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EVALUATING PROGRESS OF THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM METHODS AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Division on Earth and Life Studies Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. NNH07CC79B, TO#1 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Admin- istration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 987-0-309-10826-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-10826-8 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap. edu. Cover design by Van Nguyen. Copyright 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en- gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Coun- cil is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON STRATEGIC ADVICE ON THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN, Chair, University of California, San Diego CHRISTOPHER O. JUSTICE, Vice Chair, University of Maryland, College Park JOHN B. CARBERRY, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Wilmington, Delaware ROBERT E. DICKINSON, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia JAMES W. HURRELL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado JEANINE A. JONES, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento ROGER E. KASPERSON, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts CHARLES KOLSTAD, University of California, Santa Barbara MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor PAOLA MALANOTTE-RIZZOLI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus GUIDO D. SALVUCCI, Boston University, Massachusetts SUSAN E. TRUMBORE, University of California, Irvine T. STEPHEN WITTRIG, BP, Naperville, Illinois Liaisons Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate ANTONIO BUSALACCHI, University of Maryland, College Park Board on Energy and Environmental Systems MARTHA A. KREBS, California Energy Commission, Sacramento Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change THOMAS J. WILBANKS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee Staff ANNE M. LINN, Study Director GREGORY H. SYMMES, Deputy Executive Director BYRON MASON, Program Associate JODI BOSTROM, Research Associate iv

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Acknowledgments T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical com- ments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: Adrian R. Chamberlain, Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc., Fort Collins, Colorado David J.C. Constable, GlaxoSmithKline, King of Prussia, Pennsylvania Sharon A. Cowling, University of Toronto, Canada Malcolm R. Currie, Currie Technologies Inc., Chatsworth, California Thomas E. Graedel, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Katharine L. Jacobs, University of Arizona, Tucson Diana M. Liverman, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Elizabeth L. Malone, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland Aristides A.N. Patrinos, Synthetic Genomics Inc., Rockville, Maryland David A. Randall, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado Robert A. Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts v

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vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kenneth H. Brink, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, appointed by the Divison on Earth and Life Studies, and George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia, ap- pointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for mak- ing certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 7 Climate Change Science Program, 8 Organization of the Report, 12 PART I: METHOD AND RESULTS 2 PROCESS FOR EVALUATING PROGRESS: TASK 1A 17 What Can Be Evaluated, 17 Application of the NRC (2005) Evaluation Framework, 20 Evaluating Progress Based on Program Results, 23 Conclusions, 32 3 PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF CCSP PROGRESS 35 Evaluation Approach, 35 Results of the Stage 1 Evaluation, 37 Overarching Conclusions, 41 PART I REFERENCES 47 vii

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viii CONTENTS PART II: DETAILED SUPPORTING ANALYSIS 4 PROGRESS TOWARD THE RESEARCH ELEMENTS 51 Atmospheric Composition, 52 Climate Variability and Change, 57 Water Cycle, 65 Land Use and Land Cover Change, 70 Carbon Cycle, 76 Ecosystems, 84 Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change, 87 Preliminary Assessment of the Overarching Goals: An Example, 93 5 PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES 99 Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management, 99 Modeling, 107 Decision Support Resources, 111 Communications, 115 International Cooperation, 118 PART II REFERENCES 121 APPENDIXES A Status of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products 139 B Supplemental Information on Human Contributions and Responses 143 C Matrix to Evaluate CCSP Progress 151 D Workshop Participants 159 E Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 161 F Acronyms and Abbreviations 169