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Executive Summary
n the late l990s, the U.S. armed forces struggled to meet their recruit-
ing goals and in some cases fell short. This led to the question of how
the recruit-in" process and the recruiters' job could be better sup-
ported in order to ensure that force strength, force quality, and the
required skill mix of personnel will be available to meet ever-changing
security and defense challenges. Military officials recognized that a fun-
damental understanding of the youth population and of the effectiveness
of various advertising and recruiting strategies used to attract them would
be extremely valuable in addressing these questions.
As a result, in 1999, the Department of Defense asked the National
Academy of Sciences, through its National Research Council, to establish
the Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment. The
committee is composed of 14 experts in the areas of military manpower,
military sociology, psychology, adolescent development, survey methodol-
ogy, behavioral theory, economics, and advertising and communication.
During the first phase of its study, the committee examined long-term
trends in the youth population and evaluated policy options that could
improve the propensity for and enlistment in the Services. In our report,
Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth, the committee con-
firmed the decline in propensity for military service among youth and
identified several correlates, especially the trend in increasing college
enrollments.
The committee observed that current military research on advertising
and recruiting often lacked long-term objectives and coordination across
relevant research topics and methodologies. In this second phase, the
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2
EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
committee has developed an evaluation framework to assist the Depart-
ment of Defense and the Services in making informed decisions on the
effectiveness of various recruiting policies and mixes of recruiting re-
sources. This report is the product of the committee's second phase of study.
THE APPROACH
The committee has identified several areas requiring more intensive
study that might benefit from drawing on a variety of methodological
approaches:
· Monitoring trends in youth attitudes, values, and propensity using
surveys (Chapter 3~;
· Planning advertising using generative and experimental approaches
(Chapter 4~;
· Determining optimal levels of advertising and recruiting resources
and assessing the timing and levels of joint and Service-specific
Advertising based on data from past or current programs using
econometric methods (Chapters 5 and 6~;
Determining optimum types of incentives using a combination of
focus groups, surveys, and experimental approaches (Chapter 7~;
and
· Performance management of recruiters again using a combination
of methodologies (Chapter 8~.
Rather than focusing on the strengths and weakness of the various
methods with the intent of identifying some methods as per se superior to
others, the committee's proposed evaluation framework is based on the
fundamental notion that different research designs and the associated
methodologies are suited to address different types of research questions.
Table ES-1 provides examples of common research questions that emerge
in the context of military advertising and recruiting.
The framework has two dimensions. The first dimension differenti-
ates between an existing or new incentive, program, or activity; the second
dimension differentiates between three types of assessments. One type of
assessment occurs in situations in which the outcome is not specified and
the audience is asked to indicate the attractive and unattractive features;
the second type deals with attitudes or behavioral intentions toward mili-
tary enlistment; and the third deals with actual behavior, such as signing
a contract with a recruiter. The cells in the framework list example types
of questions and identify the method most appropriate for addressing
each.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TABLE ES-1 Evaluation Framework
3
Outcome Not
Specified A Priori
Specific Attitudes
or Behavioral
Intentions
Actual Behavior
Question: "What does
programs a target audience see
as attractive or
unattractive features
of a program?"
Method: focus groups;
unstructured or
open-ended surveys
and interviews
(Chapters 4 and 7)
Existing
programs
Same as above
Question: "What
is the effect of a
program on
specified attitudes
or behavioral
intentions?"
Method: surveys;
experiments;
. · .
quas~-exper~men~s
(Chapters 3, 4, 7, 8)
Same as above
Question: "What
is the effect of a
proposed new
program on
enlistment?"
Method:
experiments;
. · .
quas~-exper~men~s
(Chapters 7 and 8)
Question: "What is
the effect of an
. .
exlstmg program
on enlistment?"
Method:
econometric
modeling
(Chapters 5 and 6)
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Monitoring Trends in Youth Attitudes, Values, and Propensity
In its first report, the committee concluded that propensity to enlist is
a major direct determinant of actual enlistment. Thus, increasing propen-
sity should be an important goal of the military. Monitoring surveys are
well suited to measuring trends in propensity and examining the factors
that contribute to changes over time. Implementation of useful monitor-
ing surveys requires multiyear funding commitments and large samples
of respondents. In constructing a monitoring survey to track propensity,
the questionnaire must include a complete set of salient beliefs about the
positive and negative consequences of joining the military. Other impor-
tant content areas are the values attached to various outcomes, the expec-
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4
EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
tation that a particular outcome is more likely to be achieved in a military
versus a civilian job, and the barriers or facilitators for enlistment deci-
sions. In order to ensure complete coverage of these attitudes and beliefs,
good survey designs should also conduct certain types of preliminary or
exploratory studies. The committee recommends that survey research
examining propensity be designed to incorporate the key determinants of
propensity and that it be designed to permit analysis at the individual
level.
The committee proposes a program of survey research involving a
commitment of at least five years. The committee recommends that con-
sideration be given to undertaking a school-based survey, using cohort-
sequential design, in which students are sampled in the 11th and possibly
the 12th grade and regularly resurveyed until the age of 23 or 24.
Planning for Advertising
The purpose of advertising is to distribute information designed to
influence consumer activity in the marketplace. In the military the pur-
pose of advertising is twofold: to increase propensity to chose military
service and to increase the likelihood of an individual choosing to join one
Service over another. In the past, much of the research on military adver-
tising has focused on evaluating the amount and cost of advertising, rather
than on evaluating the effects of advertising content on targeted beliefs
and values. In its first book, the committee found that intrinsic factors,
such as duty to country, should be given increased weight in military
advertising.
In a strategy for developing and evaluating a range of message strat-
egies, the first step is to track the competitive environment for military
recruitment to detect factors affecting youth understanding and views of
military service. The second step is to examine the beliefs, goals, and
language of audience members using focus groups, interviews, and sur-
veys. The third step is to develop and test a range of message strategies
using experimental and quasi-experimental research designs. The fourth
step is to allocate resources to various message strategies. Decision making
during this step is informed by experiments and in-market testing.
The committee recommends a program of research that follows these
steps. Specifically, a program of research should begin with generative
techniques to understand the concepts and language used by youth in
considering alternative courses of action (e.g., higher education versus
military service) and continue with survey research that measures the full
range of beliefs, attitudes, and values that emerge as linked to these alter-
native courses of action. The committee also recommends that advertis-
ing message strategies be evaluated in terms of their effects on targeted
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5
beliefs and values. Such evaluation should make use of experimental
designs in controlled setting and small-scale, in-market experiments.
Advertising should be evaluated in terms of thematic content in order to
determine whether its effects vary by content as well as by impressions
and expenditures.
Determining Optimal Levels of Advertising and
Recruiting Resources
Many of the most important determinants of enlistment supply, as
well as the cost and effectiveness of existing recruiting resources and the
trade-offs among them, have been addressed by a well-developed body
of econometric research. Econometric methods are most appropriate for
studying existing programs and for developing estimates based on natu-
ral variation in resources and outcomes.
There have been several studies over the past 20 years on the effects
of recruiting and advertising on enlistment. The variability among these
studies suggests that a consistent methodology has not been incorpo-
rated. Based on our review of the literature, the committee concludes that:
· Recruiter productivity varies with experience, and hence sudden
changes in the size of the recruiting force result in declines in average
experience. Failure to incorporate recruiter experience into models of
recruiter effects may bias study results.
· Recruiter incentives have been incorporated in supply models via
recruiters' quotas, based on the assumption that increasing recruiting
quotas increases effort. A more complete and realistic model of recruiter
incentives is needed.
· Research to date has not incorporated the effects of Reserve com-
petition on active-duty recruiting.
The committee also concludes that the functional forms (i.e., the shape
of the relationship between the recruiting incentive and enlistment) of
econometric supply models have been relatively restricted. The under-
lying assumptions (e.g., that each additional advertising dollar has the
same effect regardless of the level of total expenditure) may not be correct,
and an examination of more flexible functional forms would be fruitful.
The committee therefore recommends that research on supply models
make use of flexible functional forms, rather than imposed functional forms.
A theme underlying all of the suggested areas for improvement is the
need for better data, consistently collected and retained over time. Ideally,
these data should include enlistment contract and accession data, by level
of qualification and Service, at the lowest reasonable level of aggregation
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EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
and time period. The data should also include information on the re-
sources and incentives that have been applied and the external factors
that were in effect during the period, as well as indications of recruiting
policies, incentives, and quotas.
Timing and Levels of Joint and Service Advertising
Econometric methods are also applicable to the questions of (1) whether
there is a minimum level of advertising necessary for a cost-effective
recruiting program even if it is not necessary to achieve current enlist-
ment contract goals and (2) what are the proper levels of joint and Service-
specific advertising. Quasi-experimental methods can also be employed
to address the second question.
We describe the conditions under which it would be cost-effective to
advertise in the interests of future enlistment supply and review research
to date on this question. While this research suggests that advertising
may have effects only for a short period of time, the data available to
previous researchers are limited as they do not permit the examination of
time-lagged and nonlinear effects within a time period. In the committee's
view, it would be a serious mistake to view the available research as
sufficient grounds for drawing conclusions one way or another about the
effects of current advertising on future outcomes. The committee recom-
mends a focused effort to maintain advertising data in a systematic way
for purposes of estimating a supply curve that incorporates the potential
for both time-lagged and nonlinear advertising effects. The committee
also recommends a program of research, incorporating quasi-experimental
methods, to examine advertising effects over an extended period of time.
Regarding the question on the appropriate levels of joint and Service-
specific advertising, in our judgment, certain types of advertising themes,
such as generic themes designed to increase overall propensity, are best
done as a joint program, while advertising themes featuring specific ben-
efits of military service are best done in the Service program. What we do
not know is what level of advertising funding should be allocated to joint
programs. We therefore recommend a program of research aimed at ex-
amining the effects and cost-effectiveness of information-oriented versus
values-oriented advertising in joint and Service advertising programs.
Determining Optimal Types of Incentives
The Services have many types of enlistment incentive programs in
operation today, most of which are aimed at highly qualified recruits.
Current incentives include education benefits as well as enlistment
bonuses for various types of jobs. The Services are experimenting with
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
other incentives, particularly those that forge a closer connection between
military and college pursuits, and also those that offer differing lengths of
active-duty and Reserve tours.
We review research on various incentive programs, both old and
new, in terms of the different types of research designs that have been or
are being used for studying this topic: survey, experimental, and econo-
metric. The central message is that each of the evaluation methodologies
discussed in previous chapters can play a useful role in addressing differ-
ent questions that policy makers may ask about current or proposed
incentives. It is also important to note the value of combining approaches
in examining a particular program. For example, focus groups can be
used to explore prospective enlistment options, which are then tested
with a large survey of youth or in pilot tests employing experimental
designs.
Performance Management of Recruiters
Recruiter performance management encompasses the range of issues
and decisions that face Service recruiting managers as they organize to
meet their mission. Service recruiting managers establish systems to select
and train recruiters, to open recruiting offices in specific locations, to
establish production goals, to motivate recruiters with various incentive
programs, and to monitor and assess recruiter performance. In some of
these areas, such as developing recruiter selection programs, there is a
large body of ongoing research in both the military and civilian sectors. In
other areas, such a developing effective incentive programs, research
efforts are minimal.
In many respects, the problems of performance management faced by
the military are no different from the problems faced by private industry.
However, the environments are distinctly different, and the military faces
many restrictions that do not apply in the civilian sector. As a result, some
of the existing research from the professional literature will be of limited
use. Ideally, the military should undertake a continuous and systematic
evaluation of each aspect of performance management system individu-
ally and in combination. Specifically, the committee recommends:
· Continued research on the development of effective recruiter
selection strategies, in conjunction with a consideration of career incen-
tives for service as a recruiter.
· Expansion of the Services' evaluation of overall training of recruiters
to include the study of other informal development opportunities. In
particular, assessment and improvement of the supervisory and coaching
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EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
skills (to include on-thejob training) of those who train recruiters may be
a fruitful approach.
· A program of research aimed at evaluating the effects of goals on
recruiter behavior and outcomes.
· Research to develop a complete model of recruiter performance
and to develop performance appraisal instruments and feedback pro-
cesses based on this model.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
military service
