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Crisis Management in the Nuclear Age (1987)

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Crisis Management in the Nuclear Age LYNN RUSTEN AND PAUL C. STERN Committee on International Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1987

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences In 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to th government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work was supported by special grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and by grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. It also has received support from the National Research Council Fund, a pool of private, discretionary, nonfederal funds that is used to support a program of Academy-initiated studies of national issues in which science and technology figure significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from a consortium of private foundations including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foun- dation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Academy Industry Program, which seeks annual contributions from companies that are concerned with the health of U.S. science and technology and with public policy issues with technological content; and the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering endowments. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control is a committee of the National Academy of Sciences. The Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War is a committee of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council. Available from the Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Printed in the United States of America.

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COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROLS W. K. H. PANOFSKY, Chairman, Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University LEW ALLEN, dR., Director, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology SOLOMON J. BUCHSBAUM, Executive Vice President, Network Planning and Customer Services, Bell Telephone Laboratories PAUL M. DOTY, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Bi- ology, and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University HERMAN FESHBACH, Institute Professor, Massachusetts Insti- tute of Technology, and President, American Academy of Arts and Sciences ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses, and Home Secretary, National Academy of Engineering EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Executive Vice President, Science Appli- cations, Inc. RICHARD L. GARWIN, Science Advisor to the Director of Research, Thomas d. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation ALEXANDER GEORGE, Department of Political Science, Stanford University DAVID A. HAMBURG, President, Carnegie Corporation of New York SPURGE ON M. KEENY, JR., President, Arms Control Association JOSHUA LEDERBERG, President, Rockefeller University MICHAEL MAY, Associate Director at Large, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California RICHARD A. MULLER, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director, Foreign Policy Studies Pro- gram, Brookings Institution * This list reflects committee composition at the time of the April 1986 seminar "Crisis Management in the Nuclear Age." · · —

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CHARLES H. TOWNES, Department of Physics, university of California, Berkeley JEROME B. WIESNER, Consultant to cbairm~n, Institute Pro~s- sor' ~assacbusetts Institute of Technology So WALTER A. ROSENBLITH, ax onto) Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences VICTOR RABINOWITCH, Director LYNN ROSTEN, Stan Associate JUANITA LEWIS, Senior Secretary 1V

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COMMITTEE ON CONTRIBUTIONS OF BEHAVORIAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE TO THE PREVENTION OF NUCLEAR WAR WILLIAM K. ESTES, Co-Chairman, Department of Psychology, Harvard University HERBERT A. SIMON, Co-Chairman, Department of Psychology, Carnegie-Mellon University KENNETH J. ARROW, Department of Economics, Stanford Uni- versity ROBERT M. AXELROD, Institute of Public Policy Studies, Uni- versity of Michigan SEWERYN BIALER, Research Institute on International Change, Columbia University BARRY M. BLECHMAN, Defense Forecasts, Inc., Washington, D.C. GEORGE W. BRESLAUER, Department of Political Science, Uni- versity of California, Berkeley TIMOTHY J. COLTON, Center for Russian and East European Studies, University of Toronto PHILIP E. CONVERSE, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan CLIFFORD J. GEERTZ, The Institute for Advanced Study, Prince- ton University ALEXANDER L. GEORGE, Department of Political Science, Stan- ford University ROBERT JERVIS, Institute for War and Peace Studies, Columbia University CATHERINE McARDLE KELLEHER, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park HAROLD H. KELLEY, Department of Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles ROY RADNER, Mathematical Sciences Research Center, AT&T Bell Laboratories JACK P. RUINA, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PHILIP E. TETLOCK, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley CHARLES TILLY, Center for Studies of Social Change, New School for Social Research v

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CHARLES H. TOWNES, Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley AMOS TVERSKY, Department of Psychology, Stanford University Staff PAUL C. STERN, Study Director JO L. HUSBANDS, Research Associate DAVID A. GOSLIN, Executive Director, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education BEVERLY R. BLAKEY, Administrative Secretary V1

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PARTICIPANTS IN THE SEMINAR ON CRISIS MANAGEMENT LEW ALLEN, JR.,* Director, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology BARRY M. BLECHMAN,** Defense Forecasts, Inc. McGEORGE BUNDY, Department of History, New York University WILLIAM K. ESTES, Chairman,** Department of Psychology and Social Relations, Harvard University ALEXANDER L. GEORGE,*** Department of Political Science, Stanford University ROBERT JERVIS,** Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University DAVID C. JONES, U.S. Air Force (retired), Former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff RONALD F. LEHMAN II, Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (Defense Policy), National Security Council WOLFGANG K. H. PANOFSKY, Chairman,* Professor and Direc- tor Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford Uni- versity FRANK PRESS, President, National Academy of Sciences JACK P. RUINA,** Department of Electrical Engineering, Mas- sachusetts Institute of Technology BRENT SCOWCROFT, Vice Chairman, Kissinger and Associates, Inc. JOHN D. STEINBRUNER,* Director, Foreign Policy Studies Pro- gram, The Brookings Institution EDWARD L. WARNER, Senior Defense Analyst, The Rand Cor- poration * Member, Committee on International Security and Arms Control. ** Member, Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War. *** Member of both committees. · ~ V11

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Foreword The National Academy of Sciences has long been involved in studying and advising branches of the government on matters of national security. In 1980, the Academy established the Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) to draw on the expertise of the scientific and engineering communities to study issues relating to international security and arms control. CISAC has been engaged in discussions with similar organizations in other countries, particularly a counterpart group of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, and in helping educate and expand the interest of U.S. scientists and engineers in international security and arms control. The establishment in 1985 of the Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War reflected the Academy's recognition that scientists can work to reduce the potential for nuclear war not only through understanding military science and technology but also by under- standing the cultural, institutional, political, and cognitive processes involved in making or preventing war. Recognizing the comple- mentarity of these different approaches, these two committees seek opportunities to coordinate their activities and cooperate on joint activities when appropriate. The first collaborative effort of the committees was a two-day seminar, "Crisis Management in the Nuclear Age," conducted for the membership of the National Academy of Sciences in the spring of 1986. To examine the problem of crisis management in all its facets, the committees invited experts in nuclear weapons technol- ogy, nuclear strategy, crisis management, organizational behavior, and military operations both scientists and practitioners. Although each speaker described crisis management from a different point of view, what emerged was not a collection of snapshots but a sur- prisingly clear multidimensional picture. This report, authored by staff members Lynn Rusten and Paul C. Stern, presents their synthesis of the many viewpoints addressed at the seminar on the nature and challenges of crisis management and possibilities for improving it in the future. Although the report owes its existence to the two committees and the participants in the seminar and even though several of these individuals have i .x

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x FOREWORD reviewed drafts of the report, the authors take full responsibility for its characterizations and conclusions. In the belief that this report can contribute to public understanding and policymaking, we encouraged its publication for a wider audience. WOLFGANG K. H. PANOFSKY, Chairman, Committee on International Security and Arms Control WILLIAM K. ESTES and HERBERT A. SIMON, Co-Chairmen, Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Sciences to the Prevention of Nuclear War

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