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Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism (2002)

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Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism

Probability of Occurrence

Technical and Policy Challenges

Approaches to Mitigation

Moderate over the next 5 years, with a high potential for surprise

Theft or diversion may not require state assistance and may go undetected

Crude HEU weapons could be fabricated without state assistance

HEU-based INDs smuggled into the United States could be difficult to detect and recover

First responders may be killed or incapacitated by attack

Improve indications and warnings capabilities

Consolidate SNM at Russian sites, improve inventory controls, and improve security at sites and borders

Accelerate blend-down of Russian HEU

Accelerate the development and deployment of SNM sensor arrays at critical U.S. entry points and targets

Improve capabilities for remote detection of HEU

Develop and announce policies to deter use of INDs by terrorist- states

Improve attribution capabilities

located at universities or government laboratories,6 and many university research reactors operate on a restricted basis and therefore do not generate much radioactive material.

With thermal outputs ranging from about 0.1 to 20 megawatts, U.S. research reactors produce much less radiation, heat, and waste (e.g., spent fuel) than do power reactors, whose thermal output is commonly 2,000-3,000 megawatts. Research reactors also generally have fail-safe shutdown systems, and most do not generate sufficient heat to be vulnerable to core accidents, even in the event of a coolant loss. The potential consequences of terrorist attacks therefore appear to be small relative to power reactors.

6  

In addition, the Department of Energy and the U.S. Army operate research and test reactors at several of their sites. The thermal output of these reactors ranges from 5 to 400 megawatts. These reactors are not licensed by the USNRC and are not considered in this discussion.
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