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GROWING POPULATIONS, CHANGING LANDSCAPES

Studies from India, China, and the United States

Indian National Science Academy
Chinese Academy of Sciences
U.S. National Academy of Sciences

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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Page i GROWING POPULATIONS, CHANGING LANDSCAPES Studies from India, China, and the United States Indian National Science Academy Chinese Academy of Sciences U.S. National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Page ii NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council and by competent members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Indian National Science Academy. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Grant No. 95-31825A-POP/PCE and 96-41812A-WER between the National Academy of Sciences and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and Task Order #34, NO1-OD-4139 of the Department of Health and Human Services. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07554-8 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2001117395 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press , 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. , Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055 ; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Cover Art: Photograph by Anamaria Viveros Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences . All rights reserved.

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Page iii Indian National Science Academy The Indian National Science Academy, formerly known as the National Institute of Sciences, is a nonprofit society of distinguished scientists. Established in 1935, it received the recognition of the Government of India in 1945 as the premier scientific society representing all branches of science in India. The Academy is dedicated to the promotion and coordination of scientific research in the country and its practical applications to problems of national welfare. Chinese Academy of Sciences The Chinese Academy of Sciences was founded on November 1, 1949, on the basis of the institutions of the former Academia Sinica and Beiping Academy of Sciences. It is the country's highest academic institution and comprehensive research and development center in the natural sciences and high technology. The Academy has five academic divisions, 121 institutes, more than 200 scientific and technological enterprises, and more than 20 supporting units, including three universities, five documentation and information centers, two printing houses, and five research and development centers for scientific instruments. They are distributed over various parts of the country. Thirteen branches of the Academy have been established. They are in Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, Changchun, Shenyang, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Kunming, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Xinjiang, and Hainan. U.S. National Academy of Sciences The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

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Page iv The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Page v TRI-ACADEMY PANEL ON POPULATION AND LAND USE M. Gordon Wolman, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Study Chairman India P. S. Ramakrishnan, Professor of Ecology, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Chairman P. S. George, Fellow, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala Sumati Kulkarni, Head, Department of Development Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences Prem S. Vashishtha, Director, Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi People's Republic of China Zhao Shidong, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chairman Zhao Qiguo, Director, Nanjing Institute of Soil Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences Cai Wenmei, Institute of Population Research, Peking University Zeng Yi, Institute of Population Research, Peking University United States M. Gordon Wolman, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Chairman John F. Long, Director, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census Cynthia Rosenzweig, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration William D. Solecki, Professor, Earth and Environmental Studies, Montclair State University Staff Judith Bale (1995–1997), Office of International Affairs, U.S. National Research Council Michael Greene (1998–2001), Policy and Global Affairs, U.S. National Research Council

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Page vi

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Page vii Preface This collaborative study of population and land use change grew out of conversations among representatives of the academies of science of India, China, and the United States. They were attending the “Science Summit” on World Population, a gathering of the world's scientific academies held in New Delhi in October 1993. The three academies expressed their desire to engage in studies of important issues of mutual interest. Once they agreed on a study of population and land use, they explored issues of comparability of data and approaches to studying the issue in their respective countries. In the end, they decided to identify two sites in each country that would serve as the basis for comparison. A panel made up of representatives of each of the three academies was established to guide the effort. The panel suggested criteria for selection of the study sites, but each country chose its own. Site selection depended on the existence of data, the availability of research personnel, and the specific interests of each country, balanced by the desire to provide comparable rural and urban settings. Despite a variety of simplistic arguments about the relationship between population and land use change, many studies have demonstrated that the relationship is complex, influenced by a multitude of physical, social, economic, and political factors. Investigators also have recognized that correlations alone do not translate directly into explanations of cause and effect. Although the study design emphasized issues of transnational

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Page viii collection and comparison of data on population and land use change, the interests of the research scholars at each site inevitably moved toward focus on the nature of the processes leading to change. Thus the studies of the individual sites reflect the richness and complexities of reality rather than the bland results of generalization. To the general public, a study based on statistical research and comparisons of data across different jurisdictions in different countries conjures up one word: dry. To a professional in the social sciences, it suggests another word: risky. “Dry” is easy to understand. Statistics alone do not explain how people and land interact. They do, however, capture some facets of the dynamism of human societies, their differences as well as their commonalties, and in this report they are often wrapped in a narrative that sheds light on the rich histories, evolution, and day-to-day life of the study regions. For example, although the numbers describe the spectacular growth of Shenzhen City in southern China, from a town of 45,000 to a city of 2.5 million in 15 years, they do not convey the dynamism of the site as experienced by an observer on the ground. In the surrounding Pearl River Delta, 7 kilometers of furniture manufacturing establishments are abruptly truncated by fish ponds a few kilometers from a major toll highway flanked by raw quarry faces supplying rock for highways and high-rises. A retired farmer in a new concrete three-story house with an electric fan and a TV describes the sale of the communal lands to industry, with each farmer claiming a share. His only complaint: he has three married children but only one grandchild, a common occurrence under China's population policy. In China's Jitai Basin, three sisters and a younger brother live in a farmhouse, next door to a family with a son home for a holiday from his job in Guangdong Province, which includes the Pearl River Delta. His father complains that the son sends home too little money; the son replies that his father does not understand the high cost of living in the Delta. There, a new hotel with a marble lobby and dining room that seats hundreds suggests he is right. Elsewhere in the province, three families are living side by side in a new compound for workers. In the yard outside the compound stand three separate, identical wells, one for each family, instead of a single shared one. In Kerala in southwest India, where roads are clogged with decoratively painted trucks, the international beachcombers and opulent retirement homes of overseas workers in a small village contrast with the small paddy fields and bullocks in the countryside. In northern India, at the western desert edge of Haryana State, a new sprinkler irrigation system provides the hope of new crops even as salinization of soil and ground-water threaten the system. In the words of a village elder, hushed by the younger generation, people have replaced wildlife on the landscape. At a

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Page ixhalf-day's drive away in eastern Haryana, poultry barns have replaced chicken yards, and a huge automated rice mill is shipping its products to the world, a sign of the Green Revolution. On a major highway on the outskirts of New Delhi, whose streets teem with people, a Mercedes is slowed by cows in the roadway. And then there is South Florida, a plumber's paradise on an immense scale, a landscape engineered to control floods and protect the land devoted to sugarcane and cattle. Immigrants continue to come, settling in urban areas of the Atlantic Coast, where they are hemmed in by the Everglades wetland. The Everglades itself, once subject to massive drainage, is now the site of a major “restoration” project aimed at, among other things, returning the Kissimmee River from a straight canal to its meandering former self. In the U.S. Midwest, Chicago, site of one of the world's highest office towers built by a company that has since moved its headquarters 40 miles to the west, has a thriving downtown and waterfront playland. The city continues to expand across land that was once prairie, then farmland, and now exurbia laced with interstate highways. Much of the riskiness perceived by professional colleagues relates to the definition of variables and the compatibility of data used. Early in the study, “common variables” became a rallying cry, lamentation, or denunciation as the Tri-Academy panel and associated research scientists traveled to the study sites in India, China, and the United States. Everyone knows that true comparative analyses are impossible without identically defined, relevant variables expressed in comparable units. Save for some demographers, geographers, economists, and sociologists who have tried to compare spatial data in the international context, few researchers are aware of how each country respects its own land classification scheme and special definitions. Still fewer are aware, for example, that “urban” may refer to neither city nor metropolitan area, and that “rural” may not imply agricultural. Each category may contain some of the other, and definitions may change between censuses, unbeknownst to the unwary researcher. In the absence of comparable and unchanging spatial units and definitions, the numerical size of a population within political boundaries of varying scales produces uncertain measures of migration or population density. Does a sudden increase in rural population and decrease in urban population stem from people moving or definitions changing? Researchers also encountered the problem of verifying data sources and the differences in languages (only two of the six jurisdictions speak the same language). It is a measure of the goodwill and cooperative spirit of all of the participants from the three countries that we remain on speaking terms. That said, a word on compromises is warranted. This study was based on the premise that international comparisons of recorded social transfor

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Page xmations may yield insight into principles that could lead to broader generalizations, or at least to recognition of common experience, generalizable or not. A perfect design would call for the selection of study sites carefully matched across a spectrum of attributes such as population, land cover, occupations, and geography. Although the panel encouraged such design criteria, each country was responsible for selecting its own sites, under the significant constraint that the studies rely on ongoing work or existing material and not on the collection of new data. One result is that all sites have large populations and high population densities. A base period, roughly the last half-century, was adopted for the comparison of trends, but, where available, much earlier data were used in the analyses. Even though the case studies described here do include some anecdotal narrative, the panel has emphasized, to the extent possible, quantitative measures of trends. As the findings demonstrate, however, some explanations of changes in land use and population draw on qualitative as well as quantitative observations. The three academies intend to continue their discussions of this important topic, including lessons learned from this initial experiment in collaboration. At the same time, new opportunities for discussion and the exchange of ideas should continue to be pursued. After all, researchers, policymakers, and others are paying greater attention to the ways in which diverse societies throughout the world are evolving socially, culturally, and economically. Cross-disciplinary and cross-national studies can, despite the obstacles they face, contribute to our understanding of a rapidly changing world. As chairman of such a study, my special thanks go to the staff and to my colleagues on the panel from India, China, and the United States. The process from beginning to end has been a long one, complete with much debate, drafting, and redrafting. But most of us, new to each other initially, have become friends, drawn together by mutual interest, harrowing field excursions, and humor. M. Gordon Wolman, Chairman Tri-Academy Panel

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Page xi Acknowledgments The first four chapters of this report are the work of the Tri-Academy panel and represent a synthesis of the material presented in the six case study reports and the gender analysis. The country studies were carried out by Tri-Academy panel members and their colleagues. The Kerala study ( Chapter 5) was conducted by the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, under the direction of P. S. George. The Haryana study ( Chapter 6) was undertaken by the Agricultural Economics Research Centre of the University of Delhi under the leadership of Prem S. Vashishtha. In a complementary study ( Chapter 7), Sumati Kulkarni of the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai analyzed the gender dimensions of the relationship between population and land use in the two Indian study sites. P. S. Ramakrishnan of Jawaharlal Nehru University provided coordination on behalf of the Indian National Science Academy. A. K. Jain of the Indian National Science Academy provided indispensible administrative and logistic support. The Chinese studies of the Jitai Basin ( Chapter 8) and the Pearl River Delta ( Chapter 9) were accomplished through the collaboration of the Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources, the Nanjing Institute of Soil Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Institute of Population Research at Peking University. Zhao Shidong served as the Chinese study director. In the United States, the South Florida case study ( Chapter 10) was carried out by a group at Florida State University, led by William D. Solecki and Robert T. Walker. The Chicago study ( Chapter 11) was con-

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Page xv Contents Executive Summary 1 PART I     POPULATION AND LAND USE IN INDIA, CHINA, AND THE UNITED STATES: CONTEXT, OBSERVATIONS, AND FINDINGS     1     Introduction to the Tri-Academy Project 11     2     Elements of Population Growth 23     3     Land Use Change in Space and Time 43     4     Findings and Observations of the Tri-Academy Project 61 PART II     INDIA     Indian Case Studies: An Introduction P. S. Ramakrishnan, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University 75     5     Population and Land Use in Kerala P. S. George, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala S. Chattopadhyay, Centre for Earth Science Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 79

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Page xvi     6     Population and Land Use in Haryana Prem S. Vashishtha, Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi R. K. Sharma, Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi R. P. S. Malik, Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi Seema Bathla, Insitute of Economic Growth, Delhi 107     7     Gender Dimensions of the Relationship Between Population and Land Use in the Indian States of Kerala and Haryana Sumati Kulkarni, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India 145 PART III     CHINA     Chinese Case Studies: An Introduction Zhao Shidong, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences 175     8     Population, Consumption, and Land Use in the Jitai Basin Region, Jiangxi Province Zhao Shidong, Chinese Academy of Sciences Lu Jiehua, Peking University Zhang Hongqi, Chinese Academy of Sciences Zeng Yi, Peking University Qi Wenhu, Chinese Academy of Sciences Liang Zhiwu, Peking University Zhang Taolin, Chinese Academy of Sciences Liu Guiping, Peking University Qin Mingzhou, Henan University Jiang Leiwen, Peking University 179     9     Population, Consumption, and Land Use in the Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province Zhao Shidong, Chinese Academy of Sciences Zeng Yi, Peking University Bai Wanqi, Chinese Academy of Sciences Lu Jiehua, Peking University Qi Wenhu, Chinese Academy of Sciences Liu Guiping, Peking University Zhang Taolin, Chinese Academy of Sciences Qin Mingzhou, Henan University Jiang Leiwen, Peking University 207

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Page xvii PART IV     UNITED STATES     U.S. Case Studies: An Introduction M. Gordon Wolman, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University 233     10     Transformation of the South Florida Landscape William D. Solecki, Montclair State University Robert T. Walker, Michigan State University 237     11     Evolution of the Chicago Landscape: Population Dynamics, Economic Development, and Land Use Change Edwin S. Mills, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Cynthia S. Simmons, Department of Geography, Michigan State University 275

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Page xviii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1-1     Characteristics, Tri-Academy Study Regions, 16 2-1     Population Size and Components of Population Change by Nation and Study Region, 1990, 30 2-2     Selected Demographic Characteristics by Nation and Study Region, 1990, 31 3-1     Tri-Academy Project Land Use Classification Scheme, 44 3-2     Common Variable Database of Land Use Change, Six Study Regions, Various Years, 46 3-3     Population Density, Six Study Regions, 1950–1990, 47 5-1     Demographic Indicators, Kerala, 1951–1993, 83 5-2     Indicators of Urbanization, Kerala, 1901–1991, 84 5-3     Literacy Rates, Kerala and India, 1901–1991, 85 5-4     Major Religions, Kerala, 1981 and 1991, 86 5-5     Changes in Cropping Patterns between 1957 and 1996, Kerala, 88 5-6a     Crop Shifts, Thiruvananthapuram and Malappuram Districts, 1979–1989, 91 5-6b     Farmers' Reasons for Shifting from Rice Cultivation to Other Crops, by Period of Conversion, 91 5-7     Farm-level Price of Important Agricultural Commodities, Kerala, 1970–1996, 91 5-8     Distribution of Area and Population in the Three Natural Regions of Kerala, 93 5-9     Comparative Growth Rates of Population and Land Utilization, Travancore and Malabar, 1911–1991, 94 5-10     Nature of Land Acquired by Migrant Households, Malabar, 1940–1980, 95 5-11     Nature of Acquistion of Land by Settlers in Idukki Villages, 97 5-12     Temporal Variation in Land Use in Idukki District, 98 5-13     Land Use Change, Thiruvananthapuram City Corporation, 1961 and 1976, 100 6-1     Population Size and Growth Trends, India and Selected States, 1901–1991, 110 6-2     Natural Growth Rate of Population, Haryana and India, 1951–2016, 111 6-3     Population Density and Growth Rates, Haryana and India, 1951–2011, 112 6-4     Number and Growth Rate of In-migrants, 1971 and 1991, 113 6-5     Population and Availability of Agricultural Land, Haryana, 1971 and 1991, 114

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Page xix 6-6     Sown Area, Irrigated Area, and Adoption of High-yielding Varieties, Haryana, 1950–1996, 116 6-7     Area under Cereal Crops, Haryana, 1971–1991, 118 6-8     Severity of Soil Degradation, Haryana, 120 6-9     Land Use Patterns, Haryana, 1970–1995, 121 6-10     Shifts in Cropping Patterns, Haryana, 1960–1990, 123 6-11     Cereal Production, Haryana, 1971 and 1991, 124 6-12     Classification of Districts by Agroecological Region, Haryana, 125 6-13     Area under Cereal Crops by Region, Haryana, 1971–1991, 125 6-14     Area under Major Crops as Percentage of Gross Cropped Area by Region, Haryana, 1971–1991, 126 6-15     Soil Degradation by Agroecological Region, Haryana, 127 6-16     Yield of Major Crops by Region, Haryana, 1971–1991, 127 6-17     Proxy for Agricultural Technology by Region, Haryana, 1971–1991, 128 6-18     Water Table in Selected Districts of Haryana, 130 6-19     Per Capita Net Domestic Product at Factor Cost, Haryana and India, 1970–1996, 136 6-20     Changes in Pattern of Household Expenditures, India, 1972 and 1993, 136 6-21     Monthly Average Household Consumption Expenditure on Food, Haryana, 1972 and 1993, 137 6-22     Changes in Livestock Population, Haryana, 1972–1992, 139 6-23     Fertility and Infant Mortality Rates by Selected Background Characteristics, Haryana, 1993, 140 7-1     Demographic Change, Kerala and Haryana, 1971–1991, 153 7-2     Land Use Pattern, Haryana, 1971–1990, 155 7-3     Crop Areas, Haryana, 1966–1967 and 1982–1983, 156 7-4     Percent Change, Male and Female Workers in Various Categories, Haryana and Kerala, 1971–1991, 159 7-5     Female Workers per Hundred Male Workers by Category of Worker, Haryana and Kerala, 1971–1991, 160 7-6     Percentage of Total Increase in Rural Main Workers Absorbed by Agricultural Sectors, by Gender, Haryana and Kerala, 1981–1991, 160 7-7     Gender Gap in Labor-Hours per Household per Month in Kerala Villages by Landholding Size, 1994, 164 7-8     Labor-Hours per Month in Kerala Villages by Crop and Gender, 1994, 165 7-9     Unpaid Woman-Days as Percentage of Unpaid Family Person-Days, Haryana, 166

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Page xx 7-10     Percentage of Casual and Permanent Laborers among Male and Female Agricultural Laborers in High-, Moderate-, and Low-Technology Regions, Haryana, 1972–1973, 167 7-11     Agricultural Laborer Wage Rates, Haryana, 1970–1985, 168 8-1     Soil Types, Jitai Basin, 182 8-2     Natural Land Areas, Taihe County, 1957–1994, 185 8-3     Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Guangdong Province, Jiangxi Province, and Jitai Basin, 1978–1996, 189 8-4     Summary of Forces Driving Land Use Change in the Jitai Basin, 1950–1995, 192 8-5     Main Government Policies Affecting the Jitai Basin, 1950–1993, 194 8-6     Average per Capita Income of Floating Labor Force in Shenzhen City and Local Labor Force in Xingguo County, 1991–1994, 203 9-1     Municipalities, Counties, and Cities in the Pearl River Delta Study Region, 208 9-2     Percent Increase in Permanent Population, Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province, and China, 1960–1990, 209 9-3     Ratio of Floating Population to Permanent Population, Selected Subregions, 1995, 211 9-4     Land Use Patterns, Pearl River Delta, 1973–1995, 213 9-5     Population Density, Pearl River Delta, 1980–1995, 217 9-6     Average Annual Food Consumption per Capita, Urban Areas of Guangdong Province, 1978–1995, 220 9-7     Comparison of Fertilizer Regimes by Land Use Types, Pearl River Delta, 1989–1994, 224 9-8     Agricultural Output per Agricultural Laborer, Guangzhou, 1950–1988, 225 9-9     Township Enterprises and Employees, Guangdong Province, 1980–1996, 226 9-10     Comparison of Economic Growth, Population Growth, Farmland per Capita, and Indices of Environmental Pollution, Zhuhai and Other Five Municipalities, 228 10-1     Population Growth, Density, Number of Households, and Percent Urban, South Florida, 1930–1990, 246 10-2     In-migration, South Florida, 1960–1990, 247 10-3     Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Florida, Per Capita, Regional Estimate, 1960–1990, 260 10-4     Employment by Sector, South Florida, 1930–1990, 261 10-5     Canals and Natural Lands Encroachment, South Florida, 266 10-6     Exotic Species and Development Infrastructure, South Florida, 268 11-1     Land Use in the Chicago Region, Pre-settlement–1992, 278 11-2     Land Use Change Matrix, Chicago Region, Pre-settlement–1992, 279

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Page xxi 11-3     Land Use Classification and Change Matrix, 1972 and 1992, 280 11-4     Population of the City of Chicago, Chicago Region, and United States, 1840–1990, 281 11-5     Percent of Urban Population, Chicago Region, Illinois, and United States, 1900–1990, 283 Figures 1-1     Tri-Academy study regions, 12 1-2     Relations among government, population, and land, and influences on population and land use emanating from within a region and from outside a region, 21 2-1     Population of India, China, and United States, 1950–2000, 24 2-2     Population change in India, China, and United States, 1950–2000, 26 2-3     Demographic Transition of United States, 1900–2000, 27 2-4     Demographic Transition of China, 1900–1998, 28 2-5     Demographic Transition of India, 1950–1998, 29 2-6     Life expectancy at birth, India, China, and United States, 1950–2000, 32 2-7     Total fertility rate, India, China, and United States, 1950–2000, 33 3-1     Population of the six study regions, 1950–1990, 47 3-2     Land use in the six study regions, various time periods, 48 3-3     Forestland and population density of the six study regions, various time periods, 50 3-4     Grassland/wetland in the six study regions, various time periods, 51 3-5     Agricultural land use and population density of the six study regions, various time periods, 54 3-6     Built-up areas and population density of the six study regions, various time periods, 57 Map of Indian study regions, 78 5-1     Map of Kerala, 80 5-2     Three natural elevation zones, Kerala, 81 5-3     Rice area, production, and yield, Kerala, 1970–1995, 89 5-4     Population growth, Idukki District, 1971–1991, 96 5-5     Land use, Thiruvananthapuram City Region, 1966–1967 and 1991, 101 6-1     Districts of Haryana, 108 6-2     Indices of yield, value, and price of rice and wheat, 1966–1997, 119

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Page xxii Map of Chinese study regions, 178 8-1     Jitai Basin, Jiangxi Province, 180 8-2     Total population, Jitai Basin, 1951–1995, 182 8-3     Land use, Jitai Basin, 1950–1994, 183 8-4     Farmland, Jitai Basin, 1949–1993, 184 8-5     Forest stock change, Taihe County, 1961–1994, 186 8-6     Areas planted in tea and citrus, Jitai Basin, 1965–1994, 187 8-7     Urban population as a percentage of total population, Jitai Basin, Pearl River Delta, and China, 1950–1990, 188 8-8     Average annual per capita expenditure, Jiangxi Province and Guangdong Province, 1978–1995, 189 8-9     Retail price index, Guangdong Province and Jiangxi Province, 1978–1996, 190 8-10     Population growth rate, Jitai Basin, 1950–1994, 196 8-11     Population growth rate and net migration rate, Jitai Basin, 1980–1992, 197 8-12     Rates of change in farmland and population, Jitai Basin, 1951-1993, 198 8-13     Production of grain, pork, eggs, and fish, Ji'an Prefecture, 1949–1988, 199 8-14     Land devoted to grain production, Taihe County, 1979–1996, 201 8-15     Land devoted to cash crop production, Taihe County, 1979–1988, 202 9-1     Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province, 208 9-2     Total population, Pearl River Delta, 1970–1994, 210 9-3     Crude birth rate, China, Guangdong Province, Shenzhen City, and Zhuhai City, 1979–1994, 210 9-4     Net migration rate, Pearl River Delta, 1980–1994, 211 9-5     Urban/built-up areas and farmland, Pearl River Delta, 1960–1995, 213 9-6     Farmland and total population, Pearl River Delta, 1980–1994, 216 9-7     Farmland and net migration rate, Pearl River Delta, 1980–1994, 217 9-8     Unit area grain yield, Dongguan and Shenzhen, 1949–1996, 218 9-9     Gross power consumption of agricultural machinery per hectare of farmland, Dongguan, Huadu, and Zhongshan, 1980–1995, 218 9-10     Per capita residential floor space, Guangzhou City, 1965–1995, 219 9-11     Per capita open space and parkland, Guangzhou City, 1990–1995, 219 9-12     Grain crop areas, Huadu, Conghua, Zengcheng, and Panyu Counties, 1978–1988, 221

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Page xxiii 9-13     Vegetable land, Huadu, Conghua, and Zengchang Counties, 1978–1988, 221 9-14     Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, Pearl River Delta, 1980–1994, 225 Map of U.S. study regions, 236 10-1     Counties and major cities, South and Central Florida, 238 10-2     Historic Everglades watershed, 240 10-3     Land cover, South Florida, 1900, 241 10-4     Land cover, South Florida, 1953, 242 10-5     Land cover, South Florida, 1973, 243 10-6     Land cover, South Florida, 1988, 244 10-7     Public lands, South Florida, 1988, 248 10-8     Land cover change, from natural to human-dominated systems, South Florida, 1900–1988, 263 10-9     Land cover in South Florida, 1900–1988, 264 10-10     Brazilian pepper, melaleuca, and cattail infiltration, South Florida, 1988, 267 11-1     Illinois and the Chicago study region, 276 11-2     Evolution of land use, Chicago region, 1900, 1955, 1992, 278 11-3     Population density trends, Chicago region, 1880–1990, 283 11-4     Percent of land in farms, Cook County and Chicago region (excluding Cook County), 1850–1990, 286 11-5     Distribution of workforce: primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors, Cook County and Chicago region (excluding Cook County), 1840 and 1930–1990, 287 11-6     Grain production, Chicago region, 1880–1990, 288

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