APPENDIX B
WORKSHOP AGENDA

Thursday, January 30, 2003

9:00-9:30

Welcome, introductions; review agenda and goals of the meeting

Jerry Mahlman, NCAR

9:30-10:00

Information needs regarding climate sensitivity

Jane Leggett, EPA

Example: the MAGICC/SCENGEN model and its use of climate sensitivity estimates

Tom Wigley, NCAR

10:00-10:30

An overview of the IPCC/TAR process for determining climate sensitivity estimates

Venkatchalam Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL

10:30-11:00

Recent intercomparison studies between the GFDL and NCAR climate models

Anthony Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL

11:00-12:30

Discussion Panel: Approaches to Estimating Climate Sensitivity

• What are the various methods used to estimate climate sensitivity?

• What accounts for the differences among published estimates?

Peter Stone, MIT; Jonathan Gregory, Hadley Centre; Natalia Andronova, University of Illinois

1:15-1:30

An overview of the NRC Climate Research Committee’s ‘Climate Feedbacks’ Study

Eugene Rasmusson, University of Maryland

1:30- 3:00

Discussion Panel: Climate Feedbacks

• Do the climate sensitivity studies discussed above adequately account for the relevant feedbacks in the earth’s climate system?

• Do they account for the different timescales over which these various feedbacks operate?

William Collins, NCAR (clouds, aerosols); Venkatchalam Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL (water vapor); Michael Prather, University of California, Irvine (chemistry); Joyce Penner, University of Michigan (aerosols); Jonathan Gregory, Hadley Centre (ocean, sea ice)

3:30- 5:00

Discussion Panel: Characterizing Uncertainty

• What approaches are used for characterizing uncertainty in climate sensitivity? (a single “best estimate”?

• A range of values derived from various models?

• Probabilistic approaches? Expert opinion and Baysean statistical approaches?

• How does the present uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates compare with uncertainties in radiative forcing, emission scenarios, etc.?

Peter Stone, MIT; Michael Schlesinger, University of Illinois; Michael Mann, University of Virginia; Richard Moss, CCSP



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OCR for page 36
APPENDIX B WORKSHOP AGENDA Thursday, January 30, 2003 9:00-9:30 Welcome, introductions; review agenda and goals of the meeting Jerry Mahlman, NCAR 9:30-10:00 Information needs regarding climate sensitivity Jane Leggett, EPA Example: the MAGICC/SCENGEN model and its use of climate sensitivity estimates Tom Wigley, NCAR 10:00-10:30 An overview of the IPCC/TAR process for determining climate sensitivity estimates Venkatchalam Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL 10:30-11:00 Recent intercomparison studies between the GFDL and NCAR climate models Anthony Broccoli, NOAA/GFDL 11:00-12:30 Discussion Panel: Approaches to Estimating Climate Sensitivity • What are the various methods used to estimate climate sensitivity? • What accounts for the differences among published estimates? Peter Stone, MIT; Jonathan Gregory, Hadley Centre; Natalia Andronova, University of Illinois 1:15-1:30 An overview of the NRC Climate Research Committee’s ‘Climate Feedbacks’ Study Eugene Rasmusson, University of Maryland 1:30- 3:00 Discussion Panel: Climate Feedbacks • Do the climate sensitivity studies discussed above adequately account for the relevant feedbacks in the earth’s climate system? • Do they account for the different timescales over which these various feedbacks operate? William Collins, NCAR (clouds, aerosols); Venkatchalam Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL (water vapor); Michael Prather, University of California, Irvine (chemistry); Joyce Penner, University of Michigan (aerosols); Jonathan Gregory, Hadley Centre (ocean, sea ice) 3:30- 5:00 Discussion Panel: Characterizing Uncertainty • What approaches are used for characterizing uncertainty in climate sensitivity? (a single “best estimate”? • A range of values derived from various models? • Probabilistic approaches? Expert opinion and Baysean statistical approaches? • How does the present uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates compare with uncertainties in radiative forcing, emission scenarios, etc.? Peter Stone, MIT; Michael Schlesinger, University of Illinois; Michael Mann, University of Virginia; Richard Moss, CCSP

OCR for page 36
Friday, January 31, 2003 9:00- 10:30 Discussion Panel: Meeting the Needs of the User Community • What are the various uses for which the concept of climate sensitivity is applied? • What climate response metrics could be developed for these various applications? • What do the users find deficient with the information that science currently provides; what do they want science to do better? • How meaningful is the concept of climate sensitivity, as currently defined, for climate change risk assessment studies? Are there other possible approaches to characterizing climate response that might be more useful for policy-relevant analyses? Rosina Bierbaum, University of Michigan; Tom Wigley, NCAR 10:30-noon Closing Session • Review and integrate lessons learned in the various panel discussions. • Discuss key information needs and research priorities.