|
Items in cart [4] |
Questions? Call 888-624-8373 |
| Copyright © 2009. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Privacy Statement |
Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page R1
I~ r, Ire` '^ r]
Operational
eating and
Evaluation
Better Measurement and Test Design for the
Interim Brigade Combat Team with Stryker Vehicles
Phase I Report
Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the
Interim Armored Vehicle
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
OCR for page R2
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils
of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. DASW0 1 -02-C-DO l l between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authorks)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-08936-0 (Book)
International Standard Book Number 0-309-5 1241-7 (PDF)
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500
Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202)
334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://ww~v.nap.edu
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2003~. Improved Operational Testing
and Evaluation: Better Measurement and Test Design for the Interim Brigade Combat
Team with Stryker Vehicles. Phase I Report. Panel on Operational Test Design and
Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle, Committee on National Statistics. Wash-
ington, DC: The National Academies Press.
OCR for page R3
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Stienre, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a
mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical
matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of
the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers.
It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with
the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of
~ . .
Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences
to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination
of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the
responsibility given tO the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to
be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the
Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences
in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's
purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become
the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the
National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly
by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.
Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
OCR for page R4
OCR for page R5
PANEL ON OPERATIONAL TEST DESIGN AND EVALUATION
OF THE INTERIM ARMORED VEHICLE
STEPHEN M. POLLOCK (Chair9, Department of Industrial and
Operations Engineering, University of Michigan
SETH BONDER, Consultant, Ann Arbor, Michigan
MARION BRYSON, North Tree Fire International, Marina, California
WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
VIIAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
JOHN E. ROLPH, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern
California
FRIEDRICH-WILHELM SCHOLL, The Boeing Company, Seattle,
Washington
HAL S. STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California,
Irvine
ALYSON G. WILSON, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico
JAMES P. McGEE, Staidly Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Sta~O~icer
MICHAEL l. SIRI, Project Assistant
v
OCR for page R6
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2002-2003
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair9, Marshall School of Business, University of
Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONII, Department of Economics, Yale University
ROBERT BELL, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of
Pennsylvania
ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
JOEL HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern
University
WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North
Carolina
ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ, School of Public Policy Research, University of
California, Los Angeles
THOMAS A. LOUIS, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins
University
VIIAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey
KENNETH PREWITT, Department of Political Science, Columbia
University
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of
Michigan
ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
v'
OCR for page R7
Contents
Preface
Executive Summary
1 Introduction
2 Test Process
3 Test Measures
4 Statistical Design
5 Data Analysis
6 Assessing the IBCT/Stryker Operational Test in a Broad
Context
References
v''
.
1X
1
11
23
31
59
76
87
97
OCR for page R8
vIll
Appendices
A Letter Report of the Panel to the Army Test and Evaluation
Command
B Force Exchange Ratio, Historical Win Probability, and
Winning with Decisive Force
C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff
CONTENTS
99
105
109
OCR for page R9
Preface
The activities of the National Research Council (NRC) cover a wide
variety of assignments, in which panels of experts are asked to prepare con-
sensus reports on technical problems or public policy questions; survey
scientific, medical, or engineering knowledge; and sponsor roundtables,
forums, and meetings that focus on airing and supporting the resolution of
. . .
controversial Issues.
The Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim
Armored Vehicle has been charged with a less common task: providing an
assessment and review of an ongoing activity, the operational testing of an
important military system. The procedures for the extremely complex and
highly sensitive testing, which has yet to be carried out, are specified in the
Army's system evaluation plan (SEP) for the Stryker family of vehicles.
Both the panel and our sponsor acknowledge that the SEP is a "living
document" (or moving target); this has already been manifest by the study's
being overtaken by a number of events during the 1 1 months of the panel's
tenure:
· The Interim Armored Vehicle (IAV) in the panel's initial (and offi-
cial) name and statement of work has been renamed the Stryker family of
vehicles.
· The Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) concept, for which the
Stryker is intended to provide mobility and "situation awareness" support,
has been continuously evolving.
fix
OCR for page R10
x
PREFACE
· The timing of the initial operational test (JOT) has been delayed
from early 2002 to mid-2003.
· There has been a leadership change in the Army Test and Evalua-
tion Command (ATEC), the study sponsor.
· Three battalions, equipped with Stryker vehicles as they are being
produced (but without their armor), are currently undergoing training at
Fort Lewis and thus are a potential source of evaluative data.
Despite the difficulties of operating in this fluid environment, we have
been able to build on the recommendations of an earlier NRC report by
treating the Stryker initial operational test as a case study of how the de-
fense community might make more effective use of test resources and the
analysis of test data. Our main conclusion is that operational tests should
be used not only for go/no go decisions or confirming that a system meets
predetermined technical criteria, but also, even more important, for the
improvement of the capabilities and performance of the system.
We have been able to do this only because of the excellent and unfet-
tered cooperation and information obtained from the staff of ATEC, in
particular its previous commanding officer, Major General John Marcello,
Frank I. Apicella (technical director of the Army Evaluation Center), and
Major David Rohall (Stryker IOT evaluator).
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce-
dures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of
this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that
will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as pos-
sible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objec-
tivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review com-
ments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the re-
view of this report: Herman Chernoff, Professor Emeritus of Statistics,
Harvard University; John D. Christie, Senior Fellow, Logistics Manage-
ment Institute; Donald P. Gaver, fir., Distinguished Professor of Operations
Research, Naval Postgraduate School; and Dennis E. Smallwood, Professor
of Social Science, U.S. Military Academy.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions
or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
OCR for page R11
PREFACE
X'
release. The review of this report was overseen by William F. Eddy, Depart-
ment of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by the National
Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an indepen-
dent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institu-
tional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered.
Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the
authoring committee and the institution.
This report is the collective product of the entire panel, and each mem-
ber took an active role in drafting sections of chapters, leading discussions,
and reading and commenting on successive drafts. Staff at the NRC made
important contributions to our work in many ways. We express our appre-
ciation to Andrew White, director of the Committee on National Statistics,
for his valuable insight, guidance, and support, and to Michael Siri, the
panel's project assistant, who was indispensable in organizing meetings,
arranging travel, compiling agenda materials, coordinating with the inter-
ested community, copyediting and formatting the report, and managing
the exchange of documentation among the committee members.
Stephen M. Pollock, Chair
James P. McGee, Staidly Director
Michael L. Cohen, Sta~O~icer
Panel on Operational Test Design and
Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle
OCR for page R12
