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OCR for page 167
~ Bow
William P. Butz, Gabrielle A. Bloom, Mihal E. Gross,
Terrence K. Kelly, Aaron Kofner, Heiga E. Rippen
Science and Technology Policy Institute
RAND
This paper has the following objectives:
· To clarify the concepts of "shortage" and "low production" in the
context of scientists and engineers
· To suggest answers to the questions in the paper's title
· To point toward strategies for increasing the science and engineer-
ing (SHE) workforce
WHAT WOULD A "SHORTAGE" OF SCIENTISTS AND
ENGINEERS LOOK LIKE?
Over the last half-century, numerous alarms have sounded about
looming shortages of scientists and engineers in the United States. What
is meant by "shortage" has not always been clear. Further, the population
under discussion, the scientists and engineers themselves, has not always
shared the perspective of those sounding the alarm. Regardless, the im-
plications of a shortage of skills critical to U.S. growth, competitiveness,
and security are significant. So are the implications of the continuing low
entry of female and minority students into many SHE fields. These impli-
cations justify closer examination of the nature and sources of the over- or
underproduction of scientists and engineers. Improved understanding of
Note: The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the
Science and Technology Policy Institute of RAND.
OCR for page 168
PAN-~CANIZAHONAL SUMMIT
the definition and nature of the problem can point toward relevant data
and useful questions.
As a starting point, consider the different circumstances in which the
production of any good or service, new S&E Ph.D.'s being one, might be
called "low":
1. If production is lower than in the recent past (steel is a recent ex-
ample)
2. If competitors' share of total production is growing (electronic com-
ponent manufacturing, shoe manufacturing, and oil production are in-
creasingly foreign)
3. If production is lower than the people doing the producing would
like (automobiles, best-selling novels, blockbuster movies)
4. If less is produced than the nation is deemed to need (well-trained
K-12 teachers, community volunteers, clean urban air)
5. If production is not meeting market demand, as indicated by a ris-
ing price (nurses, Washington-area housing).
Each of these concepts of "shortage" has a place. The pain of steel
workers and their communities is real when production falls and plants
close (concept #1~. The nation's concern about reliance on Mideast oil is
justified (concept #2~. And so forth. However, one of these five concepts
of "shortage" is fundamentally different from the others in a manner cru-
cial for the question at hand. Only the fifth concept integrally embodies a
corrective mechanism that solves the problem, that induces increased pro-
duction of its own accord.
To see this, consider the S&E workforce. If production of scientists
and engineers is insufficient to meet market demand that is, if each new
crop of American scientists and engineers is too small to fill the growing
number of jobs offered by academic, industrial, and government employ-
ers then salary offers will tend to increase and unemployment or under-
employment of the S&E workforce will tend to diminish. As young people
observe this tightening labor market and consider lifetime employment
prospects along with the many other factors influencing their career
choice, some of them will opt for S&E, rather than for clinical medicine,
law, business, or another profession. As these people complete their edu-
cation and join the workforce, total production of scientists and engineers
will accelerate. The shortage will diminish.
To the extent that production is "low" in any sense other than this
fifth sense, production will tend to stay low. For example, the fact that
competing countries are manufacturing more electronic components
while America produces less (concept #2) may constitute a "shortage" of
American-produced components. But there is nothing about this kind of
OCR for page 169
shortage that will induce American companies to reverse the move off-
shore.
Indeed, in whichever other respect there is a "shortage," policy ac-
tions to relieve it will be effective to the extent that they operate to in-
crease demand for the good or service (concept #5~. Policy can also induce
increased production by lowering the costs of production, regardless of
the manner of shortage that exists.
IS THERE A SHORTAGE OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS?
Diverse data from the National Science Foundation, the RAND
RaDiUS database, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta-
tistics, the National Research Council, and scientific associations can
characterize the production of S&E Ph.D.'s, indicate the respects in
which such production may be low, and point to causes of observed
patterns. Accordingly, we briefly focus such data on the five different
concepts of "shortage," indicating the particular respects in which the
production of S&E Ph.D.'s indeed appears to be low. This overview
points to the fifth concept, unsatisfied demand, as the key both to un-
derstanding and to correcting whatever shortages are thought to exist
according to the other concepts.
Unfortunately, the uneven detail, varying definitions, and inconsis-
tent time periods in the available data make possible only the teasing out
of "stylized facts" hypotheses awaiting empirical testing. That data more
recent than 1999 or 2000 are generally not yet published is especially un-
fortunate, as the S&E workforce situation has arguably changed signifi-
cantly since then. Hence, we conclude this analysis not with positions or
solutions, but more modestly, with four possible strategies for increasing
the production of S&E Ph.D.'s in whatever fields might be deemed low,
by whatever criteria.
To begin, consider whether the United States is experiencing a short-
age of S&E Ph.D.'s in either of the first two senses decreased production
or gains by competitors. Figure 1 shows that the number of American
Ph.D.'s awarded in each major area of science and engineering has been
increasing, beginning in the 1980s. These gains were interrupted in the
late l990s, an interruption that has apparently continued in some fields,
although confirming data are not yet published. Hence, at least until very
recently, American Ph.D. production has not been declining in the broad
S&E fields. There has been little or no shortage of the first type.
What about the second concept of shortage competitors gaining
ground? Figure 2 shows that S&E doctorate production turned up in many
other countries during the 1980s as in the U.S., but the numerical increase
has been larger here than in any of these "competitor" countries.
OCR for page 170
170
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PAN-~CANIZAHONAr SUMMIT
_ I_
t- ::::::
I ~ Social and Behavioral Sciences -X- Mathematics l
~~ ~ Physical end Geosciences ~ Engineering
_ _ Biological and Agricultural Sciences - ~ Computer Sciences
OF ~--X--~- ~__~__3d,~ ~~ ~-~~ y ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~X
in-- - ---- · ~ · ~ · · A--- 1 1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
FIGURE 1 S&E Ph.D. Degrees Awarded by Broad Field, 1975-1999. Source: Science
and Engineering Doctorate Awards (20024. The American Bar Association (2002~.
From two other angles, however, the situation vis-a-vis our "com-
petitors" does not appear so sanguine. Figure 3 reports the ratio of S&E
first degree holders to the total population of 24-year-olds in the so-called
G7 countries in 1975 and 1999. Think of the height of each column as rep-
resenting the probability that a representative young person will com-
plete an S&E degree. That probability for American youth grew from .04
in 1975 to .06 in 1999, a notable increase corresponding to the numerical
growth evident in the first two figures. In 1975, this probability in America
was exceeded only in Japan, among countries shown. After 1975, how-
ever, the picture is radically different. Each of the other countries has ex-
perienced a much larger increase, measured in either absolute or percent-
30,000
25,000
20,000
~ 5,000
- ~ 0,000
5,000
o
~ X ~ ~ _ ~
| ~ France -X- United States . , Japan |
_ ~ Germany ~ China ~ S. Korea
~ United Kingdom ~ India Taiwan
a* -eke >~ an__ ){,__-X~ { __~~ ~
_
= ~ ~ ~~ I,. ~ 'by
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
~,_, - .
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_/
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S. ~ By: ~ ' '~'~~~ -I'
1 ~ ' 1 ' '' '; 1 ' ''1 '> ' ' ''1'' '
'75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '80 '80 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99
FIGURE 2 S&E doctorates awarded in nine countries, varying years 1975-1999.
Source: Science and Engineering Indicators (2002J.
OCR for page 171
-
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u]
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.—
to
~ 8
2
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to %P
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fl)
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6
4
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1 1~1 1975 ·1999 1
.
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1 _
1
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United States United Kingdom France Japan Canada Germany Italy
FIGURE 3 Ratio of natural science and engineering first university degrees
awarded to 24-year-old population, by G7 country, 1975 and 1990. Source: Science
and Engineering Indicators (20024.
age terms.1 Although their young-adult populations are growing less rap-
idly than ours (not shown), the proportion of their young people opting
for university degrees in science and engineering is rising faster.
Figure 4 examines from another angle the question of whether our
competitors are gaining. Here, doctorate recipients from American insti-
tutions are divided into U.S. citizens and non-citizens.2 The latter's share
has grown rapidly indeed, from 23 percent of the total in 1980 to 42 per-
cent in 1994. Even with the subsequent decline in noncitizen degree
awards,3 this longer-term rise, combined with the increasing propensity
of students abroad to enter S&E fields (Figure 3), buttresses the case that
the American S&E workforce is low in the sense that our competitors are
gaining (concept #2 above).4
Consideration of the third and fourth concepts of "shortage" is best
deferred until we have taken up the fifth and last concept: Is growth of the
S&E workforce insufficient to satisfy market demand? If such growth is
insufficient; that is, if the numbers of American scientists and engineers
are too small to fill the new jobs offered by academic, industrial, and gov-
ernment employers, then employers will be bidding to fill their empty
positions. Job openings, lab facilities, salaries, advancement opportuni-
1Other countries can be seen in the source table to have experienced even larger increases,
notably Mexico and Spain.
2The underlying data for this figure include M.D.'s. Permanent residents are counted with
noncitizens.
3Since September 2001 the number of foreign students enrolled in graduate S&E programs
in the U.S. has apparently decreased even more markedly.
4Of course, many foreign recipients of U.S. degrees choose to remain and work here.
OCR for page 172
172
1 8,OOO
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2
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ED
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PAN-~CANIZAHONAr SUMMIT
-
/
~ | ~ U.S. Citizens Non-Citizens |
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
FIGURE 4 S&E and Health Doctorates Earned by U.S. Citizens and Noncitizens,
1980-2000. Source: Science and Engineering Indicators (2002J and Science and Engi-
neering Doctorate Awards 2000.
ties, and other components of career satisfaction will be on the rise, while
unemployment and underemployment will be falling.
Alternatively, if the rewards to other careers perhaps clinical medi-
cine, law or business are higher and are growing relatively to S&E,
and if it is instead the costs of training for a job that are growing for S&E,
then there is no shortage of scientists and engineers in this important
fifth sense. Indeed, in this latter case, the "shortages" that others discern
may well look more like discouraging surpluses to young people con-
sidering career choice. In the sense that matters for spurring production,
they indeed are.
Is there in fact unsatisfied demand for scientists and engineers in the
American job market? Available data are sketchy but they are consistent.
We consider two indicators of S&E career opportunities: earnings and
unemployment. Where data allow, we compare these opportunities and
costs to those facing budding holders of professional degrees M.D., D.D.,
D.V.M., T.D., and M.B.A. These comparisons are instructive to the extent
that bright ambitious young people consider other challenging alterna-
tives while deciding whether to become scientists or engineers.
Figure 5 compares a measure of annualized earnings for Ph.D.'s (all
Ph.D.'s are included in this measure, not just S&E)6 with earnings of pro-
5Prevalence of postdoctoral appointments, particularly successive appointments, might
be considered an indicator of underemployment.
6These highly aggregated data cannot reveal salary trends for just the S&E workforce,
much less for particular disciplines and subdisciplines that may have experienced unusual
salary growth or decline. For comparison purposes, about 60 percent of Ph.D. degree hold-
ers were in S&E fields in the period covered by these data.
OCR for page 173
20O,OOO
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-
-
| ~ Professional ~ Doctoral |
25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64
Age Groups
FIGURE 5 Synthetic estimates of work life earnings for advanced degree holders
by age, 1997-1999 period. Source: Census The Big Payoff.
fessional degree holders (those listed just above).7 Professional degree
holders earn more at nearly every age and considerably more over an
entire career, as measured by the summed difference between the lines.
~ ~ . . .
. .- IS IS no surprise.
Our purposes here would be better served by this same earnings mea-
sure calculated separately for the S&E workforce and repeated for a de-
cade or so earlier. This comparison would reveal whether the professional
degree premium is falling; that is, whether the relative attractiveness of
an S&E career is rising, indicating a shortage in that crucial fifth sense.
Alas, this measure is not yet available separately for S&E or for earlier
periods. Still, the data at hand give no indication of the kind of earnings
premiums for scientists and engineers that would signal the existence of a
shortage.
Unemployment rates are another indicator of market conditions.
Rates that are falling or lower than in alternative occupations also suggest
shortages in the fifth sense unsatisfied demand. Unemployment rates
are available and plotted in Figure 6 for chemists, recent mathematics
7Called by the Census Bureau "synthetic estimate of work life earnings," this measure
calculates for the 1997-99 period the annual earnings of persons in each indicated age range.
A young person today might interpret the lines connecting these age points as the expected
career profile of annual earnings on into her future. That interpretation requires several
strong assumptions. An alternative measure of the career earnings profile would report an-
nual earnings of the same group of people as they age over the years. As those data must
necessarily refer entirely to the past, even to the deep past when the group of people was
young, they also are a flawed proxy for looking at the future. However, lacking real data
about the future, people and organizations use information about the past and present to
make decisions, including career decisions.
OCR for page 174
174
12
10
E
6
PAN-~CANIZAHONAr SUMMIT
Recent Math Doctorates
Overall U.S.
Recent Biomedical Doctorates ~
Chemists / \
4
2
o
1 970 1 975 1 980 1 985 1 990
1 995 2000 2005
FIGURE 6 Unemployment rates of the United States and selected S&E fields.
Sources: ASM-IMS IAAA Annual Survey 2001. ACS Annual Salary Survey. Chemi-
cal ~ Engineering News 77: 28-39. NRC Trends in the Early Careers of Life Scientists.
Ph.D.'s, and recent biomedical Ph.D.'s and M.D.'s.8 Although not fully
comparable in population or time period, these three rates, when com-
pared to the overall U.S. unemployment rate, suggest a general increase
or leveling in the l990s, while the general unemployment rate was falling
substantially. Rising unemployment in one sector, while the overall
economy is doing well, is a strong indicator of developing surpluses of
workers, not shortages.
Hence, neither earnings patterns nor unemployment patterns indi-
cate an S&E shortage in the data we are able to find. Altogether, these
data in Figures 5 and 6 do not portray the kind of vigorous employment
and earnings prospects that can be expected to draw increasing numbers
of bright and informed young people into science.
We return now to the third concept of shortage: Is production lower
than the people doing the "producing" in this case the young people
making career choices would like? More young people today may argu-
ably enjoy doing science or engineering than plan actually to prepare for
such careers. Instead they may choose a professional degree but only re-
luctantly. In a market economy, even one characterized by rigidities, regu-
lations, and unequal opportunity, qualified people tend toward career
paths whose rewards and satisfactions are becoming more attractive and/
or whose preparatory costs are becoming less onerous.
The American Mathematical Society and American Chemical Association publish more
extensive data (including unemployment rates) on their members than are available for most
other S&E communities.
OCR for page 175
8.5
8
7.5
a) 7
o 6.5
6
5.5
5
.~
_— _
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
FIGURE 7 Average registered time to Ph.D. in the biomedical life sciences
(postbaccalaureate study). Note: Includes all graduate education. Source: Trends in
the Early Careers of Life Scientists (1998~.
We have seen that broad fields of science and engineering do not ap-
pear particularly attractive from the earnings and unemployment perspec-
tive. What about the cost side? Figure 7 points to a sobering part of the
answer. Average time from bachelor's degree to Ph.D. in the life sciences
has increased by two full years since 1970. Professional association staff in
several other sciences informally confirm similar increases. If, as is likely,
the variance in time-to-degree has increased along with the mean, then
prospective life scientists face not only more years out of the labor market,
but also more uncertainty about the number of years. Complaints about
perceived subjectivity and arbitrariness of the postgraduate process its
length and the prospects of eventual completion are also not infrequent.
All this might not matter so much if the brightest young people lacked
alternative training and career paths. But consider the paths to the M.D.,
D.D., D.V.M., T.D., and M.B.A. The number of years to degree has stayed
absolutely constant in these programs for decades,9 and the prospects for
successful completion, once begun, remain high. Have the amount and
complexity of material to be mastered expanded so much more in biology
or mathematics than in medicine, the law, or finance? This would seem
hard to argue. Then why does it take longer and longer to be ready to
begin one's career in most of the sciences, but not in the professions?
Finally, what about the fourth concept of shortage, unmet national
needs? Will particular subfields of science or engineering soon become
critical, perhaps for national security, for health care, for feeding the
world, or for national competitiveness? Perhaps some fields are already
9Flexible training alternatives that can extend time to degree have arisen in each of these
fields, but these are optional, serving to increase the attractiveness.
OCR for page 176
i76
PAN-~CANIZAHONAL SUMMIT
critical but somehow without the corresponding inducements that attract
qualified young people. Where would these inducements come from?
GENERAL STRATEGIES FOR INCREASING THE SCIENCE AND
ENGINEERING WORKFORCE
We have seen that the production of American scientists and engi-
neers is not low in the sense that it has fallen over some years from previ-
ous heights, nor in the sense that employers are driving S&E earnings up
and unemployment rates down in a scramble to hire more. However, in
another sense of shortage that of competitive foreign gains American
production does appear low.
Whether from unmet national needs, foreign competition, or any other
source, a perceived shortage of U.S. S&E talent must be expressed in terms
that motivate young people, or the shortage will persist. If such perceived
shortages do emerge, the story loosely told by these data points toward
four general strategies to relieve them. Two of these strategies involve
government actions to increase the returns and rewards to be expected
from a career in science. The other two strategies somewhat less ame-
nable to direct government policy would reduce the costs of preparing
for such a career. A fifth strategy points to data improvements.
1. Steadily and predictably increase federal research obligations for the S&E
fields of concern. This strategy, though not easy, is straightforward. There
is nothing so directly under control of the federal government as its bud-
get, and probably little that has so direct an effect on the attractiveness of
an S&E career. Federal grants, contracts, and other S&E expenditures are
a major determinant of fellowship support, job opportunities, lab facili-
ties, and salary growth. Figure 8 shows that federal obligations for total
research, in constant dollars, have increased more than fivefold since 1970
in some fields, but hardly at all in others. The substantial growth in fed-
eral support for the biological sciences seen in Figure 8 is likely a major
reason for the corresponding growth in biological science Ph.D.'s seen in
Figure 1. If national needs now (also) point in other directions, substantial
and predictable federal budget enhancements in those directions can be
expected to call forth the same kind of response on the part of young
people (or midcareer people) contemplating their careers.
However, growth in Ph.D. production without corresponding growth
in available jobs for Ph.D.'s may cause more harm than good. There is evi-
dence that this has occurred in the past. Anecdotal evidence suggests recent
widespread underemployment of some biology specialties, indicating pos-
sible "overshooting" too many new Ph.D.'s to satisfy the demand.
Goldman and Massy (2001), in particular, argue that funding increases natu-
OCR for page 177
1 2,OOO
1 O,OOO
8,OOO
6,OOO
4,000
2,OOO
o
Biological Sciences ~ Computer Sciences
Chemistry ->I- Engineering, Total
Mathematics Social Sciences,Total
t
,*—,,, Ad, ~~ ~~ ~-w
..... - - - -. . . . . . . , . . I. . . . :: . . . . .-.-.-. . . . . . .. ~ ~
~— - ·' —a""' - ' ' ' '''' ~ !!! ~ · · · · · · , ~ ~—~.........................
1 1 1 1 1 1 _~ 1 1
'70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
FIGURE 8 Federal obligations for total research, by field of science & engineer-
ing, FY 1970-2002. Source: NSF Federal Funds for Research and Development Fis-
cal Years 1951-2001.
rally lead to greater increases in Ph.D. production than in Ph.D. employ-
ment, without specific policy interventions. Romer (2000) calls for a system
of portable national fellowships as a means of increasing funding for S&E,
while allowing market forces a role in matching supply and demand.
2. Increase incentives for private investment and hiring in the priorityfields
of science and engineering. This strategy, while less straightforward, falls
also in the federal bailiwick. Subsidies, patent and intellectual property
protection, and regulatory changes can be effective tools for encourag-
ing private investment and jobs in industries that employ particular
types of scientists and engineers. Often, jobs fallout is a byproduct of
policy intentions toward some other goal, but job growth in particular
professions can just as well be the explicit policy target. In either case,
young people and others in midcareer can be expected to respond. A1-
though not primarily driven by federal policy, the boom in computer
science and engineering degrees during the 1990s was fueled by rapidly
increasing private sector demand.
3. Adopt the "professional school model" for S&E Ph.D. programs. This
strategy aims not at increasing later career rewards but at reducing the
early costs and uncertainties of training for an S&E career. The acceptance
of this strategy in academe, even any resolve toward attempting it, seems
remote. Still, more young people would surely be lured away from pro-
fessional schools to S&E doctoral programs, if the years to S&E Ph.D.
completion were rolled back, say, to 1970 levels, if this term were predict-
able and standard, and if the subjective and arbitrary aspects of the Ph.D.
path were curtailed.
4. Introduce two new professional doctoral degree programs for science and
engineering, built on the M.D. model. This fourth strategy would also reduce
OCR for page 178
i78
PAN-~CANIZAHONAL SUMMIT
training costs and uncertainties, but specifically for those whose career
goals focus on professional practice rather than cutting-edge research.
Graduates would have a firm grounding in a broad set of skills, under-
stand how their skills fit in with other skill sets, and be able to keep up
with the cutting edge. These new programs would feature a structured
curriculum with well-defined completion criteria and a definite term, per-
haps of four years. Their faculty would be practitioners with other sources
of income, as in medical schools. The rapid growth of industrial parks,
corporate-like technical centers, and corporate partnerships would facili-
tate this arrangement. As with existing professional degree programs, stu-
dents would not normally rely on grants and fellowships, but would in-
stead look to substantially higher lifetime earnings to pay their own way.
The attractiveness of this strategy depends partly on whether the current
employment of SHE Ph.D.'s could be partly satisfied instead by holders of
these new professional doctoral degrees.
5. Expand content and improve timeliness of SHE workforce data. To know
whether shortages of scientists and engineers are in fact developing and
whether strategies to encourage their production are succeeding, specific
additional data should be collected. In addition, a subset of indicators
could be developed to provide early warning, some two years or more
before full data become available.
Logic as well as repeated experience counsels caution in pursuing
these strategies, particularly the first two. Young people's career decisions
do not shift instantaneously when the relative attractiveness of their vari-
ous choices begins to change. Having begun to shift, their choices do not
then emerge in the employment market for as long as their graduate train-
ing takes and undergraduate training, too, for the many who choose
when they are younger. Government actions to raise opportunities and
earnings in one field must be sustained for many years or they do more
damage than good. To see this, consider that such a policy must be sus-
tained for substantially longer than the lag between the policy's initiation
and the labor market entry of the last new crop of graduate scientists and
engineers. In this last crop are the first high school students who jumped
(and were encouraged to jump) in the newly favored direction. Hence, 8
to 10 years is the absolute minimum period of sustained government in-
vestment before those young people who responded can begin to reap the
reward, much less begin to repay their investment. Policy that cannot be
sustained for more than a decade will therefore be destabilizing and harm-
ful to bright young people's careers and lives, to the extent that they and
their advisers trusted the policy.
These important caveats notwithstanding, sustained strategic move-
ment in any of these first four directions could reduce the costs and uncer-
OCR for page 179
tainties of postgraduate SHE training and increase the job opportunities,
earnings and satisfaction of graduates, whether in priority fields of sci-
ence and engineering or across the spectrum. In response, the young
people who are bright enough to drive 21st century American science and
engineering (but also bright enough to work its clinics, courts, and busi-
nesses) would increasingly do so.
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Synthetic Estimates of Work-Life Earnings". U.S. Census Bureau.
Federal Funds for Research and Development: Fiscal Years 2000, 2001, and 2002. National Science
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
unemployment rates
