Page 115

References

Adams, R.M., K.J. Bryant, and R. Weiher, 1995. Value of improved long-range weather information. Contemporary Economic Policy 13: 10-19.

Alterholt, T.B., M.W. LeChevalier, W.D. Norton, and J.S. Rosen. 1998. Effect of rainfall on giardia and crypto. J. Amer. Water Works Assoc. 90: 66-80.

Anderson, R.M. and R.M. May. 1992. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford: Science Publications.

Ashford, O.M. 1985. Prophet or Professor: The Life and Work of Lewis Fry Richardson. Bristol and Boston: A. Hilger.

Asnis D.S., R. Conetta, A.A. Teixeira, G. Waldman, and B.A. Sampson. 2000. The West Nile Virus Outbreak of 1999 in New York: the Flushing Hospital experience. Clin. Infect. Dis. 30: 413-418.

Aspray, W. 1990. John von Neumann and the Origins of Modern Computing. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Baker, M.N., 1948. The quest for pure water. J. Amer. Water Works Assoc. Vol 1., second edition.

Barnston, A.G., A. Leetmaa, V.E. Kousky, R.E. Livezey, E.A. O'Lenic, H. van den Dool, A.J. Wagner and D.A. Unger. 1999. NCEP forecasts for the El Niño of 1997-98 and its U.S. impacts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 80: 1829-1852.

Barzun, J. 2000. From Dawn to Decadence. New York: Harper-Collins.

Bastien, J.W. 1998. The Kiss of Death: Chagas' Disease in the Americas. Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press.

Beck, L.R. 2000. Remote sensing and human health: New sensors and new opportunities. Emerging Infectious Diseases 6(3): 217-226.

Bertrand, M.R., and M.L. Wilson. 1996. Microclimate-dependent survival of adult Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in nature: life cycle and study design implications. J. Med. Entomol. 33: 619-627.

Bissell, R. 1983. Delayed-impact infectious disease after a natural disaster. J. Emergency Medicine 1: 59-66.

Bouma, M.J., H.E. Sondorp, and H.J. van der Kaay. 1994. Climate change and periodic epidemic malaria. Lancet 343: 1440.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 115
Page 115 References Adams, R.M., K.J. Bryant, and R. Weiher, 1995. Value of improved long-range weather information. Contemporary Economic Policy 13: 10-19. Alterholt, T.B., M.W. LeChevalier, W.D. Norton, and J.S. Rosen. 1998. Effect of rainfall on giardia and crypto. J. Amer. Water Works Assoc. 90: 66-80. Anderson, R.M. and R.M. May. 1992. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford: Science Publications. Ashford, O.M. 1985. Prophet or Professor: The Life and Work of Lewis Fry Richardson. Bristol and Boston: A. Hilger. Asnis D.S., R. Conetta, A.A. Teixeira, G. Waldman, and B.A. Sampson. 2000. The West Nile Virus Outbreak of 1999 in New York: the Flushing Hospital experience. Clin. Infect. Dis. 30: 413-418. Aspray, W. 1990. John von Neumann and the Origins of Modern Computing. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Baker, M.N., 1948. The quest for pure water. J. Amer. Water Works Assoc. Vol 1., second edition. Barnston, A.G., A. Leetmaa, V.E. Kousky, R.E. Livezey, E.A. O'Lenic, H. van den Dool, A.J. Wagner and D.A. Unger. 1999. NCEP forecasts for the El Niño of 1997-98 and its U.S. impacts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 80: 1829-1852. Barzun, J. 2000. From Dawn to Decadence. New York: Harper-Collins. Bastien, J.W. 1998. The Kiss of Death: Chagas' Disease in the Americas. Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press. Beck, L.R. 2000. Remote sensing and human health: New sensors and new opportunities. Emerging Infectious Diseases 6(3): 217-226. Bertrand, M.R., and M.L. Wilson. 1996. Microclimate-dependent survival of adult Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in nature: life cycle and study design implications. J. Med. Entomol. 33: 619-627. Bissell, R. 1983. Delayed-impact infectious disease after a natural disaster. J. Emergency Medicine 1: 59-66. Bouma, M.J., H.E. Sondorp, and H.J. van der Kaay. 1994. Climate change and periodic epidemic malaria. Lancet 343: 1440.

OCR for page 115
Page 116 Bouma, M.J., and H.J. van der Kaay. 1996. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the historic malaria epidemics on the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka: an early warning system for future epidemics? Trop. Med. Int. Health. 1: 86-96. Bouma, M.J., and C. Dye. 1997. Cycles of malaria associated with El Niño in Venezuela. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 278: 1772-1774. Bouma, M.J., G. Poveda, W. Rojas, D. Chavasse, M. Quiñones, J. Cox, and J. Patz, 1997. Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Trop. Med. Int. Health. 2: 1122-27. Bradley D.J. 1993. Human tropical diseases in a changing environment, p. 146-162. In: Environmental Change and Human Health. J. Lake, G. Brock, K. Ackrill, eds. Ciba Foundation Symposium, London, UK: CIBA Foundation. Briese T., X.Y. Jia, C. Huang, L.J. Grady, and W.I. Lipkin. 1999. Identification of a Kunjin/West Nile-like flavivirus in brains of patients with New York encephalitis. Lancet 354: 1261-1262. Brown, J., S. Li and N. Bhagabati. 1999. Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: a response to global warming? Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences 96: 5565. Campbell, I., and J. McAndrews. 1993. Forest disequilibrium caused by rapid Little Ice Age cooling. Nature 366: 336-338. Carmichael, A.G. 1991. Contagion theory and contagion practice in fifteenth-century Milan. Renaissance Quarterly. 44: 213-56. Cassedy, J.H. 1986. Medicine and American Growth. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Chan, N.Y., K.L. Ebi, F. Smith, T.F Wilson, and A.E. Smith. 1999. An integrated assessment framework for climate change and infectious diseases. Environmental Health Perspectives 107: 329-337. Childs, J.E, T.G. Ksiazek, C.F. Spiropoulou, J.W. Krebs, S. Morzunov, G.O. Maupin, K.L. Gage, P.E. Rollin, J. Sarisky, and R.E. Enscore. 1994. Serologic and genetic identification of Peromyscus maniculatus as the primary rodent reservoir for a new hantavirus in the southwestern United States. J. Infect. Dis. 169: 1271-1280. Cipolla, C.M. 1981. Fighting the Plague in Seventeenth-Century Italy. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Coleman, W. 1987. Koch's comma bacillus: The first year. Bulletin of the History of Medicine 61: 315-342. Colwell, R.R. 1996. Global climate and infectious diseases: The cholera paradigm. Science 274: 2025-2031. Colwell, R.R., and D.J. Grimes, eds. 2000. Nonculturable Microorganisms in the Environment. Washington D.C.: ASM Press. 354 pp. Corradi, A., 1972. Annali delle epidemie occorse in Italia, dalle prime memorie fino al 1850. Five volumes. Bologna: Forni. Creighton, C. 1969. A History of Epidemics in the British Isles. Two volumes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Crick, H., and T. Sparks. 1999. Climate change related to egg-laying trends. Nature 399: 423-424. Daubney, R., J.R. Hudson, and P.C. Garnham. 1931. Enzootic hepatitis or Rift Valley fever: An undescribed disease of sheep, cattle and man from East Africa. J. Pathol. Bacteriol. 89: 545-579. Davies, F.G., K.J. Linthicum, and A.D. James. 1985. Rainfall and epizootic Rift Valley fever. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 63: 941-963. Davis, M., and C. Zabinski. 1992. Changes in geographical range resulting from greenhouse warming: Effects of biodiversity in forests, pp. 297-308 in Global Warming and Biological Diversity, R. Peters and T. Lovejoy, eds. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press. Dennis, D.T. 1998. Epidemiology, Ecology, and Prevention of Lyme Disease. in D.W. Rahn and J. Evans (eds). Lyme Disease. Philadelphia: American College of Physicians. Desaive, J-P. 1972. Médecins, climat et épidemies à la fin du XVIIIe siècle. Paris and the Hague: Mouton & Co.

OCR for page 115
Page 117 Dunne, J. 2000. Climate Change Impacts on Community and Ecosystem Properties: Integrating Manipulations and Gradient Studies in Montane Meadows. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of California, Berkeley. Eisenberg, J.N., E.Y.W. Seto, A.W. Olivieri, and R.C Spear. 1996. Quantifying water pathogen risk in an epidemiological framework. Risk Anal. 16: 549-563. Epstein, P.E. 2000. Is global warning harmful to human health? Scientific American August: 50-57. Evans, A.S. 1978. Causation and disease: a chronological journey. American Journal of Epidemiology 108: 249-258. Ewald, P.W. 1994. Evolution Infectious Disease. New York: Oxford University Press. Famine Early Warning System. 1999. FEWS Current Vunerability Assessment Guidance Manual. U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. Farmer, P., 1999. Infections and Inequality: The Modern Plagues. Berkeley: University of California Press. Fayer, R., ed. 1997. Cryptosporidium and Cryptosporidiosis. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. Fein, J.S. and P.L. Stephens, (eds.) 1987. Monsoons. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Fleming, J.R. 1990. Meteorology in America, 1800-1870. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Flynn N.M., P.D. Hoeprich, M.M. Kawachi, K.K. Lee, R.M. Lawrence, E. Goldstein, G.W. Jordan, R.S. Kundargi, and G.A. Wong. 1979. An unusual outbreak of windborne coccidioidomycosis. New England Journal of Medicine 301(7): 358-361. Focks D.A., E. Daniels, D.G. Haile, and J.E. Keesling. 1995. A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: Literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 53: 489-506. Focks D.A., R.A. Brenner, E. Daniels, and J. Hayes. 2000. Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source reduction efforts. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 62: 11-18. Freimuth, V., H.W. Linnan, and P. Potter. 2000. Communicating the threat of emerging infections to the public. Emerging Infectious Diseases 6(4): 337-346. Friedman, L.N, M.T. Williams, T.P. Singh, and T.R. Frieden. 1996. Tuberculosis, AIDS, and death among substance abusers on welfare in New York City. New England Journal of Medicine 334: 828-833. Friedman, R.M. 1989. Appropriating the Weather: Vilhelm Bjerknes and the Construction of a Modern Meteorology. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press. Frisinger, H.H. 1977. The History of Meteorology to 1800. American Meteorological Society: Historical monograph series. New York: Science History Publications. Garbe, P.L., B.J. Davis, J.S. Weisfeld, L. Markowitz, P. Miner, F. Garrity, J.M Barbaree, and A.L. Reingold. 1985. Nosocomial Legionnaires' disease: epidemiologic demonstration of cooling towers as a source. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 254: 521-524. Giacomini, T., O. Axler, J. Mouchet, and P. Lebrin. 1997. Pitfalls in the diagnosis of airport malaria: Seven cases observed in the Paris area in 1994. Scandinavian Journal Infectious Diseases 29: 433-435. Gillet, J.D., 1974. Direct and indirect influences of temperature on the transmission of parasites from insects to man. p79-95 in: The Effects of Meteorological Factors upon Parasites . ( A.E.R. Taylor and R. Muller, eds.) Oxford: Blackwell Scientific Publications. Giorgi, F., and L.O. Mearns. 1991. Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: A review. Rev. of Geophysics 29: 191-216. Glacken, C.J. 1967. Traces on the Rhodian Shore; Nature and Culture in Western Thought from Ancient Times to the End of the Eighteenth Century. Berkeley: University of California Press. Glantz, M.H. 1996. Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

OCR for page 115
Page 118 Glass G.E., J.E. Cheek, J.A. Patz, T.M. Shields, T.J. Doyle, D.A. Thoroughman, D.K. Hunt, R.E. Enscore, K.L. Gage, C. Irland, C.J. Peters, and R. Bryan. 2000. Using remotely sensed data to identify areas at risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Emerging Infectious Diseases 6: 238-247. Goddard, L, S.J. Mason, S.E. Zebiak, C.F. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M.A. Cane. 2001. Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions. International Jour. of Climatology (In Press). Gordon, S.M., C.J. Carlyn, L.J. Doyle, C.C. Knapp, D.L. Longworth, G.S. Hall, and J.A. Washington. 1996. The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae with decreased susceptibility to ciprofoxacin in Cleveland, Ohio: Epidemiology and risk factors. Annals of Internal Medicine 125: 465-470. Grabherr, G., M. Gottfried, and H. Pauli. 1994. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369: 448-449. Grant, E. 1994. Planets, Stars and Orbs: The Medieval Cosmos, 1200 -1687. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry. 1999. Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and U.S. landfalling strike probability for 2000. Dept. of Atmos. Sci., Colo. State Univ., Ft. Collins, Colo., 8 December, 19 pp. Greenwood, B.M., I.S. Blakebrough, A.K. Bradley, S. Wali, and H.C. Whittle. 1984. Meningococcal disease and season in sub-Saharan Africa. Lancet 1: 1339-1342. Gubler, D.J. 1988. Dengue. Pp. 223-260. in The Arboviruses: Epidemiology and Ecology, Vol. II, T.P. Monath, ed. Boca Raton, Fla.: CRC Press. Guillet P., M.C. Germain, T. Giacomini, F. Chandre, M. Akogbeto, O. Faye, A. Kone, L. Manga, and J. Mouchet. 1998. Origin and prevention of airport malaria in France. Tropical Medicine and International Health 3: 700-705. Haas, C.N, J.B. Rose, and C.P. Gerba, eds. 1999. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Hairston, N.G., 1973. The dynamics of transmission, pp250-336 in: N. Ansari, ed. Epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis . Basel: Karger. Halstead, S.B. 1988. Pathogenesis of dengue: Challenges to molecular biology. Science 239: 476-481. Hammer, G., D.P. Holzworth, and R. Stone. 1996. The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Aust. Journ. of Agric. Res. 47: 717-737. Hammer, G. 2000. Applying seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural and natural ecosystems—A synthesis. Chapter 27 in Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting to Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems—the Australian Experience. G. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell, eds. The Netherlands: Kluwer. Hancock, C.M., J.B. Rose, and M. Callahan. 1998. Crypto and Giardia in U.S. groundwater. J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 90(3): 58-61. Hannaway, C.C. 1972. The Société Royale de Médecine and epidemics in the Ancien Régime. Bulletin of the History of Medicine 46: 257-273. Hannaway, C., 1993. Environment and miasmata. Pp. 292-308 in W.F. Bynum and R. Porter, eds. Companion Encyclopedia of the History of Medicine. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press. Harte, J., and R. Shaw. 1995. Shifting dominance within a montane vegetation community: Results of a climate warming experiment. Science 267: 876-880. Hay, S.I., S.E. Randolph, and D.J. Rogers. 2000. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems in Epidemiology. New York: Academic Press. Hirsch, A. 1883-1886. Handbook of Geographical and Historical Pathology, translated by Charles Creighton. The volumes. London. Hornick, R.B, S.I. Music, R. Wenzel, R. Cash, J.P. Libonati, and T.E. Woodward. 1971. The Broad Street pump revisited: Response of volunteers to ingested cholera vibrios. Bull. N.Y. Acad. Med., 47(10): 1181-1191.

OCR for page 115
Page 119 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. WG I contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers. Available online at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (Full technical report to be released in 2001.) Janssen, M., and P. Martens. 1997. Modelling malaria as a complex adaptive system. Artificial Life 3: 213-236. Jetten, T.H., and D.A. Focks. 1997. Changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming scenarios. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 57: 285-297. Jia, X.Y., T. Briese, I. Jordan, A. Rambaut, H.C. Chi, J.S. Mackenzie, R.A. Hall, J. Scherret, W.I. Lipkin. 1999. Genetic analysis of West Nile New York 1999 encephalitis virus. Lancet 354: 1971-1972. Jordanova, L.J. 1979. Earth science and environmental medicine: The synthesis of the late enlightenment. Pp. 119-146 in Images of the Earth: Essays in the History of the Environmental Sciences. L.J. Jordanaova and R. Porter, eds. London: British Society for the History of Science. Justice, C.O., J.R.G. Townshend, B.N. Holben, and C.J. Tucker. 1985. Analysis of the phenology of global vegetation using meteorological satellite data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 8: 1271-1318. Kaneko, T., and R.R. Colwell. 1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113: 24-32. Kattenberg, A., F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, R.J. Stouffer, T. Tokioka, A.J. Weaver, and T.M.L. Wigley. Climate models—projections of future climate. Pp. 285-357 . in Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Kenyon, T.A., S.E. Volway, W.W. Ihle, I.M. Onorato, and K.G. Castro. 1996. Transmission of multi-drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis during a long airplane flight. New England Journal of Medicine 334: 933-938. Kinsella, R.A. 1935. Report on the St. Louis Outbreak of Encephalitis, U.S. Treasury Department, Public Health Bulletin, No. 214, 117 pp. Knapp, J.D., K.K. Fox, D.L. Trees, and W.L. Whittington. 1997. Fluoroquinoline resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Emerging Infectious Diseases 3: 33-39. Krause, R.M. 2001. Microbes and emerging infections: The compulsion to become something new. Am. Soc. Microbiol. News 67(1): 15-20. Krieger, N. 1994. Epidemiology and the web of causation: Has anybody seen the spider? Social Science and Medicine 39: 881-903. Kunitz, S.J. 1987. Explanations and ideologies of mortality patterns. Population and Development Review 13: 379-407. Kutzbach, G. 1979. The Thermal Theory of Cyclones: A History of Meteorological Thought in the Nineteenth Century. Historical Monograph Series. Boston: American Meteorological Society. Lanciotti, R.S., J.T. Roehrig, V. Deubel, J. Smith, M. Parker, K. Steele, B. Crise, K.E. Volpe, M.B. Crabtree, J.H. Scherret, R.A. Hall, J.S. MacKenzie, C.B. Cropp, B. Panigrahy, E. Ostlund, B. Schmitt, M. Malkinson, C. Banet, J. Weissman, N. Komar, H.M. Savage, W. Stone, T. McNamara, and D.J. Gubler. 1999. Origin of the West Nile virus responsible for an outbreak of encephalitis in the northeastern United States. Science 286: 2333-2337. Langford, I.H., and G. Bentham. 1995. The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales. Int. J. Biometeorol. 38(3): 141-147. Levins, R., T. Auerbach, U. Brinckmann, I. Eckhardt, P. Epstein, C. Makhoul, C. Albuquerque de Passos, C. Puccia, A. Spielman, and M. Wilson. 1994. The emergence of new diseases. American Scientist 82: 52-60. Lindblade, K.A., E.D. Walker, A.W. Onapa, J. Katungu, and M.L. Wilson. 1999. Highland malaria in Uganda: Prospective analysis of an epidemic associated with El Nino. Trans. Roy. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 39: 480-487.

OCR for page 115
Page 120 Lindsay, S.W., L. Parson, and C. J. Thomas. 1998. Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, using climate data. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London 265: 847-854. Linthicum, K.J., A. Anyamba, C.J. Tucker, P.W. Kelley, M.F. Myers, and C.J. Peters. 1999. Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya. Science 285: 397-400. Linthicum K.J., C.L. Bailey, F.G. Davies, A. Kairo, and T.M. Logan. 1988. The horizontal distribution of Aedes pupae and their subsequent adults within a flooded dambo in Kenya: implications for Rift Valley fever virus control. J. Am. Mosq. Control Assoc. 4: 551-554. Lisle, J.T., and J.B. Rose. 1995. Cryptosporidium contamination of water in the USA and UK: A mini-review. J. Water SRT—Aqua 44: 103-117. Lobitz, B., L. Beck, A. Huq, B. Wood, G. Fuchs, A.S.G. Faruque, and R. Colwell. 2000. Climate and infectious disease: Use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 97: 1438-1443. Lorenz, E.N. 1982. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34: 505-513. Lorenz, E.N. 1993. The Essence of Chaos. Seattle: University of Washington Press. MacKenzie, W.R., N.J. Hoxie, M.E. Proctor, S. Gradus, K.A. Blair, D.E. Peterson, J.J. Kazmierczak, D.G. Addiss, K.R. Fox, J.B.Rose, and J.P. David. 1994. A massive outbreak in Milwaukee of Cryptosporidium infection transmitted through the public water supply. N. Engl. J. Med.. 331(3): 161-167. Martens, P. 1998. Health and Climate Change: Modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion. London: Earthscan. Martens P., R.S. Kovats, S. Nijhof, P. deVries, M.T. J. Livermore, D.J. Bradley, J. Cox, and A.J. McMichael. 1999. Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Global Environmental Change 9: 89-107. Mason, S.J., L. Goddard, N.E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Sun, and P.A. Arkin. 1999. The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 80: 1853-1873. Mata L. 1994. Cholera El Tor in Latin America, 1991-1993. Annals of the New York Academy of Science 740: 55-68. May, J.M. 1958. The Ecology of Human Disease. New York: M.D. Publications. Mayer, J.D. 2000. Geography, ecology, and emerging diseases. Social Science and Medicine 50: 937-952. McCutchan, M.H., B. Meisner, F. Fujioka, J. Benoit, and B. Ly. 1991. Monthly fire weather forecasts. Fire Management Notes. 52(3): 41-47. McIntosh, B.M., and P.G. Jupp. 1981. Epidemiological aspects of Rift Valley fever in South Africa with references to vectors. Contrib. Epidemiol. Biostat. 3: 92-99. McMichael, A.J. 1994. Molecular epidemiology: new pathway or new travelling companion? American Journal of Epidemiology 140: 1-11. Meegan, J.M. and C.L. Bailey. 1988. Rift Valley fever. Pp. 51-76 in Arboviruses Epidemiology and Ecology, Vol IV, T. P. Monath, ed. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. Meinke, H., and Z. Hochman. 2000. Using seasonal climate forecasts to manage dryland crops in northern Australia—experience from the 1997/98 season. in Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting to Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems—the Australian Experience, G. Hammer, N. Nicholls, and C. Mitchell, eds. The Netherlands: Kluwer. Miller B.R., R.S. Nasci, M.S. Godsey, H.M. Savage, J.J. Lutwama, R.S. Lanciotti, and C.J. Peters. 2000a. First field evidence for natural vertical transmission of West Nile virus in Culex univittatus complex mosquitoes from Rift Valley province, Kenya. Am. J. of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 62(2): 240-246.

OCR for page 115
Page 121 Miller J.M., T.W. Tam, S. Maloney, K. Fukuda, N. Cox, J. Hockin, D. Kertesz, A. Klimov, and M. Cetron. 2000b. Cruise ships: high-risk passengers and the global spread of new influenza viruses. Clin Infect Dis. 31: 433-438. Mjelde, J.W., T.N. Thompson, and C.G. Coffman. 1997. Using Southern Oscillation information for determining corn and sorghum profit-maximizing input levels in east-central Texas. J. of Production Agriculture. 10: 168-178. Mobarak, A.B. 1982. The schistosomiasis problem in Egypt. Am. J. of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 31: 87-91. Mollison, D. ed. 1995. Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. MMWR, 2000. Update: West Nile Virus activity—Eastern United States. Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 49: 1044-1047. Molineaux, L. 1988. The epidemiology of human malaria as an explanation of its distribution, including some implications for its control. In: W.H. Wernsdorfer, I. McGregor, eds. Malaria: Principle and Practice of Malariology. Edinburgh: Chruchill Livingstone Monath, T.P. 1980. Chapter 6, Epidemiology, pp. 263-266 in St. Louis Encephalitis, T.P. Monath (ed.) Washington, DC. American Public Health Association. Monath T.P. and T.F. Tsai. 1987. St. Louis encephalitis: Lessons from the last decade. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 37(3): 40S-59S. Monmonier, M. 1999. Air Apparent: How Meteorologists Learned to Map, Predict, and Dramatize Weather. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Moore, C.G., and C.J. Mitchell. 1997. Aedes albopictus in the United States: Ten Year Presence and public health implications. Emerging Infectious Diseases 3: 329-334. Moore C.G., B.L. Cline, E. Ruiz-Tibén, D. Lee, H. Romney-Joseph, and E. Rivera-Correa. 1978. Aedes aegypti in Puerto Rico: Environmental determinants of larval abundance and relation to dengue virus transmission. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 27: 1225-1231. Morse, S.S. 1995. Factors in the emergence of infectious diseases. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1(1). Motes M.L., A. DePaola, D.W. Cook, J.E. Veazey, J.C. Hunsucker, W.E. Garthright, R.J. Blodgett, and J. Chirtel. 1998. Influence of water temperature and salinity on Vibrio vulnificus in Northern Gulf and Atlantic Coast oysters (Crassostrea virginica). Applied and Environmental Microbiology 64(4): 1459-1465. Mount, G.A., D.G. Haile, and E. Daniels. 1997. Simulation of management strategies for the black-legged tick (Acari: Ixodidae) and the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi. J. Med. Entomol. 90: 672-683. Musil, 1999. Physicians for Social Responsibility (Robert Musil, Exec. Director). Press Conference, National Press Club, Washington, D.C., October 9, 1999. Myeni, R., C. Keeling, C. Tucker, G. Asrar, and R. Nemani. 1997. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386: 698-699. Nasci, R.S. and C.G. Moore. 1998. Vector-borne disease surveillance and natural disasters. Emerging Infectious Diseases 4: 333-334. National Research Council. 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council. 1992. Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the U.S. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council. 1998. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. P.C. Stern and W.E. Easterling, eds. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council. 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Nebeker, F. 1995. Calculating the Weather: Meteorology in the 20th Century. New York: Academic Press.

OCR for page 115
Page 122 Nichol, S.T, C.F. Spiropoulou, S. Morzunov, P.E. Rollinc, T.G. Ksiazek, H. Feldmann, A. Sanchez, J. Childs, S. Zaki, and C.J.Peters. 1993. Genetic identification of a hantavirus associated with an outbreak of acute respiratory illness. Science 262: 615-618. Noji, E.K., ed. 1997. The Public Health Consequences of Disasters. New York: Oxford University Press. Nutton, V. 1983. The seeds of disease: An explanation of contagion and infection from the Greeks to the Renaissance. Medical History 27: 1-34. O'Neill, K.R., S.H. Jones, and D.J. Grimes. 1992. Seasonal incidence of Vibrio vulnificus in the Great Bay Estuary of New Hampshire and Maine. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 58: 3257-3262. Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO). 1998. El Niño and its Impact on Health. Report presented to the 122nd Executive Assembly. Document CE122/10. Parmenter R.R., J.W. Brunt, D.I. Moore, and S. Ernest. 1993. The hantavirus epidemic in the South-west: Rodent population dynamics and the implications for transmission of hantavirus-associated adult respiratory distress syndrome (HARDS) in the Four Corners region. Sevilleta LTER Publication No. 41. Parmesan, C. 1996. Climate and species' range. Nature 382: 765. Parson, E.A., and K. Fisher-Vanden. 1997. Integrated assessment of global climate change. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 22. Pascual, M., X. Rodo, S.P. Ellner, R. Colwell, and M.J. Bouma. 2000. Cholera dynamics and El-Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science 289: 1766-1769. Patz, J.A., W.J.M. Martens, D.A. Focks, and T.H. Jetten. 1998. Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environ. Health Perspectives 106: 147-152. Pelling, M. 1993. Contagion/germ theory/specificity, in Companion Encyclopedia of the History of Medicine, Two volumes. W. F. Bynum and R. Porter, eds., London: Routledge. Peters, C.J. and J.M. Meegan. 1981. Rift Valley fever. Pp. 403-420m in CRC Handbook Series in Zoonoses. J. H. Steele, ed. Boca Raton, Fla.: CRC Press. Pickering, H., M. Okongo, A. Ojwiya, D. Yirrell and J. Whitworth. 1997. Sexual networks in Uganda: Casual and commercial sex in a trading town. AIDS Care 9: 199-207. Pielke, R.A., Jr., and R.A. Pielke, Sr. 1997. Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. Pielke, R.A., Sr., R.L. Walko, L.T. Steyaert, P.A. Vidal, C.T. Liston, W.A. Lyons, and T.N. Chase. 1999. The influence of anthropogenic landscape changes on weather in south Florida. Monthly Weather Review 127: 1663-1674. Porter, T.M. 1986. The Rise of Statistical Thinking: 1820-1900. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Price, M., and N. Waser. 1998. Effects of experimental warming on plant reproductive phenology in a subalpine meadow. Ecology 79: 1261-1271. Prothero, R.M. 1965. Migrants and Malaria. London: Longmans. Pullan, B. 1992. Plague and perceptions of the poor in early modern Italy. Pp. 101-123 in Epidemics and Ideas: Essays on the Historical Perception of Pestilence. T. Ranger and P. Slack, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Pulwarty, R.S., and W.E. Riebsame. 1997. The political ecology of vulnerability to hurricane-related hazards. Pp 185-214 in Hurricanes: Climate and Socio-economic Impacts. H. Diaz, and R. S. Pulwarty, eds. Heidelberg: Pringer-Verlag. Pyle, G.F. 1969. The diffusion of cholera in the United States in the nineteenth century. Geographical Analysis, 1: 59-75. Quinn, W.H., and V.T. Neal. 1992. The historical record of El Niño events. Pp. 623-648 in Climate Since A.D. 1500. R.S. Bradley and P.D. Jones, eds. London and New York: Routledge. Reeves, W.C., J.L. Hardy, W.K. Reisen, and M.M. Milby. 1994. Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses. Journal of Medical Entomology 31: 323–332.

OCR for page 115
Page 123 Regli, S., J.B. Rose, C.N. Haas, and C.P. Gerba. 1991. Modeling the risk from Giardia and viruses in drinking water. J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 83: 76-84. Reisen W.K., M.M. Milby, S.B. Presser, and J.L. Hardy. 1992. Ecology of mosquitoes and St. Louis encephalitis virus in the Los Angeles Basin of California, 1987-1990. J. Med. Entomol. 29: 582-598. Reisen W.K, J.O. Lundstrom, T.W. Scott, B.F. Eldridge, R.E. Chiles, R. Cusack, V.M. Martinez, H.D. Lothrop, D. Gutierrez, S.E. Wright, K. Boyce, and B.R. Hill. 2000. Patterns of avian seroprevalence to western equine encephalomyelitis and Saint Louis encephalitis viruses in California, USA. J. Med. Entomol. 37: 507-527. Reiter, P. 2000. From Shakespeare to Defore: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age. Emerging Infectious Diseases 6(1): 1-11. Riley, J.C. 1987. The Eighteenth-Century Campaign to Avoid Disease. New York: St. Martin's Press. Roads, J.O., S.C. Chen, F.M. Fujioka, and R.E. Burgan. 2000. Development of a seasonal fire severity forecast for the contiguous United States. Third Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. American Meteorological Society, 10-12 January 2000, Long Beach, Calif. Robard, D. 1981. The role of regional body temperature in the pathogenesis of disease. New England Journal of Medicine 305: 808-814. Rogers, D.J., and S.E. Randolph. 1993. Distribution of tsetse and ticks in Africa: Past, present and future. Parasitology Today 9: 266-271. Rogers, D.J., and S.E. Randolph. 2000. The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289: 1763-1766. Ropelewski C.F., and M.S. Halpert. 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southen Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115: 1606-1626. Rose, J.B. 1997. Environmental ecology of Cryptosporidium and public health implications. Annual Review of Public Health 4. Rose, J.B. and C.P. Gerba. 1991. Use of risk assessment for development of microbial standards. Water Sci. Technol. 24: 29-34. Rose, J., C.N. Haas, and S. Regli. 1991. Risk assessment and control of waterborne giardiasis. Am. J. Pub. Health 1: 709-713. Rose, J.B., S. Daeschner, D.R. Easterling, F.C. Curriero, S. Lele, and J.A. Patz. 2000. Climate and waterborne disease outbreaks. J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 9: 77-87. Rosenfeld, D. 2000. Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. Science. 287: 1793-1796. Rotmans, J. 1998. Methods for IA: the challenges and opportunities ahead. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 3(3): 155-179. Rotmans, J. and M. Van Asselt. 1999. Integrated assessment modelling. Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective. in P. Martens and J. Rotmans, eds. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Saleska, S., J. Harte, and M. Torn. 1999. The effect of experimental ecosystem warming on net CO2 fluxes in a montane meadow. Global Change Biology 5(2): 125-142. Saunders, M.A., R.E. Chandler, C.J. Merchant, and F.P. Roberts. 2000. Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27: 1147-1150. Schneider, S. 1997. Integrated assessment modeling of climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions? Environmental Modelling and Assessment 2(4): 229-250. Schneider, E., R.A. Hajjeh, R.A. Spiegel, R.W. Jibson, E.L. Harp, G.A. Marshall, R.A. Gunn, M.M. McNeil, R.W. Pinner, R.C. Baron, L.C. Hutwagner, C. Crump, L. Kaufman, S.E. Reef, G.M. Feldman, D. Pappagianis, and S.B. Werner. 1997. A coccidioidomycosis outbreak following the Northridge, California, earthquake. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 277: 904-908.

OCR for page 115
Page 124 Schulman, J.L., and E.D. Kilbourne. 1963. Experimental transmission of influenza virus infection in mice: Some factors affecting the incidence of transmitted infection. J. Exp. Med. 118: 267-275. Seargeant, F. 1982. Hippocratic Heritage: A History of Ideas about Weather and Human Health. New York: Pergamon Press. Sethi, I., and A.K. Jain, ed. 1991. Artificial Neural Networks and Pattern Recognition: Old and New Connections. Amserdam: Elsevier. Shen, K., and J. Harte. 2000. Ecosystem Climate Manipulations. Pp. 353-369 in Methods in Ecosystem Science. O. Sala, R. Jackson, H. Mooney, and R. Howarth eds. New York: Springer-Verlag. Sheppard, P.M., W.W. Macdonald, R.J. Tonn, and B. Grabs. 1969. The dynamics of an adult population of Aedes aegypti in relation to dengue haemorrhagic fever in Bangkok. J. Anim. Ecol. 38: 661-702. Shimshony, A., and R. Barzilai. 1983. Rift Valley fever. Adv. Vet. Sci. Comp. Med. 27: 347-425. Shope R, 1991. Global climate change and infectious diseases. Environmental Health Perspectives 96: 171-174. Shope, R.E., and T.F. Tsai. 1998. Diseases transmitted primarily by arthropod vectors: Viral infections, p. 290 , in Wallace RB (ed.) Public Health and Preventive Medicine, 14th ed. Stamford, Conn.: Appleton & Lange. Slack, P. 1985. The Impact of Plague in Tudor and Stuart England. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. Smith, H.V., and J.B. Rose. 1998. Waterborne cryptosporidiosis: Current status. Parasitology Today 14(1): 14-22. Smith, W.D., 1979. The Hippocratic Tradition. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press. Smith C.E., R.R. Beard, H.G. Rosenberger, and E.G. Whiting. 1946. Effect of season and dust control on coccidioidomycosis. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 132: 833-838. Solow, A.R., R.F. Adams, K.J. Bryant, D.M. Legler, J.J. O‘Brien, B.A. McCarl, W. Nayda, and R. Weiher. 1998. The value of improved ENSO prediction to U.S. Agriculture. Climatic Change 39: 47-60. Southwood, T.R.E., G. Murdie, M. Yasuno, R.J. Tonn, and P.M. Reader. 1972. Studies on the life budget of Aedes aegypti in Wat Samphaya, Bangkok, Thailand. Bull. World Health Organization 46: 211-226. Stone, R.C., G.C. Hammer, and T. Marcussen. 1996. Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384: 252-255. Susser, M. 1985. Epidemiology in the United States after World War II: the evolution of technique. Epidemiologic Reviews 7: 47-77. Susser, M. 1986. The logic of Sir Karl Popper and the practice of epidemiology. American Journal of Epidemiology 124: 711-718. Susser, M., and E. Susser. 1996. Choosing a future for epidemiology, I: Eras and paradigms. American Journal of Public Health 86: 668-673. Susser, M. 1998. Does risk factor epidemiology put epidemiology at risk? Peering into the future. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 52: 608-618. Sutherst, R.W., G.F. Maywald, and D.B. Skarratt. 1995. Predicting insect distributions in a changed climate. Pp. 60-91 in Insects: A Changing Environment, R. Harrington and N.E. Stork, eds. 17th Symposium of the Royal Entomological Society of London. Thomas, C. and J. Lennon. 1999. Birds extend their range northwards. Nature 399: 213. Tompkins, A.M. 1986 OCR for page 115
Page 125 Tulu, A. 1996. Determinants of malaria transmission in the highlands of Ethiopia: The impact of global warming on morbidity and mortality ascribed to malaria. Thesis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1989. National primary drinking water regulations; filtration and disinfection; turbidity; Giardia lamblia, viruses, Legionella, and heterotrophic bacteria, Federal Register 54(124): 27486-27541. Vandenbroucke, J.P. 1989. Those who were wrong. American Journal of Epidemiology 130: 3-5. Walford, C. 1879. Famines of the World, Past and Present. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 42: 79-275. Walsh, J.F., D.H. Molineaux, and M.H. Birley. 1993. Deforestation: effects on vector-borne disease. Parasitology 106: 55-75. Watkins, W.D., and V.J. Cabelli. 1985. Effect of fecal pollution on Vibrio parahaemolyticus densities in an estuarine environment. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 49: 1307-1313. Watson, G., R.E. Shope, and M. Kaiser. 1972. An ectoparasite and virus survey of migratory birds in the eastern Mediterranean. Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Siberian Branch, pp.176-180. Webb, T., III., 1986. Is vegetation in equilibrium with climate? How to interpret late-Quaternary pollen data. Vegetation 67: 75-91. Webster R.G., W.J. Bean, O.T. Gorman, T.M. Chambers, and Y. Kawaoka. 1992. Evolution and ecology of influenza A viruses. Microbiol Rev. 56(1): 152-179. Weiher, R.F., ed. 1999. Improving El Nino Forecasting: The Potential Economic Benefits. U.S. Department of Commerce: Washington, D.C. Weniger, B.G., M.J. Blaser, J. Gedrose, E.C. Lippy, and D.D. Juranek. 1983. An outbreak of water-borne giardiasis associated with heavy water runoff due to warm weather and volcanic ashfall. Amer. J. Public Hlth. 73: 868-872. White, K.L. 1991. Healing the Schism: Epidemiology, Medicine, and the Public's Health. New York: Springer. Whitnah, D.R. 1965. A History of the United States Weather Bureau. Urbana: University of Illinois Press. WHO, 1985. Ten years of oncho, control in West Africa: review of work of the OCP in the Volta River Basin area from 1974 to 1984. OCP/GVA/85.1B, WHO, Geneva Switzerland, 113 pp. WHO, 1998a Dengue and Dengue Haemorragic Fever. Fact Sheet No 117. Available online at: http://www.who.int/inf-fs/en/fact117.html WHO, 1998b. Malaria. Fact Sheet No 94. Available online at: http://www.who.int/inf-fs/en/fact094.html WHO, 1999a. Influenza. Fact Sheet No 211. Available online at: http://www.who.int/inf-fs/en/fact211.html WHO, 1999b. The WHO Influenza Programme. Available online at: http://www.who.int/inf-fs/en/fact212.html WHO, 1999c. Weekly Epidemiological Record. 6 August. 74: 257-264 . Available online at http://www.who.int/wer/ http://www.who.int/wer/ Wigley, T.M.L., M.J. Ingram, and G. Farmer, eds. 1992. Climate and History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Wilson, M.L. 1994. Rift Valley fever virus ecology and the epidemiology of disease emergence. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 740: 169-180. Wilson M.L. 1998. Distribution and abundance of Ixodes scapularis (Acari:Ixodidae) in North America: ecological processes and spatial analysis. J. Med. Entomol. 35: 446-457. Winslow, C. A-E. 1980. The Conquest of Epidemic Diseases. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Wilson, M., R. Levins, and A. Spielman. 1994. Disease in Evolution: Global Changes and Emergence Infectious Diseases. New York: New York Academy of Sciences. 503 pp. Woodruff, D. 1992. Wheatman, a decision support system for wheat management in subtropical Australia. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 43: 1485-1499.

OCR for page 115
Page 126 World Meteorological Organization. 1999. The 1997-1998 El Nino Event: A Scientific and Technical Retrospective. WMO: Geneva. Wuhib, T., T.M. Silva, R.D. Newman, L.S. Garcia, M.L. Pereira, C.S. Chaves, S.P. Wahlquist, R.T. Bryan, and R.L. Guerrant. 1994. Cryptosporidial and microsporidial infections in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients in northeastern Brazil. Journal Infectious Diseases 170: 494-497.