until all major technological problems have been solved, a policy the committee endorses. These costs are typically about 30 percent of the construction costs of a mission. In some cases, entire missions will serve as precursors for other missions, such as the Space Interferometry Mission for the Terrestrial Planet Finder. The Explorer and Discovery missions are regarded as small initiatives. Since they are peer-reviewed, the committee did not prioritize them. Moderate missions are those with construction, launch, and operations costs between the $140 million cap on Explorer missions and $500 million; major missions have estimated costs above $500 million. The cost estimates for ground-based projects listed in the reports of the panels are different from those listed in the Executive Summary and the survey committee report, because the costs for projects described by the panels have not been inflated using the calculations described above. The total cost estimates for space-based projects listed in the reports of the panels may differ from those listed in the Executive Summary and the survey committee report in some cases. The Next Generation Space Telescope, discussed in the report of the Panel on Ultraviolet, Optical, and Infrared Astronomy from Space, is an example. Technology development costs were included in some cases and the numbers in the panel reports were not rounded.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of the survey committee report and/or one or more of the panel reports: W.David Arnett, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Peter Banks, ERIM International, Inc. (retired), Gordon A.Baym, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Roger Chevalier, University of Virginia, Anita L.Cochran, University of Texas at Austin, Marshall H.Cohen, California Institute of Technology, Anne P.Cowley, Arizona State University, Val L.Fitch, Princeton University, Bill Green, former Congressman, New York, Karen L.Harvey, Solar Physics Research Group, John P.Huchra, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Robert P.Kirshner, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chryssa Kouveliotou, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Richard G.Kron, Yerkes Observatory, Jeffrey Linsky, University of Colorado/JILA,

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports Richard McCray, University of Colorado/JILA, Melissa McGrath, Space Telescope Science Institute, Mark Morris, University of California, Los Angeles, Martin J.Rees, Institute of Astronomy, Cambridge University, U.K., Morton S.Roberts, National Radio Astronomy Observatory-Charlottesville, Patrick Thaddeus, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, J.Anthony Tyson, Lucent Technologies, and David T.Wilkinson, Princeton University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the survey committee report and of the panel reports was overseen by Nicholas P.Samios, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Lewis M.Branscomb, John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the reports was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report and the panel reports rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON HIGH-ENERGY ASTROPHYSICS FROM SPACE   17     Summary,   18     A Decade of Opportunity,   20     Emergence of Structure,   21     Gravity Power,   25     Origin of the Elements,   33     Surprises,   39     A New Beginning,   39     Chandra,   39     XMM-Newton,   41     HETE-2 and Swift,   41     INTEGRAL,   42     The Next Steps,   42     Proposed Major Mission: Constellation-X,   42     First-Priority Proposed Intermediate Mission: GLAST,   50     Second-Priority Proposed Intermediate Mission: EXIST,   54     Investing for the Future,   56     MAXIM (E, F),   56     Generation-X (A, I),   58     MeV Spectroscopy Mission (J, L),   58     Smaller Programs,   58     Potential Explorer Research,   59     Ultralong-Duration Ballooning,   60

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports     Laboratory Astrophysics,   60     Theoretical Challenges,   61     Policy Issues,   61     Long-Term Scientific Support for Observers,   61     Junior Faculty Instrumentation Program,   62     Education and Public Outreach,   62     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   63 2   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON OPTICAL AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND   65     Summary,   66     Major Initiative, Priority One: GSMT,   67     Major Initiative, Priority Two: LSST,   68     Moderate Initiative, Priority One: TSIP,   68     Science Opportunities,   69     Answering Fundamental Questions,   69     Exploiting the Diverse, Unique Facilities of U.S. Ground-based O/IR Astronomy,   71     Major Initiative, Priority One: Develop and Build a Next-Generation Ground-Based Telescope (GSMT),   73     Mission Description,   73     Science with the GSMT,   75     Theory Challenge for GSMT,   88     Technology Basis,   88     Key Technology Issues,   89     Cost Issues,   91     Context Issues,   93     Ancillary Benefits,   94     Major Initiative, Priority Two: A Large-Aperture Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST),   94     Mission Description,   94     Science with LSST: The Wide Area Variability Experiment,   95     Theory Challenge for LSST,   102     Data Flow and Information Distribution,   102     Multiplicative Advantages and Discovery Space Potential,   104     Technology and Cost Issues,   104     Context Issues,   106     Ancillary Benefits,   106

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports     Moderate Initiative, Priority One: Telescope System Instrumentation Program: Leveraging Nonfederal Investment and Increasing Public Access,   107     Definition,   107     Science Drivers for 8-M Telescopes with Advanced Instrumentation,   108     Guidelines for the Telescope System Instrumentation Program,   110     Technology Issues,   116     Cost Issues,   116     Context Issues,   116     Other Issues,   117     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   119 3   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON PARTICLE, NUCLEAR, AND GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE ASTROPHYSICS   123     Summary,   124     Science Opportunities,   125     Gravitational-Wave Astrophysics,   126     Cosmic Particle Acceleration,   128     Neutrino and Nuclear Astrophysics,   133     Search for Dark Matter,   137     Existing Programs,   138     Gravitational Waves,   138     Very-high-energy Gamma Rays,   139     Galactic Cosmic Rays,   139     Highest-Energy Cosmic Rays,   140     Neutrino Astronomy,   141     Solar Neutrinos,   141     Dark Matter Searches,   142     Recommended New Initiatives,   142     Gravitational-Wave Astronomy (LISA),   143     Ground-Based Gamma-Ray Astrophysics (VERITAS),   146     Program in Particle Astrophysics,   149     Technology for the Future,   158     Policy Issues,   158     Facilities,   160     Recommendations for the Funding Agencies,   160     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   163

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports 4   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON RADIO AND SUBMILLIMETER-WAVE ASTRONOMY   167     Summary,   168     Science Opportunities,   172     The Large-Scale Structure of the Universe,   173     The Formation and Evolution of Galaxies,   178     The Formation and Evolution of Stars,   190     The Formation and Evolution of Planets,   194     The Origin and Evolution of Life,   198     Existing Programs,   199     National Centers,   199     University Radio Facilities,   200     Recommended New Initiatives,   202     Expansion of the VLA,   203     Square Kilometer Array,   205     Combined Array for Millimeter Astronomy,   207     Advanced Radio Interferometry Between Space and Earth,   207     South Pole Submillimeter Telescope,   208     Other High-Priority Projects,   209     Technology for the Future,   211     Ground-Based Needs and Opportunities,   212     Space-Based Needs and Opportunities,   213     Policy Issues,   213     Open Skies Policy,   213     Radio Spectrum Management,   214     The National Radio Astronomy Observatory and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array,   214     Agency Funding and Management Policies,   214     Acknowledgments,   215     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   216 5   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR ASTRONOMY   221     Summary,   222     Strategy for the Decade 2001 to 2010,   222     Observational Efforts,   223     Theory and Data Mining,   224     New Technologies,   224     Policy Issues,   225     Why Do Solar Physics Research?,   225     Key to the Magnetodynamic Universe,   225

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports     Solar-Terrestrial Physics,   227     Origin and Evolution of Life on Planets,   228     The Most Significant Advances in the Last Decade,   228     Goals Achieved,   228     The Solar-Stellar Connection,   230     A Systems Approach to Solar Physics—Toward a Decade of Understanding,   231     The Concept Behind the Solar Magnetism Initiative,   233     Global Solar Databases,   234     Operational Forecasting,   234     International Cooperation,   234     Existing Programs,   236     Ground-Based Observational Efforts,   236     Space-Based Observational Efforts,   238     New Initiatives,   244     From the Ground,   245     In Space,   257     Theory and Data Mining: The Solar Magnetism Initiative,   264     Technologies for the Future,   266     Adaptive Optics,   266     Solar-Lite,   267     High-Resolution Vector Magnetometry of UV Lines,   267     Connection to Laboratory Astrophysics,   268     Atomic/Molecular/Nuclear Physics,   268     Plasma Physics,   268     Policy and Educational Aspects,   269     The University-Based Solar Physics Community in the United States,   269     Funding Aspects,   270     The National Solar Observatory,   270     Education,   270     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   271 6   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON THEORY, COMPUTATION, AND DATA EXPLORATION   275     Summary,   276     The Scope of Theoretical Astrophysics,   276     Theory Initiatives Proposed by This Panel,   277     Data Exploration Initiative Proposed by This Panel: The National Virtual Observatory,   280

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports     Summary of Panel Findings and Recommendations,   282     Description of Theoretical Astrophysics,   285     The New Theorist,   285     Successes of the Previous Decade,   287     Theory Challenges Tied to Priority Missions and Projects,   293     Introduction,   293     Examples of Theory Challenges,   294     Computational Threads in Theory Challenges,   301     The National Virtual Observatory,   303     Motivation for the NVO,   303     Major Aspects of the Virtual Observatory,   306     Project Scope, Structure, and Time Line,   310     National Postdoctoral Fellowships in Theoretical Astrophysics,   312     Right-Sizing Theory Support,   314     Institutional Issues for Theoretical Astrophysics,   317     Unique Role for the Department of Energy,   317     Institutes for Visiting Theorists,   319     High-Performance Computing,   320     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   322 7   REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ULTRAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM SPACE   327     Summary,   328     Major Missions,   328     Moderate Missions,   329     Small Missions,   330     Technology Development,   331     Science Opportunities,   332     Assumed Facilities,   336     The Hubble Space Telescope,   336     The Space Interferometry Mission,   337     Recommended New Initiatives,   339     Major Missions,   339     Moderate Missions,   352     Small Missions,   367     Technology for the Future,   369     Energy-Sensitive UV/Optical Detectors,   369     Refrigerators,   370     Spacecraft Communications,   371     Ultralightweight (“Gossamer”) Optics,   372     Acronyms and Abbreviations,   372