ENERGY FUTURES AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION

Challenges for China and the United States

Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States

Development, Security and Cooperation

Policy and Global Affairs

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

In collaboration with

CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
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Committee on Energy Futures and Air Pollution in Urban China and the United States Development, Security and Cooperation Policy and Global Affairs In collaboration with THE NATIoNAl ACADEmIES PrESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by funding from the National Academies. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Suggested citation: National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council. 2008. Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution Challenges for China and the United States. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-11140-9 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-11140-4 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2008 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina- tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON ENERGY FUTURES AND AIR POLLUTION IN URBAN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES U.S. Committee John WATSON, Chair, Desert Research Institute, Nevada Dave ALLEN, University of Texas at Austin, Texas Roger BEZDEK, Management Information Services, Inc., Washington, D.C. Judith CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Nevada Bart CROES, California Air Resources Board, California Glen DAIGGER, CH2M Hill, Inc., Colorado David HAWKINS, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C. Philip HOPKE, Clarkson University, New York Jana MILFORD, University of Colorado at Boulder, Colorado Armistead RUSSELL, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia Jitendra J. SHAH, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Michael WALSH, Consultant, Virginia Staff Jack FRITZ, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering (through April 2006) Lance DAVIS, Executive Officer, National Academy of Engineering Proctor REID, Director, Program Office, National Academy of Engineering John BORIGHT, Executive Director, International Affairs, National Research Council Derek VOLLMER, Program Associate, Policy and Global Affairs, National Research Council Chinese Committee ZHAO Zhongxian, Chair, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing AN Zhisheng, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an CAI Ruixian, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing CAO Junji, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an FAN Weitang, China National Coal Association, Beijing HE Fei, Peking University, Beijing JIN Hongguang, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing TANG Xiaoyan, Peking University, Beijing WANG Fosong, Academic Divisions, Chinese Academy of Sciences 

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WANG Yingshi, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing XU Xuchang, Tsinghua University, Beijing YAN Luguang, Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences YOU Changfu, Tsinghua University, Beijing YU Zhufeng, China Coal Research Institute, Beijing i

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Preface In relation to studies and understanding of broad energy and pollution man- agement issues, the U.S. National Academies have had an on-going program of cooperation with the Chinese Academies (Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering) for a number of years. Joint study activities date to the late 1990s and led to the publication in 2000 of Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States. This volume was the first exami- nation of the broad energy questions facing both nations at the turn of the new millennium. The Energy Futures study was followed in 2003 with a study publication titled Personal Cars and China, which sought to provide insight to the Chinese government in the inevitable development of a private car fleet. And, in the fall of 2003, the Chinese and U.S. Academies organized an informal workshop in Beijing to review progress made to date in China in managing urban airsheds. This resulted in a proceedings publication titled Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China; The Challenges Ahead, published in 2004. As time has evolved it has become abundantly clear that the United States and China are inextricably intertwined through global competition for scarce energy resources and their disproportionate impact on the globe’s environmental health. These realities reinforce the need for the United States and Chinese Academies to continue to work closely together on a frequent and more intensive basis. An underlying assumption is that China can benefit from assimilating U.S. lessons learned from a longer history of dealing with the interplay between air pollution and energy production and usage. Moreover, as both countries focus on energy independence, there are significant opportunities to learn from one another and to cooperate on issues of mutual interest. ii

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iii PREFACE It is against this backdrop that the current study was developed. Following the 2003 workshop which first explored the role of urbanization in China’s energy use and air pollution, it was concluded that a full-scale consensus study should be carried out to compare the United States and Chinese experiences. Both countries’ respective Academies established committees comprised of leading experts in the fields of energy and air quality to jointly carry out this task. Specifically, this study was to compare strategies for the management of airsheds in similar locales, namely ones located in highly industrial, coal-rich areas, as exemplified by Pittsburgh and Huainan, and others located in more modern, coastal/port and car- oriented areas, as exemplified by Los Angeles and Dalian. It was anticipated that a comparative analysis focusing at the local level should reveal how national and regional (state/provincial) policies affect local economies and their populations. Visits to all four cities by the U.S. and Chinese committee members were organized to learn as much as possible about the experiences of each city. The teams met with city government officials, local university and research personnel, and with key private-sector actors. The teams toured local industrial plants, power plants, research laboratories, transportation control centers, and air quality moni- toring facilities. In order to understand local policy and compliance aspects, the teams also met with local, regional, and national regulatory officials. This report has been prepared on the basis of those visits, as well as on the basis of the pro- fessional expertise of the U.S. and Chinese committee members and the trove of data available on worldwide energy resources and consumption and environmental regimes and challenges in the United States and China. This study could not examine in detail the related and increasingly significant issue of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change. We do, however, attempt to highlight the fact that this will be a central issue, perhaps the issue, in discussions of energy and air pollution in the future. We also give attention to opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions and some of the strategies that cities are able to and are already employing. This is an area where continued cooperation between the U.S. and Chinese Academies will be particularly use- ful. Similarly, we did not focus on the impacts of long-range pollution transport, but we acknowledge that this is an important global issue, and one that links our two countries. As the goals and priorities of both countries evolve with respect to energy and air pollution, it is clear that there will be a number of different strategies avail- able, though certainly no magic bullets. This large and diverse bilateral effort was designed to represent the different (and sometimes competing) viewpoints that might support these various strategies; throughout the process, each side learned valuable lessons from the other and came away with a better understanding of the circumstances unique to each country. We hope that the resultant report is of value to policy and decision makers not only in China but also in the United States, and that the lessons learned may be instructive to other countries currently experienc-

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ix PREFACE ing rapid urbanization. We were honored to serve as chairs of these distinguished committees, and we compliment the U.S. and Chinese committee members for their efforts throughout this study process. John G. Watson Zhao Zhongxian National Academy of Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences National Research Council

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Acknowledgments We wish to thank the late Alan Voorhees, member of the National Academy of Engineering, the U.S. National Academies, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Energy Foundation, and the Ford Motor Company for their financial support of this project. The committee also wishes to thank officials of the cities of Huainan and Dalian for agreeing to participate in this study and for welcoming the committee during its October 2005 study tour. In particular, we wish to thank Mayor Zhu Jili, Vice Mayor Dong Zhongbing, and the rest of the Huainan Municipal government; the CPC Huainan Committee; Huainan Mining Group; Huainan Chemical Industrial Group; the Pingwei Power Plant; Zhao Baoqing and others at the Huainan Environmental Protection Bureau; Mayor Xia Deren and the rest of the Dalian Municipal government; Hua Xiujing and others at the Dalian Environmental Protection Bureau; the Dalian Traffic Direction and Control Center; the Dalian Environmental Monitoring Center; the CAS Institute of Chemical Physics; Dalian Steel Factory; Huaneng Power Factory; and the Xianghai Thermal Power Factory. On the U.S. side, we wish to thank Lee Schipper and Wei-Shiuen Ng of EMBARQ; Dale Evarts of the U.S. EPA; Todd Johnson and Sarath Guttikunda of the World Bank; Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato; Stephen Hepler of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection; Mark Freeman and others at DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory; Cliff Davidson and others at Carnegie Mellon University; Jayme Graham, Roger Westman, and others at the Allegheny County Health Department; Rachel Filippini of the Group Against Smog and Pollution; FirstEnergy Bruce Mansfield Power Plant; U.S. Steel Clairton Works; ALCOSAN; Bellefield Boiler Plant; Dave Nolle of DQE Energy Services; Michael Kleinman, Scott Samuelson, and Barbara Finlayson-Pitts of xi

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xii PREFACE the University of California-Irvine; ARB El Monte; Elaine Chang and others at the South Coast Air Quality Management District; Art Wong and others at the Port of Long Beach; Walter Neal of the BP Refinery; Alan Foley and others at the Southeast Resource Recovery Facility; and Art Rosenfeld of the California Energy Commission. We would like to recognize the contributions made by Jack Fritz, former Staff Officer at the NAE and the original director of this study, Lance Davis and Derek Vollmer for carrying on this work, as well as Kathleen McAllister and Mike Whitaker, who assisted with research, compilation, and report review process. Cui Ping and Li Bingyu of the CAS Institute of Engineering Thermo- physics also deserve recognition for their work in coordinating the efforts of this bilateral group. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Xuemei Bai, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia; Hal Harvey, Hewlett Foundation; Jiming Hao, Tsinghua University; Peter Louie, Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department; Wei-Ping Pan, Western Kentucky University; Mansour Rahimi, University of Southern California; Kirk Smith, University of California, Berkeley; David Streets, Argonne National Laboratory; Richard Suttmeier, University of Oregon; Wenxing Wang, Global Environmental Institute; Yi-Ming Wei, Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Xiliang Zhang, Tsinghua University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom- mendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Maxine Savitz (Retired), Honeywell, Inc., and Lawrence Papay, PQR, Inc. Appointed by the National Academies, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 17 2 Energy Resources 25 3 Air Pollution: Sources, Impacts, and Effects 61 4 Institutional and Regulatory Frameworks 113 5 Energy Intensity and Energy Efficiency 161 6 Coal Combustion and Pollution Control 187 7 Renewable Energy Resources 207 8 The Pittsburgh Experience 229 9 The Huainan Experience 253 10 The Los Angeles Experience 275 11 The Dalian Experience 301 12 Findings And Recommendations 321 Appendixes A Web-Based Resources on Energy and Air Quality 339 B Alternative Energy Resources 347 C Summary of PM Source-Apportionment Studies in China 353 D Energy Conversion 365 xiii

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Acronyms and Abbreviations (NH4)2SO4 Ammonium Sulfate NH4HSO4 Ammonium Bisulfate °C Degrees Celsius µm Micrometers ACCD Allegheny Conference on Community Development, Pittsburgh, U.S. ACHD Allegheny County Health Department, Pittsburgh, U.S. ACI Activated Carbon Injection for Hg removal ANL Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. APA Administrative Procedure Act, U.S. API Air Pollution Index AQM Air Quality Management AWMA Air & Waste Management Association CAA Clean Air Act, U.S. CAAQS California Ambient Air Quality Standards, U.S. CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule, U.S. CAMD Clean Air Markets Database, U.S. CAMR Clean Air Mercury Rule, U.S. CARB California Air Resources Board, U.S. CAVR Clean Air Visibility Rule, also called Regional Haze Rule, U.S. CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences, China CBM Coal Bed Methane CCP Chinese Communist Party, China CEM Continuous Emission Monitor x

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xi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CEC California Energy Commission, U.S. CEQ Council on Environmental Quality, U.S. CHP Combined Heat and Power CCHP Combined Cooling, Heating and Power CFB Circulating Fluidized Bed coal combustion CI Compression Ignition CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality Model CMB Chemical Mass Balance receptor model CNEMC China National Environmental Monitoring Center CNG Compressed Natural Gas CO Carbon Monoxide CO2 Carbon Dioxide COG Coke-Oven Gas CSC China Standard Certification Center CTL Coal to Liquids CTM Chemical Transport Model CUEC Comprehensive Urban Environmental Control, China DE Distributed Energy production DOE Department of Energy, U.S. DOI Department of Interior, U.S. DOT Department of Transportation, U.S. DRB Demonstrated Reserve Base, U.S. EC Elemental Carbon ECL Energy Conservation Law, China EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIA Energy Information Administration, U.S. EIS Environmental Impact Statement ELI Efficient Lighting Institute, China EPA Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. EPACT Energy Policy Act of 2005, U.S. EPB Environmental Protection Bureau, China ERS Environmental Responsibility System, China ESP Electrostatic Precipitator FBC Fluidized Bed Combustion FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, U.S. FGD Flue Gas Desulfurization FON Friends of Nature, China FYP Five-Year Plan, China g/km Grams per Kilometer

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xii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS GASP Group Against Smog and Pollution, Pittsburgh, U.S. GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility, China GHG Greenhouse Gases H 2O Water/Water Vapor HAPs Hazardous Air Pollutants Hg Mercury HC Hydrocarbon HEW Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, U.S. HTS High-Temperature Superconductivity transmission lines ICR Information Collection Request IEA International Energy Agency IFC International Finance Corporation IGCC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle coal power plant IMPROVE Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments, U.S. kHz Kilohertz kW Kilowatt LADWP Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, U.S. LAPCD Los Angeles Air Pollution Control District, U.S. LEVII Low Emission Vehicle Phase II, U.S. LFSO Limestone with Forced Oxidation SO2 removal LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MANE-VU Mid Atlantic, Northeast Visibility Union, U.S. MLR Ministry of Land and Resources, China MOST Ministry of Science and Technology, China NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard, U.S. NAE National Academy of Engineering, U.S. NAMS National Air Monitoring Stations, U.S. NAS National Academy of Science, U.S. NBB National Biodiesel Board, U.S. NCC National Coal Council, U.S. NDRC National Development and Reform Commission, China NEET New and Emerging Environmental Technologies Data Base, U.S. NEPA National Environmental Policy Act, U.S. NETL National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. NGO Non-Governmental Organization NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S.

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xiii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS NH3 Ammonia NH4NO3 Ammonium Nitrate NMCEP National Model City of Environmental Protection, China NO Nitrogen Oxide NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide NO3- Nitrate NOx Oxides of Nitrogen (Nitrogen Oxides) NPC National Peoples’ Congress, China NPC National Petroleum Council, U.S. NRC National Research Council, U.S. NSF National Science Foundation, U.S. NSPS New Source Performance Standards, U.S. NSR New Source Review, U.S. ns Nanosecond O3 Ozone OBD On-Board Diagnostics for motor vehicle monitoring ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. OTAG O3 Transport Assessment Group, U.S. OTR O3 Transport Region, U.S. PAC Powdered Activated Carbon for Hg removal PAMS Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations, U.S. PaDNR Pennsylvania Department of Natural Resources, U.S. Pb Lead PC Pulverized Coal power plant PM Particulate Matter, includes TSP, PM10, PM2.5, and UP PM10 Particles with aerodynamic diameters < 10 µm PM2.5 Particles with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 µm (also fine PM) PMF Positive Matrix Factorization receptor model POLA Port of Los Angeles, U.S. PRC Peoples Republic of China QESCCUE Quantitative Examination System on Comprehensive Control of Urban Environment RH Relative Humidity Renminbi, Chinese currency unit ≈0.13 dollar. Also termed the yuan. RMB RPO Regional Planning Organization, U.S. RVP Reid Vapor Pressure gasoline fuel specification SBQTS State Bureau of Quality and Technical Standards, China SCAG Southern California Association of Governments, U.S.

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xix ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS SCAQMD South Coast Air Quality Management District, Los Angeles, U.S. SCE Southern California Edison, U.S. SCIO State Council Information Office, China SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction NOx removal SCRAM Support Center for Regulatory Monitoring, U.S. SEPA State Environmental Protection Agency, China SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission, China SERRF Southeast Resource Recovery Facility, California, U.S. SETC State Economic and Trade Commission, China SIP State Implementation Plan, U.S. SLAMS State and Local Air Monitoring Stations, U.S. SNCR Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction SO2 Sulfur Dioxide SO42– Sulfate SoCAB South Coast Air Basin, Los Angeles and surrounding cities, U.S. STN Speciation Trends Network, U.S. SUV Sports Utility Vehicle TOD Transit-Oriented Development TSP Total Suspended Particulate, particles with aerodynamic diameters ~<30 µm UCS Union of Concerned Scientists UN United Nations UNCHE United Nations Conference on the Human Environment UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UP Ultrafine Particles with aerodynamic diameters < 0.1 µm U.S. United States USC Ultra SuperCritical coal combustion USC United Smoke Council, U.S. USDA Department of Agriculture, U.S. USFS Forest Service, U.S. USGS Geological Survey, U.S. VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Volatile Organic Compound WHO World Health Organization WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership, U.S.

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