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Contents

SUMMARY 1
1     CLIMATE, CLIMATE FORCINGS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, AND TRANSIENT CLIMATE CHANGE 6
    Climate, 6
    Climate Forcings, 6
    Climate Sensitivity, 6
    Transient Climate Change, 7
2     NATURAL CLIMATIC VARIATIONS 8
3     HUMAN CAUSED FORCINGS 9
    Greenhouse Gases, 9
    Aerosols, 12
    Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era, 12
4     CLIMATE SYSTEM MODELS 15
5     OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE DURING THE INDUSTRIAL ERA 16
    The Occurrence of Climate Change, 16
    The Effect of Human Activities, 17
6     FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 18
    Estimating Future Climate Change, 18
7     ASSESSING PROGRESS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE 22
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 22
    Research Priorities, 23
APPENDIXES
    A     Letter from the White House 27
    B     Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff 28


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