volved when multiple, networked agencies operate in a complex intergovernmental bureaucracy to address a problem such as terrorism.

Federal agencies, industry consortia, and other groups addressing counterterrorism will need to develop systems-level approaches for evaluating the costs, benefits, and risks associated with homeland protection. In addition, a significant new research program in systems analysis and systems engineering for counterterrorism will be needed to develop the modeling concepts and implementations that are essential for understanding critical U.S. infrastructures. The need for improved modeling concepts applies not only to infrastructure, however, but also to the entire spectrum of science and technology for counterterrorism. The National Science Foundation (NSF) is a logical home for such a research program.

Studies will be needed in the spirit of Figure 10.1, which depicts the myriad perspectives of the homeland’s system of systems (its governance, economy, and infrastructures) as well as those of the terrorist networks. Such studies will enable a greater understanding of the nature of external threats, along with the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. critical infrastructure, so that effective policies can be formulated.

The development of concepts and computational methodologies to enhance system-of-systems research and integration would allow us to address the organizational abilities needed to execute high-level systems management. In particular, approaches for agent-based and equation-based (e.g., system dynamics) modeling would enable representation of terrorist and critical infrastructure characteristics. Research would also support the development of methodologies to improve understanding of the interconnectedness and interdependencies among critical infrastructures and to better understand, model, assess, and manage the risks to homeland security from physical, economic, social, and psychological perspectives.

Finally, the development and use of simulators and learning environments will be key supports for the analysis of counterterrorism policy. System-level insights are often counterintuitive, are not easily learned by trial and error, and have outcomes that may only be known in the long run. Simulators linked to learning environments can help systems managers develop and implement robust policies without experiencing costly system failures.

Recommendation 10.5: To support the necessary S&T, federal agencies should establish new mechanisms for funding counterterrorism research and pilot projects at various research institutions in order to support efforts at the national, regional, and local levels. In particular, the federal government should establish a long-term, multidisciplinary systems engineering and research agenda to support future modeling challenges, educational

Front Matter (R1-R24)

Executive Summary (1-24)

1. Introduction (25-38)

2. Nuclear and Radiological Threats (39-64)

3. Human and Agricultural Health Systems (65-106)

4. Toxic Chemicals and Explosive Materials (107-134)

5. Information Technology (135-176)

6. Energy Systems (177-209)

7. Transportation Systems (210-237)

8. Cities and Fixed Infrastructure (238-266)

9. The Response of People to Terrorism (267-286)

10. Complex and Interdependent Systems (287-312)

11. The Significance of Crosscutting Challenges and Technologies (313-334)

12. Equipping the Federal Government to Counter Terrorism (335-356)

13. Essential Partners in a National Strategy: States and Cities, Industry and Universities (357-371)

Bibliography (372-374)

Appendix A: Committee and Staff Biographies (375-388)

Appendix B: Panel Members and Staff (389-393)

Appendix C: Panel Activities (394-398)

Appendix D: Acronyms and Abbreviations (399-404)

Index (405-416)