|
Items in cart [0] |
Questions? Call 888-624-8373 |
| Copyright © 2009. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Privacy Statement |
Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 113
5
Differential Technology Impacts:
Black Workers' Female Workers' and
Labor Force Entrants
Technological change may differentially affect workers from various
demographic or ethnic groups. In this chapter, we briefly examine the
effects of new technology on three such groups: black workers, female
workers, and labor force entrants. The evidence, limited as it is, indicates
that the direct effects of technological change on these groups will be
minor. Nevertheless, concerns have long been expressed (see Har-
rington, 1962; the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and
Economic Progress, 1966) that employment opportunities for young and
minority workers in the future U.S. economy may be reduced as a result
of technological change. Those concerns have not diminished since the
1960s unemployment rates among minorities in the United States,
especially rates for black youths, have shown a disturbing pattern of
increase relative to those for whites. What are the likely impacts of
technological change on the employment prospects of minorities and
labor force entrants, as well as for women?
BLACK WORKERS
Technological change may affect the employment prospects of black
workers in at least three ways:
The results of a less detailed analysis of the employment effects of technology for
Hispanic workers are reported later in this chapter.
~3
OCR for page 114
114 TECHNOLOGYAND EMPLOYMENT
1. They may be concentrated in occupations and industries that are
particularly vulnerable to technological change.
2. Once displaced by technological change, black workers may face
particular difficulties in obtaining new jobs.
3. The economic welfare of black workers also may be affected by the
impact of technological change on the skills required for employment. If
technological change increases the skill requirements of jobs and black
workers are not well prepared educationally to deal with such changes,
they may be detrimentally affected by the introduction of new technology.
Some scholars (e.g., Kasarda, 1986) have suggested that the concentra-
tion of minority populations in central cities in which high-skill jobs are
being created may restrict employment opportunities for blacks and
Hispanics.
Each of these possibilities is discussed more fully below.
Occupational forecasts by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1986b)
can be combined with data on the racial composition of occupations from
the 1980 Census of Population of the Bureau of the Census to reveal the
race (black or white) and gender of workers in occupations identified by
BLS as likely to experience absolute employment declines due to
technological change in the United States. These data provide rough
estimates of the potential negative effect of technological change on black
employment opportunities. Eleven occupations (out of more than 350
occupations with at least 25,000 workers for which BLS prepares 1995
forecasts) are projected to experience absolute declines through 1995 as a
result of technological change (see Table 5-1, later in this chapter). The 1 1
occupations (discussed in Chapter 4) include several clerical and admin-
istrative support groups; within these groups, historical patterns of job
growth, skill requirements, and discrimination have contributed to an
overrepresentation of blacks. Blacks account for 12 percent of the
workers in these declining occupations, a slightly higher proportion than
their 11 percent share of the 1986 labor force.
Assuming that the current racial composition of employment in declin-
ing occupations remains unchanged through 1995, black employment
opportunities in these occupations could be reduced by 30,000 jobs,
admittedly a small fraction (at most 0.3 percent) of projected employment
growth through 1995 (10 million-21 million jobs).2 The BLS forecasts
have often underestimated the magnitude of declines in specific occupa-
tions' but even assuming that the magnitude of these declines is twice as
2The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1986b) published three estimates of employment
growth for 1984-1995. The bounds on the 10 million-21 million range correspond to the low
and high BLS projections.
OCR for page 115
DIFFERENTIAL TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS 1 15
large as that forecast by BLS still yields a very small impact on
employment (60,000 jobs). If the racial composition of these occupations
changes so that the share of blacks in these positions increases above
their 1980 levels, the displacement consequences of technological change
could be more severe than these projections suggest. Barring such
increases, however, the prospective negative impacts of technological
change on black employment appear to be small.3 Moreover, some
evidence suggests that the overrepresentation of blacks in these occupa-
tions has been declining rather than growing during the past two decades.
The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission's (1985) analysis
of employment trends for minority and female workers is too highly
aggregated to support strong conclusions, but it suggests that during
1967-1983 the overrepresentation of blacks in most of these occupational
categories has declined; the one exception to this trend is the share of
black women in clerical employment, which increased. If this decline in
overrepresentation continues, the adjustment of blacks to technological
change should be further eased.
Once displaced by technological change or other causes, however,
black workers do not fare as well as white workers with similar back-
grounds. As we noted in Chapter 3, Podgursky's (1987) analysis of factors
influencing the duration of displacement, which controlled for the educa-
tional attainment and other attributes of displaced workers, found that the
influence of race on the duration of unemployment outweighed that of any
other variable (including tenure in a job prior to displacement). Although
blacks account for nearly 13 percent of the total population of displaced
male, blue-collar workers, their share of the population of workers
unemployed for 52 weeks or more is 18 percent. The black-white gap is
even greater in the duration of unemployment for black service workers
and black women displaced from manufacturing and nonmanufacturing
industries.
Although the BLS forecasts suggest relatively stable employment oppor-
tunities for blacks, Kasarda (1986) has argued that the geographic implica-
tions of technological change may reduce employment opportunities for
urban minority populations. He contends that information technology has
increased job opportunities in relatively high-skill occupations located in
central cities while reducing employment opportunities in other sectors.
According to Kasarda, members of urban minority populations with limited
educational backgrounds are less likely to obtain these high-skill jobs. At the
3A similar analysis for Hispanic workers found that they were underrepresented in all of
the 11 occupations projected by BLS to decline as a result of technological change. Total
projected employment declines for Hispanics in these occupations amount to 0.1 percent of
the 1986 Hispanic labor force in the United States.
OCR for page 116
116 TECHNOLOGYAND EMPLOYMENT
same time, lower-skill manufacturing jobs are moving out of central cities
reducing the accessibility of such jobs to minority workers.
Kasarda's argument rests on several assumptions about the skill require-
ments of new technologies that were discussed in Chapter 4. Contrary to his
assumptions, technological change does not appear to result in dramatic
increases in the skills required for entry-level jobs. Most workers are able to
obtain computer and other "new technology" skills through on-thejob
training and experience. Technological change does, however, appear to
increase the importance of basic skills for individuals seeking employment at
any point during their careers. To the extent that black or other minority job
seekers do not have strong basic skills, they will face difficulties in both the
urban and suburban job markets.
The geographic component of Kasarda's hypothesis also is largely
untested. Recent empirical work (Ellwood, 1986) has questioned the
significance of geographic proximity, as opposed to race, in an analysis of
the effect of distance and travel time on the employment opportunities of
men in Chicago. Race appeared to be more significant than proximity to
employment in explaining differences in the employment rates of other-
wise comparable young white and black workers. This and other evidence
(e.g., on the duration of unemployment for displaced black workers)
suggests that a significant share of the difficulties faced by blacks in
adjusting to technological change, whether they are displaced workers or
entrants seeking employment, is due to racial discrimination. Policies to
combat discrimination should reduce the difficulties faced by minority
workers in adjusting to technological change.
As is generally the case in considering the employment impacts of
technological change, the state of the overall economy plays a major role in
the way new technology affects minority employment prospects. Full
employment is especially beneficial for minority workers. The effect of a
full-employment economy on job opportunities for blacks, and especially for
young blacks, is illustrated by analyses of minority unemployment in New
England, where the unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in 1985. Although
unemployment among blacks (7.7 percent) remained nearly twice as high as
that among whites (4.3 percent), the unemployment rate for blacks in New
England was about half that for blacks nationwide (15.1 percent). The
unemployment rate for black teenagers in New England, although still very
high (20.9 percent), was far lower than the national rate of 40.2 percent. In
addition, the gap between the unemployment rates of white teens and black
teens narrowed to 9.6 percentage points in New England, far lower than the
national gap of 24.5 points (Harrington and Sum, 19861.
Technological change should not greatly affect the employment prospects
of black workers. Nonetheless, for blacks as well as whites who lack basic
skills, such prospects are dim, and they would remain so for the foreseeable
OCR for page 117
DIFFERENTIAL TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS 1 17
future even if technological change were somehow to stop tomorrow.
Policies that reduce occupational segregation and discrimination in the labor
market will aid the adjustment of minority groups to technological change
and will benefit society as a whole; a more robust economy will greatly
improve minority employment opportunities. Yet, limited access by urban
minority populations to quality education in basic skills impairs the ability of
these groups to adapt to the requirements of a technologically advanced
workplace. The data in Chapter 3 suggest that black and Hispanic workers
continue to lag behind white workers in educational attainment, although the
gap is steadily shanking. Continued efforts to close this gap, combined with
improved access to basic skills training for employed or displaced workers,
are crucial in easing the burden of adjustment to technological change for
black and Hispanic workers.
FEMALE WORKERS
There is insufficient evidence to make even a cautious estimate of the
long-term effects of technological change on employment for women. The
National Research Council's Panel on Technology and Women's Employ-
ment (1986) reviewed trends for 37 clerical occupations representing
approximately 29 percent of women's employment and concluded that
there was little likelihood of "massive technologically induced unemploy-
ment" (p. 125~. Still, the panel noted that the introduction of advanced
information and computer technologies thus far had resulted in relative,
and in some cases absolute, declines in back-office clerical jobs while
supporting increases in positions requiring greater contact with custom-
ers. Minority women are particularly affected by this shift; they are more
highly concentrated in occupations (i.e., clerical and administrative
support occupations such as those of postal clerk, file clerk, data-entry
operator, and telephone operator) in which employment is projected
either to grow slowly or decline (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1986b).
BLS's 1995 occupational projections also suggest that technological
change will reduce growth in a number of occupations in which women
historically have been heavily represented. Five of the 11 occupations
that BLS predicts will experience an absolute employment decline as a
result of technological change have work forces in which 75 percent or
more of the workers are women (Table 5-1~. Assuming that the current
gender composition of these occupations is unchanged by 1995,4 these
4The National Research Council's Committee on Women's Employment and Related
Social Issues (1986) projected that declines in occupational segregation by sex would
continue through the 1980s and l990s but would occur more slowly than they had in the
1960s and 1970s.
OCR for page 118
118
o
Ct
m
~ Ct
Ct
v
~ -
of Ct
O ~
·=
no - o
~ O
o v
:~ ~
o
._
._
_
v
U' ~
c:
o
._ ~
V
C~ O
O ~L,
- 0 ~ ~
c', ~ as
. V (O I
.c
~ V
V
~ ~ O
i, ._ ._
Ct
X ~
V)
O
V
~ v 3
~ , -
U) I ~
o ~
~ ~ no
-¢
ED
CD
_
C)
2
C)
of 3 ~ °
s o °^ |
Ct o °
~ ~ o
c:
o
._
._
Cal
o
-
c)
cd
o
v
c~ ~ ~
=.s l
~ -
c) 'e
m
Y
C~ 0
m 3 ~
c,
0 0
-
8
o
(5~ ~ ~ ~ - - - O O O
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ~
~0~0____000 ~
1 1 1 1 1 1 -
~ _ O ~ ~ c~ ox oo ~ 0 ~o
°° 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
00 ~ ~ 00 ~
_ ~ _ _ _ _ _
~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 ~
_ _ _ _
_ ~ ~ _ ~ ~, -, _ Ir) oo -
c~ ~ _ ~ ~ 00 cr,
0 ~ ~ r~ ~ - , ', _ - , ~ t_
~-1 -1-1-111
'\ ~ ~ _ ch, ~ ~ ~ _
- - - - 1 1 1 1 ~
~q
0u' 0
~ ~ c
0 ~ ~ 0
00o.Y O cd
0),O C;,
- ~ ~ ~ _ E ~ ~ ct '~ .S
c, ~ ~ ce 0 ~ >` e ~ ~ ~O
~Q ~ ~ v: u~ v: ~ ~ O ~ ~E~
0
3
m
v:
3
0
._
_
CL
0
0
u'
:-
V
u,
0
oo
_
au
0
u'
ct
c~
cd
._
ct
s~
ao
V
D
oo
C~
-
._
._
Cd
V)
O
O
Ct
m
V) d"
,J
_
. .
~ ^
v
0 ~
"c:
OCR for page 119
DIFFERENTIALTECHNOLOGYIMPACTS 119
employment declines could reduce job openings for women in these occu-
pations by approximately 115,000 jobs. Combined with losses in other
declining occupations, total reductions in job openings for women due to
technological change could reach 136,000. The total reduction in job open-
ings is approximately 0.2 percent of the projected 1995 female labor force and
roughly 0.6-1.4 percent of the projected growth in jobs through 1995; an
employment reduction of this magnitude should not pose a serious adjust-
ment problem (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1986b). The more pessimis-
tic forecasts of reduced clerical employment discussed in Chapter 4 (see
Leontief and Duchin, 1985, and Roessner et al., 1985) rely on weak
assumptions and methodologies and are not endorsed by this panel.
Like minority workers, displaced female workers experience longer spells
of unemployment than white male workers. Podgursky (1987) found that in
both blue-collar and white-collar occupations, displaced women had a higher
incidence of long-term unemployment than men. Among displaced blue-
collar workers, 37 percent of women experienced unemployment spells of 53
weeks or more versus 30 percent of men. Among white-collar workers, 26
percent of the displaced women experienced more than 53 weeks of
unemployment versus 15 percent of displaced men.
Female workers do not appear to face differentially severe employment
losses as a result of technological change. The women's job losses that are
forecast by reliable analysts are modest in size and will be offset many
times over by growth in employment opportunities for women. The
secondary educational attainment of female workers exceeds that of male
workers, which suggests that women in fact may be better prepared to
deal with the workplace of the future. Employment prospects for women
will be further improved by continued enforcement of such policies as
affirmative action, which discourage sexual discrimination and occupa-
tional segregation. Even with economic growth and reduced discrimina-
tion, however, gaining and retaining a job will be difficult for the 7 million
women workers 18 years and older (14 percent of the 1986 female labor
force) whose failure to complete high school implies weaknesses in their
basic skills (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment and
Unemployment Statistics, 19861.
LABOR FORCE ENTRANTS
Typically, individuals first enter the labor force between the ages of 16
and 24.5 For most, the early years of work are characterized by spells of
5The impact of technological change on the employment prospects for women over 16-24
years of age who enter the labor force is discussed in the previous section.
OCR for page 120
120 TECHNOLOG Y AND EMPLO YMENT
TABLE 5-2 Occupational Distribution of Labor Force Entrants
in 1983 and Total Projected Growth, by Category, 1984-1995
Occupation
1983
Employment
Ages 16-24
(%)
1984-1995
BLS Forecast
Employment
Change
(%)
Executive, administrative, and managerial
workers
Professional workers
Technicians and related support workers
Sales workers
Administrative support workers, including clerical
Private household workers
Service workers, except private household
Precision production, craft, and repair workers
Operators, fabricators, and laborers
Farming, forestry, and fishing workers
Active duty military
3.5
5.3
2.9
14.2
17.6
1.7
19.2
8.9
18.3
3.2
5.3
22.1
21.7
28.7
19.9
9.5
-18.3
21.3
11.7
7.3
-3.0
n.a.
SOURCES: The figures for 1983 employment are based on unpublished data from the
BLS January 1983 Current Population Survey and unpublished (1987) information from the
Defense Manpower Center, Arlington, Virginia. The 1984-1995 BLS forecast data are from
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1986b).
voluntary part-time or short-term employment during schooling. On
leaving school, they enter a career path that over their lifetimes will
involve working for an average of 10 employers (Hall, 19821. Most of the
jobs first held by entrants to the labor force are concentrated in service,
sales, and administrative support occupations (Table 5-21; less than 10
percent are in professional or executive categories. Over time, as entrants
gain work experience and move into craft, technical, executive, and
professional occupations, the occupational distribution of a particular
cohort of entrants comes to resemble that of the overall labor force.
How will labor force entrants be affected by technology-induced
changes in the structure of their employment opportunities? According to
BLS forecasts, only two of the entry-level occupational groups listed in
Table 5-2 (farming, forestry, and fishery workers and private household
workers) will decrease in size during the next decade for any reason,
including technological change. Steady economic growth, together with a
projected decline in the rate of growth of the labor force (see Chapter 3) from
roughly 2.3 percent per year during 1970-1986 to a projected level of roughly
1.2 percent per year during 1984-1995 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
1986b), should over entrants with basic skills reasonable prospects for
entry-level employment through the next decade. Indeed, employers who
OCR for page 121
DIFFERENTIAL TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS 121
rely on this labor pool to fill vacancies, such as the military, are likely to
encounter increased competition for these entrants.
For those entrants who lack basic skills, however, the future will be
less promising, according to COSEPUP's Panel on Secondary School
Education for the Changing Workplace (19841. Even the full-employment
economy of New England currently displays unemployment rates for
teenagers in excess of 10 percent. Many (though by no means all) of these
individuals lack the basic skills necessary to take advantage of existing
job opportunities. A full-employment economy can help many, but for
entrants with basic educational deficiencies, even a full-employment
economy may be insufficient.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
employment opportunities
