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PART II: WORKSHOP PAPERS
OCR for page 12
student financial aid. The paper then presents a brief overview of trends within the
military and the labor market that may influence participation in postsecondary
education. The final section of the paper reviews the limitations of current data sources
for monitoring changes in postsecondary education, and suggests areas for improvement.
This paper focuses primarily on trends within the past three decades, from 1970 to
2000' although shorter time Periods are used when data are not available for all 30 years.
_
ma. . , .. a. . ~ ~ . . . . .. . . . . .. . .. ..
l'~roughout, the paper relies on analyses of federal data, particularly data collected by the
U.S. Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). NCES
data are a rich source of relatively objective, reliable data with which to describe
postsecondary education. They do, however, have some limitations. First, the national
portrait provided by these data necessarily masks differences that exist among states and
regions of the country (e.g., enrollment trends among Hispanic students are likely to
differ in the Southwest compared to the Midwest). These more detailed analyses were
beyond the scope of this paper.) Also, for reasons discussed at the end of the paper,
existing national data pnmanly describe "traditional" postsecondary institutions and the
attainment of "traditional" postsecondary education credentials. Finally, because of both
the reliance on national data and the broad scope of this paper, many topics could not be
covered in depth, and many of the complex issues raised by these data received
admittedly cursory treatment. It is hoped that these shortcomings are outweighed by the
rigor and breadth of the infonnation presented.
YOUNG ADULT POPULAR TRENDS
Although about 40 percent of college students are over age 24, young adults aged
~ ~ to 22 are often considered the key constituency for postsecondary education. This
population of young adults has fluctuated in size over the past three decades, increasing
in the 1970s (as the baby boomers reached college age) and declining during the 1980s
and early 1990s. The number of young adults increased from 23.7 million in 1970 to
30.2 million in ~ 98 I, then declined to a low of 24.8 million in ~ 996. Since ~ 996, the size
ofthe IS- to 24-year-old cohort has increased to 26.0 million in 1999, and it is expected
to continue to grow in size over the next five decades (U.S. Census Bureau, 1996, 20001.
Because the federal government did not separate out Hispanics in its data
collections until the mid-1970s, trend data on the racial/ethnic composition ofthe young-
adult cohort are more limited. Over the roughly two decades Tom ~ 980 to ~ 999, the
proportion of young adults who are White2 declined Tom 78 percent to 66 percent. At
the same time, the proportion of Blacks increased slightly from 13 percent to 14 percent,
the proportion of Hispanics increased from ~ percent to ~ 5 percent, and the proportion of
other minorities (Asians and Native Americans) increased Tom 2 percent to 5 percent
(U.S. Census Bureau, 1996, 2000~. As will be seen later, these changes in the
~ The reader interested in state-level data is referred to publications produced by the State Higher
Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) and He National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education
(e.g., Measuring Up 2000~.
2 Throughout this paper, "White" refers to non-Hispanic Whites and "Black" refers to non-Hispanic Blacks.
The Knowledge Economy and Postsecondary
Education: Report of a Workshop
Chapter 1
12
OCR for page 13
1
Demographic and Attainment Trends
in Postsecondary Education
Lisa Godsons
"More people are going to college!" is hardly an attention-grabbing
headline, as it describes a long-standing trend in American educa-
tion. This trend reflects continued increases in the skills required by
the labor market and by society in general. Within this world of
increasing skill demands, America's public and private postsecondary
education institutions have firmly maintained their role and mission.
In recent years, however, these postsecondary institutions have faced
growing competition. In particular, the growth of alternative providers
(such as for-profit institutions, "virtual" universities, and corporate
universities) and alternative credentials (such as company-based certifi-
cates) have called into question the efficacy of the traditional postsecondary
institution and its ability to continue its dominant role as the (nearly)
exclusive provider of postcompulsory education.
Other chapters in this volume examine alternative postsecondary
education providers and pedagogies and the ways in which tradi-
tional postsecondary institutions are adapting to changing conditions.
This chapter provides a context for the remainder of the volume, by
providing a broad overview of trends within postsecondary education,
as well as trends in the civilian labor market and the military that
may affect the demand for postsecondary education. These three activities
(postsecondary education, civilian work, and military service) constitute
the three main career options available to those leaving high school.
To put these options in perspective, among students who were eighth-
~Lisa Hudson is an education statistician at the National Center for Education
Statistics in the U.S. Department of Education. The views in this paper are those of
the author. No official support by the U.S. Department of Education is intended or
should be inferred.
13
OCR for page 14
graders in 1988 (and thus expected to graduate in 1992), 74 percent
were working for pay or looking for work in 1994, and 53 percent
were in a postsecondary education program. (About 35 percent were
engaged in both activities.) Only 3 percent of these former students
were in the military, and 7 percent were full-time homemakers (Berktold,
Gels, and Kaufman, 1998~.
STRUCTURE OF THE CHAPTER
Although this chapter examines all three postsecondary school
activities, the main emphasis is on postsecondary education. The chapter
begins by examining characteristics of the young adult population. A
number of aspects of postsecondary education are then examined,
including trends in postsecondary enrollment levels and rates, the
composition of students in postsecondary education, the number and
types of degrees awarded, and student financial aid. The chapter then
presents a brief overview of trends within the military and the labor
market that may influence participation in postsecondary education.
The final section reviews the limitations of current data sources for
monitoring changes in postsecondary education and suggests areas
for improvement.
This chapter focuses primarily on trends within the past three
decades, from 1970 to 2000, although shorter time periods are used
when data are not available for all 30 years. Throughout, the chapter
relies on analyses of federal data, particularly data collected by the
U.S. Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics
(NCES). NCES data are a rich source of relatively objective, reliable
data with which to describe postsecondary education. They do, how-
ever, have some limitations. First, the national portrait provided by
these data necessarily masks differences that exist among states and
regions of the country (e.g., enrollment trends among Hispanic students
are likely to differ in the Southwest compared to the Midwest). These
more detailed analyses were beyond the scope of this chapter. Also,
for reasons discussed at the end, existing national data primarily describe
"traditional" postsecondary institutions and the attainment of "tradi-
tional" postsecondary education credentials. Finally, because of both
the reliance on national data and the broad scope of this chapter,
many topics could not be covered in depth, and many of the complex
issues raised by these data received admittedly cursory treatment.
YOUNG ADULT POPULATION TRENDS
Although about 40 percent of college students are over age 24,
young adults aged 18-22 are often considered the key constituency
The reader interested in state-level data is referred to publications produced by the
State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) and the National Center for
Public Policy and Higher Education (e.g., Measuring Up 2000~.
14
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
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for postsecondary education. This population of young adults has
fluctuated in size over the past three decades, increasing in the 1970s
(as the baby boomers reached college age) and declining during the
1980s and early 1990s. The number of young adults increased from
23.7 million in 1970 to 30.2 million in 1981, then declined to a low
of 24.8 million in 1996. Since 1996, the size of the 18-24-year-old
cohort has increased to 26.0 million in 1999, and it is expected to
continue to grow in size over the next five decades (U.S. Census
Bureau, 1996, 2000~.
Because the federal government did not separate out Hispanics in
its data collections until the mid-1970s, trend data on the racial/ethnic
composition of the young adult cohort are more limited. Over the
roughly two decades from 1980 to 1999, the proportion of young
adults who are White2 declined from 78 percent to 66 percent. At the
same time, the proportion of Blacks increased slightly from 13 percent
to 14 percent, the proportion of Hispanics increased from 8 percent to
15 percent, and the proportion of other minorities (Asians and Native
Americans) increased from 2 percent to 5 percent (U.S. Census Bureau,
1996, 2000~. As will be seen later, these changes in the racial/ethnic
composition of the young adult population are reflected in changes in
the college student population over time.
Looking at a slightly older group of adults, those aged 25-29,
shows that the education level of adults has increased over time, as
more individuals have completed high school, enrolled in college,
and earned a college degree (Figure 1-1~. From 1971 to 1999, the
percentage of adults aged 25-29 who completed high school increased
from 78 percent to 88 percent; the percentage who had at least some
college education increased from 44 percent to 66 percent; and the
percentage who had at least a bachelor' s degree increased from 22 percent
to 32 percent (NCES, 2000~. The proportion of these adults complet-
ing at least some college has increased faster than the proportion
completing high school, suggesting that the college enrollment rate
has been increasing. As will be discussed later, this rate has indeed
been rising. But before students can go to college, they must leave
high school.
High School Dropout and Completion Rates
Completing high school increases a student's chances of attend-
ing college, and completing high school through a regular diploma
rather than an alternative route increases a student's chances of both
going on to college (Snyder, 2001) and of completing college once he
or she has started (Boesel, Alsalam, and Smith, 1998~. Thus, to maxi-
mize their opportunity to enter and complete college, students should
2Throughout this paper, "White" refers to non-Hispanic Whites and "Black" refers
to non-Hispanic Blacks.
LISA HUDSON
15
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100-
80 -
60 -
40 -
20 -
O -
_ _ _
~ I, D 9' ~ ~ 9'
,6 <7 ~
~ ,6 ,~ On, ~ Hi or A, 9,4 a. a D ~ ~ ° ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ ~ ~~ ~
~ o ~
¢, o ~ ~
,~7 ~
,~_
~ High school
I ~ Some college
_ Bachelor's degree
. . . ~
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Year
FIGURE 1-1 Percentage of 25-29 year olds who have completed at least high school, some college, or a bachelor's
degree: 1971-1999.
SOURCE: Data from National Center for Education Statistics (2000, pp. 154-156~.
ideally graduate from high school with a regular high school diploma.3
While most high school students do this, many do not. For example,
in 1999, 86 percent of 18-24 year olds who were not enrolled in high
school had completed high school, 77 percent by graduating from
high school and 9 percent through an alternative means such as the
General Educational Development (GED) test. Thus, 23 percent of
these young adults had failed to graduate from high school through
the traditional path.
These figures represent a decline in high school dropout rates and
corresponding increase in completion rates since the 1970s. Eleven
percent of 16-24 year olds were dropouts4 in 1999, down from over
14 percent in 1972 (Kaufman, Kwon, Klein, and Chapman, 2000).
However, while dropout rates have declined since the early 1970s,
they were fairly steady during the l990s; similarly, the high school
completion rate has increased slightly since the early 1970s, but remained
flat in the l990s.
3High school graduation maximizes other opportunities as well: Graduating from
high school with a regular diploma is also related to lower levels of unemployment
and higher wages, compared to not completing high school or completing through an
alternative program (Boesel et al., 1998~.
4This measure of dropouts includes all young adults aged 16-24 who are not in
school and have not earned a high school credential. This measure undercounts school
dropout rates, since some of these young adults may have dropped out of high school
but subsequently earned a credential.
16
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
OCR for page 17
These trends are occurring along with increased academic course
taking among high school students (Levesque, Lauen, Teitelbaum,
Alt, and Librera, 2000) and relatively steady or increasing academic
achievement on national standardized tests (NCES, 2000; Smith, 1996~.
Taken together, these findings suggest that school reform and accountability
efforts in the past few decades may have improved learning outcomes
for many high school students, although, at least in recent years, they
seem to have had little effect on high school completion rates. It is
not clear to what extent these trends have affected postsecondary
education for example, it is not (yet) known whether these learning
gains have reduced the need for remediation at the college level or to
what extent they account for increasing enrollments at the postsecondary
level.
Immediate Transition to College and SAT Scores
The most successful route to a college degree is to enter college
immediately after high school graduation (NCES, 1997~. The percentage
of high school completers who make this immediate transition remained
relatively constant at about 50 percent from 1972 to 1980 but then
increased to 66 percent by 1998 (NCES, 2000~. The number of students
who took the SAT also increased from 1975 to 1999 (College Board,
2000c). This increase has occurred despite a declining cohort of 17
year olds, so that in 1975 the number of SAT-takers was 23 percent
of the number of 17 year olds, while in 1999, SAT-takers were 31
percent of the 17-year-old population. Most of this increase occurred
during the 1980s; by 1987, SAT-takers were 29 percent of the 17-
year-old population (Snyder and Hoffman, 1991; College Board, 2000c;
Snyder, 2001~.
At the same time that more high school graduates are going directly
to college and more students are taking the SAT, SAT scores have
been holding steady or increasing (Snyder, 2001~. Average verbal
SAT scores declined from 507 to 505 from 1986 to 1987 but have
remained constant at 505 since then (up to 1999~. However, over this
same time period, verbal SAT scores increased for each racial/ethnic
group except Hispanics, whose scored dropped. These within-group
trends suggest two reasons for the lack of an overall increase in
verbal scores. The first reason is the drop in scores among Hispanics;
the second reason is the increasing percentage of minorities attending
college. Since all minority groups have lower verbal scores than Whites,
this enrollment increase lowers the overall average score. Average
math SAT scores increased from 501 to 514 from 1986 to 1999. Part
of this increase may be due to increasing enrollments of Asian students,
who have higher average math scores than other racial/ethnic groups,
but it also reflects an increase in scores among each racial/ethnic
group.
These positive trends reflect a high school student body that appears
to be, on average, better prepared to enter college. The next sections
LISA HUDSON
17
OCR for page 18
1600Q
1200Q
o
o
x
E 800Q
o
400Q
All institutions
f f f ~ ~ f f Public institutions
_4-year institutions
_2-year institutions
Private institutions
~ ~ f f f ~ f
O
_ f ~ ~ ~ f ~ I ~ Am, f ~
, ~ I ~
take a closer look at college enrollment trends in general and the
students who are enrolling in college.
COLLEGE ENROLLMENTS
The number of students enrolled in college has been increasing
for at least the last three decades (Figure 1-2~. This growth has been
fueled by increasing college enrollment rates among high-school graduates
and among adults in general (Figure 1-3), rather than from increases
in the number of high school graduates or college-age adults (defined
as adults aged 18-24~. In fact, enrollment increases have occurred in
spite of a declining cohort of college-age adults over most of the last
two decades and relatively constant high school graduation rates.
The increase in college enrollment was particularly steep during
the 1970s, when community colleges were expanding. Interestingly,
however, the college enrollment rate of 18-24 year olds was fairly
constant over this period. During the 1970s, college enrollment growth
appears to have resulted from enrollment rate increases among older
adults (aged 25-34, see Figure 1-3) combined with a growing cohort
of adults in this age category (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000~.
Enrollment growth continued throughout the 1980s, fueled primarily
by an increasing enrollment rate among college-age adults. Since
1992, however, enrollment appears to have leveled off, and the increase
in the enrollment rate of college-age adults has slowed. The apparent
leveling off of enrollment does not appear to be due to changes in the
fly
f ~ f ~ f
i,, f
OCR for page 19
~ Age 18-24
50 -
40 -
° 30-
~ 20
-
10
O -
Age 25-34
Age 35+
-
-
-
,6 0 ~
~ q$E ~ ~ ,0 9,, ~
O ~ ~
-
~ ~ ~ ° ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ° ° ~ ~
l l l l l l l l l l l
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
FIGURE 1-3 Percentage of the population enrolled in postsecondary education, by age group: 1970-1998.
SOURCES: Data from National Center for Education Statistics (2000, pp. 114-115) and U.S. Census Bureau,
(2000, p. 167~.
size of the college-age population. Although this cohort became smaller
during the l990s, it shrank less during the l990s than in previous
decades, when enrollment grew. Data on the wage premiums associ-
ated with college education may provide one clue as to why growth
in enrollment rates and levels may be slowing.
College Wage Premiums
College enrollment rates can be viewed as an indicator of labor
market demand for a college education; when demand is high, the
enrollment rate increases, and vice versa. Another indicator of labor
market demand for a college education is the wage premium associ-
ated with a college education. This measure indicates how much a
college-educated worker earns compared to a worker who has only a
high school education (Figures 1-4a and 1-4b).
Comparing the trend in Figure 1-3 with the trends in Figures 1-4a
and 1-4b shows that the enrollment rate among adults aged 18-24
began to increase a few years after the wage premium for a college
education began to rise. Throughout most of the 1980s, both the
relative returns to a college education and young adult enrollment
rates increased, suggesting a strong labor market increase in the demand
for a college education during that decade. In the l990s, however, the
wage premium for a college education leveled off and college enroll-
LISA HUDSON
19
OCR for page 20
a)
~ 1.00
-
0.50 -
~ Bachelor's degree or higher
0ff0009 Some college
2.00 -
1.50 -
~ Grades 9-11
JO _
-
_ -_ _ _ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ^ 9 ~ ~ ~9 p 45, a o 9 ~ ~ o as To To 9,< no Den
. _ ~ ~ ~ — ....
~ __
_ -_ ~
.,~,, A in, 9,5> o ~ 9 9 ~ ~ ~ 9 ~ a g ~ °~ ~ ~ f ~ ~ ~
L
ooo
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
FIGURE 1-4a Ratio of median annual earnings of male wage and salary workers aged 25-34 whose highest
education level was grades 9-11, some college, or a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to those whose highest
education was a high school diploma or GED: 1970-1998.
SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics (2000, p. 144~.
—- - - Bachelor's degree or higher
9 ~ ° ~ Some college
2.00 -
1.50
o
._
a)
~ 1.00
. _
0.50
0.00
_
~ am,
—Grades9-11
in_
_ ,,.%,
_
_ _ ~ _
^_ ~
~ _ 1
~ 9 ~ is 9 ~ ~
# A ~9 ~ ~ 4'~ ~ o p of it, sap ~ ~ ~ ~
,~
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Year
FIGURE 1-4b Ratio of median annual earnings of female wage and salary workers aged 25-34 whose highest
education level was grades 9-11, some college, or a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to those whose highest
education was a high school diploma or GED: 1970-1998.
SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics (2000, p. 144~.
20
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
OCR for page 21
ment rates fluctuated, suggesting that the labor market may have (at
least temporarily) met its demand for college-educated workers. Of
course, many factors in addition to the wage premium can affect
college enrollment rates, and some factors (such as a growing high-
skill economy) may drive both measures in the same direction. None-
theless, these trends seem to suggest that labor market demand for a
college education was particularly strong during the 1980s and may
have leveled off in the late l990s.
Enrollments Among Types of Postsecondary Institutions
The overall increase in college enrollments in the last three decades
has occurred within public institutions, private institutions, four-year
institutions, and two-year institutions (see Figure 1-2~. During the
1970s, as the community college system grew, enrollment increases
were larger at public rather than private institutions and at two-year
rather than four-year institutions. As a result of these changes, from
1970 to 1980, public institution enrollments increased from 75 percent
to 78 percent of all postsecondary enrollments, and four-year institution
enrollments decreased from 73 percent to 63 percent of all enroll-
ments. Since 1980, the share of enrollments at four-year institutions
has dropped only slightly to 62 percent, and the share at public insti-
tutions has not changed. Thus, the last decade has been characterized
by fairly stable enrollment shares across public and private institutions
and across four-year and two-year institutions.
Table 1-1 provides a more detailed look at enrollments in the four
major types of postsecondary institutions public four-year, public
two-year, private four-year, and private two-year in 1981 and 1998.
(This time period was selected because the criteria NCES uses to
define the two-year sector have changed over time, such that data on
two-year institutions before 1981 are not comparable with data in the
TABLE 1-1 Fall Enrollments in Postseconclary Institutions and Distribution of
Enrollments among Institutions, by Type of Institution: ~ 98 ~ and ~ 998
1981
1998
Type of institution Enrollment % Distribution Enrollment % Distribution
Public 4-year 5,166,324 41.8 5,903,837 40.6
Public 2-year 4,480,708 36.2 5,272,347 36.2
Private 4-year 2,489,137 20.1 3,128,908 21.5
Private 2-year 235,503 1.9 244,097 1.7
All institutions 12,371,672 100.0 14,549,189 100.0
SOURCE: Snyder (2001, p. 203~.
NOTE: The 1998 data are for degree-granting institutions. Data in 1981 were not available for degree-granting
institutions, so data in this year represent two-year and four-year institutions of higher education. In any given
year, enrollment estimates for these two types of institutions differ by about 1 percent.
LISA HUDSON
21
OCR for page 48
· Expanding the program to include coverage of the costs of
licensing or certification;
· Expanding the program to cover the costs of "high-tech/short-
term" programs offered by business, such as Novell Network Engineer
certification courses; and
· Increasing the monthly stipend to cover the average costs of
tuition and expenses at public postsecondary institutions and indexing
the stipend to changes in education costs.
It is worth noting that these proposed changes suggest a strong
interest in expanding the MGIB program to include coverage of education
and training programs that are often provided by agencies or institu-
tions other than the colleges or universities.
THE LABOR FORCE
Like the military, the civilian labor force serves as an alternative
pursuit to college enrollment for students leaving high school. As is
also true of the military, the labor market often provides incentives
for college study by requiring initial or further skill development that
can be obtained through postsecondary education (e.g., continuing education
requirements for doctors), by offering raises or promotions for those
who obtain further education, and through the provision of employer
financial support for workers who go to college.
Labor Force Composition and Trends
In 1999, about 139.4 million adults aged 16 and older were in the
U.S. civilian labor force. In comparison, 68.4 million adults were out
of the labor force (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000~. Among adults aged 16
and older, this represents a labor force participation rate of 67 per-
cent. Among those in the prime working years, aged 25-64, the labor
force participation rate is 80 percent. The labor force participation
rate is related to education level, as those with higher levels of education
participate at higher rates than those with lower levels of education.
For example, in 1999, 63 percent of adults aged 25-64 with no high
school diploma participated in the labor force, as did 78 percent of
those with only a high school diploma, 83 percent of those with only
some college, and 88 percent of college graduates (U.S. Census Bureau,
2000~.
Over the decades, the labor force participation rate has been rising,
primarily because of women's increased participation. From 1950 (the
earliest year of published data) to 2000, women's participation rate
has increased while men's participation rate has decreased. Since 1965,
women's participation rate has increased faster than the rate for men
has decreased, resulting in a steady increase in the rate of overall
labor force participation, from 59 percent in 1965 to 67 percent in
48
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
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2000.~6 The declining participation rate for men appears to be due to
changing policies concerning social security, disability benefits, and
pension benefits, which have made it easier for men, particularly
older men, to leave the labor market (Fullerton, 1999~.
The Labor Force in Postsecondary Education
Some adults who are in the labor force are also enrolled in
postsecondary education, either because they are students who need
to work to pay for their schooling or because they are workers who
have decided to return to school. In 1995-1996, about 13.3 million of
the 19.5 million students who were enrolled in postsecondary educa-
tion (68 percent) were also in the labor force. This suggests that in
1995 about 10 percent of the total labor force was enrolled in college.
About 3.9 million of these working students (20 percent of all students,
and 3 percent of the labor force) defined themselves primarily as
employees who were going to school ("student employees"), a group
that is in many ways distinct from other students.
Among undergraduates, student employees tend to be concen-
trated in public two-year institutions, suggesting that workers seeking
further education and training are particularly likely to attend public
two-year institutions (which are primarily community colleges). In
1995-1996, 67 percent of undergraduate student employees were enrolled
in public two-year institutions, 17 percent in public four-year institutions,
5 percent in private for-profit institutions, and most of the remaining
11 percent in private four-year institutions (Lee and Clery, 1999~.
The Demand for Skills
Historically, skill demands in the labor market have increased
over time, and the recent past is no exception. For example, a 1994
national survey of employers found that 57 percent reported that skill
demands were increasing for jobs in their companies while only 2 percent
reported a decline in skill demands (National Center on the Educa-
tional Quality of the Workforce, 1995~. Nonetheless, the majority of
all current labor market jobs do not require education beyond the
high school level. In 1998, 72 percent of all occupations required
only work experience or on-thejob training. In comparison, 7 percent
of all occupations required an associate degree or vocational training,
and 22 percent required a bachelor's degree or higher (BLS, 2000~.
Because these requirements are based primarily on the education
composition of labor market participants, they closely match the edu-
cation level of the population. In 1998, 7 percent of adults age 25 or
16From 1965 to 2000, women's participation rate rose from 35 percept to 60per-
cent, while men's participation rate dropped from 81 percent to 75 percent. (These
labor force participation data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web site
http://stats.bls.gov.)
LISA HUDSON
49
OCR for page 50
older had an associate degree, and 24 percent had a bachelor's degree
or higher (Snyder, 2000~.
Occupational projections suggest that the largest number of new
jobs in the coming decade will be in occupations that require only
short-term on-thejob training, mainly because that is the education
requirement for most of today's existing jobs (BLS, 2000~. Job growth,
however, is more concentrated in jobs that require postsecondary edu-
cation. Projections of employment growth from 1998 to 2008 show
that 57 percent of new jobs will be in occupations that do not require
postsecondary education, 11 percent will be in occupations that require
an associate degree or vocational training, and 33 percent will be in
occupations that require a bachelor's degree or higher (BLS, 2000~.
The faster-than-average growth among jobs that require postsecondary
education is expected to result mainly from increases in health and
computer-related occupations. For example, among occupations at the
associate degree/vocational training level, the fastest-growing occupations
are registered nurses, computer support specialists, and licensed practical
nurses. At the bachelor's degree level, the fastest-growing occupa-
tions are computer systems analysts, general managers/executives, and
computer engineers. These projections reflect where growth has occurred
in the recent past and, as seen above, are largely consistent with
recent trends in degree fields of study, where growth has been most
pronounced in business, technical, and health fields.
Skill demands in the labor market appear to be increasing both
because of the changing nature of the labor market as a whole (i.e.,
the shift to higher skill jobs) and because the skills required for specific
jobs are also increasing. This increase in skill demands is reflected in
increasing proportions of workers Participating in work-related educa-
tion activities (including college enrollment).
particularly notable among workers in the trades occupations and in
sales and service occupations, as opposed to professional occupations
(Creighton and Hudson, 2002~.
1 1 0
.. ..
These increases are
Employer Financial Support
Employers often provide support for the further education of their
employees, including participation in postsecondary education. For
example, in a 1995 survey of business enterprises with at least 50
employees, the BLS found that 61 percent of these employers offered
tuition reimbursement programs in 1994 (Frazis, Gittleman, Horrigan,
and Joyce, 1997~. This training practice was second only to the financing
of off-site training (including conference attendance) among the edu-
cation and training benefits provided by employers.
Another Perspective on the role of emolovers in supporting
1 1 1 ~ 1 1 "7
. . . ~ ~ . . . mu. .
postsecondary education comes from surveys of college students. lhls
perspective shows that while many employers offer tuition assistance,
relatively few college students receive it. Using the NCES National
Postsecondary Student Aid Study, Lee and Clery (1999) found that
50
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
OCR for page 51
6 percent of all undergraduates in 1995-1996 (about 700,000 under-
graduates) received financial aid from their employers. However, among
undergraduates who consider themselves to be primarily employees
who are going to school, a much higher percentage 25 percent-
received employer aid. Employer financial aid is also more common
among graduate students than among undergraduates; among graduate
students who considered themselves primarily employees, 42 percent
received employer aid.
Lee and Clery (1999) also found that students in some fields of
study were more likely than those in others to receive employer aid.
At the undergraduate level, over one-third of students enrolled in
business, engineering, and computer/information science programs received
employer aid, compared to one-quarter of those in health programs
and no more than one-fifth of those in other program areas. At the
graduate level, students in business programs were more likely to
receive emolover aid than were students in all other Program areas
(14 percent versus no more than ~ percent). lnese ilncllngs suggest
that recent growth in business and computer-related degrees may be
partially the result of employer support for workers to obtain these
degrees.
Yet another perspective on employer support for postsecondary
education comes from surveys of adults. Lee and Clery (1999) also
used NCES' Adult Education Survey to examine the extent to which
adults received employer support for their participation in "credential
programs." Because of ambiguity in the definition of this term, credential
programs may include vocational training programs and noncredit
courses taken to receive continuing education requirements or other
formal credentials, in addition to for-credit college enrollments. Among
adults in these programs, 24 percent received employer financial support,
and 33 percent received some other form of employer support (such
as time off from work). About half of adults in credential programs
(53 percent) received one or the other type of employer assistance.
The likelihood of receiving employer financial aid for a creden-
tial program varied depending on one's occupation, with workers in
occupations that have higher skill demands (and workers with higher
incomes) being more likely to receive employer financial support
than those in occupations with lower skill demands (and lower incomes).
For example, in 1995, one-half of executives, administrators, and
managers who enrolled in credential programs received financial assistance
from their employers. This figure compares to 10 percent of those
employed in marketing and sales and 4 percent of those who were
handlers, cleaners, helpers, or laborers (Lee and Clery, 1999~. These
findings suggest that employer support for college education may
increase in the future, as the labor market (slowly) shifts to the management
and technical jobs that employers most often support.
The findings summarized above demonstrate one important difference
between federal student financial aid and employer aid. While the
federal government provides financial support for postsecondary education
LISA HUDSON
51
OCR for page 52
for the benefit of society, employers provide this support primarily for
the benefit of their company. This goal means that employers tend to
financially support those workers who are most likely to increase
company productivity or profitability as a result of their education-
i.e., managers, skilled technical workers, and other high-skill, high-
demand workers who cannot be easily hired with the requisite skills
or who cannot continue to function effectively without further educa-
tion. Thus, while employer aid can and does support postsecondary
education, it tends to do so in a way that further exacerbates differ-
ences between the educational "haves" and "have note."
One reason so many employers provide tuition assistance is that
federal policy provides incentives to employers to do so through "Sec-
tion 127" benefits. This legislation allows employers to provide their
employees (as of 2000) up to $5,250 tax-free to pay for undergraduate
tuition. Employers have the additional incentive of not having to pay
their share of the FICA contribution on this funding (i.e., the aid does
not count as earnings). Current Section 127 legislation had been scheduled
to expire in December 2001, but the Economic Growth and Tax Relief
Act of 2001 recently made these benefits permanent, which means
that this policy will be in place for at least the next 10 years (when the
new Act expires). The 2001 Act also extended these benefits to cover
graduate school tuition. Both the lon.~-term provision of this benefit
_ _ ~
1 ·, , · , 1 , 1 1 r ,1 1
and its extension to graduate school may further encourage employer
support for postsecondary education, and thus may further encourage
the participation in postsecondary education of working adults.
Postsecondary Institutions as a Provider of Worker
Training
In addition to postsecondary education, workers often receive other
types of education and training, much of it provided by their employer.
The 1995 BLS survey of employers found that 93 percent of enter-
prises that have at least 50 employees provided some type of formal
training for their workers and that 70 percent of workers in these
enterprises received formal employer-provided training over a one-
year period (Frazis et al., 1997~. Postsecondary institutions are a source
for some of this employer-provided training but not the bulk of it.
According to the BLS survey, only 17 percent of employers used
postsecondary institutions as a training source for employer-provided
training (BLS, 1996~.
Another perspective on the role of postsecondary education as a
provider of adult education and training comes from the 1995 NCES
Adult Education Survey. This survey shows that among all adults who
took courses that were not part of a credential program, postsecondary
institutions were the instructional provider for 31 percent of these
adult learners, second only to business and industry (36 percent) (Hudson,
1999~.
52
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
OCR for page 53
The Adult Education Survey also found that, although half of
adults enrolled in postsecondary institutions were taking courses leading
to a credential, half were not. This implies that adults are as likely to
use postsecondary institutions for noncredential purposes as for credential
purposes. This finding is inconsistent with NCES student surveys
showing that most students are enrolled in degree programs.~7 This
inconsistency suggests that a significant amount of continuing educa-
tion and other noncredit course taking is occurring within postsecondary
institutions that is not captured by NCES' regular student surveys.
This limitation, in turn, implies that the student enrollment data dis-
cussed earlier in this chapter show how postsecondary institutions are
used by only about half of those who receive instruction from these
institutions.
One type of college course taking that is missing from NCES
surveys is course taking designed to lead to an industry or company
credential only. Not much is yet known about these activities. Adelman
(2000) has recently examined credentialing in the information tech-
nology (IT) industry, the largest sector of the industry credentialing
movement. His data show that while IT credentials were virtually
unheard of a decade ago, as of January 2000, 1.7 million credentials
had been awarded by the IT industry. It would appear that the credentialing
"movement" is well underway in the IT industry. A less advanced,
but broader effort to encourage industry credentialing is being advanced
by the National Skill Standards Board (NSSB), an organization initiated
by the National Skill Standards Act of 1994. The NSSB is a coalition
of leaders from business, labor, employee, education, and community
organizations who are working to build "a voluntary national system
of skill standards, assessments, and certification systems" to enhance
workforce development. The NSSB proposes to develop skill standards
in 15 industry sectors. At present, standards have been developed in
the manufacturing and the sales and service industries; standards are
under development in the education and training and the hospitality
and tourism industries. It is not yet clear how the work of the NSSB
will link to postsecondary education, but the general goal seems to be
to develop a credentialing system that is industry-based, portable,
and ultimately international in scope much like the existing IT
credentialing system.
These initiatives raise questions about the trade-off between a
broad, formal education and a more narrow credentialing of skills.
Most educators would argue that the acquisition of narrow skills instead
of a broad education is a bad choice for individuals, reducing their
labor market flexibility (as well as their general intellectual foundation).
But as occupations become increasingly specialized and technical,
the credentialing of skills instead of or in addition to general educa-
|7For example, the 1995-1996 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study found
that only 3 percent of beginning postsecondary students were not enrolled in a degree
or certificate program (Kojaku and Nunez, 1998~.
LISA HUDSON
53
OCR for page 54
tional credentialing is likely to grow in popularity. It remains to be
seen what role postsecondary institutions should and will play in this
credentialing movement.
SUMMARY
From the national data, postsecondary education appears to be
doing quite well. Enrollment levels, enrollment rates, and degree comple-
tions have been increasing, in decades when the size of the college-
age cohort was shrinking, costs were rising, and student aid was uneven
at best. Further, since one of the key predictors of college attendance
is whether one's parents went to college (see, e.g., Kane, 1994),
postsecondary education is also reinforced through a self-perpetuating
process: The more adults there are who have a college education, the
more children there will be in the next generation who also seek a
college education. In turn, the more highly educated workers there are
in society, the more high-skill jobs the economy can support, further
increasing education and skill demands. Given these trends, plus projections
of a growing cohort of college-age adults in the next few decades.
postsecondary education would seem to be in a good position overall.
But the national data also hint at some potential problems. Increasing
college costs may be limiting access for some students, student loan
programs may lead to undesirable debt burdens, and business and
industry appear to be pushing for credentialing processes that could
operate independently of the postsecondary education system. Surveys
of employers and adults also show that the majority of adult course
taking occurs outside of postsecondary education. Taken together, these
findings suggest that the combination of a cost-restricted postsecondary
education system on the supply side and a growing interest in further
education on the demand side may be setting the stage for the growth
of alternative education systems and providers.
As the other chapters in this volume demonstrate, postsecondary
institutions are increasingly adopting new missions, new education
programs, and new instructional delivery strategies, while new pro-
viders (e.g., virtual universities, corporate universities, industry credentialing
agencies) are offering a wider range of alternative learning routes.
Unfortunately, these alternative strategies and systems are not well
covered in national data systems, so they do not appear in the portrait
of postsecondary education created by these data.
It is reasonable to ask why these alternative systems are so diffi-
cult to assess within a national data collection. The basic problem is
that alternative and emerging systems often do not meet the criteria
necessary for cost-effective collection of systematic, reliable data. First,
a national data collection depends on a clear and consistent definition
of all the entities from which one intends to draw a survey sample.
Thus, before one can survey postsecondary institutions, one must opera-
tionally define them and then be able to identify all institutions that
meet the definition. This task becomes more difficult when new institutions
54
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ATTAINMENT TRENDS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION
OCR for page 55
open and close at a rapid rate or when institutions or systems emerge
that do not fit existing definitions. Data collections also rely on the
willingness of survey participants to share information and on their
capacity to provide information. Both of these respondent character-
istics are often compromised in new and emerging systems. For-profit
postsecondary education institutions, for example, are sometimes unwilling
to respond to surveys for fear that their competitors will learn too
much about them. Finally, new alternatives are by definition different
from the norm, so that existing survey instruments and procedures
may simply be unable to capture or describe them.
In short, it is always difficult for national surveys to accurately
capture an emerging system or a system in flux. So national data
collections are probably not the best source for finding out what is
happening "at the margins." This is not to say that the current data
collection system for postsecondary education cannot or should not
be improved. There are a number of ways in which the current
system could be adapted to better capture the full breadth of educa-
tion alternatives facing adults. Three proposals are suggested here.
First, until better methods are devised for capturing information
directly from alternative providers, the best source of information on
these providers is the adults who enroll in education programs. The
NCES Adult Education Survey is our best source of information on
adults, but its sample size is typically too small to allow analysis of
participation in activities that may be relatively new and small scale.
A larger sample of adults is needed. Second, it would be useful to
regularly survey employers about existing policies and practices that
may influence workers' participation in traditional postseconda~y education
and other forms of learning. Previous employer surveys have been
conducted (but discontinued) by the Department of Labor and the
Department of Education; perhaps a joint Labor-Education survey
effort should be attempted. ~ ''
Nay, more focused surveys, such as
the NCbb surveys on distance education, He needed to monitor emerging
delivery systems that cannot be captured in existing surveys. Potential
topics for these focused surveys include customized training, continuing
education, the use of new technologies in traditional classrooms, and
institutions' role in industry certification.
To end on a positive note, existing federal data sources provide a
wealth of information about the traditional postsecondary education
system, only a small part of which could be included in this chapter.
We know much more about postsecondary education today than we
ever have in the past and even with a moving target our knowl-
edge is sure to improve in the future.
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.
The Knowledge Economy and Postsecondary
Education: Report of a Workshop
Chapter 1
s8
Representative terms from entire chapter:
postsecondary institutions
