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Toward a New National Weather Service
ASSESSMENT OF NEXRAD COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER SERVICES
Prepared by the
NEXRAD Pane}
National Weaker Service Modernization Committee
of the
Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
June 1995
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a
Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their
use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy
has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts
is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy
of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal
government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national
needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold
Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the
services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health
of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate
the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising
the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council
has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy
of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr.
Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DGNW-0-00041 between the National Academy of Sciences
and the Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Copynght 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Available in limited supply from:
Transition Program Office
National Weather Service, NOAA
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 713-1090
Printed in the United States of America
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PANEL ON THE ASSESSMENT OF NEXRAD COVERAGE
and ASSOCIATED WEATHER SERVICES
WILLIAM E. GORDON, Distinguished Professor Emeritus
Rice University, Chairman
Space Physics and Electrical Engineering,
JAMES E. EVANS, Leader, Weather Sensing Group, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
ROBERT 'l. SERAFIN, Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research
PAUL L. SMITH, Director, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, South Dakota School of Mines and
Technology
MARILYN M. WOLFSON, Staff Member, Weather Sensing Group, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology
Advisors
R. 'JEFFREY REELER, Research Engineer, National Center for Atmospheric Research
BLAMES W. WILSON, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Pane' Staff
FLOYD F. HAUTH, Study Director
MERCEDES ILAGAN, Study Associate
COURTLAND S. LEWIS, Consultant
· · -
111
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION COMMITTEE
CHARLES L. HOSLER, '1R., Professor of Meteorology Emeritus, Pennsylvania State University,
Chairman (term ended January 3 i, 1995)
RICHARD A. ANTHES, President, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
WILLIAM D. BONNER, Director of Programs, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(term began February I, 1995)
JOHN P. BRADLEY, President, Murray and Trettel, Inc.
ROBERT F. BRAMMER, Vice President and Director, TASC (term began February i, 1995)
KENNETH C. CRAWFORD, Director, Oklahoma Climatological Survey
JOHN A. DUTTON, Dean, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, Pennsylvania State University (term
ended January 3I, 1995)
DARA ENTEKHABI, Associate Professor, Hydroclimatology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE J. G1,EGHORN, Vice President and Chief Engineer (retired), TRW Space and Technology
Group
WILLIAM E. GORDON, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Space Physics and Electrical Engineering,
Rice University
JENANNE L. MURPHY, Vice President, Hughes Information Technology Corporation (term began
February I, 1995)
VERONICA F. NIEVA, Vice President and Director, Organizational and Management Research Group,
WESTAT, Tnc.
ROBERT if. SERAFIN, Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research (term as Chairman began
February I, 1995)
MARILYN M. WOLFSON, Staff Member, Weather Sensing Group, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology
ARTHUR I. ZYGlELBAUM, Senior Member of the Technical Staff, Office of the Director, let
Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Committee Staff
FLOYD F. HAUTH, Study Director (began May, 1994)
MERCEDES ILAGAN, Study Associate
1V
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Preface
This report responds to a request from the Secretary of Commerce who, in a letter dated August
Id, 1994, asked the National Research Council's (NRC's) National Weather Service Modernization
Committee (NWS MC) to conduct a study on the adequacy of coverage of the Next Generation Weather
Radar (NEXRAD3 with respect to a congressional requirement that the system result in "no degradation
of service." This request was further amended by an October 5, 1994, agreement between the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Congressman Bud Cramer of Alabama.
Accordingly, the NRC established a pane! of experts to (~) review the new radar's technical
specifications and network spatial coverage, (2) evaluate and compare the detection capabilities and
coverage of the pre-NEXRAD and NEXRAD radars, (3) assess the performance of both networks from
the standpoint of significant weather events, and (4) establish general criteria for evaluating the
adequacy of coverage of the NEXRAD network and identifying areas where service might be degraded
when the old radars are decommissioned. A site-by-site evaluation using these criteria was excluded
from the panel's task, but the data and procedures to conduct such evaluations are included in this
report.
The NWSMC has been functioning for more than 5 years under contracts between the NOAA
and the NRC. Five substantive reports have been issued about the ongoing modernization of the
National Weather Service (NWS) and various aspects of its planning ant! implementation. The
NEXRAD program has been evaluated and reported upon in four of the five reports (NRC, 1991,
1992, 1994a, and 1994b), and certification criteria for critical phases of the modernization were
addressed in NRC, 1993.
The pane! includes three NWSMC members and two additional engineers and scientists chosen
for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance of viewpoints and expertise.
Two special technical advisors, R. Jeffrey Keeler and lames Wilson, participated fully in all pane!
activities and contributed substantially to the written report.
The pane! conducted five formal meetings and several informal, opportune meetings to gather
and analyze technical data and other information, to develop evaluation criteria, and to assess the
adequacy of weather radar coverage for the nation. As part of this effort, the pane} developed criteria
for use by me NOAA to adjudicate possible degradation issues related to decommissioning of existing
radars and services provided by associated weather offices.
The pane} appreciates Me cooperation and extensive assistance provided by members of NOAA:
the NEXRAD Joint System Program Office (ISPO), the NEXRAD Operational Support Facility, and
the NWS Headquarters staff. In particular, the pane! recognizes the provision of technical materials
and special brief ings by David Smiley, Robert Elvander, furls Petriceks (SR] international, contractor
to the NEXRAD ISPO), Donald Burgess, Paul Polger, and Richard Lane. Special thanks also to the
Publications Department, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory, for all of the
illustrations of weather phenomena and to Steven Zubrick, Weather Service Forecast Office, Sterling,
Virginia, for providing He NEXRAD display for the cover.
v
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V1
Preface
The pane! is also indebted to Peter Ray, of Florida State University, for his briefing about
related studies; and to the many NWS radar operators, university, and private-sector researchers who
reviewed information about radar characteristics and the ability of various radars to detect significant
weather phenomena across the United States.
The pane! thanks He members of the NWSMC for their review of the report and for Heir
support and guidance during its preparation. Finally, the pane! acknowledges the excellent support of
three NRC staff members- Floyd F. Hauth, Study Director; Mercedes Ilagan, Study Associate; and
Susan Coppinger, Administrative Assistant as well as that of consultant/writer, Courtiand S. Lewis,
in carrying out the panel's work. Their services in making logistical arrangements, conducting liaison
with federal agencies, universities, and the private sector and in preparing the report were invaluable.
William E. Gordon
Chairman, NEXRAD Pane!
National Weather Service Modernization Committee
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Contents
Executive Summary
1
Introduction
Background: Modernization of the National Weather Service, 5
Charge to the Committee, 6
Study Process, 7
2 Radar Network Configuration and Detection Capabilities
Network Coverage at 10,000 Feet Above Site Level, 8
Calculated Versus Observed Detection Ranges, 1 ~
Comparison of Detection Coverage by Pre-NEXRAD and
NEXRAD Networks, 18
Impact of NEXRAD Communications Links and Forecast
Office Staffing, 35
Comparison of Weather Services: Pre-NEXRAD and NEXRAD
Composite System Considerations, 36
Network Considerations, 37
Warning Performance, 39
Guidelines for Assessing Possible Degradation of Service in Specific Areas
Consideration of Public Concerns, 47
Assessment Criteria, 49
5
References
Acronyms
Glossary
Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions, 51
Recommendations, 52
Appendixes
A Criteria for Evaluation of a Weaker Radar System, 65
B Documents Requesting NRC Study, 87
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1
4
8
36
47
51
54
58
59
63
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· · -
V111
Contents
C
D
E
F
National Research Council's Statement of Task for the Pane!
on the Adequacy of NEXRAD, 95
Drawings and Descriptions of Weather Phenomena, 96
Reviewers and Contributors to Detection Tables 2-l and 2-2, 102
Distance of Old Radar from Nearest NEXRAD
in Descending Order by Distance, 103
