Environmental Information for Naval Warfare
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report and the committee were supported by a grant from the Office of Naval Research and the Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION FOR NAVAL USE
PAUL E. TOBIN (Chair),
Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, Fairfax,Virginia
THOMAS P. ACKERMAN,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington
ARTHUR B. BAGGEROER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
E. ANN BERMAN,
Tri-Space, Inc., McLean, Virginia
STEPHEN K. BOSS,
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
TONY F. CLARK,
North Carolina State University, Raleigh
PETER C. CORNILLON,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
CARL A. FRIEHE,
University of California, Irvine
EILEEN E. HOFMANN,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
ROBERT A. HOLMAN,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
GAIL C. KINEKE,
Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
JOHN M. RUDDY,
Missile Defense Agency, Washington, DC
Staff
DAN WALKER, Study Director
JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Assistant
DENISE GREENE, Senior Project Assistant
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
NANCY RABALAIS (Chair),
Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin
ARTHUR BAGGEROER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JAMES COLEMAN,
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
LARRY CROWDER,
Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina
RICHARD B. DERISO,
Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, La Jolla, California
ROBERT DITTON,
Texas A&M University
EARL DOYLE,
Shell Oil (ret.), Sugar Land, Texas
ROBERT DUCE,
Texas A&M University, College Station
WAYNE R. GEYER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
STANLEY R. HART,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
MIRIAM KASTNER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
RALPH S. LEWIS,
Connecticut Geological Survey, Hartford
WILLIAM MARCUSON,
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, (Ret.)
JULIAN P. MCCREARY, JR.,
University of Hawaii, Honolulu
JACQUELINE MICHEL,
Research Planning, Inc., Columbus, South Carolina
SCOTT NIXON,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
SHIRLEY POMPONI,
Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute, Ft. Pierce, Florida
FRED SPIESS,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
JON G. SUTINEN,
University of Rhode Island, Kingston
NANCY TARGETT,
University of Delaware, Lewes
Staff
MORGAN GOPNIK, Director
SUSAN ROBERTS, Senior Program Officer
DAN WALKER, Senior Program Officer
JOANNE BINTZ, Program Officer
JENNIFER MERRILL, Program Officer
TERRY SCHAEFER, Program Officer
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer
JOHN DANDELSKI, Research Associate
SHIREL SMITH, Administrative Associate
JODI BACHIM, Senior Project Assistant
NANCY CAPUTO, Senior Project Assistant
DENISE GREENE, Senior Project Assistant
SARAH CAPOTE, Project Assistant
BYRON MASON, Project Assistant
JULIE PULLEY, Project Assistant
Preface
During my years of naval service, I depended on accurate and timely information about atmospheric and oceanographic conditions derived from a limited number of sources. Today’s operational commander can access multiple sources via high-bandwidth data paths. This plethora of information, however, can rapidly overwhelm his or her ability to incorporate that information into real-time decisionmaking. Fortunately, the tools are now at hand to evaluate the uncertainty associated with various information products, greatly facilitating decisions based on an ever-increasing volume of information.
Introducing 13 talented scientists to the meteorological and oceanographic (METOC) community and the challenges facing it was a pleasure. After many years of Naval Service, I am very proud of the organization and particularly of the METOC community where I spent my last two years of service. U.S. Naval Forces consist of two very large, multifaceted, complex organizations (i.e., the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps). Fortunately, scientists deal with complex systems routinely, and their ability to assimilate the details of naval METOC has been remarkable. The learning process involved climbing through a Nuclear Aircraft Carrier and a Guided Missile Destroyer and visiting major METOC activities on both coasts. I am indebted to the panel members for the generous use of their time and to the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps for opening every door we requested to pass through. Seeing the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps through the eyes of scientists was very useful and enlightening for me.
The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps have each made a great investment in their METOC personnel. This community is one of the most highly educated groups in either service. A comparable investment in collection platforms, sensors, computer models, and expendable resources to cover the entire world has not and
cannot be made. Commanders, Pilots and Ship Captains all desire perfect METOC information, all of the time. There are tools now available that bring us as close to that goal as practical, provided all the needed resources are available at the desired location.
How close do we come to the goal of forecasting certainty? The answer is the traditional “it depends.” If the location were Moorhead City, North Carolina, or Camp Pendleton, California, the degree of certainty would be high in the short term. We have studied these areas intensely over the last 75 years and hold many exercises at each yearly. Sensing resources are always available and climatological data are extensive, but even in these ideal cases we cannot adequately forecast parameters like wave height and coastal currents beyond 72 hours. Locations like Kandahar, Afghanistan, present a whole range of new problems, including limited access, sparse historical data, limited remote sensing, and a hostile climate. Another complicating aspect is the varied nature of naval missions. METOC information support for peacetime naval presence varies dramatically from the most difficult scenario of all, an amphibious operation. Finally, the enemy threat must be known, and we rely heavily on the Naval Intelligence Community to provide enemy intentions and weapons capabilities. Mission, location, season, friendly weapons choices, and enemy intentions are all part of a complex matrix that the Commander and METOC planners must confront. The degree of forecasting success thus depends on how well scarce resources are allocated across this broad range of factors.
Some requirements, such as safety in the air and on the sea, have been well supported over the years and although important do not offer the potential for large new payoffs through increased investments. Properly chosen increased support of warfighting mission areas could yield major gains in terms of weapons performance and ultimate victory. An example would be enhanced remote sensing through aircraft, autonomous aviation vehicles, or satellites in support of Precision-Guided Munitions. Reducing uncertainty here could be critically important. Current trends in weapons deploymneet suggest that this is and will continue to be the case.
Since we are dealing with scarce resources, it is no surprise that uncertainty and business models are areas that this study has found as keys to the future. We are very fortunate to have the tools at hand to ensure accurate forecasting and success in combat. We currently excel in this process, and if we make the right choices in the future, environmental uncertainty will not be completely eliminated but will be a far more manageable concern for our commanders. The following study will describe a process that I firmly believe will take us to that goal.
Paul E. Tobin, RADM USN (ret.)
Chair, Committee on Environmental Information for Naval Use
Acknowledgments
This report was greatly enhanced by the participants of the multiple information-gathering activities held as part of this study. The committee would first like to acknowledge the efforts of those who gave presentations at meetings. The following individuals provided significant insight by making formal presentations to the committee.
JOE ATANGAN
RUSS BEARD
JERRY BIRD
JERRY BOATMAN
MARK BOSTON
MELBOURNE G. BRISCOE
HOUSTON COSTOLO
DOUG CRONIN
TOM CUFF
JOHN GARSTKA
JERRY GATHOF
ALFRED GENT
CHRISTINE JARET
ROB LAWSON
STEVE LINGSCH
MICHAEL S. LOESCHER
STEPHEN MARTIN
DINTY MUSK
TERRY PALUSZKIEWICZ
JAMES RIGNEY
RICHARD SPINRAD
JOSEPH SWAYKOS
VAN GURLEY
PHIL VINSON
The committee also met with various Navy and Marine Corps personnel during seven subgroup meetings. These meetings were invaluable, and we would like to express our appreciation to each individual, but there are too many names to mention. The committee is also grateful to the Navy panel that provided important discussion and/or material for this report:
CAPT TY ALDINGER, Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Fleet; LCDR JIM BERDEQUEZ, DCNO for Expeditionary Warfare (N75); LT COL (RET) TOM CUMMINS, USCM, Defense Intelligence Agency; DR. RON FEREK, Office of Naval Research; CAPT CHRIS GUNDERSON, Deputy Oceanographer of the Navy; LCDR VAN GURLEY, Commander, Cruiser-Destroyer Group 2; LCDR PAUL MATTHEWS, Commander, Naval METOC Command; LCDR TONY NEGRON, Commander, Naval METOC Command; DR. TERRY PALUSZKIEWICZ, Office of Naval Research; DR. RUTH PRELLER, Naval Research Laboratory; CAPT DAVE TITLEY, Dept Asst. SECNAV (Mine/ Undersea Warfare); and CDR ZDENKA WILLIS, Commanding Officer, Naval Ice Center.
The committee also owes significant thanks to the members and staff of the Naval Studies Board. The willingness of Alan Berman and Richard Ivanetich to review the report, of Art Baggeroer to serve on the committee, and of the NSB staff to provide assistance where possible reflects a genuine and deep commitment to helping the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps benefit from the best scientific and technical advice available.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
DR. ALAN BERMAN, Independent Consultant, Alexandria, Virginia
REAR ADM MILLARD S. FIREBAUGH, General Dynamics, Electric Boat Corporation, Groton, Connecticut
DR. DONALD P. GAVER, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
DR. RICHARD IVANETICH, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia
DR. ALFRED KAUFMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia
DR. JOAN OLTMAN-SHAY, Northwest Research Associates, Inc., Bellevue, Washington
REAR ADM RICHARD F. PITTENGER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
DR. ROBERT WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
GEN KEITH SMITH, U.S Marine Corps. (ret.), Vienna, Virginia
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Brad Mooney, appointed by the Divison on Earth and Life Studies, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.