SECURING THE FUTURE OF U.S. AIR TRANSPORTATION

A System in Peril

Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Vision 2050

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Studies and Information Services

Transportation Research Board

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril SECURING THE FUTURE OF U.S. AIR TRANSPORTATION A System in Peril Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Vision 2050 Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Studies and Information Services Transportation Research Board NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-99037 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09069-5 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-52738-4 (PDF) Available in limited supply from the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, (202) 334-2858 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril COMMITTEE ON AERONAUTICS RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY FOR VISION 2050 RONALD R. FOGLEMAN, Chair, Durango Aerospace, Inc., Durango, Colorado JACK CLEMONS, Lockheed Martin Air Traffic Management, Rockville, Maryland WILLIAM B. COTTON, Flight Safety Technologies, Inc., Mount Prospect, Illinois EUGENE E. COVERT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge WILLARD J. DODDS, GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati WILLIAM W. HOOVER, United States Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Rolls Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis NANCY G. LEVESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge RICHARD MARCHI, Airports Council International–North America, Washington, D.C. RICHARD R. PAUL, The Boeing Company Phantom Works, Seattle AMY R. PRITCHETT, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta ROBERT J. RAVERA, RJR Aviation, LLC, Reston, Virginia SANFORD REDERER, Aviation Planning and Finance, Arlington, Virginia HERBERT H. RICHARDSON, Texas A&M University System, College Station RUSSELL D. SHAVER III, RAND, Arlington, Virginia DAVID D. WOODS, Ohio State University, Columbus Staff ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director KARA BATH, Senior Project Assistant BRIDGET EDMONDS, Senior Project Assistant JENNIFER PINKERMAN, Research Associate GEORGE LEVIN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD WILLIAM W. HOOVER, Chair, United States Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia A. DWIGHT ABBOTT, Aerospace Corporation (retired), Los Angeles RUZENA K. BAJSCY, NAE, IOM, University of California, Berkeley JAMES BLACKWELL, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Marietta, Georgia ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia SUSAN COUGHLIN, Aviation Safety Alliance, Washington, D.C. ROBERT CRIPPEN, Thiokol Propulsion, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida DONALD L. CROMER, United States Air Force (retired), Fallbrook, California JOSEPH FULLER, Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI, GRA Incorporated, Jenkintown, Pennsylvania JAMES M. GUYETTE, Rolls-Royce, North America, Chantilly, Virginia JOHN L. JUNKINS, Texas A&M University, College Station JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Redwood City, California ILAN M. KROO, Stanford University, Stanford, California JOHN K. LAUBER, Airbus North America, Inc., Washington, D.C. GEORGE K. MUELLNER, The Boeing Company, Seal Beach, California DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES G. O’CONNOR, NAE, Pratt & Whitney (retired), Coventry, Connecticut MALCOLM R. O’NEILL, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland CYNTHIA SAMUELSON, Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville HANSEL E. TOOKES II, Raytheon International, Inc. (retired), Falls Church, Virginia DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California THOMAS L. WILLIAMS, Northrop Grumman, Bethpage, New York Staff GEORGE LEVIN, Director

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril Preface In the past few years, the current status and future vision of the U.S. air transportation system have been examined in numerous studies. NASA’s recent Aeronautics Blueprint notes that the United States and the world are becoming “more dependent on the ability to move goods and people faster and more efficiently by air…. Over the last century, aviation has evolved to become an integral part of our economy, a cornerstone of our national defense, and an essential component of our way of life…. Americans per capita use aviation more than any other country in the world, … [and nonbusiness] personal travel accounts for more than 50 percent of commercial air transportation.” 1 What is needed now is vigorous action to refine and achieve the broadly held future vision of an air transportation system that can meet consumer demands for safety, security, comfort, and convenience; public demands for environmental compatibility; and national economic demands for a globally competitive civil aeronautics industry. Achieving this vision will not be easy—and will not be possible without strong national leadership. Fortunately, sometimes the flow of history leads to a confluence of events that creates an opportunity to meet great challenges. As suggested by this committee in a letter report dated August 14, 2002,2 the 100th anniversary of powered flight, which will take place in December 2003, provides an excellent opportunity both to create a bold new vision for air transportation and to initiate vigorous action by government agencies and private organizations to pursue that vision. Allowing this opportunity to pass without action would be a tragic mistake. Ronald Fogleman, Chair Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Vision 2050 1   National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2002. Aeronautics Blueprint. Available online at <www.aerospace.nasa.gov/aero_blueprint/index.html>. 2   National Research Council (NRC). 2002. Aeronautics Research and Technology for 2050: Assessing Visions and Goals—Letter Report. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Available online at <www.nap.edu/catalog/10518.html>.

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Daniel Brand, Charles River Associates, Jack E. Buffington, Mack-Blackwell National Rural Transportation Study Center, Richard M. Carlson, Consultant, Robert A. Davis, The Boeing Company (retired), John J. Fearnsides, Lockheed Martin Air Traffic Management, Gerald J. Iafrate, North Carolina State University, Ilan Kroo, Stanford University, Amedeo R. Odoni, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Clinton V. Oster, Jr., Indiana University, Thomas B. Sheridan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Agam N. Sinha, The MITRE Corporation, Edmond L. Soliday, United Airlines (retired), and Bill G.W. Yee, Belcan Corporation. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lester A. Hoel, University of Virginia, and Adib K. Kanafani, University of California, Berkeley. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The committee also wishes to thank all those who supported the work of the committee, particularly Stephen Godwin, Director, Studies and Information Services, of the NRC’s Transportation Research Board, and all those who participated in the committee’s information-gathering meetings during Phase 1 or Phase 2, either in person or via teleconference:

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril Andy Anderegg, The MITRE Corporation Gary Anderson, Army Research Office Dale Ashby, Sikorsky Doug Ball, The Boeing Company Tom Berry, The MITRE Corporation Alan Bloodgood, Lockheed Martin Air Traffic Management James G. Boyd IV, Texas A&M University Steve Brueck, University of New Mexico Robert Buley, Northwest Airlines Carl Burleson, Federal Aviation Administration Philip Carrigan, Raytheon Air Traffic Management Walt Coleman, Regional Airline Association (retired) Sarah Dalton, Alaska Airlines James W. Danaher, National Transportation Safety Board (retired) Duane Dupon, Federal Aviation Administration Igor Frolow, IBM Global Services Pam Gernier, The MITRE Corporation John R. Hansman, Jr., Massachusetts Institute of Technology Pres Henne, Gulfstream Aerospace Richard J. Hill, Air Force Research Laboratory Urmila Hiremath, The MITRE Corporation Gerald J. Iafrate, North Carolina State University Siegfried Janson, Aerospace Corporation Margaret Jenny, Consultant John L. Junkins, Texas A&M University Jack Kerrebrock, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alexander (Sasha) Klein, Preston Aviation Solutions Larry Knolhoff, Department of Defense, Office of the National Security Space Architect Peter Kostiuk, Logistics Management Institute Ilan Kroo, Stanford University Frederick Kuhl, The MITRE Corporation Andrew Lacher, The MITRE Corporation Richard Lareau, Transportation Security Administration Timothy Lewis, Air Force Research Laboratory Robert Liebeck, The Boeing Company Sanford D. Mangold, Department of Defense, Office of the National Security Space Architect Lourdes Maurice, Federal Aviation Administration John McCarthy, Naval Research Laboratory Jack McGuire, The Boeing Company Robert E. McKinley, Jr., NASA Langley Research Center Dennis A. Muilenburg, The Boeing Company Raja Parasuraman, Catholic University of America Paul Piscopo, Department of Defense George Price, NASA Headquarters Blaine Rawdon, The Boeing Company Herm Rediess, Federal Aviation Administration Othon Rediniotis, Texas A&M University John Rekstad, Federal Aviation Administration Harold Rosenstein, The Boeing Company Karlin Roth, NASA Ames Research Center Lillian Ryals, The MITRE Corporation Marvin Schmidt, Universal Technology Corporation Robert Schwab, The Boeing Corporation Walt Smith, Pratt & Whitney

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril Ed Stevens, Raytheon Air Traffic Management Jeffrey M. Stricker, Air Force Research Laboratory Bob Vilhauer, The Boeing Corporation Jim Walton, UPS Advanced Flight Systems Fred Wieland, The MITRE Corporation Rob Williams, Boeing Phantom Works Richard Wlezien, NASA Headquarters Ron York, Rolls-Royce North America Rick Zelenka, The Boeing Corporation Andres Zellweger, NASA Headquarters Dorothy Zolandz, Nationa Research Council

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   FOUNDATION FOR CHANGE   6      Vision and Goals,   6      Beyond the Horizon,   8      Challenge,   8      Change,   10      References,   12 2   IMPROVING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM   13      Impetus for Change,   13      Operational Concepts,   14      Research and Technology,   15      Beyond Technology Development,   17      References,   18 3   SYSTEM MODELING AND SIMULATION   19      Understanding System Models,   19      Analysis and Design to Improve Air Transportation System Performance,   20      System Models and Air Transportation System Safety,   24      Conclusions,   25      References,   25 4   IMPROVING AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE   27      Introduction,   27      Environmental Considerations,   28      Airframe Concepts,   29      Propulsion Concepts,   34      Avionics,   37      Nanotechnology,   37      Recommendations to Improve Aircraft Performance,   39      References,   40 5   PROCESS FOR CHANGE   42      References,   44     FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND THE BIG QUESTION   45

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril     APPENDIXES         A   Statement of Task and Study Approach   53     B   Comparative Assessment of Goals and Visions   55     C   Biographies of Committee Members   60     D   Propulsion Taxonomy: Comments on Propulsion Fundamentals   64     E   Four Levels of Models   67     F   Acronyms and Abbreviations   71

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Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril Tables and Figures TABLES B-1   Comparison of Future Goals and Visions for Civil Aeronautics,   56 D-1   Fundamental Thermodynamic Cycles (nonregenerative),   64 D-2   Matrix Summary of Propulsion Taxonomy,   65 FIGURES 3-1   Generic inputs into an air transportation system performance model,   20 3-2   Fundamental air traffic management modernization requires analytical approaches with two different starting points,   22 4-1   Nontraditional aircraft concepts: strut-braced wing, joined wing, and blended-wing-body,   32 4-2   Unducted fan demonstrator ready for flight,   33 4-3   Thermal efficiency versus pressure ratio for conventional heat engine cycles,   34 4-4   Predictions made in 1968 of subsonic thrust-specific fuel consumption, updated with data on operational systems developed since 1968,   35 D-1   Thermal efficiency of the Otto, Brayton, and Carnot cycles,   66 E-1   Generic inputs for a model of airport capacity,   68 E-2   Ratio of expected demand to airport throughput capacity as a function of time (2000 to 2015) and planned airport and terminal area improvements for the 31 largest U.S. airports,   68 E-3   Influence of runway capacity and number of available gates on throughput at the 30 busiest airports in the United States in visual meteorological conditions,   69 E-4   Impact of traffic growth on scheduling predictability at a major U.S. airport in visual meteorological conditions for 1997 (real data) and 2010 (projected data),   70 E-5   Economic losses caused by undercapacity at U.S. airports, assuming that improvements to the air transportation system occur as scheduled,   70

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