ASSESSMENT OF OPTIONS FOR EXTENDING THE LIFE OF THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE

Final Report

Committee on the Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope

Space Studies Board

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report ASSESSMENT OF OPTIONS FOR EXTENDING THE LIFE OF THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE Final Report Committee on the Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope Space Studies Board Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 01001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. Cover: Hubble Space Telescope image of NGC 4414, a spiral galaxy 19.1 megaparsecs from our own. This image helped astronomers to determine more precisely the value of the Hubble constant, a measure of how fast the universe is expanding. Image courtesy of STScI/NASA. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09530-1 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-54745-8 (PDF) Copies of this report are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report OTHER REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD Exploration of the Outer Heliosphere and the Local Interstellar Medium: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2004) Issues and Opportunities Regarding the U.S. Space Program: A Summary Report of a Workshop on National Space Policy (SSB and ASEB, 2004) Plasma Physics of the Local Cosmos (SSB, 2004) Stepping-Stones to the Future of Space Exploration: A Workshop Report (ASEB, 2004) Utilization of Operational Environmental Satellite Data: Ensuring Readiness for 2010 and Beyond (SSB, 2004) “Vehicle Systems Panel Report on the Status of NASA’s Vehicle Systems Program” (ASEB, 2004) An Assessment of NASA’s Aeronautics Technology Programs (ASEB, 2003) Interim Report of NRC Review of NASA’s Pioneering Revolutionary Technology Program (ASEB, 2003) Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment: Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations (SSB, ASEB, and Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, 2003) “Aeronautics Research and Technology for 2050: Assessing Visions and Goals” (ASEB, 2002) Assessment of the Usefulness and Availability of NASA’s Earth and Space Science Mission Data (SSB, 2002) Factors Affecting the Utilization of the International Space Station for Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences (SSB, 2002) Laying the Foundation for Space Solar Power: An Assessment of NASA’s Space Solar Power Investment Strategy (ASEB, 2001) Life in the Universe: An Examination of U.S. and International Programs in Astrobiology (SSB, 2002) New Frontiers in the Solar System: An Integrated Exploration Strategy (SSB, 2002) “Review of the Redesigned Space Interferometry Mission (SIM)” (SSB and Board on Physics and Astronomy, 2002) The Sun to the Earth—and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics (SSB, 2002) Readiness Issues Related to Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences on the International Space Station (SSB, 2001) “Scientific Assessment of the Descoped Mission Concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST)” (SSB and Board on Physics and Astronomy, 2001) Thermionics Quo Vadis? An Assessment of the DTRA’s Advanced Thermionics Research and Development Program (ASEB, 2001) U.S. Astronomy and Astrophysics: Managing an Integrated Program (SSB and Board on Physics and Astronomy, 2001) Design in the New Millennium: Advanced Engineering Environments: Phase 2 (ASEB, 2000) Engineering Challenges to the Long-Term Operation of the International Space Station (ASEB, 2000) Institutional Arrangements for Space Station Research (ASEB and SSB, 2000) Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477 ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html NOTE: Listed according to year of approval for release.

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report COMMITTEE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF OPTIONS FOR EXTENDING THE LIFE OF THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE LOUIS J. LANZEROTTI, Consultant, Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, and New Jersey Institute of Technology, Chair STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering CHARLES F. BOLDEN, JR., U.S. Marine Corps (retired); TechTrans International, Inc. RODNEY A. BROOKS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory JON H. BRYSON, The Aerospace Corporation (retired) BENJAMIN BUCHBINDER, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (retired) BERT BULKIN, Lockheed Missiles and Space (retired) ROBERT F. DUNN, U.S. Navy (retired) SANDRA M. FABER, University of California Observatories/Lick Observatory, University of California, Santa Cruz B. JOHN GARRICK, Independent Consultant RICCARDO GIACCONI, Johns Hopkins University and Associated Universities, Inc. GREGORY J. HARBAUGH, Sun ’n Fun Fly-In, Inc., and Florida Air Museum TOMMY W. HOLLOWAY, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (retired) JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired) VIJAY KUMAR, University of Pennsylvania FORREST S. McCARTNEY, U.S. Air Force (retired) STEPHEN M. ROCK, Stanford University JOSEPH H. ROTHENBERG, Universal Space Network JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, JR., Princeton University ROGER E. TETRAULT, McDermott International, Inc. (retired) RICHARD H. TRULY, U.S. Navy (retired); National Renewable Energy Laboratory SANDRA J. GRAHAM, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board MAUREEN MELLODY, Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board CELESTE NAYLOR, Senior Project Assistant, Space Studies Board AMANDA SHARP, Research Assistant, Space Studies Board CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Assistant Editor, Space Studies Board

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report SPACE STUDIES BOARD LENNARD A. FISK, University of Michigan, Chair GEORGE A. PAULIKAS, The Aerospace Corporation (retired), Vice Chair DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado ANA P. BARROS, Duke University RETA F. BEEBE, New Mexico State University ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University RADFORD BYERLY, JR., University of Colorado JUDITH A. CURRY, Georgia Institute of Technology JACK D. FARMER, Arizona State University JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DONALD INGBER, Harvard Medical Center RALPH H. JACOBSON, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired) TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles CALVIN W. LOWE, Bowie State University HARRY Y. McSWEEN, JR., University of Tennessee BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire NORMAN NEUREITER, Texas Instruments (retired) SUZANNE OPARIL, University of Alabama, Birmingham RONALD F. PROBSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DENNIS W. READEY, Colorado School of Mines ANNA-LOUISE REYSENBACH, Portland State University ROALD S. SAGDEEV, University of Maryland CAROLUS J. SCHRIJVER, Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory HARVEY D. TANANBAUM, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas, Austin A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD WILLIAM W. HOOVER, U.S. Air Force (retired), Chair RUZENA K. BAJCSY, University of California, Berkeley JAMES (MICKY) BLACKWELL, Lockheed Martin (retired) EDWARD BOLEN, General Aviation Manufacturers Association ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant SUSAN M. COUGHLIN, Aviation Safety Alliance ROBERT L. CRIPPEN, Thiokol Propulsion (retired) DONALD L. CROMER, U.S. Air Force and Hughes Space and Communications Company (retired) JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI, GRA Incorporated S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Rolls-Royce North America (retired) JOHN L. JUNKINS, Texas A&M University JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired) ILAN M. KROO, Stanford University JOHN K. LAUBER, Airbus Industrie of North America, Inc. GEORGE K. MUELLNER, The Boeing Company DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MALCOLM R. O’NEILL, Lockheed Martin Corporation CYNTHIA SAMUELSON, Logistics Management Institute KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia HANSEL E. TOOKES II, Raytheon International, Inc. (retired) ROBERT S. WALKER, Wexler and Walker Public Policy Associates DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company THOMAS L. WILLIAMS, Northrop Grumman Corporation GEORGE M. LEVIN, Director

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: George Bekey, University of Southern California, Roger Blandford, Stanford University, Frank A. Carr, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (retired), Tamara Jernigan, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Takeo Kanade, Carnegie Mellon University, Eugene Kranz, NASA (retired), Achille Messac, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Ali Mosleh, University of Maryland, George Paulikas, Aerospace Corporation (retired), Anneila I. Sargent, California Institute of Technology, Robert W. Smith, University of Alberta, Canada, William Taylor, NASA (retired), Chris Whipple, ENVIRON, and Peter Wilhelm, Naval Research Laboratory. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William H. Press, Los Alamos

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report National Laboratory, and John Ahearne, Sigma Xi. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   8      Background,   8      Goals of This Study,   9      Report Organization and Development,   10 2   HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE   11      Hubble as a System,   11      Current Status of Hubble,   14 3   THE IMPACT OF HUBBLE: PAST AND FUTURE   16      Overview,   16      Observing with Hubble,   18      Science Highlights,   19      Ultradeep Images of the Universe—Galaxies in Formation,   19      Measurement of the Hubble Constant, the Distance Scale of the Universe,   19      Giant Black Holes at the Centers of Galaxies,   20      Accelerated Expansion of the Universe—Dark Energy,   20      Protoplanetary Disks—Planetary Systems in Formation,   22      Hubble in the Scientific and Popular Press,   23      Science Impact of Hubble Servicing Missions,   25      Deteriorating Capabilities That Affect Hubble’s Science Performance,   27      The Promise of Future Discoveries,   30      Future Science Potential Relative to Past Achievements,   35      Comparison of Hubble with Other Planned Facilities,   35

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report      Coordination with Other Facilities,   38      The Timing of a Servicing Mission,   38      Rehosting,   39 4   HST OBSERVATORY ASSESSMENT AND LIFETIME PROJECTION   40      Failure Modeling,   40      Failure Categories,   40      Repair Types,   41      Avionics Reliability Model,   42      Components Subject to Wear-out,   45      Battery Assessment,   46      Rate Sensor Unit (Gyroscope) Assessment,   48      Fine-Guidance Sensor Assessment,   49      Other Reliability Considerations,   50      Solar Panel Assessment,   50      Reaction Wheel Assembly Assessment,   51      Thermal Assessment,   51      Radiation Effects Assessment,   52      HST System Lifetime and Mission Timing Considerations,   52 5   HST ROBOTIC SERVICING ASSESSMENT   56      Program Description,   56      Assessment of the Technical Approach,   57      Mission Description and Risks,   57      Technology Readiness Assessment,   64      Critical Technology Readiness,   64      Program Assessment,   67      Project Team,   67      Program Development Plan,   68      Assessment Summary,   72      Relevance to NASA’s Space Exploration Initiative,   72 6   SPACE SHUTTLE SERVICING OF HUBBLE   74      Requirements Affecting the Viability of a Shuttle Mission to HST While Meeting the CAIB and NASA Return-to-Flight Requirements,   74      CAIB Requirements,   74      Additional NASA Requirements,   75      NASA Administrator’s Considerations,   76      Additional Considerations for a Space Shuttle Mission to HST,   76      NASA’s Response to Recommendations,   76      The Viability of a Shuttle Mission to HST While Meeting the CAIB and NASA RTF Requirements,   77      On-Orbit Inspection Planning and Flexibility,   77      On-Orbit Repair Capability and Limitations,   78      Safe Haven and Crew Rescue,   79      Micro-Meteoroid Orbital Debris Risks,   81

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report      Public Risk of Overflight,   81      Summary of Viability for Meeting Both the CAIB and NASA Requirements,   81      Additional Operational Considerations,   82      Shuttle Rescue Operations Complexity,   82      HST Manifesting Options,   83      RTF Workload,   83      HST De-orbit Module on a Shuttle Servicing Mission,   84      Time and Resources Needed to Overcome Unique Technical or Safety Issues Associated with HST Servicing,   84      Additional Costs to Reinstate a Shuttle Servicing Mission,   85      HST Versus ISS Crew Safety Risk,   85      Relevant Space Shuttle Mission Successes,   86      Human Response to Unforeseen On-Orbit Contingencies,   86      Space Shuttle Servicing Missions to the Hubble Space Telescope,   87      HST Servicing Mission Risk,   90 7   BENEFIT/RISK ASSESSMENT OF HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE SERVICING OPTIONS   92      Introduction,   92      Assessment of the Risks of Human and Robotic Servicing,   92      Definitions,   94      Risk Tables,   103      Conclusions Regarding Risk for Servicing Options,   104      Benefit/Risk Assessment for Servicing Options,   104 8   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   106      Recommendations,   107     APPENDIXES         A  Statement of Task   111     B  Briefings to the Committee   112     C  Interim Report   116     D  State of the Art in Robotics   126     E  Acronyms   130     F  Glossary   134     G  Biographical Information for Committee Members and Staff   137

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Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope: Final Report ASSESSMENT OF OPTIONS FOR EXTENDING THE LIFE OF THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE

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