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~2
Urban Population Change: A Sketch
The first section of this chapter reviews the international extensions of the themes
explored in the previous chapter, examining how cities occupy positions in the
larger contexts of regional and global networks of trade, finance, and information.
The term "globalization" is often invoked to describe the remarkable changes un-
der way in communications and economic relations worldwide. The processes of
globalization are surely as old as human history, but recent years have seen un-
precedented developments in the speed, scale, scope, and complexity of change.
In its modern forms, globalization is characterized by a rapid evolution of the in-
ternational division of labor, increased trade and foreign direct investment (FDI),
a quickening pace of transnational communication, and a dramatic expansion of
cross-border business alliances (Cohen, 1981; Berry, Conkling, and Ray, 1997~.
In the eyes of critics, the modern forms of globalization are also associated with
rising inequality and social polarization.
Historically and today, globalization has taken effect mainly through networks
of trade. These networks link geographically distant consumers and producers,
establishing relationships of identification and interdependence, and provide a ve-
hicle for cultural exchange. In the modern era, flows of goods between countries
offer parallel opportunities to expand trade in services. Trade is intertwined with
other elements of globalization, such as movements of financial capital and highly
skilled labor. Today, transnational corporations firms that operate in more than
one country, whether directly or through affiliates and subsidiaries form much
of the basis for the international system of trade (Sassen, 1994a).
Cities have historically functioned as the nodes of such global trade networks.
Indeed, it is sometimes useful to envision large cities as junctions for flows of
goods, information, and people, rather than as fixed locations at which goods and
services are produced. This view helps bring city networks whether transporta-
tion and communication networks or networks involving finance and culture into
focus (Batten, 1990~.
75
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76
CITIES TRANSFORMED
These are large topics, but our treatment of them must be brief. As mentioned
in Chapter 1, the demographic implications of globalization are, at present, quite
difficult to discern. The changes under way in trade, finance, and communication
are still too recent, and their effects too seldom traced to the level of individuals
and families, for a demographic accounting to be possible. In closing this first
section of the chapter, we offer some speculations about the areas in which demo-
graphic effects might be seen most clearly.
In the following sections of the chapter, we take up the task of linking demo-
graphic data to the concepts that have dominated the discussion thus far. Glob-
alization may set cities in new contexts, but, as will be seen, the demographic
features of their urban transitions are a mix of novel and familiar elements. We
give a brief summary, describing in broad strokes the scale of recent urban change,
with particular attention to the emergence of large cities in the developing world,
the pace of change, and the main differences in urban experience by demographic
regime and level of national income. Having sketched this background, we then
return to the regional context and explore the similarities and differences among
the transitions of African, Asian, and Latin American countries. These regional
comparisons leave little doubt about the unevenness of globalization and the great
variety of socioeconomic contexts in which urbanization is taking place.
CITIES AMID GLOBAL FORCES
Over the past 20 years, cities have become decidedly more international in their
orientation. In a world of easier cross-border flows of information, capital, goods,
and people, the firm control once exercised by nation states appears to have been
loosened by deregulation, privatization, and the growth of foreign investment.
As national governments adopt new forms of governance and allow markets and
smaller governmental units to assume more prominent roles, cities find themselves
having to redefine their positions in the international arena.
As nation states step back somewhat from center stage, it becomes possible to
discern an emerging transnational system in which cities and corporations are key
players, operating within complex networks of relations (Taylor, 2000; Gipoulou,
19984. Increasingly, we believe, it will be membership in such networks that
serves to define "global cities." Investments in infrastructure and human capital
will give some cities access to strategic international circuits of exchange, allow-
ing them to present themselves as viable sites for foreign direct investment. Other
cities will lack the necessary capital and will be restricted to regional or domestic
roles.
A paradox of globalization is that, while creating more linkages and inter-
dependencies, it also underscores the importance of comparative advantage at
the subnational and local levels. Transnational corporations become increasingly
aware of the niches where cheap and reliable labor can be found, and learn in
detail of the constraints of local transport and infrastructure. Hence, when seen
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URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
77
from a global corporate perspective, the cities of low-income countries are likely
to appear increasingly diverse (Sassen, 2002~.
To appreciate the scale of the changes that are under way, consider the breath-
taking physical and structural transformations occurring in some cities of Pacific
Asia.i Shenzhen, the border city just north of Hong Kong, is perhaps the most
remarkable example. In 1979, when it was designated a Special Economic Zone,
Shenzhen was an obscure fringe settlement of some 35,000 inhabitants. Over the
course of the next two decades, it rose to become a metropolis of 4 million in-
habitants, boasting the highest wage levels in China, and having one of China's
two stock markets and its heaviest concentration of foreign investment. The city
of Pudong the part of Shanghai lying to the east of the Huangpu River has
since 1990 been transformed from a constellation of villages into an urban ag-
glomeration premised upon technology and innovation. Kuala Lumpur has also
reinvented itself, acquiring a modern image with the construction of the 88-story
Petronas Twin Towers, the starting point of a new development corridor that ex-
tends 70 kilometers to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport.
In these cases, countries and cities have proven themselves capable of mobi-
lizing great quantities of human and physical capital in remarkably brief spans of
time. Such concentrations of resources must eventually reshape patterns of mi-
gration and other demographic behavior, although the forms these demographic
responses will take are not yet fully apparent. In what follows, we touch briefly
on several of the important developments in the globalization of cities.
Financial Services and Foreign Direct Investment
In the realm of finance, it appears probable that today's powerful centers New
York, London, and Tokyo will continue to dominate the world markets. A1-
though financial transactions can now be executed over great distances, the firms
that mediate the risk of these transactions are themselves located in only a few
major cities. At the regional level, the scale of investment required makes it un-
likely that very many cities can soon expect to attract a critical mass of interna-
tional financial firms. The regional centers of finance will probably be located in
those few cities whose political and economic systems are relatively secure, and
where the legal system provides effective regulation, mediating disputes, prose-
cuting offenders, and providing compensation for wrongdoing. The situation of
Hong Kong bears watching, because its recent change in political status has raised
fears about the continuity of legal protections under Chinese rule.
iThese changes are both the cause and the consequence of spectacular economic growth. In the
period 1970-1990, some cities in the region registered increases in gross domestic product (GDP) in
excess of 1,000 percent. These included Seoul and Tokyo, which recorded increases of 2,127 and
2,994 percent, respectively. During the same period, Hong Kong's GDP rose 15-fold, and its exports
rocketed upward 27-fold (Savitch, 1996).
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78
is
CITIES TRANSFORMED
The role of FDI, described more fully in Chapter 8, has become exceedingly
.mportant in certain regions of the developing world. Such investments, which
involve south-to-south flows as well as flows from northern economies, are signif-
icant in several respects. They are notable for being highly concentrated in just a
few developing countries, with Brazil, China, and Mexico taking about half of the
current flows, and are equally notable for their absence from much of sub-Saharan
Africa and South Asia (World Bank, 2002a). Foreign investments are also spa-
tially concentrated within countries, although the favored locations have tended to
change with time. In an earlier era, FDI was often concentrated in extractive in-
dustries and natural resources, but more recently these investments have gone into
manufacturing and urban locations (for the case of Indonesia, see Douglass, 1997~.
The increasing prominence of FDI reflects the extent to which international
firms headquartered in high-income countries now prefer to operate with multiple
international affiliates, partners, and subcontractors. In some accounts, as will be
discussed, these collaborative efforts are said to facilitate the transfer and local
adaptation of new technologies. International networks of emigrants are also be-
lieved to provide important conduits for foreign investment and technology trans-
fer (Rauch,2001~. For instance, a study of Fujian province shows that its Chinese
emigrants have been a major source not only of capital, but also of commercial
information and technical know-how (Yeung and Chu, 2000~. Age-old Chinese
business networks are being refitted to the needs of a globalizing era, tapping re-
sources that flow through formal financial systems (Olds and Young, l999~.
Emerging Regional Networks
In Pacific Asia, the emergence of several "growth triangles" testifies to the in-
creasing importance of regional linkages. Figure 3-1 depicts these economic sys-
tems, which can present unique cross-border challenges to governance. Singa-
pore, for example, has sought to establish a regional growth network with links
to the Riau Islands in Indonesia and Malaysia's province of Johor (Macleod and
McGee, 1996; Young, 2000~. Another growth triangle is developing in Southern
China. It incorporates Fujian and Guangdong provinces on the mainland with
Hong Kong and Taiwan, establishing a web of relations in which emigrant net-
works are much involved. Figure 3-1 depicts several other regional networks,
which differ in maturity and depth of integration (Yeung,2000~. The Pacific Asia
region is also witnessing the formation of "urban corridors" that connect cities
across the region. Perhaps the best example of this is the Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo
(BESETO) "ecumenopolis," which stretches for 1500 kilometers and connects 77
cities of more than 200,000 inhabitants each (Choe,1996~.
Markets and Volatility
Regional and international markets are the conduits through which new technolo-
gies and demands are conveyed to city populations. Open borders also put local
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
urban population
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
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80
CITIES TRANSFORMED
firms at risk of losing their markets to imports. As discussed in Chapter 8, in poor
countries the dismantling of barriers to trade presents efficient firms with new
opportunities, but can subject inefficient firms to withering international compe-
tition. Because cities are the gateways between national and international mar-
kets and because they are often the sites of inefficient firms dating to the import-
substitution era, city populations can be exposed more openly than rural popula-
tions to the risks of market engagement.
Perhaps the greatest volatility and potential for contagion is seen in world
markets in stocks, bonds, and currencies (World Bank, 2002a). The computerized,
round-the-clock operation of these markets means that when a problem surfaces
in one major market, it can very quickly affect others. The global stock market
collapse of 1987 provided an early warning of the contagiousness of financial
shocks, as did the Mexican financial crises of 1982 and 1994. The most serious
episode of recent years, however, took place in the latter part of 1997, when in
the span of a few months most countries along the western Pacific Rim found
themselves in the grip of financial and political crisis. Chapters 6 and 8 explore
the demographic and economic implications of such crises.
World Cities
With the unfolding of new forms of global economic relations, urban scholars have
been exploring new ways to categorize cities. Over the past two decades, there
has been an outpouring of research on the roles played by cities and systems of
cities in the global economy (e.g., Knox and Taylor, 1995; Young, 2000; Sassen,
2000, 2001b; Taylor and Walker, 2001~. In the formative stages of the debate,
Hall (1966) and Friedmann and Wolff (1982) drew attention to a class of cities-
termed "world cities" that assume pivotal roles in the global economy. New
York, London, and Tokyo occupy the uppermost tier because of their dominance
of finance and specialized services, their importance as sites of production and in-
novation, and their role as markets for new products and services (Sassen,2001b).
Friedmann (1986) identifies 30 cities with claims to world city status, although
arranging them in well-ordered hierarchies has proven to be difficult (Friedmann,
1995~. The common thread in this research is the idea that a few cities form the
dominantloci in today's global economy, contributing disproportionately to the in-
ternationalization of capital, production, services, and even culture (Yeung,1995~.
As cities are becoming more interdependent, they are also becoming more
self-consciously competitive. This competition is conducted partly through eco-
nomic investment strategies, but it also has something of a marketing and pro-
motional aspect. Some city competitions, such as those for the World Cup, the
Olympics, and the Asian Games, are meant to capture the headlines. These events
are opportunities to project positive city images. As cities aspire to compete in
regional and global arenas, they also invest in building human capital, moderniz-
ing conference facilities, upgrading physical infrastructure, beautifying the built
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
81
environment, and protecting the natural environment. In globalized settings, a
city's comparative advantage lies not only in the tangible resources it can offer,
but also in its sets of networks and contacts (Gipoulou, 1998~. As cities prepare
themselves for competition, their municipal governments can help create environ-
ments in which business firms can explore new networking opportunities.2
Demographic Implications?
The full demographic implications of these developments are, at this point, still
difficult to discern. As cities undertake ambitious investment plans, human capital
and social infrastructure figure prominently among their strategic themes. Deci-
sions to invest in schools, transportation, and faster communication undoubtedly
raise urban productivity and can serve to better integrate rural areas. These in-
vestments also generate new types of inequality, benefiting some groups while
displacing others. It is reasonable to think that patterns of migration will be re-
shaped in response. If capital accumulation and new technology raise the returns
to schooling, this may encourage families to shift to reproductive strategies of
lower fertility and higher education per child.
The implications of globalization for smaller cities are potentially disturbing.
If capital is diverted from smaller cities to prepare larger cities for their global
debuts, significant costs for many of the developing world's urban dwellers could
result. When judged in relation to present resources, the challenges faced by small
cities in a globalizing era may well be proportionately greater than those faced by
megacities (Hall and Pfeiffer,2000~.
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF TO URBAN TRANSITION
By the above account, the economic and social environments facing today's cities
have many novel and unprecedented features. Is the urban transition equally novel
in its demography? The transitions now under way differ in many respects from
the experiences of Europe and the United States in the first half of the twen-
tieth century. They also have much in common with these earlier transitions
(Brockerhoff, 2000; Hall and Pfeiffer, 2000; Sassen, 2001a; Young, 2000~. The
scale of change the absolute numbers of people involved is clearly unprece-
dented, as are the typical rates of growth of total urban populations. It is less
certain that the demographic components of growth differ much from historical
experience. Not enough evidence remains in the record to separate the share of
2Hong Kong's recent economic success has owed much to its enterprising and resourceful business-
men, who have been extending the city-state's economic reach. For instance, Huchison Whampoa, one
of the most successful listed corporations in the territory, has made port and technology investments in
24 countries, from which the bulk of its earnings is derived (Young, 1999). Some 35 percent of Hong
Kong's gross national product has been derived from revenues from trade support activities situated
outside its borders (Hong Kong Trade Development Council, 1998).
82
CITIES TRANSFORMED
natural increase in historical urban growth (the balance of urban births against
deaths) from that of net migration and territorial reclassification. The changes in
the urban percentages of today's developing countries, rapid as they may appear
to be, are not at all unlike the historical precedents. Urbanization does appear to
be taking place at generally lower levels of per capita income than in the historical
experience, and in the case of Africa, may have become decoupled from indus-
trialization. Some of these empirical regularities are traceable to national-level
demographic regimes, which can differ a great deal from the regimes that were in
place in the histories of developed countries.
Before we describe the demographic features of today's urban transition, a
word of explanation is needed on the ways in which demographers measure urban
levels and trends. We have already mentioned the share of urban growth due to
natural increase and migration, a measure to which demographers give consider-
able attention. Four additional measures are also employed, and although they are
quite distinct in meaning, their labels are sufficiently similar to invite confusion.
The four measures are (1) the absolute annual increase in urban (or city) popula-
tion size, (2) the urban (or city) population growth rate, (3) the level of urbaniza-
tion, and (4) the rate of urbanization. The first of these is commonly described as a
measure of scale, an indicator of the numbers of people involved in urban growth.
Of course, the annual increase is affected by the urban growth rate, but growth
rates are measures of proportional rather than absolute change. The level of ur-
banization is the percentage of a country's population that lives in its cities and
towns. This is to be distinguished from the rate of urbanization, which is defined
in two ways: either as the growth rate of the urban percentage (we prefer this def-
inition) or as the absolute annual change in the urban percentage. It is also impor-
tant to maintain a distinction between the growth of the total urban population and
that of individual city populations. Total urban growth can be distributed across
individual cities, and thus across a range of city sizes, in many different ways.
In describing the main demographic features of the urban experience, we draw
extensively on the estimates and projections of the United Nations Population
Division. In so doing, we are mindful of the problems in concepts and measures
that plague the study of urban change. As will be seen in Chapter 4, the data series
available to the United Nations suffer from many limitations and inconsistencies,
and the Population Division cannot resolve all of these. For instance, the United
Nations cannot impose on its member countries a uniform definition of urban
areas, and this fact of life renders problematic all cross-country comparisons of
urban levels and trends. Nevertheless, for present purposes to identify the broad
features these data will suffice.
The Scale of Change
The sheer number of new urban residents gives perhaps the clearest indication
of the challenge facing governments and urban planners in poor countries. As
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
TABLE 3-1 Population Size and Growth, Urban and Rural, by Region
83
Growth Rate (percent)
Midyear Population (millions) 1950- 1975- 2000-
Region 1950 1975 2000 2030 1975 2000 2030
Urban
World total 751 1,543 2,862 4,981 2.9 2.4 1.8
High-income 359 562 697 825 1.8 0.9 0.6
countries
Middle- and 392 981 2,165 4,156 3.7 3.2 2.2
low-income
countries
Asia 244 592 1,376 2,679 3.5 3.4 2.2
Africa 32 102 295 787 4.6 4.2 3.3
Europe 287 455 534 540 1.8 0.6 0.04
Latin America 70 198 391 608 4.2 2.7 1.5
and Caribbean
North America 110 180 243 335 2.0 1.2 1.0
Oceania 8 15 231 32 2.5 1.7 1.1
Rural
World total 1,769 2,523 3,195 3,289 1.4 0.9 0.1
High-income 219 187 184 139 - 0.6 - 0.07 - 0.9
countries
Middle- and 1,550 2,336 3,011 3,151 1.6 1.0 0.2
low-income
countries
Asia 1,155 1,805 2,297 2,271 1.8 1.0 - 0.04
Africa 188 304 498 702 1.9 2.0 1.1
Europe 261 221 193 131 - 0.7 - 0.5 - 1.3
Latin America 97 124 127 116 1.0 0.1 - 0.3
and Caribbean
North America 62 64 71 61 0.1 0.4 - 0.5
Oceania 5 6 8 10 0.7 1.2 0.7
NOTE: High-income countries have gross national income per capita of $9,266 or
more based on World Bank estimates.
SOURCES: United Nations (2002a); World Bank (2002b).
discussed in Chapter 1, the urban population of the world is projected to increase
from 2.86 billion in 2000 to 4.98 billion by 2030, with the total for all devel-
oping countries reaching 4.16 billion (see Table 3-1~. In these countries, urban
growth rates have ranged over time from spectacular to merely alarming levels.
The period from 1950 to 1975 saw rates of urban growth of 3.7 percent across
the developing world; had these rates persisted to 2000, the total urban population
would have grown to six times what it was in 1950, with consequences that can
only be imagined. Fortunately, the growth rates did decline, falling to 3.2 percent
84
CITIES TRANSFORMED
from 1975 to 2000, and further declines, to 2.2 percent, are anticipated for the
next 30 years. As can be seen in the table, although they have faded away in Latin
America, high rates of urban population growth are still characteristic of Africa,
and African growth rates are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future.
Large Cities
Increases in total urban populations can have different spatial manifestations; in
theory, a rapid increase in the total might be accommodated by the very rapid
replication of small cities. But perhaps it is not surprising that urban growth has
generally been expressed in the number and average size of large cities. At the
beginning of the nineteenth century, Beijing (then Peking) was the only city in
the world with a million or more residents (Chandler, 1987), and at the advent
of the twentieth century, there were only 16 cities of this size. By 1950, however,
the number of such cities had risen to 86, and, as can be seen in Figure 3-2, there
are about 400 such cities today. For the next 15 years, the United Nations antici-
pates the addition of a further 150 cities to the list of those with at least a million
residents. The average size of the world's largest cities is also growing. In 1800
the world's largest hundred cities averaged only 165,000 in population; today that
average exceeds 6 million (Chandler, 1987; United Nations, 2002a).
The very upper end of the city size distribution is occupied by the megacities,
which are conventionally defined as agglomerations with populations of 10 mil-
lion or more. These cities have also become more numerous and considerably
400 -
300 -
u)
:
° 200-
z
100 -
O-
I~ l High-lncome Countries
~ Low- and Middle-lncome Countries
~ ............... - _
_ ............... ~ ...............
............... ~ ............... ~ ...............
............... ~ ............... ~ ...............
............... ~ ............... ~ ...............
............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ...............
............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ...............
............... ~ ............... ~ ............... ~ ...............
~ ~ ~
1950 1975 2000 2015
Year
FIGURE 3-2 Number of cities with a million residents or more, 1950-2015.
SOURCES: United Nations (2002a); World Bank (2001~.
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
TABLE 3-2 Number of Urban Areas and Total Urban Population by Size, 1950-2015
85
City Size
World total
10 million or
more
5to 10
million
1 to 5 million
500,000 to 1
million
Fewer than n.a.
500,000
Number of Cities
1950 1975 2000 2015
Urban Population (in thousands)
1950
1975
2000 2015
1 5 16 21
7 16 23 37
75 174 348 496
106 248 417 507
n.a. n.a. n.a.
12,339
42,121
144,335
75,134
481,455
68,118 224,988 340,497
122,107
331,576
176,414
169,164 263,870
674,571
290,113
960,329
354,448
844,296 1,502,920 1,950,323
High-income countries
10 million or 1 2 4 4 12,339 35,651 67,403 70,641
more
5to 10
million
1 to 5 million
500,000 to 1
million
Fewer than
500,000
4
38
32
n.a.
7
5
64 81
28 n.a.
n.a. n.a.
6
95
n.a.
n.a.
26,389
76,504
24,138
n.a.
54,550 37,650 45,359
n.a. 183,635
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
211,578
n.a.
n.a.
Middle- and low-income countries
10 million or 0 3 12 17 0 32,467 157,585 269,856
more
5to 10
million
1 to 5 million 40 110 267 401
500,000 to 1 74 220 n.a. n.a.
million
Fewer than n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
500,000
NOTE: n.a. means not available.
SOURCE: United Nations (2002a).
3 9 18
31
15,732
67,831
50,996
67,557
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
131,514
490,936
n.a.
n.a.
218,511
748,751
n.a.
n.a.
larger in average size. Tables 3-2 and 3-3 show how the number, size, and geo-
graphic distribution of the world's largest cities have changed over time. To better
portray the trends, Table 3-3 lists all cities with populations in excess of 5 million.
In 1950, there were only 8 cities in the world with populations of 5 million
or more. At that time, New York, London, and Tokyo were the world's largest
agglomerations, containing 12.3 million, 8.7 million, and 6.9 million residents,
respectively. Cities such as Mumbai (formerly Bombay), Mexico City, and Rio
de Janeiro were still relatively small, each having about 2.9 million residents.
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
97
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. 5-9.99 million ~ A
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-
FIGURE 3-5 Cities of more than 750,000 population in Latin America and the
Caribbean.
NOTE: Shading indicates that a DHS survey fielded in the country was included
in the panel's dataset (see Table C-1~.
SOURCES: Adapted from United Nations Centre for Human Settlements
(UNCHS) (1996~; United Nations (2002a).
affected in the 1980s and 1990s by severe economic recession and programs of
structural adjustment.
The countries of the region differ greatly in the extent of urbanization and the
pace of urban growth. At one end of the spectrum, countries such as Argentina,
Chile, and Uruguay were already highly urbanized by 1950, and their rates of
urbanization over the ensuing 50 years were relatively moderate. The urban
98
CITIES TRANSFORMED
proportion of Chile, for example, rose from 58 percent in 1950 to 86 percent in
2000, a gain of 28 percentage points. Over the same period, Brazil urbanized
much more rapidly, going from 37 percent urban in 1950 to 81 percent urban by
2000, a gain of 44 points. Even after half a century of sustained urban growth,
there remain large disparities across the region. Countries such as Mexico, Ar-
gentina, Brazil, Chile, French Guiana, Uruguay, and Venezuela, as well as several
Caribbean Islands, are more than three-quarters urban, while countries such as
Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Guyana remain less than half urban.
Urban growth has also been highly uneven within individual countries. In
most countries, the national capitals have grown most rapidly. But in some areas,
such as the Amazonia region of Brazil or in Mexico along the U.S. border, rapid
economic expansion has generated rates of growth considerably higher than the
national average. Generally speaking, the rate of urban growth and the growth
of some of the region's largest cities have slowed considerably over the last cou-
ple of decades. In many places, secondary cities and towns on the outskirts of
large metropolitan regions have been more successful than the larger cities in
attracting new investment and have begun to grow more rapidly (Villa and Ro-
driguez, 1996~. Thus the region has experienced "reverse polarization," as high
land and labor costs have created urban diseconomies in the largest cities and
persuaded manufacturers to relocate their plants outside the main metropolitan
boundaries.
The nature of the growth of Latin American cities can best be understood with
reference to the larger demographic, social, economic, and political contexts. The
economic history of the region since World War II is separable into three broad
periods: an era of fairly strong and sustained growth between 1945 and 1980;
a period of major economic recessions and debt crises between 1980 and 1990;
and an era of mild recovery thereafter. After World War II, urban growth in most
countries of the region was accelerated by economic growth and industrialization.
Most governments chose to expand their country's industrial base through import
substitution strategies that included support for infant industries and the erecting
of protective trade barriers. The majority of new industry was concentrated in a
few major cities, most of them national capitals.
Urban growth slowed in Latin America in the early 1980s as the region en-
tered a period of major social and economic upheaval and fell into a prolonged
economic recession. Many Latin American countries were forced to implement
stabilization and adjustment policies designed to restore their economies by reduc-
ing the size of the public sector and improving efficiency in their labor markets.
As part of these reforms, governments were obliged to rethink state-driven ini-
tiatives for industrialization based on import substitution, and most governments
came to place greater emphasis on the role of market forces in determining the
location and nature of new economic growth. Many industries that had been de-
veloped on the basis of import substitution were forced to contract or close as local
consumer markets shrank and protective barriers were removed (UNCHS,1996~.
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
99
Although there was a measure of economic recovery in the l990s, living stan-
dards in many of the region's major cities remain lower than they were in the 1970s
(Gilbert, 1996~. Evidence of both absolute and relative poverty is clearly visible in
all Latin American cities: large shanty towns; large numbers of poor people; high
levels of underemployment and (in some cases) unemployment; insufficient urban
infrastructure; poor public services; crime; and high levels of air, water, and noise
pollution. Latin America remains the region with the greatest income inequality
in the world, and in many Latin American cities, slum and shanty dwellers still
make up a large fraction of the population of the city (see, for example, Garza,
2000; Cohen, 2002~.
Africa
Africa has long been one of the least urbanized regions of the world. Most African
economies are still heavily dependent on agriculture, principally at the subsistence
level. In 1950, only 15 percent of the Africa population was living in cities, as
compared with 17 percent in Asia and 42 percent in Latin America. Nevertheless,
over the past 50 years the region has undergone relatively high rates of urban
growth, a function, in part, of having relatively fewer urban residents to begin
with. By 2000, some 37 percent of the region's population lived in urban areas,
compared with 38 percent of Asia's population and 75 percent of Latin America's.
In absolute terms, Africa's urban population grew from 32 million in 1950 to
102 million in 1975 and 295 million in 2000 (United Nations, 2002a).
Most cities in Africa are small by international standards: Cairo and Lagos,
with estimated populations of 9.5 and 8.7 million, respectively, in 2000, are the
only two African urban agglomerations to make the United Nations' list of the
30 largest urban agglomerations in the world (see Figure 3-6~. According to the
United Nations, Kinshasa, with 5.1 million residents in 2000, is the only other
African city with more than 5 million residents. The United Nations estimates
that there are 40 cities with 1-5 million residents. This list includes Johannes-
burg, which the United Nations treats as a city with an estimated population of
2.3 million in 2000, whereas other estimates put the population of the Greater
Johannesburg Metropolitan Region at around 7.3 million in 1996 (Crankshaw and
Parnell, 2003~. The United Nations estimates that there are 39 cities with popu-
lations of 500,000 to 1 million and an unknown number with fewer than 500,000
residents. Africa's large cities play important economic and political roles, but
it should be remembered that just 8 percent of Africa's urban population lives in
cities of 5 million or more. The majority of urban Africans (61 percent) resides
in towns or cities with fewer than 500,000 residents.
African fertility is expected to fall substantially in the coming decades, but the
total population of the region is expected to continue to increase, from 794 million
in 2000 to 1.5 billion in 2030, with the annual growth rate being about 2.1 per-
cent. According to the latest United Nations projections, the urban population
100
CITIES TRANSFORMED
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REUNION
FIGURE 3-6 Cities of more than 750,000 population in Africa.
NOTE: Shading indicates that a DHS survey fielded in the country was included
in the panel's dataset (see Table C-1~.
SOURCES: Adapted from United Nations Centre for Human Settlements
(UNCHS) (1996~; United Nations (2002a).
is expected to increase from 295 million in 2000 to 787 million in 2030, and
its annual growth rate will be 3.3 percent. According to these projections, African
society will cross the 50 percent urban threshold sometime before 2025, reaching
53 percent urban by 2030. It is expected that a large fraction of the Africa urban
population will continue to reside in small towns and cities, and urban develop-
ment planning for such communities should probably be given high priority.
As is the case elsewhere, understanding urban change in Africa requires con-
sideration of the social, economic, and political history of the region. In Africa's
case, the role of the colonial experience merits special consideration (Stren and
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
101
Halfani, 2001~. Colonialism, which in much of Africa lasted from the late
nineteenth century until at least the early 1960s, influenced the structure and pat-
tern of African urban growth in a number of ways. Several of today's more promi-
nent African cities Abidjan, Johannesburg, and Nairobi simply did not exist
before colonial rule. They were founded and developed during colonial times
as centers of commerce and administrative activity. More generally, however,
colonialism led to the formation of an urban system that displaced the traditional
networks of trade and influence that had developed over many centuries. The
new urban system reflected colonial economic priorities, which emphasized the
exploitation of Africa's mineral resources, primary agricultural production (in-
cluding plantations), and transportation and communication activities (Stren and
Halfani, 2001~. These new patterns of commerce and trade, in turn, led to higher
levels and new patterns of migration as Africans sought work in mines, planta-
tions, and newly developing urban areas.
Colonial urbanization also affected the physical structure and layout of many
cities. Perhaps the most obvious characteristic of colonial urban planning was the
partitioning of urban space into two highly distinct zones: a "European" space
that enjoyed a high level of urban infrastructure and services, and an "indigenous"
space that was marginally serviced (Poisnot et al., 1989, cited in Stren and Halfani
2001~. The relative indifference to the needs of the African majority is said by
Stren and Halfani (2001: 468) to be "a characteristic of urban planning that was
rooted in the very fabric of the colonial state."
Following independence, the population of many African cities grew rapidly,
even in the absence of significant industrialization. City growth was fueled by
high levels of both national population growth and spatial mobility. The avail-
ability of large numbers of jobs in a newly formed public sector and better access
to health and education services, together with an urban bias in the terms of trade
between primary products and manufactured goods, combined to make urban life
attractive.
Since the 1970s, urban growth in Africa has been greatly affected by the
region's economic crisis. A current list of ailments includes declining produc-
tivity in agriculture and industry, persistent shortfalls of foreign exchange, in-
creasing indebtedness, worsening balance-of-payments positions, and declining
real wages. In addition, in several countries the legacy of long civil wars, to-
gether with years of economic mismanagement, has generated massive and rapid
population flows into cities and left economies teetering on the verge of collapse.
As a consequence of these and other prolonged economic problems, many sub-
Saharan African countries have been forced to implement stabilization and ad-
justment policies, often under the auspices of the International Monetary Fund.
These policies appear to have caused considerable social and economic distress,
particularly among urban residents.
The essential feature of current Africa urbanization, however, is that, unlike
cities in much of Asia and Latin America, African cities are economically
102
CITIES TRANSFORMED
marginalized in the new global economy. African cities are growing despite poor
macroeconomic performance and without the benefit of significant FDI in their
economies. Several large cities are growing at an average rate of 4 to 5 percent,
making it next to impossible to provide low-income housing, high-quality urban
services, or sufficient employment.
Asia
Asia is too vast and heterogeneous a region to yield easily to generalization. A1-
together the region contains 3.7 billion people, about three-fifths of the world's
population, rising from around 1.4 billion in 1950 and 2.4 billion in 1975. A1-
though population growth rates for Asia as a whole have been declining since the
late 1960s, the enormous base populations to which these rates have been applied
have resulted in very large increases in the population totals over the past 50 years.
Despite its relatively low level of urbanization (37.5 percent in 2000), Asia
contains 1.38 billion urban residents, nearly half of the world's urban population
(United Nations, 2002a). Since 1950 the region's urban population has increased
by more than a factor of five, rising from 244 million in 1950 to 1.38 billion
in 2000. By 2030, 53 percent of Asia's population is expected to be living in
urban areas, a substantial increase from the current figure of just over 37 per-
cent. Dominated statistically by China and India, the region contains almost 200
cities with 1 million or more residents and 22 cities with 5 million or more (see
Figure 3-7~. The most recent United Nations projections indicate that more than
1.25 billion people will be added to Asia's population by 2030, all of whom will
be absorbed in the region's cities and towns. By 2015,18 of the world's 30 largest
megacities will be found in Asia.
Few generalizations can be meaningful for a continent that combines some of
the richest countries in the world with some of the poorest and some of the largest
countries and economies with some of the smallest (Hardoy, Mitlin, and Satterth-
waite,2001~. Given the diversity of experience across Asia, it is useful to classify
the various countries in the region according to their level of urbanization and
economic development. Perhaps the most important distinction is that between
Pacific Asian and non-Pacific Asian countries, but further distinctions need to be
made within both of these categories.
Many cities in Pacific Asia have experienced dramatic economic growth as the
region has become integrated into the global economy. Cities on the forefront of
global restructuring, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, and Taipei, enjoyed
unprecedented growth rates of more than 10 percent per annum throughout the
1970s and early 1980s. All of these cities rank among the top trading cities in
the world; the level of gross national product (GNP) per capita in Hong Kong
and Singapore exceeds that of many European countries. Similarly rapid urban
transformation is now being seen in the "new" newly industrializing economies
(NIEs) of Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.
103
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104
CITIES TRANSFORMED
At the national level, China remains a predominantly rural country with a level
of GNP per capita that places it in the lower-middle-income range. But parts of
China resemble the rapidly developing Pacific Asian economies. Its coastal re-
gion has witnessed very rapid urban and industrial development since 1978, when
the government departed from its earlier policy of self-reliance and initiated a
new "open policy" designed to attract foreign investment and technology. In the
early years of this policy, foreign investment was limited to the four Special Eco-
nomic Zones (SEZs) Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Xiamen, and Shantou which were to
serve as testing grounds for a country-wide export-oriented development strategy.
Gradually, other special zones have been established. The result has been phe-
nomenal economic growth for these zones and a massive increase in export-led
foreign exchange earnings for China as a whole (Yeung and Hu,1992~.
In Shenzhen, for example, which was chosen as one of the four initial SEZs
because of its close proximity to Hong Kong, the value of industrial output in 1987
was almost 70 times its 1980 value, implying an annual rate of growth of 60 per-
cent per annum (Won", Cal, and Chen, 1992; Young and Chu, 1998~. Similarly,
Xiamen, located directly opposite the island of Taiwan, has enjoyed extraordinar-
ily rapid export-led growth and industrialization over the last 20 years, thanks in
large part to strong ties with overseas Chinese that brought an influx of FDI (Yeung
and Chu, 2000~. Xiamen's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by a factor
of 57 between 1980 and 1997, implying an average rate of growth of 23 percent
per annum (Howell, 2000~. Similarly, coastal cities such as Dalian, Guangzhou,
Qingdao, and Tianjin have all undergone remarkable transformations over the last
20 years since the government's open policy began (Yeung and Hu,1992~.
In Shanghai, the transformation is more recent but perhaps even more striking.
Long the largest industrial city and the economic powerhouse of socialist China,
Shanghai was one of the 14 cities designated open in 1984. The city initially
experienced relatively modest growth, lagging well behind Guangdong, Fujian,
and other parts of Southern China (Yeung and Sung, 1996; Young, 2000~. The
pace of urban development in Shanghai picked up after 1990, when the central
government announced the development of Pudong New Area, a large area of
agricultural and marginal land east of the central city. Since 1991, the growth of
FDI in the city has been nothing short of astonishing. In 1985, Shanghai attracted
US$759 million in FDI. By 1996, this figure had increased to $15.14 billion (Wu,
2000~. The city is now being dramatically restructured (Wu, 2000; Wu and Yusuf,
2003~.
Even after taking these various success stories out of the mix, it remains dif-
ficult to characterize the remainder of Asia, particularly when one considers that
this part of the world contains tens of thousands of urban centers. In India alone,
according to its 2001 census, there are more than 300 cities of over 100,000 pop-
ulation and 35 with more than a million residents (Government of India, 2001~.
For the most part, the non-Pacific Asian countries have significantly lower lev-
els of GNP per capita than the Pacific Asian countries, but there is considerable
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
105
diversity within and among countries in their economic and urban characteris-
tics. Relative to some cities in Pacific Asia, urban growth in such cities as Bom-
bay, Calcutta, Delhi, Karachi, and Dhaka, for example, has probably been fu-
eled less by economic dynamism and more by rural poverty and continued high
fertility.
Cities in the former Soviet republics Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in central Asia; Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
in western Asia have followed a somewhat different pattern. Until the collapse
of the former Soviet Union, these countries operated under systems of centralized
planning in which government decisions rather than market forces determined
the nature, scale, and spatial distribution of economic activity (Kostinskiy, 2001~.
Oddly distinctive patterns of urban development resulted. For example, the lack
of a market for land in Soviet cities led them to grow in concentric rings with
vast amounts of unused land dispersed throughout (Becker and Morrison, 1999~.
The limited role permitted to private housing markets and private enterprise and
the emphasis on large-scale housing estates imposed a very different logic on the
form and spatial distribution of cities than that seen in the West (Harloe, 1996;
UNCHS, 19964. In addition, there was a general tendency among Soviet pol-
icy makers to favor large-scale industrial production over the service and retail
sectors, and industries were often located in a manner that a market economy
would not have tolerated. There was also a tendency to keep plants in produc-
tion long after they would have been deemed unprofitable or too expensive in the
West.
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union have had enor-
mous social, economic, and demographic consequences. Political destabilization
and exposure to world market forces have resulted in an unprecedented decline in
economic output and widespread poverty, which in turn have forced a reassess-
ment of the location, functioning, and organization of productive activity and
engendered great uncertainty about the future. These developments are most ap-
parent in cities, and in some countries they appear to have sent large and small
cities in very different directions.
Between 1987 and 1994, marriage rates in the newly independent states fell
by 25-50 percent, divorce rates in some newly independent states rose by 25 per-
cent, birth rates declined by 20-40 percent, and male life expectancy fell by about
6 years (Cornia and Paniccia, 1999; Becker and Hemley, 1998~. Death rates
among middle-aged male adults rose dramatically as the result of a large in-
crease in cardiovascular disease and other preventable diseases, such as tuber-
culosis, bronchitis, pneumonia, and dysentery, as well as accidents, injuries, and
violence (Becker and Bloom, 19984. In addition, the republics on the periphery
of the former Soviet Union witnessed significant ethnic-based migration, partly as
a response to deteriorating urban living conditions and economic and social stress
and partly as a response to growing regional nationalism. In Kazakhstan, for ex-
ample, 11 percent of the population emigrated between 1990 and 1999, leading
106
CITIES TRANSFORMED
to deurbanization in the aggregate (Musabek, Becker, Seitenova, and Urzhumova,
2001~. A similar pattern of outmigration of Russians and other non-Kyrgyz eth-
nic groups was also recorded in neighboring Kyrgyzstan in the years immediately
following the breakup of the Soviet Union (Anderson and Becker, 2001~.
CONCLUSIONS
The United Nations predicts that almost all of the world's population growth for
the foreseeable future will occur in the cities and towns of developing countries.
In Africa, Asia, and Latin America alike, population growth is becoming largely
an urban phenomenon. By 2030, almost 60 percent of the population of poor
countries will live in urban areas, and this spatial transformation can be expected
to reshape social, economic, and political realms. For many if not most of the
urban residents of poor countries, city life will take place in the context of very
large cities whose scale will present residents and their governments with distinc-
tive challenges. Without doubt, the challenges of city scale that will be faced in
poor countries are unprecedented, and will call for flexible and novel responses.
As this chapter has shown, the regional and international settings in which
cities find themselves are roiling with change, presenting cities and governments
with many unsettling developments. Globalization is bestowing its benefits and
bestrewing its costs in a highly uneven fashion, with the benefits being most ap-
parent in Pacific Asia and parts of Latin America. Most African economies stand
apart from the global circuits, and they seldom partake of the FDI and technolog-
ical changes that are being experienced elsewhere.
The novelty, pace, and distribution of globalization suggest that the pheno-
menon may well transform the demographic aspects of urban transitions. It is
possible to conceive of profound effects, but empirical linkages between demo-
graphic behavior and measures of globalization have not yet been established. In-
sightful demographic studies might be focused on the cities and surrounding rural
regions of Pacific Asia, with attention to fertility and marriage, as well as migra-
tion. We can imagine research designs for Pudong or Shenzhen that might be
highly illuminating about the local demographic expressions of global economic
forces. For instance, as capital flows to the large cities of these regions, are their
small cities likely to be starved of the capital they need, or will large-city growth
be accompanied by beneficial economic spillovers? Studies of such issues have
yet to be undertaken.
Conventional demographic approaches reveal that when compared with the
historical precedents, recent urban transitions differ sharply in some aspects but
differ rather little in others. As the analysis in this chapter has shown, rates of
urban population growth are high relative to the historical standard, although it
appears that rates of urbanization are not. High rates of urban growth in to-
day's developing countries are at least as much the product of high rates of urban
natural increase as of rural-to-urban migration. Recent estimates by the United
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE
107
Nations strongly confirm earlier estimates, which attributed some 60 percent of
urban growth to urban natural increase, with the balance left to migration and
reclassification. Policy makers do not appear to have fully understood the contri-
bution of urban natural increase. If it is typically the greater part of urban growth,
a correct assessment of the situation should bring a renewed appreciation of the
role that might be played by urban family planning programs in restraining urban
growth.
