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HARDBACK + PDF your price: $58.50 add to cart HARDBACK list:$49.95 Web:$44.96 add to cart PDF BOOK your price: $38.50 add to cart PDF CHAPTERS your price: $3.50 select Rights & Permissions Free Resources PDF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PDF Report Brief Display this book on your site! Related Titles Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond Other Related Titles Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002) Ocean Studies Board (OSB) Polar Research Board (PRB) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Web Search Builder Use this book's key terms to search within this book, across our collection, or across the Web. Skim This Chapter Skim this chapter and use this chapter's key terms to search within this book. Reference Finder Paste in your own text to find books that relate to your topic. Page 223   E-mail  Facebook  Digg  Stumble  Twitter More The following HTML text is provided to enhance online readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML. Please use the page image as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy. Index A Aerosols, 83-84, 86, 138 chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165 dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144 Africa disease, 147 drought, 55, 74 Eemian climate change, 39 Younger Dryas, 33-34, 35 Agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152 see also Drought Albedo, 75, 78, 79, 86 Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 158 Annular variation, see Interannual variations Antarctica, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78, 156, 162 Younger Dryas, 26, 35 Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 Atlantic Ocean, 36-37, 38, 60-69, 71, 72, 76-77, 80-81, 82, 84, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 El Niño, impacts on, 50, 52, 110 Holocene rapid climate change, 41 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 thermohaline circulation, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156 tropical variability, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Younger Dryas, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, 47, 62, 67-69, 71, 75-76, 80-83, 84-85, 90, 108, 110, 112 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 committee research recommendations, 2, 154 modeling of, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 sea surface processes, 47, 50, 51, 79, 84 Atmospheric processes, other, 71, 73, 80-86 see also Drought; Greenhouse gases; Precipitation; Wind Page 223 Front Matter (R1-R14) Executive Summary (1-9) 1 Introduction to Abrupt Changes in the Earth's Climate (10-18) 2 Evidence of Abrupt Climate Change (19-72) 3 Processes that Cause Abrupt Climate Change (73-106) 4 Global Warming as a Possible Trigger for Abrupt Climate Change (107-117) 5 Economic and Ecological Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change (118-152) 6 Findings and Recommendations (153-167) References (168-200) Appendix A Committee and Staff Biographies (201-207) Appendix B Board Rosters (208-211) Appendix C Workshop Agenda (212-213) Appendix D Workshop Participants (214-215) Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program (216-217) Appendix F Impacts Workshop Participants (218-219) Appendix G Acronym List (220-222) Index (223-230) Color Plates (231-238)

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises Index A Aerosols, 83-84, 86, 138 chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165 dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144 Africa disease, 147 drought, 55, 74 Eemian climate change, 39 Younger Dryas, 33-34, 35 Agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152 see also Drought Albedo, 75, 78, 79, 86 Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 158 Annular variation, see Interannual variations Antarctica, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78, 156, 162 Younger Dryas, 26, 35 Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 Atlantic Ocean, 36-37, 38, 60-69, 71, 72, 76-77, 80-81, 82, 84, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 El Niño, impacts on, 50, 52, 110 Holocene rapid climate change, 41 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 thermohaline circulation, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156 tropical variability, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Younger Dryas, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, 47, 62, 67-69, 71, 75-76, 80-83, 84-85, 90, 108, 110, 112 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 committee research recommendations, 2, 154 modeling of, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 sea surface processes, 47, 50, 51, 79, 84 Atmospheric processes, other, 71, 73, 80-86 see also Drought; Greenhouse gases; Precipitation; Wind

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises circulation, 46, 54, 78, 80-86 (passim), 87 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 modeling, other, 75 clouds, 71, 73, 80, 83-84, 85, 86, 87 committee research recommendations, 3 fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 ice core evidence, 6, 19, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32 ozone layer depletion, 58 water vapor, 71, 83-84 B Biodiversity, 17, 108, 128, 136-137, 138, 141, 147, 157 Boreholes, 21, 22 C Carbon dating, see Radiocarbon measurements Carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 158 Central America and the Caribbean, 31-32, 34-35 Chaotic processes, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 Chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165 Clouds, 71, 73, 80, 83-84, 85, 86, 87 Coastal zones, 3, 47, 72 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 166 socioeconomic impacts of sea-level rise, 129-131, 133 Younger Dryas in Europe, 31 D Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89 Decadal variations, 6, 48, 46, 52, 153 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation droughts, 43-44, 53-55 forest dieback, 134-135 global warming, 116 Holocene droughts, 40, 43, 44, 45, 74, 119, 144 Definitional issues abrupt climate change, general, 14-15 climate, general, 72 Dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 droughts, 19, 135 Developing countries, 8, 140-141, 164-165, 167 Diseases, see Health effects Droughts, 1, 15-16, 19, 20, 53-55, 57, 70, 108, 118-119, 128, 133, 134, 135-136, 143-144, 148, 152 Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 Holocene period, 40, 43, 44, 45, 74, 119, 144 tree ring evidence, 19, 135 wetlands, 139 Dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144 Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 E Ecological impacts, 6, 15-17, 118, 120-141, 154-155 committee research recommendations, 2-3, 154-155, 157-159, 161, 162 definitional issues, 14 forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim), 138, 142-144 modeling, 4, 159, 160-161 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166 US National Assessment, 11 wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163 Economic factors, 6, 16-17, 60, 118-152, 154-155, 167 agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152; see also Drought coastal zones, 129-131, 133 committee research recommendations, 2-3, 4, 154-155, 157-159, 160, 161, 162

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises developing countries, 8, 140-141, 164-165, 167 Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 El Niño, 119, 133, 147 floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166 forcing, 121-122, 134-141 global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152 insurance, 9, 148, 164, 166 modeling, 5, 129-131, 141-142, 160 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166 nonmarket accounts, 3, 128, 154, 158 recreation and leisure, 148, 149 research, 71; see also Funding water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166; see also Drought Eemian rapid climate change, 38-40 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 14, 48, 50-52, 67, 69, 71-72, 85, 90, 112, 129, 136 Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41-42, 44 precessional insolation, 87 socioeconomic effects, 119, 133, 147 Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Energy-balance models, 74, 75 Europe Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81, 89 disease, 147-148 Eemian climate change, 39 Little Ice Age, 118 North Atlantic Oscillation, 57 Younger Dryas, 30-31, 34 Evapotranspiration, 54, 55 Extinction, species, see Biodiversity F Fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 Fisheries, 60, 61, 138 Floods, 29, 136, 152, 164 Atlantic Ocean, impact on, 76 Holocene period, 40, 44-45, 65 socioeconomic impacts, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166 Forcing and forcing thresholds, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13, 14, 17, 59, 73, 84, 86-88, 107, 111, 114, 154, 158 see also Global warming Holocene droughts, 44 hysteresis, 93-94, 95, 98-99 models, 74, 75-76, 93-94, 95-97, 100-101 socioeconomic impacts, 121-122, 134-141 oceanic response, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104 Forecasting, weather events, 3, 8, 105, 116, 123, 158, 164, 165-166 Forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim), 138, 142-144 fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 Freshwater balance, 6-7, 16, 65, 71, 76, 79, 80, 82, 91, 94, 117, 156-157, 158 see also Salinity; Thermohaline circulation global warming, 110, 113-114 groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166 Funding committee study at hand, 2, 18 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9 paleoclimatic research, 6 G General circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 GENESIS model, 82 Glaciers, see Land ice Global Change Research Program, 2, 17 Global warming, 8, 43, 55, 62, 82, 105, 107-117, 137 see also Greenhouse gases freshwater balance, 110, 113-114 socioeconomic impacts, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152 Greenhouse effect, 1, 86, 107-117, 113, 137, 138, 146-147 see also Global warming carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151 dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144 methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises “no-regrets” strategies, 8, 165 water vapor, 71, 83-84 Greenland, 6, 15, 36-37, 77, 83, 102, 135-136, 139-140, 156, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 fisheries, 60 Younger Dryas interval, 25-29, 30, 37 Groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 H Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 Health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158 Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 Historical observations, 3, 7, 11, 45-48, 53-69, 70-72, 74 see also Economic factors; Social influences and effects committee report methodology, 17 forest dieback, 135 Holocene rapid climate change, 42, 43-44 Historical perspectives, research, 19, 46 modeling, 74-75 Holocene rapid climate change, 40-45, 52, 69-70, 74, 119, 144 Hurricanes, 125, 165-166 Hydrology, 54, 70, 110, 114, 154, 156-157 see also Floods; Freshwater balance; Oceans; Precipitation committee research recommendations, 2, 3, 7 groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 Holocene floods, 65 Hysteresis, 93-94, 95, 98-99 I Ice, 2, 3, 21, 154 see also Land ice sea ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154 Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 Ice ages, 1, 10, 14-15, 23, 38, 45, 69-70, 77-78, 107 Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163 Ice core evidence, 6, 19, 24, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32 Indian Ocean, 67, 68, 72 El Niño, 50, 53 tropical variability, 52-53 Younger Dryas, 35-36 Insurance, 9, 148, 164, 166 Interannual variations, 5, 6, 7, 42, 49 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation; Ice core evidence Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58 Interdisciplinary approaches, see Multidisciplinary approaches Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 116, 133 International Civil Aviation Organization, 61 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 42 Isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23, 108 radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 Younger Dryas interval, 25, 30, 33-34 L Land ice, 3, 20, 22, 52, 73, 78-80, 86, 88-89, 139-140, 145, 154, 156-157 see also Greenland; Ice ages; Ice core evidenceDansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37 freshwater discharges from, 76, 101, 116-117 global warming, 113-115 Holocene rapid climate change, 40-41 interglacial periods, 38-40 methane releases, 87-88 models, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113-114, 116-117, 136, 157 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 models, 83, 102, 105 Land surface, general, 2, 3, 80, 81, 86, 114, 138, 154-155, 156-158 see also Droughts; Floods agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152 fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 impermeable surfaces, 137 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9 vegetation, 54-55, 137 wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163 Lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39 Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163 M Marine environments, see Oceans Methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147 Models and modeling, 1, 48, 74-75, 94 see also Statistical analyses atmosphere-ocean interactions, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 committee report methodology, 17 committee research recommendations, 2, 4-5, 154, 159-161 ecological, 4, 159, 160-161 economic, 5, 129-131, 141-142, 160 El Niño, 42 energy balance, 74, 75 forcing, 74, 75-76, 93-94, 95-97, 100-101 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 GENESIS model, 82 global warming, 60, 111-112, 113-114, 131-132, 159 historical perspectives, 74-75 instrumental measures and, 46 land ice, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105 mechanical analogy of climate change, 12-13 nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 ocean, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 sea-level rise, coastal zone impacts, 129-131 social, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161 thermohaline circulation, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160 two-box models, 74-75, 95-103 Younger Dryas interval, 83, 102, 105 Monte Carlo simulations, 92 Multidisciplinary approaches, 6, 120, 133, 159, 161, 162 N National Wildlife Health Center, 158 New Zealand, 33 Nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 “No-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166 North America, 128 Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81 drought, Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 North Atlantic Oscillation, 57 Younger Dryas, 31, 34 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 O Oceans, 46, 73, 158 see also Coastal zones; specific oceans atmosphere-ocean interaction, 2 circulation, 3, 4, 21, 34, 39, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65-66, 70, 71, 78, 81-82, 89, 90, 155-156, 157, 162 general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 models, other than GCMs, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160 see also Thermohaline circulation deepwater, 2, 3, 4, 34, 36-37, 38, 47, 63, 66, 67, 76, 77, 78, 79, 103-104, 108, 154, 155-156, 160, 162 fisheries, 60, 61, 138 forcing, response to, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104 heat transport, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86; see also Thermohaline circulation ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154 Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 isotopic measurements, 23 methane releases, 87-88 paleoclimatology, 6-7 sea level, 39, 78, 109, 114, 115, 116, 131, 140, 156, 130-131, 133, 148 sea surface, 36, 47, 50, 51, 52, 61-62, 64-65, 71-72, 77, 78, 82, 84, 90, 101, 104, 109-110 Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60 North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation sediments and corals, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129 Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 sinks, 47-48, 71, 89, 109 Ozone layer depletion, 58 P Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 51-52, 67, 68 Pacific North American pattern, 50 Pacific Ocean, other, 67, 70, 77-78, 84, 90, 156 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Paleoclimate proxies and age indicators, 10, 11, 19-55, 88-89, 113, 114, 118, 153, 156 see also Ice core evidence; Sediment analyses biodiversity, 136-137 committee report methodology, 17 committee research recommendations, 2, 5-7, 154, 161-163 Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89 dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 forest dieback, 134-135 Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115, 108 radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23 precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 118 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 models, 83, 102, 105 PAst Global changES (PAGES), 42 Permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113-114, 116-117, 136, 157 Policy perspectives, 1-2 definitional issues, 14 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166 Pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 58, 84-85, 86, 110, 114, 118, 122, 132, 137, 152, 153, 156-157 see also Droughts; Floods R Radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 Recreation and leisure, 148, 149 Regional climate change, 1, 10, 11, 16, 49, 58, 59, 70, 135, 155 see also Droughts; Floods; Tropical regions; specific world regions and oceans Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41, 42 human population migrations, 140-141 “no-regrets” strategies, 9 pollen evidence, 30-34, 39 socioeconomic impacts, 129-132 Younger Dryas interval, 30-34

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises Research recommendations, 2-9, 18, 69-72, 106, 154-167 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166 S Salinity, 21, 23, 26-27, 29, 47, 59, 62, 63, 64-65, 66-67, 76, 79, 156-157 see also Freshwater balance; Thermohaline circulation Younger Dryas interval, 25, 79 Satellite technology, 46, 66, 71 Seas, see Oceans Seasonal variations, 5, 6, 48 forecasts, 3, 164 marine organism growth, 20 oceans, heat storage, 77 Sediment analyses, 6, 7, 20-24 (passim), 69, 70 Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39 ocean, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129 Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36 Social influences and effects, 2, 15-17, 18, 44, 87, 118-152, 154, 167 see also Economic factors coastal zones, 129-131, 133 committee research recommendations, 2, 4, 7, 157-158, 159, 161, 163-164 definitional issues, 14 Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 El Niño, 119, 133, 147 floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166 forcing, 121-122, 134-141 global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152 health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158 Holocene rapid climate change, 40 modeling, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161 policy perspectives, 1-2 definitional issues, 14 “no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166 recreation and leisure, 148, 149 statistical analyses, 126, 163-164 US National Assessment, 11 water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146 South America, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27, 32-33, 34 Statistical analyses see also Models and modeling committee research recommendations, 7-8, 163-164, 166 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Monte Carlo simulations, 92 socioeconomic impacts, 126, 163-164 Storms, 9, 31, 35-36, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55, 109, 125, 133, 148, 163, 165-166 see also Floods T Thermohaline circulation (THC), 5, 6-7, 47, 58, 62, 64, 66-67, 77, 79, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 86, 89-106, 108-117 Atlantic Ocean, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156 modeling of, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160 Thresholds, see Forcing and forcing thresholds Transport processes see also “circulation” under Atmospheric processes, other, and Oceans oceans, heat, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86 see also Thermohaline circulation sea ice, 3, 38 Tree rings, see Dendrochronology Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Tropical regions, general, 16, 47, 50, 51-53, 59, 71-72, 77, 80, 81-82, 84-86, 90, 149 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation; Indian Ocean Atlantic, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 Holocene droughts, 44 wetlands, 25 Younger Dryas interval, 27, 33, 34, 35 Tundra, see Permafrost/tundra Two-box models, 74-75, 95-103

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Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises U US Global Change Research Program, see Global Change Research Program US National Assessment, 11 V Vegetation, 54-55, 137 agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152 forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim), 133, 134, 135-136, 138, 142-144 fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Venezuela, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27 W Water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166 see also Drought Water vapor, 71, 83-84 Wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163 lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39 Wind, 21, 22, 36, 62, 65, 66, 81, 89, 104 Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Younger Dryas, 25, 27, 29, 35 Y Yale/NBER Program on International Environmental Economics, 18 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 Africa, 33-34, 35 Antarctica, 26, 35 Atlantic Ocean, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Europe, 30-31, 34 Greenland, 25-29, 30, 37 Indian Ocean, 35-36 isotopic indicators, 25, 30, 33-34 models, 83, 102, 105 North America, 31, 34 salinity, 25, 79 sediment analyses, 14, 15, 24-36 South America, 26, 27, 32-33, 34 tropical regions, 27, 33, 34, 35 wind, 25, 27, 29, 35

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committee research