FRONTIERS OF ENGINEERING

REPORTS ON LEADING-EDGE ENGINEERING FROM THE 2005 SYMPOSIUM

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium FRONTIERS OF ENGINEERING REPORTS ON LEADING-EDGE ENGINEERING FROM THE 2005 SYMPOSIUM NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: This publication has been reviewed according to procedures approved by a National Academy of Engineering report review process. Publication of signed work signifies that it is judged a competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the NAE. The interpretations and conclusions in such publications are those of the authors and do not purport to represent the views of the council, officers, or staff of the National Academy of Engineering. Funding for the activity that led to this publication was provided by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Department of Defense–DDR&E-Research, National Science Foundation, Department of Homeland Security, General Electric, Microsoft Corporation, Cummins, Inc., John A. Armstrong, and other individual donors. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10102-6 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium ORGANIZING COMMITTEE PABLO G. DEBENEDETTI (Chair), Class of 1950 Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering, Princeton University LUIS A. NUNES AMARAL, Associate Professor, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University ALLAN J. CONNOLLY, General Manager, Power Generation Systems Engineering, GE Energy STEPHEN S. INTILLE, Technology Director, House_n Consortium, Department of Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology KELVIN H. LEE, Associate Professor, School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Cornell University GARRICK E. LOUIS, Associate Professor, Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia VISVANATHAN RAMESH, Department Head, Real-Time Vision and Modeling, Siemens Corporate Research, Inc. AMY SMITH, Instructor, Edgerton Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN M. VOHS, Carl V. Patterson Professor and Chair, Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Pennsylvania Staff JANET R. HUNZIKER, Senior Program Officer VIRGINIA R. BACON, Senior Program Assistant

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium Preface In 1995, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) initiated the Frontiers of Engineering Program, which brings together about 100 young engineering leaders for annual symposia to learn about cutting-edge research and technical work in different fields of engineering. On September 22–24, 2005, NAE held its eleventh U.S. Frontiers of Engineering Symposium at GE Global Research Center in Niskayuna, New York. Speakers were asked to prepare extended summaries of their presentations, which are reprinted here. The intent of this volume, and of the volumes that preceded it in the series, is to convey the excitement of this unique meeting and to highlight cutting-edge developments in engineering research. GOALS OF THE FRONTIERS OF ENGINEERING PROGRAM The practice of engineering is continually changing. Engineers today must be able not only to thrive in an environment of rapid technological change and globalization, but also to work on interdisciplinary teams. Cutting-edge research is being done at the intersections of engineering disciplines, and successful researchers and practitioners must be aware of developments and challenges in areas other than their own. At the three-day U.S. Frontiers of Engineering Symposium, 100 of this country’s best and brightest engineers, ages 30 to 45, have an opportunity to learn from their peers about pioneering work being done in many areas of engineering. The symposium gives engineers from a variety of institutions in academia, industry, and government, and from many different engineering disciplines, an opportunity to make contacts with and learn from individuals whom they would

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium not meet in the usual round of professional meetings. This networking may lead to collaborative work and facilitate the transfer of new techniques and approaches. It is hoped that the exchange of information on current developments in many fields of engineering will lead to insights that may be applicable in specific disciplines The number of participants at each meeting is limited to 100 to maximize opportunities for interactions and exchanges among the attendees, who are chosen through a competitive nomination and selection process. The choice of topics and speakers for each meeting is made by an organizing committee composed of engineers in the same 30- to 45-year-old cohort as the participants. Each year different topics are covered, and, with a few exceptions, different individuals participate. Speakers describe the challenges they face and communicate the excitement of their work to a technically sophisticated but nonspecialized audience. Each speaker provides a brief overview of his/her field of inquiry; defines the frontiers of that field; describes experiments, prototypes, and design studies that have been completed or are in progress, as well as new tools and methodologies, and limitations and controversies; and summarizes the long-term significance of his/ her work. THE 2005 SYMPOSIUM The four general topics for the 2005 meeting were: ID and verification technologies, engineering for developing communities, the engineering of complex systems, and energy resources for the future (see Appendix C). The session on ID and verification technologies was based on the proliferation of cheap and novel sensors, faster computers, and intelligent algorithms that have improved monitoring capabilities and made it possible to identify and track objects and people. Two of the talks in this session were on face recognition systems—an overview highlighting the difficulties and a presentation on challenge problems and independent evaluations in automatic face recognition. A third talk focused on advances in RFID and activity recognition and their potential for improving the quality of life for elderly people. The second session, engineering for developing communities, addressed challenges and opportunities for engineering to alleviate poverty and promote sustainability. Presentations included: a description of the DISACARE wheelchair project in Zambia, an example of how technologies can be adapted to address local conditions; the impact of engineering advances on the safe water system program of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; a discussion of sustainable development through green engineering; and a paper on solar electricity markets in developing nations to illustrate the value of making sustainability science a guiding scientific principle. What do metabolic pathways and ecosystems, the Internet, and the propaga-

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium tion of HIV infection have in common? The session on the engineering of complex systems suggested answers to this question. The presentations provided an overview of theoretical and experimental tools that are enabling us to tackle more systematically the challenges posed by complex systems. Speakers described the emergence of network theory, one of the most visible components of the body of knowledge that can be applied to the description, analysis, and understanding of complex systems; the engineering of biological systems; and agent-based modeling, which can be used to study a wide variety of systems, from ant colonies, trader behavior in financial systems, and traffic patterns to urban growth and the spread of epidemics. An additional paper on a mathematical formulation of language evolution, which was on the original program but was not presented at the meeting, is included in this volume. The final session, on energy resources for the future, included presentations on organic-based solar cells, research on hydrogen production and storage sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, and the future of fuel cells. Every year, a distinguished engineer addresses the participants at dinner on the first evening of the symposium. The speaker this year, Shirley Ann Jackson, president of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, delivered an inspirational talk entitled, “Engineering for a New World.” She linked the critical issues facing us with the importance of nurturing and encouraging the capacity for innovation in future engineers and scientists. The full text of Dr. Jackson’s remarks is included in this volume. NAE is deeply grateful to the following organizations for their support of the 2005 U.S. Frontiers of Engineering Symposium: GE, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, U.S. Department of Defense-DDR&E Research, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, National Science Foundation, Microsoft Corporation, Cummins Inc., and Dr. John A. Armstrong and other individual donors. NAE would also like to thank the members of the Symposium Organizing Committee (p. iv), chaired by Professor Pablo Debenedetti, for planning and organizing the event.

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium Contents ID AND VERIFICATION TECHNOLOGIES         Introduction Stephen S. Intille and Visvanathan Ramesh   3     Ongoing Challenges in Face Recognition Peter N. Belhumeur   5     Designing Biometric Evaluations and Challenge Problems for FaceRecognition Systems P. Jonathon Phillips   15     Large-Scale Activity-Recognition Systems Matthai Philipose   23 ENGINEERING FOR DEVELOPING COMMUNITIES         Introduction Garrick E. Louis and Amy Smith   35     Challenges in Implementation of Appropriate Technology Projects: The Case of the DISACARE Wheelchair Center in Zambia Kurt L. Kornbluth and Philip Osafo-Kwaako   37     Engineering Inputs to the CDC Safe Water System Program Daniele S. Lantagne   45

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium     Sustainable Development Through the Principles of Green Engineering Julie Beth Zimmerman   53     Science and Engineering Research That Values the Planet Daniel M. Kammen and Arne Jacobson   59 ENGINEERING COMPLEX SYSTEMS         Introduction Luis A Nunes Amaral and Kelvin H. Lee   71     Complex Networks: Ubiquity, Importance, and Implications Alessandro Vespignani   75     The Promise of Synthetic Biology Jay D. Keasling   83     Population Dynamics of Human Language: A Complex System Natalia L. Komarova   89     Agent-Based Modeling as a Decision-Making Tool Zoltán Toroczkai   99 ENERGY RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE         Introduction Allan J. Connolly and John M. Vohs   111     Future Energy John K. Reinker   113     Organic Semiconductors for Low-Cost Solar Cells Michael D. McGehee   119     Research and Development at the U.S. Department of Energy on Hydrogen Production and Storage Sunita Satyapal   131     Fuel Cells: Current Status and Future Challenges Stuart B. Adler   143

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Frontiers of Engineering: Reports on Leading-Edge Engineering from the 2005 Symposium DINNER SPEECH         Engineering for a New World Shirley Ann Jackson   155 APPENDIXES         Contributors   169     Program   177     Participants   181

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