Energy Research at DOE WAS IT WORTH IT?

Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000

Committee on Benefits of DOE R&D on Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 Energy Research at DOE WAS IT WORTH IT? Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 Committee on Benefits of DOE R&D on Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-AM01-99PO80016, Task Order DE-AT01-00EE10735.A000, from the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-07448-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2001093513 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. HA–270 Washington, DC 20418 202–334–3344 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800–624–6242 or 202–334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm.A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 COMMITTEE ON BENEFITS OF DOE R&D ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND FOSSIL ENERGY ROBERT W.FRI, National Museum of Natural History, Chair WILLIAM AGNEW, NAE,1 General Motors Research Laboratories (retired) PETER D.BLAIR, National Academy of Sciences RALPH CAVANAGH, Natural Resources Defense Council UMA CHOWDHRY, NAE, DuPont Engineering Technology LINDA R.COHEN, University of California, Irvine JAMES CORMAN, Energy Alternative Systems Inc. DANIEL A.DREYFUS, National Museum of Natural History (retired) WILLIAM L.FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin ROBERT HALL, CDG Management, Inc. GEORGE M.HIDY, Envair/Aerochem DAVID C.MOWERY, University of California, Berkeley JAMES DEXTER PEACH, Ellicott City, Maryland MAXINE L.SAVITZ, NAE, Honeywell JACK S.SIEGEL, Energy Resources International, Inc. JAMES L.SWEENEY, Stanford University JOHN J.WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Company (retired) JAMES L.WOLF, consultant, Alexandria, Virginia JAMES WOODS, HP-Woods Research Institute Committee Subgroup on Energy Efficiency MAXINE L.SAVITZ, Co-chair JAMES L.WOLF, Co-chair WILLIAM AGNEW PETER D.BLAIR RALPH CAVANAGH UMA CHOWDHRY LINDA R.COHEN DAVID C.MOWERY JAMES WOODS Committee Subgroup on Fossil Energy JACK S.SIEGEL, Chair JAMES CORMAN WILLIAM L.FISHER ROBERT HALL GEORGE M.HIDY JAMES DEXTER PEACH JOHN J.WISE Committee Subgroup on Benefits Framework JAMES L.SWEENEY, Chair LINDA R.COHEN DANIEL A.DREYFUS ROBERT W.FRI DAVID C.MOWERY Liaison from the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems WILLIAM FULKERSON, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Project Staff RICHARD CAMPBELL, Program Officer and Study Director JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Board Director DAVID FEARY, Senior Program Officer, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR) ROGER BEZDEK, consultant ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Senior Project Assistant 1   NAE = Member, National Academy of Engineering

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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ROBERT L.HIRSCH, RAND, Chair RICHARD E.BALZHISER, NAE,1 Electric Power Research Institute (retired) DAVID BODDE, University of Missouri PHILIP R.CLARK, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired) WILLIAM L.FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin CHRISTOPHER FLAVIN, Worldwatch Institute HAROLD FORSEN, NAE, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired) and University of Tennessee, Knoxville MARTHA A.KREBS, California Nanosystems Institute GERALD L.KULCINSKI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison EDWARD S.RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University ROBERT W.SHAW, JR., Arete Corporation JACK SIEGEL, Energy Resources International, Inc. ROBERT SOCOLOW, Princeton University KATHLEEN C.TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation JACK WHITE, Association of State Energy Research and Technology Transfer Institutions (ASERTTI) JOHN J.WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director RICHARD CAMPBELL, Program Officer ALAN CRANE, Program Officer MARTIN OFFUTT, Program Officer SUSANNA CLARENDON, Financial Associate PANOLA GOLSON, Senior Project Assistant ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Senior Project Assistant SHANNA LIBERMAN, Project Assistant 1   NAE = Member, National Academy of Engineering.

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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 Acknowledgments The Committee on Benefits of DOE R&D on Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy wishes to acknowledge and thank the staffs of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the Office of Fossil Energy for their exemplary cooperation during the course of this project. The committee called on these offices for extensive data, analyses, and presentations, which added significantly to their already heavy workload. The committee also wishes to express appreciation to a number of other individuals and organizations for providing important background information for its deliberations. Loretta Beaumont of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee briefed us on the congressional origins of this study. Members of the committee visited the General Electric Company and Babcock & Wilcox, whose cooperation and openness are greatly appreciated. Other organizations that briefed the committee at one or more of its public meetings include the Ford Motor Company, the Gas Research Institute, Wolk Integrated Services, the Foster Wheeler Development Corporation, International Fuel Cells, Siemens Westinghouse, the Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute, the U.S. General Accounting Office, Avista Laboratories, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Peabody Group, CONSOL Energy Incorporated, and SIMTECHE. The committee is grateful for the facts and insights that these briefings provided. Importantly, the committee recognizes the contribution of Roger Bezdek, whose analytic support and keen advice were essential to the completion of its work. Finally, the chair is acutely aware of the extraordinary efforts of the members of the committee and of the staff of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems of the National Research Council (NRC). Every member of the committee contributed to the analysis of the case studies that form the foundation of this report and to the deliberations on the report itself. The staff, led by Richard Campbell, managed a very complicated and voluminous process in accordance with the highest standards of the NRC. What the committee was able to accomplish of the ambitious agenda set by Congress is entirely due to the efforts of these persons. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Joel Darmstadter, Resources for the Future; Clark W.Gellings, Electric Power Research Institute; Robert L.Hirsch, RAND; John Holdren, John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; James J.Markowsky, American Electric Power Service Corporation (retired); John McTague, Ford Motor Company (retired); Glen R.Schleede, consultant; Frank J.Schuh, Drilling Technology, Inc.; and Lawrence Spielvogel, Lawrence Spielvogel, Inc. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Harold Forsen of the National Academy of Engineering. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Energy Research at DOE was it Worth it?: Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000 Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   9     A Brief History of Federal Energy R&D,   9     Origin and Scope of This Study,   10     Organization of This Report,   12     Reference,   12 2   FRAMEWORK FOR THE STUDY   13     Overview,   13     The Setting,   13     The Framework,   14     Conduct of the Study,   18     Assessment of the Methodology,   18     Reference,   19 3   EVALUATION OF THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS   20     Introduction,   20     Selection of the Case Studies,   22     Buildings: Lessons Learned from the Case Studies,   27     Industry: Lessons Learned from the Case Studies,   30     Transportation: Lessons Learned from the Case Studies,   32     Findings and Judgments,