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A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II (2004)

Chapter: 3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan

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Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 69
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 70
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 71
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 72
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 73
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 74
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 75
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 76
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 77
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 78
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 79
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 80
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 81
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 82
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 83
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 84
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 85
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 86
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 87
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 88
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 89
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 90
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 91
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 92
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 93
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 94
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 95
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 96
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 97
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 98
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 99
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 100
Suggested Citation:"3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan." National Research Council. 2004. A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10772.
×
Page 101

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Chapter 3 Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan The Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan (Action Plan) identifies a lengthy and substantive list of research and technical support projects that, if completed, would support an(l advance water-security-related prevention, mitigation, response, and recovery activities. The subsequent draft Water Security Research and Technical Support Implementation Plan (Implementation Plan) (EPA, 2003b) provides additional information on near-term projects related to drinking water and the Action Plan's implementation. Consistent with a recommendation in the panel's first report (see Part I), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently working in cooperation with the Water Environment Research Foundation (WERE) and other stakeholders to more carefully consider wastewater security needs, holding a stakeholder meeting in August 2003. Because this activity is anticipated to lead to many revisions in the wastewater section of the Action Plan, this report focuses primarily on the projects to support drinking-water security needs, with some evaluation of wastewater projects currently underway and suggestions on an overall strategy for addressing wastewater . . . priorities. In the panel's first report (see Part I) the general drinking water and wastewater security needs were evaluated. This chapter presents an evaluation of the research and technical support projects identified in the Action Plan to support those water security needs. The water security needs and supporting projects from the Action Plan are included, for reference, in boxes throughout the chapter (Boxes 3-1 to 3-84. Although the needs (in bold) were not prioritized in the Action Plan and were merely sequenced in a logical order, the projects listed under each water security need were arranged in priority order. Despite the many revisions and several additional needs suggested by the pane} in its first report, for simplicity and ease of comparison with the first report, this chapter is organized according to the numbering scheme originally presented in the Action Plan. Changes suggested in Part I are noted where relevant. As stated in Chapter 2, the basic organizing principles of the EPA water security research and technical support agenda should emphasize a continuing increase in the effectiveness and efficiency of our response ant! recovery capacity while identifying cost- 67

68 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan effective countermeasures based on an understanding of the nature and likelihood of potential threats. The projects presented in the Action Plan are reviewed in that context within this chapter. The Action Plan presents a total of 123 projects, and, except where noted in the discussions below, the projects are appropriate for the high intensity, short time-frame effort envisioned by the EPA. Consistent with the recommendations in Chapter 2, many of the projects emphasize technical support and focus on short-term, data mining efforts. To streamline this review, the panel focused its comments on specific aspects of project content, scope, prioritization, timing, and sequencing for certain projects only. Projects that were considered appropriate are not discussed at length; thus, the amount of discussion on individual projects should not be viewed as a reflection of the panel's priorities. DRINKING WATER The research and technical support projects for preventing, preparing for, and responding to physical, cyber, and contaminant attacks on drinking water supply systems are categorized in the Action Plan in six major sections: (1) protecting physical and cyber infrastructure, (2) identifying drinking water contaminants, (3) improving analytical methodologies and monitoring systems for drinking water, (4) containing, treating, decontaminating, and disposing of contaminated water and materials, (5) planning for contingencies and addressing infrastructure interdependencies, anti (6) targeting impacts on human health and informing the public about risks. The projects are discussed in detail below, and a chart highlighting suggested revisions to the time lines (including additional recommended projects) is provided in Appendix A. Protecting Physical and Cyber Infrastructure (Action Plan Section 3.1) The projects described within this need involve identifying physical threats to water systems, understanding the consequences of physical attacks on those systems, and identifying countermeasures to such attacks. These are core activities that establish the character and level of threat, and collect and disseminate information for cognizant officials at water utilities. Project Evaluation The suite of projects described appears to adequately address the needs identified in the original Action Plan (see Box 3-1), although some suggestions are provided to improve the projects. In addition to these, a new 'need' was suggested in the panel's first report (see Part I) that involved assessing costs and benefits of various countermeasures, including immediate ancillary benefits, and communicating the value of water and increased water securities to the public. Several projects should be developed to address this new need, for which suggestions are outlined below. 3.1.a Identification and Prioritization of Physical Threats. The projects concerning an updated identification and prioritization of threats are clearly important, and the Action Plan recognizes this in the timing of these projects. The project to identify likely physical and cyber threat scenarios (project 3.1.a.1) based on input from threat analysts and the intelligence community is already underway. This project should also recognize dissemination of malicious disinformation as a potential vulnerability, as recommended in the panel's first report (see Part I). The project to examine lessons

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 69 learned by utilities in assessing their vulnerabilities (project 3.1.a.2) is also already underway through the American Water Works Association Research Foundation (AwwaRF), even though its outcomes may be of greater value farther in the future than at present. Developing lessons learned takes time; outcomes have to be evaluated before they become lessons, and organizations may be reluctant to share negative outcomes. The project should also include lessons learned from other infrastructure sectors (e.g., electric power utilities, the chemical industry). Two projects are proposed to evaluate and refine the vulnerability assessment (VA) methodologies for drinking water utilities (projects 3.1.a.3 and 3.1.a.4~. The evaluation of the basic VA methodology (e.g., Risk Assessment Methodology for Water or RAM- W) is generic to all utility applications and clearly valuable. Nevertheless, these projects appear of lower importance than projects 3.1.a.1 or 3.1.a.2 because projects 3.1.a.3 and 3.1.a.4 focus primarily on refining existing methodologies rather than on the overall need of identifying physical anti cyber threats. If financial resources are limited, they could be postponed. Refinement of the vulnerability assessment process should already be part of a good comprehensive planning process. In any event, it would make sense to perform the 3.1.a.4 project toward the end of the Action Plan life span so that information resulting from other projects can be incorporated into this analysis. Project 3.1.a.4 may not need to start as early as is currently scheduled, and it may require less time than the proposed 16-month time line. _ . . _ . 3.1.b Understanding and Documentation of the Consequences of Physical or Cyber Attacks. The emphasis under this need! for "thorough understanding and documentation of consequences of physical or cyber attacks" seems to be on cascading consequences in infrastructure networks, not on traditional distribution system models, although the nature of the proposed models was not described in the draft Implementation Plan. While such cascading effects are critical to network performance, it must be remembered that utilities deal with outages and natural hazards in the normal course of their business, including cascading effects. Operators understand the behavior of their own distribution networks, and most large utilities already use simulation models of their distribution networks. As a result, project 3.1.b.1 should not be given as high a priority as the 3. Ma projects. Overall, the projects should be refined so that their contributions to current understanding are clearer, and these projects should take advantage of consequence assessments prepared for other infrastructure sectors. 3.1.c Countermeasures to Prevent or Mitigate the Effects of Physical and Cyber Attacks. The 3. l.c projects concerning "a suite of countermeasures," which largely have to do with technical information collection and dissemination, are all important ant! reasonable to meet the identified need and should proceed as described. All water utilities will benefit from this information, but small and midsized utilities will particularly appreciate the findings from these projects, especially if the projects lead to guidelines for prevention and mitigation. The project to prepare voluntary design standards (~3.1.c.1) refers to pulling together recommendations for construction, hardening, and other aspects of utility security operations, so that facility designs can benefit from security experiences of the past. This project should emphasize the development of a "best practices" manual. Three years appears to be too long for the effort described. The project to develop standards for minimum security protection of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems (~3.1.c.2) should be informed by parallel

70 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan work in other industries such as chemicals and energy and by federal initiatives such as the National Institute for Standards and Technology s (NIST) Common Criteria, which includes a SCADA system security standard. Additional Research and Technical Support Needs In the pane] s first report (see Part I), a fourth need was added to section 3.1, for which appropriate projects should be developed. This fourth need statement reads: Assessment of costs and benefits (direct and inclirect) associated with various countermeasures; and development of a program to assist implementing · . - , · . · - . . - . - . - ~ · · . - · .. .. . . - organlzatlons (lncludlng water utllltles) in communicating with the pUDllC, customers, rate regulators, and local elected and appointed officials regarding the value of water, increased water systems security, and increased rate structures to create the necessary financial resources to implement such countermeasures. Costs and benefits can only be meaningfully evaluated in the context of specific threat scenarios; thus, this project will need to be closely integrated with projects 3.1.a.1 and 3.2.a.2. Cost and benefit information will help utility managers, customers, and elected and appointed officials assess the value of specific countermeasures (e.g., hardening facilities or contaminant detection technologies) and recognize the need to finance appropriate security measures, including effective response and recovery programs. Financing will be crucial if actions are to be implemented by water utilities to improve their systems security. Water utility resources are aIreacly under severe financial restraint, particularly small systems, which have limited financial resources. Typical projects responsive to this fourth need are: Assessment of costs and benefits associated with various security countermeasures, including dual-use benefits. This should include the EPA taking a public position on the value of improved water system security. 2. Research on various rate structures that utilities are using or might be able to use, to finance the costs associated with improved water system security. 3. Development of a manual or other communication vehicle that water utilities can use to assist in increasing the awareness of the public, customers, rate regulators, ant! elected and appointed officials regarding the value of water, increased water security, and the increased rate structure necessary to create the financial resources for implementing improved water security measures. These projects should be given high priority and initiated soon, since it will take time to put in place rate structures that will generate required financial resources. Projects #2 and #3 should be initiated immediately, and project #1 should be conducted concurrently with projects 3. l.c. 1-4, which will identify countermeasures for drinking-water protection. Summary The projects identified to support the protection of physical and cyber infrastructure are appropriate to address the needs identified in the Action Plan, but some revisions are suggested. Overall, the projects identified to support consequence analysis (3.1.b) need additional refinement to clarify their contribution to the current state of knowledge and project 3. l.b. 1 should follow the higher priority projects such as 3. l.a. Refinement of the vulnerability assessment methodologies (~3.1.a.4) should be compressed and postponed until the end of the Action Plan life span so that information resulting from other projects can be incorporated in this analysis. Additional projects were proposed in support of a

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 71 fourth need to assess the costs and benefits of countermeasures. 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72 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan Contaminant Identification (Section 3.2) As the scope of available pathogens and hazardous chemicals expands, so should our assessment of the threats and consequences they pose to water security. Knowledge of critical contaminant properties, such as toxicity, environmental fate, and methods for mitigation, will be needed to respond effectively to attacks on the country's water supplies. The projects identified in the Action Plan are intended to address this need. Project Evaluation Overall, the projects that are proposed to identify the contaminants of concern and the relevant threat scenarios (see Box 3-2) are appropriate to meet the needs outlined in the Action Plan. The concerns discussed below relate to the project approach and the time and resources available to complete some of the projects. Suggestions are offered to streamline certain projects. 3.2.a Development of a List of Contaminants and Threat Scenarios. The project to develop and prioritize contaminant threat scenarios (3.2.a.2) will contribute valuable information to several other projects in the Action Plan (e.g., developing sampling strategies, 3.3.c; evaluating treatment processes, 3.4.c) and therefore merits early scheduling. In developing the list of threat scenarios, it is recommended that, where possible, the threat scenarios be designed to handle categories of contaminants, rather than designed for individual contaminants. This should streamline development of the list and should simplify the development of responses to the threat scenarios. The development of the list should take into consideration the point of entry to the system (e.g., reservoir, treatment plant, distribution system, or welIhead) as well as the amount of material that would be needed for the different types of contaminants to pose a threat. The list of priority contaminants that may pose a threat to water utilities (project 3.2.a.1) should be linked to a well-defined set of relevant criteria (e.g., treatability, solubility, human toxicity), which would be stored in the database mentioned below (need 3.2.b). The development of this set of criteria is not a trivial effort. These data could be used to group or prioritize the individual contaminants as users of the list deem appropriate, although this prioritization process will be complex (see Part I for further discussion of prioritization). Developing this set of criteria and establishing an initial prioritization scheme based on these criteria will be essential components of project 3.2.a.1. The project related to developing an improved understanding of the role of biologically produced toxins as drinking water contaminants (project 3.2.a.3) is deserving of a substantial effort because this is an area in which a great deal is unknown. 3.2.b Development of a Database on the Critical Contaminants. In developing the contaminant database (project 3.2.b.1), the EPA should initially focus on the minimum amount of information that would be needed to guide response activities. Essential information necessary for determining an appropriate response may vary according to the contaminant or contaminant group (e.g., treatability via chlorination is important information to have for types of microorganisms). Grouping the contaminants by type, where feasible, is suggested (1) to simplify the database, (2) to reduce the number of data gaps to be filled, and (3) to provide a means for including data on a larger number of relevant contaminants. Nevertheless, the benefits of grouping the contaminants may ultimately depend on the number of contaminants to be included in the database, and grouping would lead to greater uncertainty about the characteristics of agents within the contaminant groups.

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 73 As the database is developed and additional contaminant properties are considered for inclusion in the database, it will be important to keep in mind how the end users of the information will ultimately use the data. Building a comprehensive contaminant database for the sake of completeness will not be a wise use of resources. For simplicity, this project should be merged with project 3.4.c.S, which develops a treatment technology database for contaminants in drinking water. Critical information for the database should be sought first from existing sources, including peer-reviewed and non-peer reviewed literature and even best professional judgment where no data exist. Useful resources may include recent publications from the U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine (CHPPM, 2003a,b). In designing research projects to fill the most important information gaps (project 3.2.b.3), efforts should be made to coordinate with on-going research projects, such as those being conducted for contaminants on the Candidate Contaminant List. The time frame (approximately 18 months) and resources identified for this project appear to be insufficient to achieve its stated goal. Millions of dollars have been spent in dozens of research laboratories on characterizing contaminants during the last several years; it is unrealistic to expect that all of the identified gaps can be filled in with the available resources within the specified time frame. The draft implementation plan recognizes that this effort will need to be directed toward the most critical information gaps and projects that will be most likely to yield results. The EPA will also need to coordinate their efforts with other agencies currently funding research on specific contaminants to address this research need. The lower prioritization of project 3.2.b.4, which calls for a survey of background concentrations of priority contaminants in source or treated waters, seems appropriate. Considering the limited time and resources, this "survey" is assumed to represent a literature search rather than the collection of new water quality data. Analysis of existing data is most likely to shed light on only the well-known environmental contaminants (e.g., pesticides, some pharmaceuticals). It is unlikely that a substantial number of priority contaminants will have been measured with the necessary frequency, sensitivity, and accuracy to permit a meaningful assessment of background levels. The EPA should not invest in more exhaustive data collection at this time because adequate characterization of background concentrations for a broad suite of contaminants would require enormous resources (INFORM, Inc., 1995~. With anticipated future advances in sampling devices and a better understanding of contaminant threat scenarios, a project to sample background concentrations of priority contaminants could be developed later. This would represent a long-term research goal that would need to be coordinated with related contaminant monitoring projects in sections 3.3 and 3.4. 3.2.c Development of a Surrogate/Simulant Database. The terminology used here merits additional explanation in the Action Plan, because the terms "simulant" and "surrogate" may have different meanings in various fields. "Simulant" is commonly used to describe non-pathogenic or non-toxic agents that can be used in experiments to study the behavior of similar agents (NRC, 2003b, Layne et al, 2001), and it is assumed that "surrogate" is used similarly here. Nevertheless, the term "surrogate" may add confusion, because the term is also used to describe alternate measures of risk or occurrence in actual samples in lieu of the target chemical or species (NRC, 1996~. The language used in the Action Plan ("a comprehensive database... on surrogates or simulates for priority contaminants" project 3.2.c.l) suggests an activity which is likely beyond the means of the program given its time frame and other priorities, and thus

74 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan would not be a wise use of resources. Simulants may have limited applicability because there can be significant inherent variability in the response of seemingly similar agents. However, some field research might benefit from the use of a comparable non-pathogenic organism to assess the possible response of a pathogenic organism (e.g., use of Bacillus cereals spores vs. those from Bacillus anthracis). One end product should be a set of guidelines or an operational handbook describing how simulants should be used, including selection of the simulant, handling, analysis and data interpretation. 3.2.d Means for Maintaining and Transmitting Information on the Above. The EPA has proposed a number of communication mechanisms for water security (EPA, 2003c), and work is ongoing to refine its information sharing strategy. The EPA should consider additional methods to improve the accessibility of its databases. For a large database, this may include developing several interface windows, which are appropriately designed for different types of end users. Large utilities may be able to dedicate staff to become trained in using the proposed databases, but it will not be feasible for many of the mid-sized and smaller utilities to do so. Therefore, it may be more efficient to have designated individuals at the state or regional level to serve as resources to those utilities that do not have the in-house expertise. The system could be modeled after poison- contro! hotlines, where individuals are highly trained to lead the caller through the response steps, based on the characteristics of the event. When making decisions about the classification of and access to information, consideration must be riven to the costs and benefits of wideiv releasing the water security information. A, , A, Overly restricting access to this information may unnecessarily impede efforts to prepare for and respond to an attack as well as result in the loss of valuable input from those who could provide improvements to the information. Ultimately, the criteria used to decide who shall or shall not have access to the information should be made available to the public. Essential water-security information should also be made available to the appropriate users at no cost. Summary Overall, the prioritization and sequencing of the projects to meet the needs are all considered appropriate, but recommendations are made to strengthen the projects and focus the EPA on activities that will provide useful results in a timely manner. In the development of the contaminant database, the EPA should identify the most relevant criteria to be included and focus initial data gathering on the highest priority information needed for response efforts. Where feasible, similar contaminants could be grouped into categories, thereby minimizing the time and effort required to produce a useful database. Information for the database should first be sought from existing sources, and the EPA will need to coordinate with other agencies to fill the remaining critical information gaps in a longer-term research effort. The scope of a simulant database should be narrowed to better address the potential applications for this effort, and guidance should be developed on the appropriate use of simulants. The EPA should also consider additional methods to improve the accessibility of its databases and carefully evaluate current restrictions on information access.

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76 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan Contaminant Monitoring and Analysis (Section 3.3) Reliable detection of contaminants is an important component of effective response to chemical and biological attacks on water supplies. As the scope of available pathogens and toxic chemicals expands, so must our abilities to detect their presence. Early detection of an intrusion will be one defense to minimize widespread exposure. Aside from obvious needs to define the extent of contamination, advise the public of the contamination, and, if necessary, take actions to avoid exposure, detection methods and associated protocols are essential for assessing performance of treatment and decontamination efforts. Project Evaluation The research projects identified in the Action Plan were evaluated to assess whether they could meet current water security needs related to contaminant identification. In general, the proposed research projects are appropriate, although there are some concerns related to individual projects that are described below. The panel's first report (Part I) recommended several revisions to the research and technical support needs, but for simplicity, the needs and projects as presented in the Action Plan (and their associated numbering scheme; see Box 3-3) are used to organize the project-specif~c discussion below. 3.3.a "Play Book" for Analytical Response. According to the draft Implementation Plan, the preparation of a draft analytical response plan for addressing threats to drinking water from chemical contaminants, including unknowns (projects 3.3.a.1 and 3.3.a.2), was scheduled to occur over a six-month period. Additional time may be needed to develop a complete and thorough analytical response module and to incorporate information that develops out of project 3.2.a.1, the identification of priority contaminants. As recommended in Part I, a play book may also need to be tailored to address the capabilities of small systems. The other projects identified to meet this need (projects 3.3.a.3-6) appear to be appropriate and logically sequenced. The development of response protocols (or modules, such as 3.3.a.1) is an essential task but needs to be integrated with the other proposed drinking water response protocols (3.3.a.2, 3.4.b.1, 3.4.~.1, 3.6.~.3) and coordinated with all the other parts of the Action Plan that provide the data to inform the protocols. Project managers responsible for the development of response protocols will need to communicate frequently and effectively with staff from salient portions of the entire research agenda to allow integration and updating as new data are generated. There must also be communication from those involved with the protocol development to those running other projects, indicating where important gaps are appearing as the protocols are examined, tested, and used by utilities and agencies. Therefore, adequate and continuing resources and effective, stable project management are especially important for this project to support the essential integrating function of the response guidance. 3.3.b Improved Hardware and Analysis Methodologies. Concentration techniques (project 3.3.b.1) are essential to the sampling and analysis of biological components, and the development of concentration techniques should be closely coordinated with projects on associated detection methodologies (3.3.b.3 and 3.3.b.5~. The resources committed to developing these concentration techniques for priority biological contaminants, however, may be insufficient to enable the EPA to achieve its goals. It is also likely that this effort will require a longer period than the two years

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 77 currently allotted. For example, the efforts to develop methods for a single contaminant, Cryptosporidium, for the purposes of the Information Collection Rule lasted for more than a year, involved several research laboratories, and cost more than a million dollars. It may be more efficient to focus on groups of contaminants in this project, rather than on individual contaminants. Project 3.3.b.4, as described in the draft Implementation Plan, involves the compilation of a list of existing protocols for microbiological contaminants. The length of time allotted to this project (15 months) may be excessive, since the project simply represents a thorough literature review. It should be noted that the Action Plan describes 3.3.b.4 as a different project the development of data quality objectives and other analysis goals which should be added to the Implementation Plan under 3.3.c. The sequencing of projects 3.3.b.5 and 3.3.b.6, which use the information obtained in projects 3.3.b.1 through 3.3.b.4, is appropriate and logical. Specifically with respect to project 3.3.b.5, which involves the development and application of new analytical hardware and analytical methodologies for biological, chemical, and radiological contaminants, it is doubtful that this can be accomplished within the 2.5-year time frame allotted and with the available resources. A great deal of effort has been expended in this area by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and others during the past several years, involving hundreds of researchers and at least $100 million. It is unreasonable to expect that the existing gaps can be filled in such a short time period with less than $1 million, as suggested in the draft Implementation Plan, although the EPA could make a valuable contribution by assessing recent and ongoing technological developments in contaminant analysis and identifying gaps and long-term research needs. 3.3.c Requirements for Monitoring Technologies. According to the projects 3.3.c.1 and 3.3.c.2, as described in the draft Implementation Plan, EPA plans to ask the water industry for their preferences in monitoring instruments and equipment, but this seems to have the wrong focus. Instead, the EPA should define a series of performance specifications for monitoring instruments and equipment. These specifications can then be used by the manufacturers when developing products to meet the monitoring needs of the industry. The EPA should not have the primary responsibility for surveying the industry about their preferences in monitoring instruments and equipment, but the agency could play a pivotal role in this process by bringing the water industry and manufacturers together to discuss this issue. There are some unique quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC), sampling, and detection issues related to monitoring technologies that were noted in the panel's first report (see Part I). Analytical quality assurance takes on special importance when considering contaminants that can cause widespread illness or panic. There are a few projects in the Action Plan that address some aspects of QA/QC (e.g., projects 3.3.b.4, and 3.3.~1.2), but QA/QC considerations should be an explicit component of all projects concerned with methods development and testing. For example, QA/QC measures need to be explicitly included in the development of standard operating procedures for evaluating monitoring techniques that will be done in project 3.3.~.2. Rates of false positives and false negatives should be clearly understood for all relevant monitoring . . . .. . . . .. . . . tee nno ogles. , . . . ~ ~ · . · ~ it should be noted that at least one component of project 3.3.f:5 (development ot performance criteria tor methods and infrastructure to assure the adequacy of training of field and laboratory personnel) is also a QA/QC project. The following projects should also be added to address gaps identified in the panel's first report. First, a project should be developed to explicitly address sampling protocols

78 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan for water security threat scenarios. Sampling may be especially problematic for hazardous contaminants because of concerns over the health of the technician and possible spreading of the contaminant by opening closed systems (e.g., unwanted exposure from opening hydrants). Protocols need to be developed to match the level of care required during sampling with the likelihood of risk. Second, a research project is needed to examine the spatial and temporal sampling requirements for particular types of events and for sampling contaminants in heterogeneous systems (e.g., in biofiIms, associated with particulate matter, or at interfaces). Refined sampling methodology may be needed for detecting pathogens in complex field settings. The results from this project should be incorporated into the above sampling protocol. 3.3.d Testing and Evaluation of Monitoring Technologies. Part I noted that the work to test and evaluate monitoring technologies used in the field (3.3.~ could be combined with the work on improving analytical hardware and analysis methodologies (3.3.b) because the distinction between the technologies is somewhat artificial. Nevertheless, for consistency, the projects listed under 3.3.d in the Action Plan have been reviewed here. Testing and evaluation of existing water monitoring technologies (such as turbidimeters and pH meters) for their ability to respond to changes in water quality under various contamination scenarios (project 3.3.~.1) is highly relevant to the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS) (projects 3.3e.1-4~. It could be more efficient, however, to begin this study by collecting existing information on the analytical sensitivity of technologies, including data from the U.S. Army's Joint Service Agent Water Monitor project, before investing in bench-scale studies. This contaminant- specific information on monitoring sensitivity could ultimately feed back into the contaminant database in 3.2.a.2. Project 3.3.~.4 involves the testing and evaluation of big-sentinels for monitoring changes in water quality. While this may be a useful too! for assessing changes in source water quality and in the quality of treated water at the plant or in source waters, the project should consider the maintenance requirements for using big-sentinels at multiple locations across a large distribution system. 3.3.e Early Warning Systems. As previously mentioned, there is some overlap between the Early Warning System (EWS) projects and projects 3.3.~.1 and 3.3.~.4, but no information was provided in the draft Implementation Plan to elaborate on the 3.3.e projects. However, upon discussion with EPA personnel, it appears that projects 3.3.e.1- 4 are focused on the processing of information from sensors and sensor arrays so that a decision can be reached on an ongoing basis as to whether or not a potential adverse event has occurred. This is an interesting and important set of problems that involves the fusion of information from different sensors located at different positions and/or sampling at different times, requiring carefully crafted decision logic. This work should consider information from other fields of research on signal detection and data fusion. The potential impact of false positives should be carefully reviewed in assessing how such Early Warning Systems could or should be implemented. It is critical to define at the outset what false positive rate and false negative rate would be acceptable, considering that false alarms will erode public confidence and burden responders. If the false positive rate is too high, there is a chance that responding personnel would tend, over time, to disregard the signals. Even if the false positive rate is very low, if many samples are taken in the face of very few expected "real" events, a large proportion of the positive signals would be false alarms. Projects 3.3.e.1-4 should be closely coordinated with monitoring projects 3.3.~1.1 and 3.3.~1.4 and project 3.4.a.5, which investigates the impact of noise levels in real time monitors on data collection and use, so that monitoring

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 79 technologies can be evaluated considering the data accuracy needed to support an early decision framework. 3.3.f Assessment of National Laboratory Capacity. All of the projects proposed to meet this need generally appear to be appropriate, as well as logically sequenced. Project 3.3.f:1, which will assess the analytical laboratory capacity, should also consider liability issues, including worker safety and the impact of obtaining false positive and false negative results. Therefore, as a part of project 3.3.f:1, the EPA should perform an assessment of analytical laboratories that handle other types of samples where liability is an issue few.. Sunerfund sites. forensics laboratories). Another consideration is the geographic distribution of the laboratory capacity. Project 3.3.f:1 should also assess the desirability of having mobile laboratories that could respond to contamination events at remote locations and their potential availability. As field monitoring capabilities expand, the need for laboratory analytical capacity may change; therefore, it will be important that project 3.3.f:1 be coordinated with monitoring technology assessment projects under 3.3.b and 3.3.~. Information obtained through projects 3.3.f:1 and 3.3.f:2 will need to be incorporated into improved contaminant analysis protocols and updates of the analytical response play book (projects 3.3.a.5 and 3.3.a.6~. 3.3.g Training. The development of training modules and evaluation exercises for the analytical methodologies and monitoring systems is a critical component of the Action Plan, and the projects described under this need are appropriate, although it should be noted that projects 3.3.g.2 and 3.3.g3 are identical. Summary Overall, the prioritization and sequencing of the projects to meet the needs are reasonable, although recommendations are offered to improve the projects, and several additional projects are suggested. The analytical response protocol is an essential core task in the Action Plan that should be integrated with other proposed response protocols and carefully coordinated with related projects. More emphasis should be given to OA/OC measures in the projects concerning methods development, considering the potential impact of false positives and false negatives. Related monitoring projects should be closely coordinated with the Early Warning System projects so that monitoring technologies can be evaluated in that context. A project should be developed to explicitly address sampling protocols for water security threat scenarios, and additional research is needed to examine the spatial and temporal sampling requirements for water security events. Issues of liability and geographic distribution of laboratories also need to be addressed. As stated above, it is clear that some of the projects (e.g., 3.3.b.1 and 3.3.b.5) will not be completed within the three-year time frame of the Action Plan and may require extensive resources to conduct as described. _ _

80 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 81

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A.? ::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~::::::::::::ff::::::::::::::~:::::::::::::::::::~:::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::: ......................... ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::: ::: ::::::: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::t: b: ~ ::~: A: : : .: : if: ::: ::7:::: :~.:::~::: : ::: :~.: b big : i:~:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::l:,r#:Jl~::J:~l:f :`r:::r: J:~:f:ll~f:.:~:~:::'::J :r~rf:~::::~::~:f:~:~:::I:f:~,rr:fl:.r}:l ::f:::::::::::: ~ r—~ van 4~ vat ~~ An. ~~— ~ ~~ ~~.~ ~ v—.~. r— ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::...:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::...::::::::..::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Containment, Treatment, Decontamination, and Disposal (Section 3.4) One of the most important stages in dealing with a contamination event will be the actions taken to contain and treat contaminated water. Depending on where a contaminant is introduced, this may involve response actions within a drinking water treatment plant, within the distribution system, or at points downstream. Any materials, including water, that cannot be successfully treated to meet water quality or other standards will have to be disposed of properly. In addition, the physical infrastructure of water systems may require decontamination before it can be safely reused. Project Evaluation The Action Plan presents a series of research and technical support projects (see Box 3-4) intended to support a response to a drinking water contamination event. The panel generally supports these projects, but provides suggestions for some expansion and reprioritization below. The projects are sequenced appropriately except where noted. 3.4.a Improved Distribution System Models. The projects identified here can improve the application of hydraulic models for water security events. In general, the nine listed projects are appropriate with a few exceptions noted below. Project 3.4.a.3 (the use of distribution system models to determine strategic locations for backflow prevention devices) is important because backflow prevention can help protect consumers from both accidental and intentional contamination events. This project should be accelerated so that it is conducted concurrently with projects 3.4.a.1 and 3.4.a.2. The value of these models for non-security-related system management applications should also be considered, such as for identifying weak points in their systems, because it is unlikely that models will be financially feasible in small systems unless they are developed to fulfill multiple operating purposes. An analysis tool for using distribution system models in small systems (project 3.4.a.7) may be important, but without a more detailed description, it is difficult to evaluate this project. This project should focus on evaluating the usefulness of a simplified model for small systems. Some systems may be so small that a model is not necessary, and other small systems may be too difficult to model without extensive efforts. Models may also not be as relevant for attacks that occur closer to consumers.

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 83 There may be some value to modeling water flow after the water meter at large industrial, residential, or commercial sites that have extensive water piping (project 3.4.a.~; however, the complexity and site-specif~c applicability of this project suggests that its lower priority in the Action Plan is appropriate. Coding health data and consumer complaints for routine display on a water system distribution system map as they occur (one of several goals for project 3.4.a.2) is a huge task and may represent a longer-term goal than the current time frame of the Action Plan. In addition, the effectiveness of linking routine health monitoring to water systems for early warning of potential waterborne exposures seems questionable considering the low disease reporting rates and incubation times relative to the transport time of a contaminant in the distribution system (see NRC, 2000~. Nevertheless, developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) interface module for mapping cases of illness onto a map of the water supply system would be a valuable contribution in the near term to assist investigators in determining the cause of an outbreak after it has occurred. Project 3.4.a.5 will investigate real-time monitors and the impact of data noise on their use. This project should be closely linked and appropriately sequenced with related work on Early Warning Systems described in projects 3.3.~.1 and 3.3.e.1-4. Although no details are provided on this project, it should in the near term examine currently available basic parameter measurement techniques (e.g., water pressure, particulates, indicator microbes, chlorine residual), while considering more specific contaminant detection techniques as longer-range research objectives. Basic monitoring technologies can be used to identify extraordinary occurrences, signaling a breach in the system that merits further investigation. Once the contaminant threat scenarios have been developed and the list of priority contaminants established (projects 3.2.a.1-2), the costs and benefits of A program to develop and test specific detection technologies for the priority contaminants would likely require resources that far exceed the current estimated costs of the Action Plan effort. specific contaminant detection technologies can be better evaluated. . . . . . · A- . . . - . . . · ~ .. . .. Two additional projects are recommended to support the need for improved distribution system models. First, the EPA should conduct an inventory or survey of water systems to determine (1) how many utilities have developed and calibrated hydraulic models, (2) which models are being used, and (3) the availability of information to develop models. The survey should also ask about the likely difficulties associated with the development and implementation of the models and training needs. This is a priority project, since it will inform other EPA efforts related to the development and application of distribution system models. A second project, which may represent a longer-term research effort, should focus on refining distribution system models to consider decay or die-off rates of water contaminants, the possible adsorption or attachment of the contaminants to the interior surfaces of pipes and storage reservoirs, and the continuous introduction of a contamination over a longer period of time. 3.4.b Improved Understanding of the Environmental Fate of Contaminants. The development of treatment protocols (or standard operating procedures) to employ if a contaminant is introduced into a drinking water system (project 3.4.b.1) is a high priority project whose prompt start is warranted, as the provision of immediately usable information to utilities and response organizations should be the primary goal of the Action Plan. It may be logical and efficient to organize and develop these protocols by categories of contaminants rather than by single substances since there is a limited range of responses available to a water system. Initially the project could marshal existing

84 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan documentation from many sources (including the military and other agency literature) and make it available for immediate use. There will naturally be many gaps that will have to be filled by best professional judgment or assumptions. In time, many of these gaps will be filled in or narrowed by more rigorous scientific investigation. Thus, the project should not be viewed as a single effort to produce a specific document or set of documents, but as a continuous effort that proceeds through successive improvements. The response procedures should be tested and disseminated to all essential players. Ease of use, ready access, and training should be key elements. Environmental fate data will be necessary to guide long-term response and remediation efforts after a water security contamination event. Nonetheless, the panel's first report (see Part I) recommended a more focused effort for examining the environmental fate of contaminants in drinking water, including a literature review as a precursor to any additional research, and the description of project 3.4.b.2 in the draft Implementation Plan is consistent with this recommendation. Improved understanding of the effects of biofiIms on contaminant fate in distribution systems (3.4.b.3) represents a long-term research objective that is not likely to be accomplished within the time frame of the Action Plan. 3.4.c Newer Technologies and Treatment Processes for Water and Equipment That Have Been Contaminated. The nine projects to address the need for contaminant treatment after a water system has been contaminated should be viewed as support for the development of response protocols for water security (projects 3.4.b.1 and 3.4.~.1), and as such, the content of these projects are appropriate. Considering the narrow time frame of the Action Plan and the need for immediate applicability of the results, most of the water security treatment projects appropriately emphasize an evaluation of existing treatment technologies. In the review of applicable technologies, various approaches should be considered, including in-place conventional treatment, new technologies that could be added in a quickly reactive mode, mobile technologies, and decontamination methods for treating the distribution system. In addition to assessing treatment technologies needed after a contamination event has occurred, the review should also note those technologies which could be used for prophylactic water treatment. The development of a treatment technology document database (project 3.4.c.~) should be advanced in time and conducted concurrently with project 3.4.c.l, to provide treatment guidance as quickly as possible. 3.4.d A Methodology for Determining When a Drinking Water System Is Contaminated and When It Is Clean. As with project 3.4.b.1, the project to develop protocols to guide response and recovery actions is at the heart of the Action Plan's overall objective. In order to provide immediate and applicable guidance to utilities and response organizations, the project should begin as soon as possible (simultaneously with the parallel response protocol development project, 3.4.b.1) instead of almost a year later. Like the other protocols proposed, this will be an exercise in successive approximations and should not be delayed until all pieces are in place. This is a continuous process, which will require periodic updates to the protocols. As with all of the protocol development projects, this effort will need stable management, effective two-way communication with all the other projects, and adequate and continuing resources. summary Many of the projects proposed to address the needs of containment, treatment, decontamination, and disposal are central to building an improved recovery capacity.

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 85 The two sets of response protocols (3.4.b.1 and 3.4.~.1) represent high priority projects and should begin as soon as possible. Early versions of the protocols may require estimates to fill information gaps, but the refinement of response protocols should be considered a continuous effort that proceeds through successive improvements. Coordination with the other response protocols identified in the Action Plan and the many other projects which provide the data that inform the protocols will be essential. The development of a treatment technology document database (project 3.4.c.~) should be advanced in time to provide treatment guidance as quickly as possible. Two additional projects are recommended to support the need for improved distribution system models: the EPA should conduct a survey of the use of hydraulic models at water utilities, and additional long-term research is needed to further enhance the capabilities of distribution system models. Several recommendations are provided to focus the projects on more reasonable near-term goals and to clarify longer-term research objectives.

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Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan Contingency Planning and Infrastructure Interdependencies (Section 3.5) 87 As part of an emergency response program, water systems need contingency plans for providing a sufficient quantity of water to their service area in the event that deliberate malfeasance or natural hazards occur. Water systems are increasingly relying on automation, which depends on the reliable functioning of other systems (e.g., electric, telecommunications). Thus, contingency planning should consider the potential for disruption to occur, not only within a water supply system, but also to one or more of these necessary auxiliary systems. The projects identified in the Action Plan are intended to address this need. Project Eva1/~uation The suite of projects described appears to adequately address the needs identified in the original Action Plan (see Box 3-5~. However, the panel recommended in Part I that an additional need be added to section 3.5 to assess the consequences of and response to issues of operator incapacity in the event of a critical emergency. One or more projects should be developed to address this need, for which suggestions are outlined below. 3.5.a Assessment of Water Supply Alternatives. The assessment of alternative water supplies is an essential step for emergency response and preparedness. Nevertheless, many factors that differentiate water systems other than size and geography, including sources of water, interconnections, and system design among others (see Part I for further discussion) should be considered. The development of case studies for contingency planning (project 3.5.a.1) could appropriately be combined or sequenced with the assessment of redundancy approaches (project 3.5.a.3~. Customer preparedness should be included in the contingency analyses or a new project should be developed to review the appropriate role and responsibility of customers in preparing for water system emergencies. The project on systematic analysis of optimal water supply sources using a GIS-based approach (project 3.5.a.4) was not clearly described; thus, it was difficult to evaluate. Each water utility is unique, and analyses of alternate water sources are typically already covered by emergency response and/or VA plans. The prioritization of the projects generally seems appropriate. 3.5.b Testing and Evaluation of Improved Technologies and Approaches for Providing Supplies of Water. Few details were provided on the projects to evaluate approaches for long- and short-term emergency water supplies (3.5.b.1-2~. Some overlap exists between these projects and project 3.5.a.2, although the Action Plan places an emphasis on evaluating novel technologies to meet this need. The development of "innovative" technologies would be unrealistic in the time frame of the Action Plan and more appropriate for a long-term research agenda. However, an analysis of recently developed technologies would be appropriate and should include an assessment of the reliability and capacity of the technologies, since the ability to supply alternative water may not be indefinite. The work conducted for project 3.4.c.5 to assess Point of Use/Point of Entry (POW/POE) device capabilities is also relevant here. The information gained from these projects should be made available to water utilities and emergency responders as soon as is feasible, perhaps in a widely accessible database. 3.5.c An Improved Understanding of Water System Interdependencies with Other Infrastructure Sectors. The scope of the project identified to address water system interdependencies with other infrastructure should be expanded to include an

88 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan understanding of the re1/tiabi1/tity of systems upon which continued functioning of the water system depends (e.g., electric power, road transportation, telecommunications, etch. The project should assess the weakest links among the systems that are needed to support continued functioning, utilizing lessons learned from various case studies (e.g., Y2K, the August 2003 blackout), before evaluating potential contingency responses. The benefits and risks of disaggregation or decentralization should also be considered. This project may also benefit from information gained in project 3.1.b.2, which will explore cascading consequences of attacks on water supply systems. Additiona1/t Research and Technica1/t Support Needs In its July 2003 report (Part b, the panel added a fourth need to section 3.5 to reflect a missing element that should be considered, for which appropriate projects should be developed. This need statement reads: Explicit understanding of the role of failure of the "human subsystem" in water system operation, and development of contingencies for responding to such eventualities. The Action Plan should include a project to consider under what circumstances the operation of a water treatment plant or supply system could be adversely impacted by the incapacitation of the plant operators or supporting personnel, and whether there are potential contingencies or mitigations for such occurrences. It should be noted that a failure of "human subsystems" that could impact a water system could occur as a result of a direct attack via a non-water route, for example via a massive community bioterrorism incident. Summary Overall, the panel felt that the prioritization, timing, and sequencing of the research projects to meet the needs are appropriate. Recommendations are offered to improve the projects, and one additional project is suggested. A review of the appropriate role and responsibility of customers in preparing for water system emergencies should be included in the contingency analyses. An analysis of recently developed water supply technologies should include an assessment of the reliability of the technologies, and the information should be made available as soon as is feasible. The projects to assess the interdependencies with infrastructure should utilize lessons learned from various case studies before evaluating potential contingency responses, and the benefits and risks of disaggregation or decentralization should also be considered. In support of the additional research need recommended in Part I, the Action Plan should develop a project to evaluate impacts from failure of the "human subsystem" and whether there are potential contingencies for such occurrences. . . . . .

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 89

9o A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan Targeting Impacts on Human Health and Informing the Public about Risks (Section 3.6) Because human health protection is one of the ultimate endpoints of the EPA's water security efforts, research into better understanding the human response to contamination or threat scenarios is critical. This includes not only human physical response to different classes of waterborne contaminants and ways to measure that response, but also the social and psychological response to contamination events and how to best communicate relevant threat information to all stakeholders. Project Evaluation The Action Plan presents a series of research and technical projects (see Box 3-6) intended to support an assessment of impacts on human health from a drinking water contamination event. The panel generally supports these projects, but provides suggestions for improving the projects and presents several additional projects below. The projects are sequenced appropriately except where noted. 3.6.a An Improved Understanding of Contaminant Exposure Routes and the Acute and Chronic Public Health Effects from Contaminants in Drinking Water. The compilation of acute, short-term, and chronic non-cancer health effect information into a database of the priority contaminants (project 3.6.a.1) should build upon existing information from such agencies as the CDC and the Department of Defense (DOD). Acute toxicity data would be needed for the early phase of response to an attack on water supplies. Chronic health effect data are important to the recovery phase when determining whether or not low levels of residual exposures over weeks or months pose any significant risks. Cancer information could easily be included and would be useful information for assessing the risks of longer-term exposures and for reassuring the public. Several models exist to support quantitative predictions/estimates of the extent of the exposure from various routes (e.g., showering, bathing, cooking) for substances based upon their physical and chemical properties (project 3.6.a.2~. Nevertheless, models to estimate acute exposure from waterborne routes are less well developed than the equivalent information for chronic exposures. Information on secondary transmission of pathogens should be gathered from agencies such as the CDC or the DepaWnent of Homeland Security for this exposure assessment. Early analyses should be conducted on broad classes of agents, where possible, to quickly provide initial guidance, and additional details could be continually filled in over time. The results of these estimations will be important to support selection of the appropriate response and recovery actions and determinations of when systems may be returned to limited or unrestricted service. The database (project 3.6.a.3) of the information developed in projects 3.6.a.1-2 would be a valuable too! both for water security concerns and for responding to the reports of drinking water contamination that occasionally occur. This information should be made widely available in a user-friendly format to utilities, public health agencies, and responders. A fast-paced review of existing methods to evaluate the toxicity or infectivity of contaminants for which little toxicological data exists (project 3.6.a.4) is an important activity, which should be initiated immediately and closely coordinated with the activities in 3.6.c. This review should enable tested methodologies to be applied immediately to filling in the data gaps for priority contaminants, and it should illuminate the gaps where additional method development work is needed. The review should also clearly present the limitations of these methods.

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 91 3.6.b A Health Surveillance Network Associated with Contaminated Drinking Water. A single project is proposed (3.6.b.1) that recognizes the importance of having significant EPA participation as well as collaboration with the CDC and other federal agencies in developing procedures for detecting an outbreak and investigating the possible role of water. The project is appropriate and of high priority. The following recommendations are made to assist the EPA in planning this project and implementing a surveillance network (see also Part I). In developing procedures for effective surveillance and investigation, it will be important to collaborate with state and local agencies as well as other federal partners. The identified project should describe the overall needs of a surveillance program, how waterborne disease surveillance would fit into a larger surveillance program, and the investigative response (e.g., who will take the lead for initiating action). Surveillance activities should include procedures for monitoring outcomes of interest and coordinating the response of a team of investigators (epidemiologists, physicians, microbiologists, chemists, and engineers) if water is the suspected mode of transmission. In order to confirm or deny the role of water as a route of transmission during an event, water quality sampling and analysis will need to be paired with active disease surveillance data. The effectiveness of current active disease surveillance systems at the local and state level should be clearly understood, and public health surveillance during recent inadvertent drinking water contamination events should be examined for lessons learned. There is also an important communication component to this need (3.6.b) on many levels (e.g., among the investigators, with the public). 3.6.c A Methodology for Using Non-traditional Data Sources for the Derivation of Toxicity Values Applied to Water. Methodology for estimating toxicity values using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSAR) (project 3.6.c.2) already exists for several health endpoints, and expertise exists in EPA to both apply existing methodology and to develop new methodologies that might be desirable. These predictive systems are far from perfect, but several methodologies are capable of providing useful information in the absence of specific experimental data. Applying LD50 data for risk assessment (project 3.6.c.1) presents more difficulties, and EPA should defer to other agencies (e.g., the U.S. Army) that are already exploring this methodology, assuming that an appropriate collaboration can be established. 3.6.d Frameworks for Assessing and Managing Risks. As noted in the panel's first report (Part A, risk assessment and risk management should be integrated into decision making during all stages of a water security event, from threat assessment to event response. The projects identified in the Action Plan should support this objective. However, considering the time constraints of the Action Plan, the 3.6.d projects should represent a focused and applied effort that builds upon the existing knowledge base in risk assessment and risk management (e.g., NRC, 1983; PCC, 1997; ILSI, 2000~. Ultimately, the projects should generate an operating procedure for risk assessment and risk management that is designed to apply specifically to the water security context. This would naturally begin with a review of current approaches, but because many of these approaches are conceptually similar, such a review should not take long. All three projects identified here are essentially part of the same project, and they should be combined and completed within one year, as they are high priority components of a water security response protocol, along with the protocols or "play books" developed in 3.3.a.1- 2 and 3.4.~1.1.

92 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan 3.6.e Methods and Means to Communicate Risks to Local Communities. The panel's first report (Part I) noted that "developing an effective broad communication strategy that meets the needs of a wide range of stakeholders, including response organizations, water organizations and utilities, public health agencies, and the media, should be among the highest priorities for the EPA." The Action Plan recognizes the importance of risk communication within the risk analysis framework. However, the project to develop a framework for risk assessment and risk communication (3.6.e.1) as described in the draft Implementation Plan emphasizes developing tools. communication tools provide mechanisms tor water managers to communicate with stakeholders about a variety of issues, but they should not precede a thoughtful communication strategy or minimize active two-way communication. Thus, EPA should prioritize research that reviews and refines existing communication strategies and explores how tools can be used more effectively, instead of only emphasizing tool development. Tools without a process to support them will not provide the return on the investment that EPA is making, nor will they help water mangers communicate effectively. Projects 3.6.e.1-4 should focus on identifying the appropriate risk communication planning process that will help water managers not only select tools but also identify stakeholders, assess stakeholder needs, and determine how stakeholders communicate within their network. These projects should be conducted in two phases. The first phase of the project focuses on the selection and refinement of a risk communication strategy for water security and consists of several steps. Many risk communication resources exist that should first be consulted and evaluated (see for example NRC, 2003a; USHHS, 2002; EPA, 2002; EPA, 20031; USFDA, 2002; ATSDR, 2001; Hance et al., 1988; Pflugh et al., 1992~. Information sharing strategies also have to be considered, such as when to release information, who are the audiences, and how to explain risk. If existing risk communication strategies do not meet the needs of water security, the project could then tailor existing strategies as necessary. Once a strategy is selected or adapted, it should be field-tested using an emergency simulation to determine its effectiveness should a real emergency arise. It is not anticipated that Phase One should take more than 1 ~ months to complete. The second phase (projects 3.6.e.2-4) of the research should focus on developing, testing, and distributing communication tools. Such tools might include written materials (e.g., pamphlets, websites), an on-line database of water-related information, or a water information hotline. Phase Two should only be initiated after careful testing and evaluation of the communication planning strategy has been completed, because the planning strategy will provide the basis for identifying and developing the tools proposed in Phase Two. Tools should be developed with different scenarios in mind based on several case examples, and field testing will be critical in order to determine the behavioral response to a risk message. The tools should then be distributed through existing networks being used by water managers. Additional communication research is warranted relative to risk and the public's response to risk messages in a water terrorism event. The following research topics should be considered as additions to the projects identified in the Action Plan: ~ . . . . . ~ · Analyze when to release information versus when to withhold it due to security concerns. · Conduct a case study analysis of risk communication strategies and tools for past disaster events.

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 93 · Develop a national training program on water-related risk communication planning and implementation for water managers. · Analyze factors that build trust, reduce fear, and prevent panic to improve overall communication strategies. · Analyze methods to counter and reduce the possibility of misinformation or false information being distributed to the public and key stakeholders. A thorough assessment of the risks and benefits of widely releasing water security information is critical to the development of a risk communication strategy, and the decision of when to release or withhold information may influence the subsequent selection of communication tools (see also the comments on section 5.2~. This project should be conducted as soon as possible. The case study analysis should be conducted concurrent to the selection and refinement of risk communication strategies (Phase One, as proposed above) to incorporate lessons learned from prior emergency events. The training program is a high priority effort, but it should be sequenced to incorporate the knowledge developed in projects 3.6.e.1-4. The final two proposed projects are also important to the refinement of risk communication strategies and tools, but information from these projects can be incorporated to improve the communication strategies and tools over time. summary The projects identified to improve the understanding of contamination-related health effects, develop or refine a risk management framework, and enhance risk communication are essential for water security preparedness and response, and several recommendations are made to enhance or expand on the projects proposed. The project to generate an operating procedure for risk assessment and risk management for water security is essential to decision making and should be accelerated and coordinated with other response protocols in the Action Plan. Analyses of acute and chronic health effects and quantitative assessments of potential exposure should build on existing knowledge in order to provide guidance to utilities and responders as quickly as possible. A review of predictive methodologies to assess toxicology values in absence of experimental data should be accelerated to illuminate gaps where additional method development work is needed and to clearly define the limitations of these methods. In the area of risk communication, EPA should emphasize research that reviews and refines existing communication strategies and explores how tools can be used more effectively, instead of only emphasizing tool development. A two-phased effort is recommended to support the needs of water security: first, selecting and refining a risk communication strategy, and second, developing, testing, and distributing communication tools. Several additional research projects are recommended that could improve risk communication activities. Recommendations are also provided to assist the EPA in planning and implementing an active disease surveillance network.

94 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan WASTEWATER The wastewater section of the Action Plan is not as developed as the drinking water section; therefore, the panel's comments in its first report (see Part I) were correspondingly less detailed. The threats potentially posed by an attack on the wastewater system are different in important ways from those posed by an attack on the drinking water system. Protecting the wastewater systems against attack and precluding the wastewater system from being used as an instrument for attacking other critical infrastructure are both important and deserve attention. Wastewater Infrastructure (Section 4.0) Two general aspects need to be considered for protecting wastewater systems: (1) risks from physical damage, and (2) risks to public health and environmental quality via treatment plant disruption. Unlike much of the water supply infrastructure, wastewater

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 95 collection systems can provide easy access to many physical structures, serving as a potential conduit for malicious use; thus, physical damage by means of wastewater collection systems may represent the greatest risk to people and infrastructure. Wastewater treatment plants may also be disrupted by physical or some types of contaminant attacks, resulting in reduced treatment performance. One consequence would be the direct discharge of untreated or marginally treated sewage to receiving waters until the plant can be reinstated, affecting downstream drinking water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Because treatment plant disruptions have occasionally occurred, there are techniques and practices already available to deal with temporary outages and they represent less direct risks to human health than drinking water system contamination. Storage of hazardous materials, such as chlorine gas, and disposal of contaminated wastes and sludges represent additional security concerns specific to wastewater systems. There are also some similarities between drinking water and wastewater security needs, and research and technical projects should be carefully planned so as not to duplicate ongoing work.

96 Project Evaluation A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan EPA is currently collaborating with the Water Environment Research Foundation for additional input and will soon present revised plans for research and technical support in the area of wastewater infrastructure. Because the projects proposed in the Action Plan are likely to undergo substantial revision in this process, the panel focused its review on those projects which are currently ongoing or slated to begin in 2003 (4.a.1-4; 4.b.1; 4.c.1-2; 4.e.1; see Box 3-7) . Generally, these early projects are appropriate to meet the most pressing needs for wastewater, focusing primarily on threat assessment, determination of countermeasures, and access control. However, project 4.c.2 (to assess technologies to identify physical threats and contaminant introduction) should be delayed until vulnerability assessments and threat assessments have been conducted for wastewater infrastructure, so that the importance of contaminant detection for wastewater security can be evaluated relative to other proposed projects. The project that evaluates the linkages and interdependencies between drinking water and wastewater systems (4.a.4) may provide important insight that will help EPA managers evaluate the relative priority of additional wastewater security research. The significance of wastewater contamination or sewage discharges on drinking water quality will depend upon stream flow conditions, distance, time of travel, dilution, and the characteristics of the particular agent all of which can be modeled. The Ohio River Monitoring and Notification Network is an example of an existing system designed to detect sewage and chemical spills in the river and provide rapid warnings to downstream water systems. EPA may wish to examine examples of these types of networks to assess their capabilities and applicability with regard to terrorism incidents. With regard to hazardous materials used in wastewater plants (4.b), the wastewater industry could benefit from the knowledge and experience of other industries (e.g., the paper and chemical industries) that are facing similar security concerns. The remaining projects were not reviewed since more detailed wastewater security discussions and further project development are ongoing at EPA. Additional Projects Management and disposal of contaminated waste and sludges (including materials generated in the course of a cleanup or response action) is an area where additional research and technical support projects may be needed. There is considerable experience with managing wastes from hazardous waste sites that may provide sufficient background. As a first order of business, existing procedures should be assembled and examined for adequacy in the context of a municipal waste contamination incident. The adequacy of plant worker protection to prevent harm during potential water security attacks should also be considered. However, since sewage is routinely laden with pathogens and chemicals, current practices may be sufficiently protective.

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 97

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Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 99 IMPLEMENTATION Effective implementation of the Action Plan is an essential component for improving water system security through enhanced research and technical support. Communication and dissemination of the results of the Action Plan are among the most important aspects of implementation. Implementation also involves continually assessing ongoing work and emerging needs in the area of water security, building and sustaining collaborative relationships with other water security researchers and organizations, determining and articulating the roles and responsibilities of other organizations and federal agencies in conducting the work identified in the Action Plan, and identifying and securing the necessary funding to support the identified projects. An effective implementation plan would also include a process and schedule for reviewing the water security effort as it progresses, evaluating its impact, and reassessing its priorities. Providing the Means to Implement the Action Plan (Section 5.0) Eight projects have been identified in the draft Implementation Plan (EPA, 2003b), expanding on the ideas presented in the Action Plan (see Box 3-~. Overall, the projects that are proposed make valuable contributions to the implementation effort. However, some projects or aspects of projects may be missing, as discussed in more detail below. Project Eva1/~uation 5.1.a Collaborative Research and Technical Support. As noted in NRC (2003a), building collaborative relationships with a broad array of knowledgeable researchers and agency representatives to share existing knowledge, identify research and technical support gaps, target resources to projects that can generate the most benefit, and minimize duplication of effort is essential to the success of the Action Plan and should be a high priority for the EPA. The formation of the Distribution System Research Consortium is an important first step toward improving coordination and collaboration among researchers in the water security arena. Currently, the consortium includes representatives from the military (e.g., Edgewood Chemical Biological Center, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), AwwaRF, and several federal agencies (e.g., CDC, U.S. Geological Survey, EPA). However, as currently comprised, the group represents only a portion of the broad spectrum of those with expertise in this area. The group should be expanded to include researchers, consultants, utilities, and national laboratories with expertise in this area, as originally identified in the Action Plan. The EPA should also continue to strengthen partnerships with organizations that have focused on deliberate attacks on water systems for several years, such as the U.S. Army and international experts. EPA managers have noted that developing research consortia is a new, experimental effort, which may be expanded into other fields once the success of this first project is evaluated. Additional topics and research fields that might also benefit from improved collaboration in order to share findings and minimize duplicative research include incident assessment/risk analysis; mitigation, treatment, and response; and contaminant detection. 5.2.a Technology Advancement. Several projects were identified that involve verification of emerging water-security technologies. The cost for the Environmental Technology Verification (ETV) projects ($~.1 million) would consume over 30 percent of the total estimated budget for the Action Plan (EPA, 2003b). Undoubtedly, there are

100 A Review of the EPA Water Security Action Plan benefits to advancing key technologies and providing a structured verification process that will assist utilities in evaluating the water security technologies available. However, considering the enormous resources required, these technologies should be selected using cost-benefit analyses. The verification process should focus on those technologies that provide the greatest potential benefits considering the relative risks and factors affecting their ultimate use, such as cost to utilities. For projects 5.2.a.2-3, ETV funds should be awarded selectively to technologies that are broadly applicable to classes of chemicals/microbes or that are specific to high-risk, likely threat agents. The subsidization should be provided for essential devices that would not otherwise be tested because they have very limited commercial potential. 5.3.a Information Sharing. Developing an effective broad communication strategy that meets the needs of the wide range of stakeholders, including response organizations, water organizations and utilities, public health agencies, and the media, while addressing security concerns, should be among the highest priorities for the EPA. Results that cannot be communicated, are not accessible, or are poorly conveyed so that they are misunderstood are not useful. The EPA is currently struggling with many of these issues, and a plan for water security research communication is under development. The projects identified in the draft Implementation Plan are appropriately prioritized, although some additional components and separate projects are suggested to strengthen the effort. The project to develop example practices (5.3.a.1) is important, as it will guide future communications efforts within EPA. Overall, the number and complexity of databases should be minimized to improve the accessibility of the data to the target users, and there are several cases where databases could be combined (e.g., the databases of treatment technologies, 3.4.c.S, and the critical properties for priority contaminants, 3.2.b.1~. As noted with regard to section 3.2, in order to broaden the accessibility of the information and because the database training requirements may be extensive and unnecessary for all utilities, multiple communication strategies should be considered. Small utilities should be given the option to call EPA (or designated state agencies) directly and allow staff to search the databases on their behalf to answer immediate questions. A second project (5.3.a.2) addresses how to get the right information to the right people at the right time, and this project should be among the highest priority efforts of the entire Action Plan. In this project, EPA will need to identify who might use and need the information being produced from the Action Plan and how will it be used, in order to effectively target dissemination methods and products to the appropriate audience. The draft concept paper on Water Security Information Sharing Strategy (EPA, 2003c) makes a good initial assessment of this, recognizing the wide array of potential information users and products. Several important issues, however, were not adequately addressed and the following projects are recommended to fill in these gaps: · Conduct an analysis of the consequences of various levels of information security, including studies on the risks and benefits of widely transmitting water security data. This study should incorporate case study analyses of similar events, such as the anthrax attacks in 2001. (This project could be combined with the project proposed in 3.6.e.) · Assess the benefits and limitations of existing methods of dissemination (e.g., web pages, the Water Information Sharing and Analysis Center), including the cost burden to the government and those who need the information, so that managers can decide whether existing dissemination mechanisms are appropriate

Review of Projects Identified in the Action Plan 101 to the agency's communication needs. 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A Review of the EPA Water Security Research and Technical Support Action Plan: Parts I and II Get This Book
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The report examines a draft plan, prepared by the Environmental Protection Agency, that identifies critical security issues for drinking water and wastewater and outlines related research and technical support needs. This report recommends increased attention to interagency coordination and encourages additional consideration of current restrictions on secure information dissemination. It further suggests that EPA incorporate the results of their research activities into an integrated water security guidance document to improve support for water and wastewater utilities.

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