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MODELIN
MOB
~ ~ 1 _`
\~
MISSIONS
Committee to Review EPA;,s Mobile Source
Emissions Factor {MOBILE) Model
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
Transportation Research Board
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NATIONALACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington,D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from
the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee
responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Grant No. X825773-01-0 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S.
Department of Transportation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda-
tions expressed in this publication are those of the authorgs) and do not necessarily
reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this
project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07086-0
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
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http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
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William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
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Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW EPA'S MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS FACTOR (MOBILE) MODEL
ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL (Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
JOHN C. BAILAR llI, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
MATTHEW J. BARTH, University of California, Riverside, California
LAURENCE S. CARETTO, California State University, Northridge, California
CARLETON J. HOWARD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan
JOHN F. KOWALCZYK, (retired) Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, Portland, Oregon
ALAN C. LLOYD, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California
MICHAEL R. MORRIS, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington, Texas
ALISON K. POLLACK, ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato, California
ROBERT F. SAWYER, University of California, Berkeley, California
Staff
RAYMOND WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
K. JOHN HOLMES, Project Director
NANCY HUMPHREY, Senior Staff Office
ROBERT CROSSGROVE, Editor
MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, ~ nformation Specialist
PAMELA FRIEDMAN, Project Assistant
CHRISTINE PHILLIPS, Project Assistant
Sponsors
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
IV
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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York
DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas
~NGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
JOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, Kansas
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California
JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California
J. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland
BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California
MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico
CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia
BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin
DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario
JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah
MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
CHARLES OIMELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands
KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California
MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP, Washington, D.C.
TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia
Senior Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology
CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology
LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis
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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York
DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas
INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
JOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City,
Kansas
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford,
California
JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California
J. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, RockviBe, Maryland
BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California
MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute,
Albuquerque, New Mexico
CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia
BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North
Carolina
JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin
DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario
JAMES A. MAcMAHoN, Utah State University, Logan, Utah
MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
CHARLES O'MELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands
KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California
MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP,
Washington, D.C.
TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia
Senior Staff
JAMES J. RETSA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for
Applied Ecology
CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk
Assessment
RAYMOND A.WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences
and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology
LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis
-Vl-
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
2000 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
MARTINWACHS (Chair), Institute of Transportation Studies, University of
California, Berkeley, California
JOHN M. SAMUELS (Vice Chair), Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk,
Virginia
ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR. (Executive Director), National Research Council,
Washington, D.C.
THOMAS F. BARRY, JR., Florida Department of Transportation,
Tallahassee, Florida
JACK E. BUFFINGTON, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas
SARAH C. CAMPBELL, TransManagement, Inc., Washington, D.C.
ANNE P. CANBY, Delaware Department of Transportation, Dover, Delaware
E. DEAN CARLSON, Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka, Florida
JOANNE F. CASEY, Intermodal Association of North America, Greenbelt,
Maryland
ROBERT A. FROSH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
GORMAN GILBERT, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North
Carolina
GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles,
California
LESTER A. HOEL, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
H. THOMAS KORNEGAY, Port of Houston Authority, Houston, Texas
THOMAS F. LARWIN, San Diego Metropolitan Transit Development Board,
San Diego, California
BRADLEY L. MALLORY, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation,
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
JEFFREY R. MORELAND, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation, Fort
Worth, Texas
SID MORRISON, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia,
Washington
JOHN P. POORMAN, Capital District Transportation Committee, Albany,
New York
WAYNE SHACKELFORD, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta
(Former Chairman, 1999)
CHARLES H. THOMPSON, Wisconsin Department of Transportation,
Madison, Wisconsin
MICHAEL S. TOWNES, Transportation District Commission of Hampton
Roads, Hampton, Virginia
THOMAS R. WARNE, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City,
Utah
ARNOLD F. WELLMAN, JR., Corporate Public Affairs, United Parcel Service,
Washington, D.C.
. ~
vll-
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JAMES A. WILDING, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority,
Alexandria, Virginia
M. GORDONWOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
DAVID N. WORMLEY, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park,
Pennsylvania
.. .
-v`~-
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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARDA. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston,
West Virginia
LYNN GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health,
Baltimore, Maryland
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, DC
BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS, E1 Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British
Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and
University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville
ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado
ANDREW R. SOLOW, WOODS Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole,
Massachusetts
E-An Zen, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menio Park, California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
DAVID FEARY, Scientific Reports Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
-`x-
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OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research
Management and Peer Review Practice (2000)
Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000)
Copper in Drinking Water (2000)
Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000)
Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999)
Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999)
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a
Long-Range Research Portfolio (19981; II. Evaluating Research Progress and
Updating the Portfolio (1999)
Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999)
Risk-Based Waste Classification in California (1999)
Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999)
Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998)
The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years
(1997)
Toxicologic Assessment ofthe Army's Zinc Cadmium Sulfide Dispersion Tests (1997)
Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996)
Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996)
Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995)
Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995)
Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989- 1995)
Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports,
1994- 1995)
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994)
Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993)
Issues in Risk Assessment (1993)
Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993)
Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993)
Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992)
Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992)
Science and the National Parks (1992)
Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991)
Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program,
Volumes I-IV (1991-1993)
Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991)
Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances (1991)
Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991)
Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990)
Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press
(8009 624-6242 or (2029 334-3313
www.rtap.edu
X
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Preface
MOTOR VEHICLES are the major sources of air pollutant emissions in U.S. cities.
The constituents of those emissions can be harmful to human health and the envi-
ronment, and also are responsible for the formation of other harmful compounds,
such as ozone and particulate matter. Effectively managing air pollution problems
depend critically on having accurate automotive emissions estimates. In the
United States (outside of California), the Mobile Source Emissions Factor
(NIOBILE) Model has been at the heart of this process. MOBILE develops emis-
sions factors that, along with information on vehicle activity, are used to estimate
emissions inventories for on-road mobile sources. Further, MOBILE is used to ad-
just those emissions factors to account for the impact of controls, and to forecast
how emissions will change in the future and the effectiveness of control programs.
Studies of the MOBILE model suggest that its ability to accurately assess the
effectiveness of various very expensive programs, such as the oxygenated fuels pro-
gram and inspection and maintenance, is poor. Because of the model's importance
in assessing air-quality control programs and because of concerns about weak-
nesses in the accuracy and reliability of the model, Congress asked the National
Academy of Sciences to review the MOBILE model. The National Research Coun-
cil's Committee to Review EPA's Mobile-Source Emissions Factor Model was
formed in response to that request. The task for the committee was to review and
evaluate the MOBILE model. Specifically, it was to consider the adequacy of the
model's input data, assumptions, structure, and results for mobile-source emis-
sions estimation, and recommend ways to improve the reliability of the model.
Many individuals assisted the committee by providing information on the
sources of emissions and emissions modeling techniques addressed in this report.
I gratefully acknowledge Mark Carlock, California Air Resources Board; Thomas
Darlington, Air Improvement Resources Inc.; Axel Friedrich, German Federal
—X'
j
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-X;;- PREFACE
Environmental Agency; Eric Fujita, Desert Research Institute; Richard Gibbs, New
York Department of Environmental Conservation; Randall Guensler, Georgia In-
stitute of Technology; Jose Luis Jimenez, Massachusetts Institute of Technology;
Charles Schleyer, Mobil Oil; Joel Schwartz, California Inspection and Maintenance
Review Committee; and Thomas Wenzel, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley Na-
tional Laboratory. I also thank Philip Lorang, Lois Platte, and John White from
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Richard Schoeneberg from the U.S.
Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration for providing in-
formation to the committee.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their di-
verse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved
by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review
is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the NRC in making the pub-
lished report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional
standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity
of the deliberative process. The committee wishes to thank the following individu-
als for their participation in the review of this report: Robert Dulla, Sierra Re-
search, Inc.; Robert Frosch, Harvard University; Eric Fujita, Desert Research Insti-
tute; Thomas Graedel, Yale University; Randall Guensler, Georgia Institute of
Technology; Winston Harrington, Resources for the Future; David Lax, American
Petroleum Institute; Frederick Lurmann, Sonoma Technology, Inc.; John McTague,
Ford Motor Company (retired); and Deborah Niemeier, University of California,
Davis.
The individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions. It must be emphasized, however, that responsibility for the final con-
tent of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
I am also grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in the preparation of this
report. K. John Holmes was key in preparing this report in his role as project di-
rector. The committee also acknowledges Raymond Wassel, senior program direc-
tor of environmental sciences and engineering in the Board on Environmental
Studies and Toxicology. We also thank the other staff members contributing to
this report, including Robert Hamilton, executive director of the Commission on
Geosciences, Environment, and Resources; James Reisa, director of the Board on
Environmental Studies and Toxicology; Robert Crossgrove, editor; Nancy
Humphrey, senior program director with the Transportation Research Council; and
Pamela Friedman, Christine Phillips, Tracie Holty, and Ruth Danoff, project assis-
tants.
Finally, I would like to thank all the members of the committee for their exper-
tise and dedicated effort throughout the study.
Armistead G. Russell, Ph.D.
Chair, Committee to Review EPA's Mobile
Source Emissions Factor (MOBILE) Model
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...
1 OVERVIEW OF M OBILE-SOURCE EMISSIONS 15
Air-Quality Protection, 16
Estimating Emissions from Mobile Sources, 20
Legislative and Regulatory Initiatives, 28
Committee's Charge and How it Originated, 31
Report Structure, 32
2 USES OF M OBILE IN AIR-QUALITY~LANAGEMENT
Future Mobile-Source Emissions-Modeling Issues, 34
Modeling Air Quality: An Interdisciplinary Endeavor, 35
Uses of MOBILE Model in Policy Decision-Making, 46
Summary of Policy Implications and Recommendations, 59
3. TECHNICALISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE M OBILE MODEL
History and Status of the MOBILE Model, 61
Federal Advisory Committee Act Process and Public Outreach, 68
Related Models, 69
Previous Reviews of MOBILE, 75
High Emitters, 77
Driving-Cycle Issues, 80
Start Emissions, 88
In-Use Deterioration, 91
Inspection and Maintenance Issues, 94
·~.
-x'''-
33
61
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-X;V- CONTENTS
Air Conditioning Effects, 104
Evaporative Emissions, 107
Fuel Effects, 109
Exhaust Emissions Temperature-Correction Factors, 116
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions, 118
Particulate Emissions, 122
Fleet Characterization, 126
Summary and Recommendations, 127
4 MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND EVALUATION
Definition of Terms, 136
Types and Sources of Uncertainty and Error, 138
Previous MOBILE Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies, 147
Why Uncertainty Analyses Are Needed, 149
Introduction to Evaluation, 150
MOBILE's Sensitivity to Variation in Driving and Starts, 151
State Emissions Inspection Testing, 153
Remote Sensing, 155
Roadside Inspection, 156
Ambient Air-Quality Monitoring and Modeling, 157
Tunnel Studies, 159
Chemical-Mass Balance, 161
Fuel-Based Approach to Emissions Analysis, 162
Summary of Findings and Recommendations, 164
ALTERNATIVE MOBILE-SOURCE EMISSIONS MODELING
135
TECHNIQUES 167
California Air Resources Board Motor-Vehicle
Emissions Inventory Suite, 167
Mobile-Source Emissions Modeling in the Federal Republic
of Germany, 171
Fuel-Based Emissions Inventories, 176
Modal and Instantaneous Emissions Modeling, 178
Integration of Emission Models with Transportation Models, 184
Summary, 195
6 A TOOLKIT OF FUTURE EMISSIONS INVENTORY MODELS
Review of MOBILE's Uses and Shortcomings, 198
Development of a Modeling Toolkit, 199
Guidance Documentation, 206
Summary of Policy and Institutional Issues, 207
....... 197
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CONTENTS -XV-
REFERENCES
GLossARY
210
-eeeeeeeeeeee~ en 226
APPENDIX A Biographical Information on the
Committee to Review EPA's Mobile Source Emissions Factor
MOBILE) Model ·e-eee-ee~ evens
APPENDIX B Acronyms and Names Used for Classifying
Organic Compounds eves en ewe
... 235
238
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Modeling
Mobile-Source Emissions
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