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The Sun to the Earth and Beyonc Pane/ Reports Solar ancl Space Physics Survey Committee Committee on Solar and Space Physics Space Stuclies Boa rcl Division on Engineering ancl Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.eclu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panels responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by Contracts NASW 96013 and NASW 01001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Purchase Order No. 40-AA-NR-1 1 1308; National Science Foundation Grant No. ATM-0109283; Office of Naval Research Grant No. N00014-01-1-0753; and Air Force Office of Scientific Research Purchase Order No. FQ8671-0101 168. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. Cover: The background photo is of the aurora borealis as viewed from the vicinity of Fairbanks, Alaska. The three figures in the inset show the magnetically structured plasma of the Sun s million- degree corona (left); the plasmasphere, a cloud of low-energy plasma that surrounds Earth and co- rotates with it (top right); and an artists conception of Jupiters inner magnetosphere, with the lo plasma torus and the magnetic flux tubes that couple the planets upper atmosphere with the magnetosphere. Ground-based aurora photo courtesy of Jan Curtis; coronal image courtesy of the Stanford-Lockheed Institute for Space Research and NASA; plasmasphere image courtesy of the IMAGE EUV team and NASA; rendering of the Jovian magnetosphere courtesy of J.R. Spencer (Lowell Observatory). International Standard Book Number 0-309-08972-7 (book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-52593-4 (PDF) Copies of this report are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Wash i ngton, DC 2 0001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-331 3 (in the Washing- ton metropol itan area); I nternet, http://www. nap.edu. Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and re- search, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal govern- ment and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of further- ing knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Counci 1. www.national-academies.org

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RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD Satel I ite Observations of the Earth's Envi ronment: Accelerati ng the Transition of Research to Operations (2003) Assessment of Directions in Microgravity and Physical Sciences Research at NASA (prepublication) (2002) Assessment of the Usefulness and Availability of NASA's Earth and Space Mission Data (2002) Factors Affecting the Utilization of the International Space Station for Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences (prepublication) (2002) Life in the Universe: An Assessment of U.S. and International Programs in Astrobiology (prepublication) (2002) New Frontiers in the Solar System: An Integrated Exploration Strategy (prepublication) (2002) Review of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Applications Program Plan (2002) "Review of the Redesigned Space Interferometry Mission (SIM)" (2002) Safe on Mars: Precursor Measurements Necessary to Support Human Operations on the Martian Surface (2002) The Sun to the Earth and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics (prepublication) (2002) Toward New Partnerships in Remote Sensing: Government, the Private Sector, and Earth Science Research (2 002 ~ Using Remote Sensing in State and Local Government: Information for Management and Decision Making (2002) Assessment of Mars Science and Mission Priorities (prepublication) (2001 ) The Mission of Microgravity and Physical Sciences Research at NASA (2001 ) The Quarantine and Certification of Martian Samples (prepublication) (2001 ) Readiness Issues Related to Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences on the International Space Station (2001 ~ "Scientific Assessment of the Descoped Mission Concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST)" (2001 ~ Signs of Life: A Report Based on the April 2000 Workshop on Life Detection Techniques (prepublication) (2001) Transforming Remote Sensing Data into Information and Applications (2001 ) U.S. Astronomv and Astrophysics: Managing an Integrated Program (2001 ) Copies of these reports are available free of charge from Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477 ssb@nas.edu www. national-academies.org/ssb/ssb. htm I NOTE: Listed according to year of approval for release. lv

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SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE LOUIS J. LANZEROTTI, LucentTechnologies, Chair ROGER L. ARNOLDY, University of New Hampshire FRAN BAGENAL, University of Colorado at Boulder DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado at Boulder JAMES L. B U RCH, Southwest Research I nstitute JOH N C. FOSTER, Massach usetts I nstitute of Tech nology PHILIP R. GOODE, Big Bear Solar Observatory RODERICK A. HEELIS, University of Texas, Dallas MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles Wl LLIAM H. MATTHAEUS, U n iversity of Delaware FRAN K B. McDONALD, U n iversity of Maryland EUGENE N. PARKER, University of Chicago, Professor Emeritus GEORGE C. REID, University of Colorado at Boulder ROBERT W. SCHUNK, Utah State University ALAN M. TITLE, Lockheed Marti n Advanced Tech nology Center Staff ARTHUR A. CHARD, Study Director WILLIAM S. LEWIS,4 Consultant TH ERESA M. FISH ER, Sen for Program Assistant ton temporary assignment from Southwest Research Institute. v

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PANEL ON THE SUN AND HELIOSPHERIC PHYSICS JOHN T. GOSLING, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair ALAN M. TITLE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Vice Chair TIMOTHY S. BASTIAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory EDWARD W. CLIVER, Air Force Research Laboratory JUDITH T. KARPEN, Naval Research Laboratory JEFFREY R. KUHN, University of Hawaii MARTIN A. LEE, University of New Hampshire RICHARD A. MEWALDT, Cal if orn ia I nstitute of Tech nology VICTOR PIZZO, NOAA Space Environment Center JURI TOOMRE, University of Colorado at Boulder THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan PANEL ON SOLAR WIND AND MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS CH RISTOPH ER T. RUSSELL, U n iversity of Cal if orn ia, Los Angeles, Chair JOACHIM BIRN, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Vice Chair BRIAN J. ANDERSON, Johns Hopkins University JAMES L. B U RCH, Southwest Research I nstitute JOSEPH F. FEN N ELL, Aerospace Corporation STEPHEN A. FUSELIER, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center MICHAEL HESSE, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center WILLIAM S. KURTH, University of Iowa JANET G. LUHMANN, University of California, Berkeley MARK MOLDWIN, University of California, Los Angeles HARLAN E. SPENCE, Boston University MICHELLE F. THOMSEN, Los Alamos National Laboratory PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS MICHAEL C. KELLEY, Cornel I U n iversity, Chair MARY K. HUDSON, Dartmouth College, Vice Chair DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado at Boulder THOMAS E. CRAVENS, U n iversity of Kansas TIMOTHY J. FULLER-POWELL, University of Colorado at Boulder MAURA E. HAGAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research UMRAN S. INAN, Stanford University TIMOTHY L. KILLEEN, National Center for Atmospheric Research CRAIG KLETZING, University of lowa JAN ET U . KOZYRA, U n iversity of Mich igan ROBERT LYSAK, University of Minnesota GEORGE C. REID, University of Colorado at Boulder HOWARD J. SINGER, NOAA Space Environment Center ROG ER W. SMITH, U n iversity of Alaska . vl

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PANEL ON THEORY, MODELING, AND DATA EXLORATION GARY P. ZANK, University of California, Riverside, Chair DAVID G. SIBECK, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,4 Vice Chair SPIRO K. ANTIOCHOS, Naval Research Laboratory RICHARD S. BOGART, Stanford University JAMES F. DRAKE, J R., U n iversity of Maryland ROB ERT E. ERG U N. U n iversity of Colorado at Bou Ider JACK R. JOKI PI 1, U n iversity of Arizona JON A. LINKER, Science Applications International Corporation WILLIAM LOTKO, Dartmouth College JOACHIM RAEDER, University of California, Los Angeles ROBERT W. SCHUNK, Utah State University PANEL ON EDUCATION AND SOCIETY RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, El Paso, Chair MARK ENGEBRETSON, Augsburg College, Vice Chair FRAN BAGENAL, University of Colorado at Boulder CRAIG DEFOREST, Southwest Research Institute PRISCI LLA FRISCH, U n iversity of Ch icago DALE E. GARY, New Jersey I nstitute of Tech nology MAUREEN HARRIGAN, Agilent Technologies ROBERTA M. JOHNSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research STEPH EN P. MARAN, NASA Goddard Space Fl ight Center TERRANCE ONSAGER, NOAA Space Environment Center ~Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory until summer 2002. . . vll

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD JOH N H. McELROY, U n iversity of Texas at Arl i ngton (reti red), Chair J . ROG E R P. AN G E L, U n ivers ity of Arizona JAMES P. BAGIAN, Veterans Health Administration's National Center for Patient Safety ANA P. BARROS, Harvard University RETA F. B EEB E, New Mexico State U n iversity ROGER D. BLANDFORD, California Institute of Technology JAMES L. B U RCH, Southwest Research I nstitute RADFORD BYERLY, JR., University of Colorado at Boulder HOWARD M. EINSPAHR, Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceutical Research Institute (reti red) STEVEN H. FLAJSER, Loral Space and Communications Ltd. MICHAEL H. FREILICH, Oregon State University DON P. GIDDENS, Georgia Institute of Technology/Emory University RALPH H. JACOBSON, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired) MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles B RUCE D. MARCUS, TRW, I nc. (reti red) HARRY Y. McSWEEN, JR., University of Tennessee GEORGE A. PAULIKAS, The Aerospace Corporation (retired) ANNA-LOUISE REYSENBACH, Portland State University ROALD S. SAGDEEV, University of Maryland CAROLUS J. SCHRIJVER, Lockheed Martin ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research MITCH ELL SOG I N. Mari ne B iological Laboratory C. MEGAN URRY, Yale University PETER W. VOORH EES, Northwestern U n iversity J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas at Austin JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director COMMITTEE ON SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS JAMES L. B U RCH, Southwest Research I nstitute, Chair JAMES F. DRAKE, University of Maryland STEPHEN A. FUSELIER, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center MARY K. H U DSON, Dartmouth Col lege MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles CRAIG KLETZING, University of lowa FRAN K B. McDONALD, U n iversity of Maryland EUGENE N. PARKER, University of Chicago, Professor Emeritus ROBERT W. SCHUNK, Utah State University GARY P. ZANK, University of California, Riverside ARTHUR A. CHARD, Study Director TH ERESA M. FISH ER, Sen for Program Assistant . . . v///

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This volume, The Sun to the Earthand Beyond: Pane/ Reports, is a compilation of the reports from five National Research Council (NRC) panels convened as part of a survey in solar and space physics for the period 2003-2013. The NRC's Space Studies Board and its Committee on Solar and Space Physics organized the study. Overall direction for the survey was provided by the Solar and Space Physics Survey Committee, whose report, The Sun to the Earthand Beyond: A Decada/ Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, was delivered to the study sponsors in prepublication format in August 2002. The final version of that report was published in June 2003.4 The survey report and the panel reports are included on the compact disk that is supplied with this volume. The panel reports provide both a detailed rationale for the survey committee's recommendations and an expansive view of the numerous opportunities that exist for a robust program of exploration in solar and space physics. Although the recommenda- tions of the survey committee are consistent with the priorities expressed by the panels, it was not possible to incorporate all of the panel recommendations into a balanced program that could be carried out over the next decade within a realistic resource envelope. The preface to the survey committee report, The Sun to the Earthand Beyond: A Decada/ Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, is reproduced below. The Sun to the Earthand Beyond: A Decada/ Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics is the product of an 1 8-month effort that began in December 2000, when the National Research Council (NRC) approved a study to assess the current status and future directions of U.S. ground- and space-based programs in solar and space physics re- search. The NRCs Space Studies Board and its Committee on Solar and Space Physics organized the study, which was carried out by five ad hoc study panels and the 15- member Solar and Space Physics Survey Committee, chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, Lucent Technologies. The work of the panels and the committee was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Founda- tion (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Office of Naval Research (ONR), and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR). Space Studies Board, National Research Council. 2003. The Sun to the Earthand Beyond: A Decada/ Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. lx

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x THE SUN TO THE EARTH AND BEYOND: PANEL REPORTS The Sun to the Earthand Beyond is the report of the Solar and Space Physics Survey Committee. It draws on the findings and recommendations of the five study panels, as well as on the committee's own deliberations and on previous relevant NRC reports. The report identifies broad scientific challenges that define the focus and thrust ~ ~ v ~ . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . at solar and space physics research tor the decade 7(~(~;5 through 7(~-~ ;5, and it presents a prioritized set of missions, facilities, and programs designed to address those challenges. In preparing this report, the committee has considered the technologies needed to support the research program that it recommends as well as the policy and programmatic issues that influence the conduct of solar and space physics research. The committee has also paid particular attention to the applied aspects of solar and space physics to the important role that these fields play in a society whose increasing dependence on space- based technologies renders it ever more vulnerable to "space weather." The report dis- cusses each of these important topics technology needs, applications, and policy in some detail. The Sun to the Earthand Beyond also discusses the role of solar and space physics research in education and examines the productive cross-fertilization that has occurred between solar and space physics and related fields, in particular astrophysics and laboratory plasma physics. Each of the five study panels was charged with surveying its assigned subject area and with preparing a report on its findings. The first three panels focused on the impor- tant scientific goals within their respective disciplines and on the missions, facilities, programs, technologies, and policies needed to achieve them. In contrast, the Panel on Theory, Modeling, and Data Exploration addressed basic issues that transcend disciplin- ary boundaries and that are relevant to all of the subdisciplines of solar and space physics. The Panel on Education and Society examined a variety of issues related to both formal and informal education, including the incorporation of solar and space physics content in science instruction at all levels, the training of solar and space physicists at colleges and universities, and public outreach. The reports of the panels will be pub- lished in a separate volume titled The Sun to the Earthand Beyond: Pane/ Reports. In addition to the input from the five study panels, the committee also received information at a 2-day workshop convened in August 2001 to examine in detail issues relating to the transition from research models to operational models. Participants in the workshop included members of the committee and representatives from the Air Force, the Navy, NOAA, NSF, NASA, the U.S. Space Command, academia, and the private sector. The committee undertook its work intending to provide a community assessment of the present state and future directions of solar and space physics research. To this end, the committee and the panels engaged in a number of efforts to ensure the broad involvement of all segments of the solar and space physics communities. These efforts included town-meeting-like outreach events held at the May 2001 joint meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the American Astronomical Society's (AAS's) Solar Physics Division2 and at spring and summer 2001 workshops of the following programs: International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP), Solar, Heliospheric, and Inter- planetary Environment (SHINE), Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR), and Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM). Each of these outreach events was well attended and provided the committee and panels with valuable guid- ance, suggestions, and insights into the concerns of the solar and space physics commu- nity. Additional community input came from presentations on science themes, missions, and programs at panel meetings, from direct communication with individual panel and committee members by phone and e-mail, and through Web sites and Web-based bulle- tin boards established by two of the panels. Reports in the electronic newsletters of the AGU's Space Physics and Aeronomy section and of the AAS's Solar Physics Division kept 2The AGU and the Solar Physics Division of the AAS are the two principal scientific organizations represent- ing the solar and space physics community.

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PREFACE x those communities informed of the progress of the study and encouraged their continued involvement in the study process. Each of the study panels met at least twice during the spring and summer of 2001. The Panel on the Sun and Heliospheric Physics and the Panel on Education and Society met three times. The committee met five times, three times in 2001 and twice in 2002. The panel chairs and vice chairs participated in two of those meetings, during which they presented their panels' recommendations and received comments and suggestions from the committee.Thefinal set of scientific and mission, facility, and program priorities and other recommendations was established by consensus at the committee's last meeting, in May 2002. The committee's final set of priorities and recommendations does not include all of the recommendations made by the study panels, although it is consistent with them. Each panel worked diligently to identify the compelling scientific questions in its subject area and to set program priorities to address these questions. All of the recommendations offered by the panels merit support; however, the committee took as its charge the provision of a strategy for a strong, balanced national program in solar and space physics for the next decade that could be carried out within what is currently thought to be a realistic resource envelope. Difficult choices were inevitable, but the recommendations presented in this report reflect the committee's best judgment, informed by the work of the panels and discussions with the scientific community, about which programs are most important for developing and sustaining the solar and space physics enterprise. :i

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This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this inde- pendent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: The Sun and He/iospheric Physics Loren W. Acton, Montana State University, George Gloeckler, University of Maryland, Leon Golub, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, and Marcia Neugebauer, U n iversity of Arizona. Solar Wind and Magnetosphere Interactions Stanley W.H. Cowley, Leicester University, United Kingdom, Barry H. Mauk, Johns Hopkins University, Ted J. Rosenberg, U n iversity of Maryland, and Jack D. Scudder, University of lowa. Atmosphere-lonosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions Larry Lyons, University of California, Los Angeles, Stephen Mende, U n iversity of Cal if orn ia, Berkeley, Michael Mendillo, Boston University, Raymond G. Roble, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and J. Hunter Waite, Jr., University of Michigan. Theory, Modeling, and Data Exploration Joseph B. G u rman, NASA Goddard Space Fl ight Center, Lynn M. Kistler, University of New Hampshire, Dana Longcope, Montana State University, John D. Reppy, Cornell University, and Robert J. Strangeway, University of California, Los Angeles. . . . x///

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xlv THE SUN TO THE EARTH AND BEYOND: PANEL REPORTS Education and Society Susana E. Deustua, American Astronomical Society, Terry G. Forbes, University of New Hampshire, Nicola Fox, Johns Hopkins University, George Nelson, Western Washington University, and Bruce Partridge, Haverford Col loge. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the survey committee report and the panel reports was overseen by Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University, and Lennard A. Fisk, University of Michigan. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent exami- nation of the survey and panel reports was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of each report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the i nstitution.

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REPORT OF TH E PAN EL ON TH E SU N AN D H ELIOSPH ERIC PHYSICS REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR WIND AND MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS 3 APPENDIXES ~7 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE- MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS 125 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON THEORY, MODELING, AND DATA 183 EXPLORATION REPORT OF THE PANEL ON EDUCATION AND SOCIETY A STATEMENT OF TASK B ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS XV 211 239 241

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