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DPanic Social Nel`-: cling anil Anal WORKSHOP SUMMARY AND PAPERS Ronald Breiger, Kathleen Car~ey, and Phi~ippa Pattison O- Ink in Committee on Human Factors Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This work relates to Department of Navy grant N00014-02-1-0997 issued by the Office of Naval Research to the National Academy of Sciences. The United States Government has a royalty-free license throughout the world in all copyrightable material contained in the publications. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research. International Standard Book Number 0-309-08952-2 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-51916-0 (PDF) Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 2003107509 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washing- ton, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2003~. Dynamic Social Network Modeling and Analysis: Workshop Summary and Papers, Ronald Breiger, Kathleen Carley, and Philippa Pattison. Committee on Human Factors. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Stienre, Engineering, aniMeditine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad commu- nity of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Acad- emies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www. nationa l-academies.org

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PLANNING SUBCOMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON DYNAMIC SOCIAL NETWORK MODELING AND ANALYSIS DANIEL R. ILGEN (Chair), Department of Psychology and Department of Management, Michigan State University, East Lansing JOHN M. CARROLL, Center for Human-Computer Interaction, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg MARTHA GRABOWSKI, Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; and Information Systems Programs, LeMoyne College ANNE S. MAYOR, Senior Staff Officer SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Research Associate v

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COMMITTEE ON HUMAN FACTORS RAJA PARASURAMAN (Chair), Department of Psychology, Catholic University JOHN M. CARROLL, Center for Human-Computer Interaction, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg ROBYN DAWES, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University COLIN G. DRURY, Department of Industrial Engineering, State University of New York, Buffalo DONALD FISHER, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst MARTHA GRABOWSKI, Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; and Information Systems Programs, LeMoyne College PETER A. HANCOCK, Department of Psychology, University of Central Florida, Orlando DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology and Department of Management, Michigan State University, East Lansing RICHARD J. JAGACINSKI, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus BONNIE E. JOHN, Human-Computer Interaction Institute, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University KURT KRAIGER, Department of Psychology, University of Tulsa, Oklahoma WILLIAM S. MARRAS, Institute for Ergonomics and Department of Industrial, Welding, and Systems Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus RICHARD W. PEW, BEN Technologies, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT G. RADWIN, Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison KARLENE ROBERTS, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley KIM J. VICENTE, Cognitive Engineering Laboratory and Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto GREG L. ZACHARIAS, Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, Massachusetts ANNE S. MAYOR, Director SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Research Associate Al i

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Preface The Committee on Human Factors was established in 1980 by the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Over the years, the committee has pursued a wide range of topics dealing with theoretical and methodological issues and with the application of principles of human behavior and performance to the design of systems. Recent interests have included modeling individual and organizational behavior, networks and remote collaboration, and contributions of the behavioral and organizational sciences to ensuring national security. Within this context, the Committee on Human Factors was asked by the Office of Naval Research to hold a workshop on social network modeling and analysis and to examine the potential of research in this area for application to national security issues. In response, a subgroup of the committee was appointed by the National Research Council to plan and organize the workshop. Key participants were identified and asked to write papers and make presentations. Many of the papers focused on current developments in the science of social network modeling and several discussed various applications, including national security. Part I of this document is a summary of the major themes and the research issues and prospects that emerged from the presentations and discussions. Part II contains the papers as submitted. I would like to thank Rebecca Goolsby from the Office of Naval Research for supporting this effort and for her interest, insights, and helpful suggestions. I would also like to extend our appreciation to National Research Council staff Anne Mavor and Susan McCutchen for their assistance in planning and organizing the workshop. Part I, the workshop summary, has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of Part I of this report: Karl Chopra, Aptima, Inc., Washington, DC; Patrick Doreian, Department of Sociology, University of Pittsburgh; and Charles M. Macal, Center for Complex Adaptive Systems Simulation, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the document nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Paul Holland, Statistical Theory and Practice, Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and the institution. Daniel Ilgen, Chair Planning Subcommittee . . via

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Contents PART I: WORKSHOP SUMMARY Introduction, 3 Workshop Sessions and Themes, 3 Research Issues and Prospects, 11 Opening Address PART II: WORKSHOP PAPERS Emergent Themes in Social Network Analysis: Results, Challenges, Opportunities 19 Ronald L. Breiger Session I: Social Network Theory Perspectives Finding Social Groups: A Meta-Analysis of the Southern Women Data Linton C. Freeman Autonomy vs. Equivalence Within Market Network Structure? Harrison C. White Social Influence Network Theory: Toward a Science of Strategic Modification of Interpersonal Influence Systems Noah E. Friedkin Information and Innovation in a Networked World David Lazer Six 15 39 78 89 101

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x Session II: Dynamic Social Networks Informal Social Roles and the Evolution and Stability of Social Networks Jeffrey C. Johnson, Lawrence A. Palinkas, and James S. Boster Dynamic Network Analysis Kathleen M. Carley Accounting for Degree Distributions in Empirical Analysis of Network Dynamics Tom A.B. Snijders Polarization in Dynamic Networks: A Hopfield Model of Emergent Structure Michael W. Macy, James A. Kitts, Andreas Flache, and Steve Benard Local Rules and Global Properties: Modeling the Emergence of Network Structure Martina Morris Social Networks: From Sexual Networks to Threatened Networks. H. Eugene Stanley and Shlomo Havlin Session III: Metrics and Models Sensitivity Analysis of Social Network Data and Methods: Some Preliminary Results Stanley Wasserman and Douglas Steinley Spectral Methods for Analyzing and Visualizing Networks: An Introduction Andrew J. Seary and William D. Richards Statistical Models for Social Networks: Inference and Degeneracy Mark S. Handcock The Key Player Problem Stephen P. Borgatti Balancing Efficiency and Vulnerability in Social Networks Elisa Jayne Bienenstock and Phillip Bonacich Data Mining on Large Graphs Christopher R. Palmer, Phillip B. Gibbons, and Christos Faloutsos Session IV: Networked Worlds Data Mining in Social Networks David Jensen and Jennifer Neville Random Effects Models for Network Data Peter D. Hoff Predictability of Large-Scale Spatially Embedded Networks Carter T. Butts CONTENTS 121 133 146 162 174 187 197 209 229 241 253 265 289 303 313

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CONTENTS Using Multi-Theoretical Multi-Level (MTML) Models to Study Adversarial Networks Noshir S. Contractor and Peter R. Monge Identifying International Networks: Latent Spaces and Imputation Michael D. Ward, Peter D. Hold, and Corey Lowell Lofdahl Summary: Themes, Issues, and Applications Linking Capabilities to Needs Kathleen M. Carley A Workshop Agenda B Biographical Sketches x 324 345 363 APPENDIXES 373 376

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