warranted confidence in the validity of the model’s output. It is more appropriate to include such material after the model has been refined. Alternatively, the level of uncertainty in these conclusions needs to be much more forcefully stated.

The committee believes that recommendations regarding the potential applications of the model’s various outputs would be a useful addition to the final risk assessment. The authors should make clear what they believe the model can and cannot be used for. As discussed in Chapter 7 of this review, they should devote particular attention to how anchoring can affect whether particular applications or inferences are appropriate.


The committee notes, as it has elsewhere, that the impact of cross contamination is not assessed in this draft chapter and that characterizations of uncertainty and variability in the results are either weak or absent.

The committee commends the authors for their considerable work in the development of a comprehensive chapter on risk characterization. Although there is much additional work to do to complete the risk characterization, the critical topics have been identified, and initial work presented for each.


Cassin MH, Lammerding AM, Todd EC, Ross W, McColl RS. 1998. Quantitative risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers. International Journal of Food Microbiology 41:21–44.

Codex Alimentarius Commission. 1999. Principles and Guidelines for the Conduct of Microbiological Risk Assessment. CAC/GL-30. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.

FDA/USDA (Food and Drug Administration/US Department of Agriculture). 2001. Draft Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne Listeria monocytogenes Among Selected Categories of Ready-to-Eat Foods. FDA/Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, USDA/Food Safety and Inspection Service, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, January 2001. http://www.foodsafety.gov/~dms/lmrisk.html.

ILSI (International Life Sciences Institute). 2000. Revised Framework for Microbial Risk Assessment — An ILSI Risk Science Institute Workshop report. Washington, DC: International Life Sciences Institute.

Marks HM, Coleman ME, Lin CTJ, Roberts T. 1998. Topics in risk assessment: Dynamic flow tree process. Risk Analysis 18:309–328.

WHO (World Health Organization). 1995. Application of Risk Analysis to Food Standards Issues-The report of the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultation, 13–17 March 1995 (WHO/FNU/FOS/95.3).

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement