FAIR WEATHER
Effective Partnership in Weather and Climate Services
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Task Order No. 56-DGNA-1-00002, Award No. 50-DGNA-1-90024, between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON PARTNERSHIPS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES
JOHN A. ARMSTRONG, Chair,
IBM Corporation (retired), Amherst, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. ANTHES, Vice-Chair,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
WILLIAM Y. ARMS,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
WILLIAM E. EASTERLING III,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
RICHARD S. GREENFIELD,
American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM W. HOOVER, Consultant,
Williamsburg, Virginia
JESSICA LITMAN,
Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan
GORDON McBEAN,
University of Western Ontario, Canada
RAVI V. NATHAN,
Aquila, Inc., Kansas City, Missouri (through August 2002)
MARIA A. PIRONE,
Weather Services International Corporation, Billerica, Massachusetts
ROY RADNER,
New York University, New York
ROBERT T. RYAN,
WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
KAREN R. SOLLINS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Consultant
ROGER A. PIELKE, JR.,
University of Colorado, Boulder
National Research Council Staff
ANNE M. LINN, Study Director
CYNTHIA PATTERSON, Program Officer
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate
SHANNON L. RUDDY, Senior Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON GEOPHYSICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA
J. BERNARD MINSTER, Chair,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla
ROGER C. BALES,
University of Arizona, Tucson
MARY ANNE CARROLL,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JEFF DOZIER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
DAVID M. GLOVER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
MARK J. McCABE,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
JOHN M. MELACK,
University of California, Santa Barbara
ROY RADNER,
New York University, New York
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
National Research Council Staff
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate
SHANNON L. RUDDY, Senior Project Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
RAYMOND JEANLOZ, Chair,
University of California, Berkeley
JILL BANFIELD,
University of California, Berkeley
STEVEN R. BOHLEN,
Joint Oceanographic Institution, Washington, D.C.
VICKI J. COWART,
Colorado Geological Survey, Denver
DAVID L. DILCHER,
University of Florida, Gainesville
ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILLIAM L. GRAF,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
RHEA GRAHAM,
New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Albuquerque
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
DIANNE R. NIELSON,
Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City
MARK SCHAFER,
NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia
BILLIE L. TURNER II,
Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. WILBANKS,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director
TAMARA L. DICKINSON, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
PAUL M. CUTLER, Program Officer
KRISTEN L. KRAPF, Program Officer
KERI H. MOORE, Program Officer
LISA M. VANDEMARK, Program Officer
YVONNE P. FORSBERGH, Research Assistant
MONICA R. LIPSCOMB, Research Assistant
EILEEN McTAGUE, Research Assistant
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Associate
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate
RADHIKA S. CHARI, Senior Project Assistant
KAREN L. IMHOF, Senior Project Assistant
SHANNON L. RUDDY, Senior Project Assistant
TERESIA K. WILMORE, Project Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON, Chair,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
RAYMOND J. BAN,
The Weather Channel Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM,
The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
RAFAEL L. BRAS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD,
University of Colorado, Boulder
CASSANDRA G. FESEN,
Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
GEORGE L. FREDERICK,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
JUDITH L. LEAN,
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
MARGARET A. LEMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARIO J. MOLINA,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
WILLIAM J. RANDEL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
RICHARD D. ROSEN,
Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, Massachusetts
THOMAS F. TASCIONE,
Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska
JOHN C. WYNGAARD,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Ex Officio Members
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
National Research Council Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Senior Scholar
LAURIE S. GELLER, Senior Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer
ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Project Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant
COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD
DAVID D. CLARK, Chair,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
ERIC BENHAMOU,
3Com Corporation, Santa Clara, California
DAVID E. BORTH,
Motorola, Inc., Schaumburg, Illinois
JOHN M. CIOFFI,
Stanford University, California
ELAINE COHEN,
University of Utah, Salt Lake City
BRUCE CROFT,
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
THOMAS E. DARCIE,
AT&T Labs Research, Red Bank, New Jersey
JOSEPH V. FARRELL,
University of California, Berkeley
JOAN FEIGENBAUM,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
HECTOR GARCIA-MOLINA,
Stanford University, California
WENDY A. KELLOGG,
IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York
BUTLER W. LAMPSON, CSTB member emeritus,
Microsoft Corporation, Cambridge, Massachusetts
DAVID E. LIDDLE,
U.S. Venture Partners, Menlo Park, California
TOM M. MITCHELL,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
DAVID A. PATTERSON,
University of California, Berkeley
HENRY (HANK) PERRITT,
Chicago-Kent College of Law, Illinois
DANIEL J. PIKE,
Classic Communications, Tyler, Texas
ERIC SCHMIDT,
Google, Inc., Mountain View, California
FRED B. SCHNEIDER,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
BURTON J. SMITH,
Cray, Inc., Seattle, Washington
LEE S. SPROULL,
New York University
WILLIAM W. STEAD,
Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
JEANNETTE M. WING,
Microsoft Research, on leave from Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
National Research Council Staff
MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Executive Director
ERIC BASQUES, Program Officer
KRISTEN BATCH, Research Associate
JENNIFER M. BISHOP, Senior Project Assistant
JANET BRISCOE, Administrative Officer
D.C. DRAKE, Senior Project Assistant
JON EISENBERG, Senior Program Officer
RENEE HAWKINS, Financial Associate
MARGARET HUYNH, Senior Project Assistant
ALAN S. INOUYE, Senior Program Officer
HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Scientist
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Raymond Ban, The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
David Chang, retired, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, Massachusetts
Stanley Changnon, emeritus, Illinois State Water Survey and University of Illinois, Champaign
Surajit Chaudhuri, Microsoft Research, Redmond, Washington
Bennett Z. Kobb, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., Arlington, Virginia
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle
Warren Qualley, American Airlines Flight Academy, Fort Worth, Texas
Robert M. White, Washington Advisory Group, Washington, D.C.
John Zysman, University of California, Berkeley
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Christopher A. Sims, Princeton University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Preface
Over the last four decades the provision of weather and climate services in the United States has evolved from an almost exclusively governmental function to one carried out by a combination of federal, state, and local government agencies (referred to collectively as the public sector), the private sector, and academia. This change has improved and diversified weather and climate services, but has also raised questions about the proper roles of the various sectors and the potential for actual or perceived competition. A recent National Research Council report discussed the roles of the public, academic, and private sectors in a broad range of environmental disciplines (including weather), and proposed guidelines for purchasing data and products for public purposes, dealing with data restrictions, and privatizing government functions. This report focuses on the provision of civilian weather and climate services, barriers to communication among the sectors, and opportunities for improving the effectiveness of the weather and climate enterprise.
In gathering information for this report, the committee solicited input from representatives of the three sectors, key user communities—agriculture, aviation, weather risk management, and emergency management— and experts in public policy, technology transfer, social science, and information technology. In addition to holding meetings, the committee visited several weather companies, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration facilities, and academic organizations. These include AccuWeather; NBC; WeatherData; WSI Corp.; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Penn State University; the University Corporation for Atmospheric Re-
search; National Weather Service (NWS) headquarters; National Climatic Data Center; Climate Diagnostics Center; Forecast Systems Laboratory; Climate Diagnostics Laboratory; and NWS forecast offices in Tauton, Massachusetts; State College, Pennsylvania; and Wichita, Kansas. Altogether, the committee held four committee meetings and six site visits. To facilitate communication with the broader community, the committee hosted a “town hall” meeting at the 2002 American Meteorological Society annual meeting and maintained a web site with meeting and background information. The committee actively solicited public comment and received dozens of letters.
Finally, information was gathered from the literature and from web sites. The information from web sites provided in this report was correct, to the best of the committee’s knowledge, at the time of publication. It is important to remember, however, the rapidly changing content of the Internet. Resources that are free and publicly available one day may require a fee or restrict access the next, and the location of items may change as menus and home pages are reorganized.
The committee would like to acknowledge the many individuals who briefed it, wrote letters, or provided background material or other input. They include Elliot Abrams, David Bacon, Ray Ban, Thomas Baumgardner, Nancy Bellar, James Block, Charles Bostian, William Brandon, Lee Branscome, Francis Bretherton, Bill Brune, Bruce Budd, Craig Burfeind, David Chang, Stanley Changnon, Don Coash, John Couzelis, Michael Dangelo, William Depuy, Randy Dole, Rainer Dombrowsky, Kelvin Droegemeier, John Dutton, Steve Easley, Dick Elder, Kerry Emmanuel, Allen Eustis, Nick Faust, Margaret Fowke, John Freeman, Joe Friday, Michael Fritsch, Craig Fugate, Fred Gadomski, Rodger Getz, Mark Gildersleeve, Mary Glackin, Russell Gold, David Goodrich, Edward Gross, Richard Grumm, Ron Guy, Jim Hansen, Robert Hart, James Hatch, Chance Hayes, Jack Hayes, Stan Heckman, Steven Hilberg, David Hofmann, Charles Hosler, Ian Hunter, Lodovica Illari, Doug Jonas, Tom Karl, Frank Kelly, Jack Kelly, Michael Kleist, Paul Knight, Rob Korty, Kevin Lavin, Greg Lawson, Sharon LeDuc, Alexander MacDonald, Greg Mandt, Marvin McInnis, David McLaughlin, Greg McRae, Jim Menard, Rick Murnane, Barry Lee Myers, Evan Myers, Joel Myers, Celeste Oakes, David Ondrejik, Chris Orr, Joseph Ostrowski, Alan Plumb, Irwin Prater, Jeff Reaves, Kenneth Reeves, Dan Ristic, Steven Root, Jim Severson, Jeffrey Shorter, Michael Smith, Richard Spinrad, Carl Staton, Mike Steinburg, Peter Stone, Michael Stonebraker, Robert Thompson, Lloyd Treinish, Lou Uccellini, Bill Weaving, Jonathan Weinberg, Roger Williams, Greg Withee, Megan Woodhead, John Wroclawski, and John Zillman. The committee also thanks Edward Johnson and Peter Weiss of the NWS Strategic Planning Office for their detailed responses to letters from the private sector and to numerous questions from the committee. Thanks go to the study director, Anne Linn, and
the program officer, Cynthia Patterson, for their outstanding support throughout the committee’s work. Finally, the committee extends special thanks to Roger Pielke, Jr., and Edward Zajac, who wrote white papers at the request of the committee. Roger also served as an unpaid consultant to the committee and provided invaluable insight to the policy issues surrounding the public-private partnership throughout the course of the study.
John A. Armstrong, Chair
Committee on Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services
IMPACT OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES ON PARTNERSHIPS |
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B Public-Private Provision of Weather and Climate Services: Defining the Policy Problem |
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E On Fairness and Self-Serving Biases in the Privatization of Environmental Data |
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