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OCR for page 68
4
.
Advertising Planning:
Generative and
Evaluative Approaches
.
Following the theory of core variables explained in Chapter 2 and
the survey approaches presented in Chapter 3, this chapter reviews
critical trends in behavioral beliefs and outcome evaluations that point
to research strategies and methods to support planning and evaluation of
advertising for military recruiting. As explained in Chapter 2, positive
attitudes and intentions toward enlisting in the military are supported by
perceptions that enlistment definitely leads to valued consequences or
outcomes. Hence, it is useful to understand how the range of relevant
outcomes and their associated behavioral beliefs relate to the decision to
enlist in the military as a foundation for successful development and
selection of advertising message strategies.
A key fact for the planning of advertising in support of military
recruiting is that "in the late l990s, the Services struggled to meet their
recruiting goals and in some cases fell short" (National Research Council,
2003, p. 11. This period of difficulty in meeting recruiting Goals arose from
,, , .
. . .. ~ ~ . ~ . .. . . . ..
a combination of factors. A strong national economy during the lupus
gave youth access to plentiful employment alternatives. At the same time,
there was a dramatic increase in college enrollment and a continuing
decline in youth interest in military service (National Research Council,
2003, p. 256 and 271~. However, in addition to the availability of civilian
job opportunities and youth interests in higher education, the increasing
difficulty in meeting recruiting goals in the late l990s can also be viewed
in light of the direction of youth attitudes toward military service and
corresponding trends in youth behavioral beliefs and outcome evaluations
related to military service.
68
OCR for page 69
ADVERTISING PLANNING
YOUTH BELIEFS AS A BASE FOR ADVERTISING PLANNING
69
Overall youth attitudes toward enlistment have often been studied
with structured survey questions designed to track year-to-year changes
in the propensity to enlist. Figure 4-1 shows that propensity to enlist
among high school males declined between the mid-1980s and 2001. The
proportion saying "definitely will" enlist declined from 12 to 8 percent
between 1980 and 2001. At the same time, the percent saying "probably
will not" or "definitely will not" increased from about 40 to about 60
percent. Figure 4-2 shows a similar trend for women. The downward
trend in the highest propensity group coupled with the accumulation of a
very substantial segment in the most negative group (the group at the top
of Figures 4-1 and 4-2) indicates the importance of discovering whether
changes in youth perceptions of specific outcomes and belief expectancies
100-
90 -
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
\
-
_
O- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
`~ `~ `~$~§
Class Years
| definitely will ---probably will probably won't |
FIGURE 4-1 Trends in high school seniors' propensity to enter the military:
males, 1976-2001.
NOTE: The spaces between the lines show the percentages in each of the three
propensity categories.
SOURCE: Data from Monitoring the Future surveys.
OCR for page 70
70
100 -
90 -
80 -
70 -
<~5 60-
c' 50-
40 -
30 -
20 -
10 -
EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
O- l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l
LOOM
Class Years
definitely will ---probably will probably won't |
FIGURE 4-2 Trends in high school seniors' propensity to enter the military:
females, 1976-2001.
NOTE: The spaces between the lines show the percentages in each of the three
propensity categories.
SOURCE: Data from Monitoring the Future surveys.
offer potential explanations. Such findings could give rise to message
strategies specifically addressed to the relevant outcomes and behavioral
beliefs.
The potential for specific youth outcome evaluations and behavioral
beliefs to relate to the continuing decline in the propensity to enlist was
shown in a Defense Manpower Data Center report contrasting year-to-
year results from the Youth Attitude Tracking Studies (YATS) (Lehnus,
Srokowski, and Daniels, 2000~. For example, between 1992 and 1999 the
percentage of males ages 16 to 24 who evaluated the outcome of duty to
country as "extremely important" or "very important" dropped from
about 70 to about 57 percent (Lehnus et al., 2000, Figure 12A). During the
same time period, the percentage of males ages 16 to 24 reporting the
behavioral belief that duty to country could be more likely to be fulfilled
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ADVERTISING PLANNING
71
in the military also declined from about 43 to 28 percent, while the percent-
age saying that this outcome could be better fulfilled in a civilian context
increased from about 7 to 33 percent (Lehnus et al., 2000, Figure 12B). The
1992 to 1999 YATS surveys also showed a similar decline in the impor-
tance of duty to country among women ages 16 to 24. Women were also
more likely than men to associate the goal of duty to country with civilian
rather than military work.
The 1992 to 1999 time period was one of increasing economic prosper-
ity, and corresponding changes in other behavioral beliefs concerning
military versus civilian attribution are also informative. For example, for
males the percentage saying that the outcome of working in teams is
"extremely important" or "very important" increased consistently from
about 71 to 77 percent. However, the behavioral belief that working in
teams is an outcome to be realized in the military decreased from about 32
to 21 percent, while the civilian attribution increased from about 7 to 17
percent (Lehnus et al., 2000, Figures 10A and JOB). At the same time,
military attribution of the outcome of preparation for a future career or
job, a long-time positioning concept for military service, declined from
about 20 to 13 percent for the military, while civilian attribution increased
from about 17 to 28 percent (Lehnus et al., 2000, Figures 14A and 14B).
Since 1999, youth interest in military service has taken shape in the
context of major national and international events as well as a dramatic
deterioration of economic conditions involving major business firms, entire
industries, and the overall availability of employment opportunities in
the economy. Possible effects of these changing circumstances can be
examined by comparing the results from the 1999 YATS survey with the
Department of Defense (DoD) Youth Polls conducted in 2001 and 2002.1
These are surveys of youth who have never served in the military and
who were neither accepted for military service at the time of the survey
interviews nor enrolled in postsecondary reserve officer's training corps
programs.
A comparison of the results for these surveys shows that the propen-
sity to enlist increased immediately following the events of September 11,
2001, for youth ages 16 to 21. The DoD Youth Poll of October-November
1The sampling frame for the YATS annual surveys was youth in the 16 to 24 age range,
while the more recent DoD Youth Polls for 2001 and 2002 have sampled youth in the 15 to
21 age group. In this chapter, to provide for comparability of the survey results, the reported
comparisons of these three surveys are based on a reanalysis of the data for the three
surveys using only those respondents in the 16 to 21 age range. A further consideration is
that sampling strategy as well as the time the survey is administered may be a differentiat-
ing factor. However, the consistency in response to the 24 attributes from one administra-
tion to the next suggests that the sampling strategies are similar across the surveys.
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72
EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
2001 found 15.5 percent of youth ages 16 to 21 saying they would "defi-
nitely" or "probably" be serving in the military in the next few years and
49.0 percent saying "definitely not." These results contrast with the 1999
YATS survey, which found 14.1 percent saying "definitely" or "probably"
and 52.8 percent saying "definitely not."
The 2001 DoD Youth Poll also included questions concerning a range
of 24 job-attribute-related outcome expectancies linking service in the
military (or in a civilian job) to these attributes. A similar grouping of
questions had been included in the annual surveys of the former YATS
research program. Only two of the beliefs about outcome evaluations
examined in the 2001 DoD Youth Poll showed significant and indeed
substantial changes for both men and women: "doing something for your
country" and "working as part of a team." For men, the proportion saying
that doing something for your country is "extremely important" or "very
important" increased 10.7 percentage points, from 57.1 percent in the
1999 YATS survey to 67.8 percent in the 2001 DoD Youth Poll. For women,
the same comparison increased 15.5 percentage points, from 53.6 to 69.1.
At the same time, the proportion of men saying that working as part of a
team is "extremely important" or "very important" dropped 15 percent-
age points, from 75.6 percent in 1999 to 60.6 percent in 2001. For women,
the same comparison dropped 16.4 percentage points, from 77.7 to 61.3
percent.
Turning to behavioral beliefs about the extent to which the 24 out-
comes are seen as associated primarily with work in the military, the 2001
Youth Poll revealed significant changes in youth perceptions since the
1999 YATS survey with respect only to beliefs about "doing something
for your country." For men, the percentage saying that "doing something
for your country" was more likely to be realized through military service
(than civilian work) increased from 25.7 to 41 percent. For women, the
same comparison increased from 19.4 to 39.7 percent.
These dramatic changes with respect to reported youth beliefs con-
cerning the importance of doing something for your country and working
in teams reflect what youth ages 16 to 21 experienced and observed in the
world around them during the years 2000 and 2001. What the future
holds for these apparent changes in youth beliefs, and the possibility of
changes with respect to other beliefs, will depend on the course of events.
Clearly, the military action in Iraq during 2003 will be a significant factor
in that regard. The most recent DoD Youth Poll (fielded in October-
November 2002) found that responses to the standard question about the
propensity to enlist had returned to the historical pattern established dur-
ing the 1990s, with 14.6 percent of youth ages 16 to 21 saying they would
"definitely" or "probably" be enlisting and 52.5 percent saying they will
"definitely not" enlist (Sattar et al., 2002~. The 2002 DoD Youth Poll did
OCR for page 73
ADVERTISING PLANNING
73
not also include questions concerning the 24 outcome evaluations and
behavioral beliefs examined in 2001 and in the previous YATS surveys.
The belief changes revealed by the 2001 DoD Youth Poll findings,
coupled with continuing national and international events of great sig-
nificance, point to the need for continuous monitoring of the propensity
to enlist with survey questions that also examine a range of youth behav-
ioral beliefs and outcome evaluations relating to the decision to enlist in
the military. The two major changes with respect to the outcome evalua-
tions (the increase in importance of doing things for the country and the
decline in the importance of working in teams) suggest the need to spe-
cifically examine the areas of duty to country and individualism as they
relate to current youth interests. Indeed, as shown by the pre-l999 YATS
surveys and the 2001 DoD Youth Poll, the direction of youth beliefs relat-
ing to doing something for your country appears to be closely associated
with the direction of the propensity to enlist. An understanding of the
current status of such beliefs is essential to effective development and
planning of advertising message strategies. The findings also indicate the
need to examine such considerations as the overall level of advertising to
support military recruiting, the additional audiences (such as youth
influencers) for recruiting related advertising, and the range of message
strategies employed in the advertising support for military recruiting.
ADVERTISING PLANNING QUESTIONS
The dollar value of overall military advertising expenditures and
recruiting bonuses has increased at least threefold since 1990 (National
Research Council, 2003, p. 221; Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense
[Force Management Policy], 2000~. This recent and somewhat dramatic
increase in military advertising expenditures was preceded by a period of
substantial decline in the early 1990s, giving the recent increases the
appearance of a recovery from an era of budget cutting. Figure 4-3 shows
that advertising and recruiting bonuses declined by about 50 percent
between 1990 and 1994.2
However, this apparent recovery in overall advertising support is
compromised by a corresponding decline in the purchasing power of
advertising media budgets. A recent report by the Rand Corporation has
shown the purchasing power of the military advertising budget declined
by about 60 percent between 1986 and 1997 (Dertouzos and Garber, 2003,
2This figure appears in the committee's Phase ~ report as Figure S-l, with the addition of
the original line showing the total budget. Note that the line for Joint Services advertising
shows a planned 2003 budget increase that was later cancelled.
OCR for page 74
74
$1 80,000 -
$1 60,000 -
$1 40,000 -
$1 20,000 -
$100,000-
in
a
$80,000-
$60,000 -
$40,000 -
$20,000 -
$o
,~9~ ,~9~ Alto ,~9Oo~ ,~9oO ,~9Oo~ ,.~9OOOo ,.~99~ ~99~ ~99~ ~99~ 99°°
EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
/
,,
/
it//
~ /
1\ /
I \\//
r-
.#
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ' I I
Fiscal
Joint ~ Air Force Marine Corps |
Navy ~ Army
FIGURE 4-3 Enlisted advertising resources FY 1976-2003 in current dollars.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Defense, 2002.
p. 7~. This finding suggests that budget increases since 1994 may have
served only to compensate for the long-term decline in the purchasing
power of the year-to-year budget for military advertising. Furthermore, it
seems likely that the declining marketplace presence associated with the
decline in purchasing power of the advertising budget would have been
exacerbated by what was an almost 50 percent reduction in the overall
advertising budget between 1990 and 1994.
OCR for page 75
ADVERTISING PLANNING
75
Importantly, advertising budgets are only one aspect of the deploy-
ment of advertising to support military recruiting. There are also critical
decisions concerning the selection and definition of target audiences, the
selection of the competitive frame (the choice context of competing options
available to youth) underlying the advertising messages, and the specific
strategic content of the advertising messages themselves. Indeed, in terms
of sources of variance in advertising effectiveness in the marketplace,
each of these considerations is just as important, and sometimes more
important, than the amount allocated to purchase advertising space or
time in the media.
The remainder of this chapter follows the general sequence of activi-
ties associated with the advertising planning process. The sequence begins
with problem identification to support decisions concerning the competi-
tive context, identification of the relevant audiences, development of a
productive range of alternative message approaches from which to select
the most promising approaches, and decisions concerning the amount of
advertising.
Accordingly, the remainder of this chapter is organized as follows:
1. The competitive frame and audiences for military advertising.
2. Examination of audience member beliefs and goals.
3. Development of message strategies for military recruitment.
4. Allocation of resources to advertising message strategies.
5. Conclusions.
Youth Beliefs and Audience Definition
The competitive frame for military advertising can be viewed on two
levels. The first-level competitive frame involves youth in the comparison
of three broad areas of choice following completion of high school: (1) to
pursue higher education, (2) to seek civilian employment, or (3) to seek
military employment. This information-gathering and choice process
involves comparison of three substantially different directions, each of
which may include a variety of possible options. The second-level com-
petitive frame involves the selection of a specific Service, and it applies to
youth whose behavioral beliefs and outcome evaluations support the pos-
sibility of military service. This kind of more specific level of "brand
choice" can involve already interested youth in the comparison or differ-
entiation of the specific opportunities presented by essentially directly
competing options from among the Services.
Military advertising message strategies have generally focused on the
second-level competitive frame (or brand choice) that assumes the exist-
ence of some level of propensity to enlist. For example, the recent Army
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76
EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
advertising claim that "there are 212 ways to be a soldier" differentiates
the Army from the other Services in terms of the wide range of career or
skill options available to youth, while the Marine Corps send their own
differentiating attitudinal signal with their long-standing claim "The Few.
The Proud. The Marines." However, the previously discussed trends
shown by the YATS studies and the results of the recent DoD Youth Polls
point to the value of focusing additional advertising message attention on
the broad competitive frame in which youth view and contrast civilian
employment, higher education, and military service.
The fact that over half of the youth ages 16 to 21 say "definitely not"
with respect to the possibility of military service, and that this percentage
continues to grow, indicates the need to develop an appropriate informa-
tion campaign for the purpose of market development as opposed to the
brand selection approach typically employed in military advertising. That
is, the continuing low levels of propensity and high levels of negative
propensity indicate the importance of exploring the role for advertising
message strategies focused on the broad competitive frame of how youth
of enlistment age contrast the options of civilian employment, continuing
higher education, and military service. Beliefs relating to "doing some-
thing for your country" are particularly germane, and the recent increase
in the outcome expectancy for this belief indicates that there is important
potential for message strategies developed to specifically support youth
beliefs in this area.
In addition to the role of advertising directed to the youth population,
it is also important to examine the role of interpersonal communication
and the extent to which it supports youth interest in military service. The
2002 DoD Youth Poll found that 53 percent of youth ages 15 to 21 said that
the majority of their impressions about the military were based on infor-
mation from friends and acquaintances, and 33 percent reported that a
family member was the source of the majority of such information. When
asked about whether they were influenced by these sources, 37 percent of
the youth said the source had a positive effect on their likelihood of join-
ing the military, 53 reported no effect, and 9 percent said the effect was
negative.3
These results help demonstrate the role played by interpersonal com-
munication sources (such as family members, friends, teachers, and
others) whereby youth receive information and social support. The sur-
vey results suggest that the majority of these information sources are not
3Data analysis from October 2002, DoD Youth Polls of 2,000 youth ages 15 to 21 who have
not enlisted and are not currently serving in the military tu.s. Department of Defense,
2002).
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ADVERTISING PLANNING
77
conveying a positive effect. This indicates there is a need to invest in
information campaigns directed to audiences with whom youth commu-
nicate and consult when considering military service. Although there has
been some recent development and testing of such advertising, the long-
term practice has been to concentrate on advertising by individual
Services designed to influence youth selection of those branches. While
this approach may continue to play a leading role in the budgeting of
military advertising, significant supplemental and continuing resources
may be required to influence other critical and influential audiences in
order to successfully address the continuing decline in the propensity to
enlist and related trends in related youth behavioral beliefs and outcome
evaluations.
The survey results from the former annual YATS surveys and the
recent DoD Youth Polls have shown that significant recent events, such as
on September 11, 2001, and recent war fighting actions can have impor-
tant effects on youth beliefs and interest concerning service in the military.
As previously discussed, youth interest in military service (as measured
by the propensity to enlist) increased slightly and temporarily in 2001. A
similar pattern in the propensity to enlist was observed during the time of
the 1991 Persian Gulf war. Both the annual YATS survey program and the
Monitoring the Future Survey showed the period of increased interest to
be brief in the early l990s, followed by a return to the ongoing trend of
declining interest. These observed long-term patterns in propensity,
coupled with what appears to be the possibility of rapid changes in related
underlying outcome evaluations and behavioral beliefs, point to the need
for ongoing surveys in the fashion set forth in Chapter 3. These observa-
tions also point to the possibility that these outcome evaluations are sub-
ject to reinforcement by specifically developed message strategies that
could be conveyed in advertising directed to the youth population.
Behavioral Beliefs and Goals
The previous section identified two possible problems in the environ-
ment for military recruiting that might be successfully addressed by
advertising. The first problem involves the downward trend in the pro-
pensity to enlist observed prior to 2001 and the possibility that the trend is
driven to a significant degree by changes in the importance to youth of
certain goals or outcomes and the attribution of these beliefs to military
service (behavioral beliefs). The second problem involves the need for
more supportive interpersonal communication from such groups as peers,
parents, and other parties. These groups communicate with potential
applicants and have the capacity to influence youth decisions concerning
the decision to enlist in the military.
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EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
The range of behavioral outcomes examined in the former YATS sur-
vey program and the more recent DoD 2001 Youth Poll is one that devel-
oped in an ad hoc manner over a period of more than 20 years. There is a
need for research to provide a more complete picture of the range of
relevant beliefs held by the youth population. In particular, such research
should include close examination of the entire range of beliefs relating to
public service, duty to country, and the virtues associated with military
service, such as personal sacrifice and concern for others. The perceived
attractions of the possible outcomes or actions to be taken (such as enlist-
ing in the military) are shaped by personal goals and value structures
(Gutman, 1982~. It is therefore important to more completely understand
the entire structure of youth beliefs associated with public service, duty to
country, and other virtues associated with military service. It can also be
helpful to study the current language or word choice used by youth as
they think and speak about these issues. Incorporation of language used
by the audience facilitates the productivity of both the research process
and provides helpful information for effective design of messages directed
the audience of interest (see McQuarrie and Mick, 1999~.
The questionnaires used in the 1999 YATS survey program and the
2001 DoD Youth Poll provide useful starting points for further research
concerning youth values and beliefs. In addition to the standard measures
of propensity, the YATS survey included questions about the importance
of 26 behavioral outcomes and their related behavioral beliefs concerning
the likelihood of successful pursuit of the values in civilian or military
contexts. The 2001 DoD Youth Poll included 24 items based on the YATS
approach.
Only one of the 26 items in the original YATS survey questionnaire
examined the value of duty to country and the virtues associated with
military service. Similarly, issues such as the importance of higher educa-
tion and the importance of working in teams were examined by only one
questionnaire item. For example, rather than pursuing the value of fur-
ther education itself as a key outcome evaluation, the YATS questionnaire
item focused only on the importance of obtaining money for education.
Moreover, to manage the time burden of the surveys, the questionnaire
items concerning outcome evaluations and their related behavioral beliefs
were asked of randomly assigned subgroups of the total samples, thereby
making it difficult to fully examine the relationships among the beliefs as
well as their individual relationships with the measures of propensity
to enlist.
To better understand the potential directions for advertising strategy,
it would be helpful to conduct studies that more completely examine the
range of beliefs related to the decision to enlist, particularly those associ-
ated with duty to country and youth interest in continuing with higher
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ADVERTISING PLANNING
79
education. This is particularly challenging in that both of these areas of
cognitive structure (beliefs related to the decision to enlist) ultimately
bear on the very different competing choices available to youth (civilian
employment, continuing pursuit of higher education, or military service).
Choice situations involving divergent alternatives or seemingly non-
comparable alternatives (such as military service and higher education)
can be better understood by developing a more complete picture of the
conceptual structure (beliefs) applied by the audience (Iohnson, 1988~.
The remainder of this section describes generative research approaches
to reveal the belief concepts and language employed by youth and other
research techniques that can be used to more completely describe and
document conceptual structures for duty to country, interest in higher
education, and related youth values relevant to the decision to enlist.
One approach is to conduct in-depth interviews with a relatively small
sample of participants from the target audience. Study participants can be
asked to contrast choice alternatives in their own words and to explain
their thinking with increasing levels of probing. For example, one such
generative technique is to employ pairwise or triadic comparisons of
alternatives asking individual study participants to describe their percep-
tions of the similarities and differences of the alternatives presented to
them. This approach is based on the repertory grid method, which orga-
nizes the concepts and language used by study participants to describe
similarities and differences among groupings of stimuli (Kelly, 1955~. The
information provided by individual study participants can be contrasted
and condensed as a way to identify the field of value or goal constructs
used by study participants (Spiggle, 1994~. The values or goals may vary
in specificity from higher levels (more abstract), such as personal comfort,
adventure, and prestige to lower levels (more product or choice specific),
such as opportunity to learn job skills, compensation potential, and per-
ceived difficulty of tasks (Howard and Sheth, 1969~. In this case, the
choices (or objects) for comparison involve civilian employment, higher
education, and military service.
Once identified in generative research, the concepts and language
used by the study participants can be used to develop a questionnaire for
use in a field study of a representative survey sample of audience mem-
bers. Following the approach used in YATS and the 2001 DoD Youth Poll,
ratings for importance (or outcome evaluations) and attribution (behav-
ioral beliefs) could be obtained for the various values or outcomes. Beliefs
could be measured concerning the likelihood of each value or outcome
being delivered or provided by each of a selection of alternative choices,
such as civilian employment, higher education, and military service. Con-
ventional analytical techniques such as factor analysis could be used to
examine relationships among the values or outcomes, thus depicting the
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EVALUATING MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING
belief structure of the youth audience as it relates to the choices. The
extent to which the values relate singly and in combination to such vari-
ables as propensity to enlist could also be examined.
The results of studies of this kind, including the approaches detailed
in Chapter 3, would provide a more comprehensive and reliable view of
the belief context (both outcome evaluations and behavioral beliefs) for
youth decision making about military enlistment and would provide a
basis for the development of alternative message strategies to inform
youth concerning the possibility of military service. The results of such
studies could also be used in the development of a revitalized annual
tracking survey of youth values and propensity in the fashion of the
approaches described in Chapter 3.
Message Strategies for Military Recruitment
Message strategies comprise four elements that identify (1) the audi-
ence of interest, (2) the desired response (such as switching one's brand
choice or increasing the rate of use of a product category or specific brand),
(3) the alternative actions or the competitive frame, and (4) the basic
message argument (or promise) that may lead audience members to take
the desired action (Overholser and Kline, 1975~. Message arguments are
also referred to as concept statements or benefit statements. Such a statement
is written as a condensation of the core benefit so that effective com-
parisons can be made of the virtues of individual and specific alternative
approaches to presenting and selling a product, service, idea, or orga-
. .
nlzahon.
For example, the following message argument "The Army gives you
more choices" is one that may lead potential applicants to view the Army
in a more favorable light in contrast to civilian alternatives or the other
Services. All four elements of a message strategy are implied in that
example: (1) an audience of youth making career choices, (2) strengthening
of interest in or preferences for the Army, (3) a broad comparison to
civilian or military alternatives, and (4) the idea that the Army has a
greater selection of jobs from which to choose. The plausibility of such a
message argument might also be viewed from the perspective of the
Army, an organization that has a wide range of job descriptions to fill.
Another hypothetical message argument could be "The Army makes
it easier to choose," which might speak to members of the youth audience
with concerns about selection of a specific career direction. The role of
such a statement is to provide a succinct promise that can guide the devel-
opment of advertising messages. More effective advertising generally fol-
lows from message arguments that set forth an identity between a product
strength and specific audience member beliefs. Such message arguments
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ADVERTISING PLANNING
81
could apply to relevant youth outcome evaluations and behavioral beliefs
and, at the same time, connect them directly to an appealing strength of
military service.
A variety of message arguments can be developed for any product,
service, or organization. The most useful arguments are generally those
that bear most directly on values or beliefs that are associated with audi-
ence member decision making. Earlier in this chapter youth beliefs relat-
ing to the importance of duty to country and the association of this belief
with military service were shown to be related to the propensity to enlist.
Beliefs about public service and duty to country could be connected to
military service with a message argument to the effect that the military, or
a specific Service, is comprised of people of widely different job interests
who are learning and fulfilling a wide range of assignments. Simply
stated, such a message argument would be that "Military service offers
the widest range of ways to serve one's country," thereby directly con-
necting a competitive advantage of the military (a wide range of work
assignments providing opportunities for everyone) with a potentially
important area of youth beliefs (duty to country). This is just one of many
alternative message arguments that could connect the unique opportuni-
ties of military service. Many alternative message strategies could be
developed and evaluated for their potential to reinforce relevant youth
beliefs in such areas as duty to country, public service, career preparation,
pride and accomplishment, and self worth, among others.
There are numerous approaches to testing the possible effectiveness
of message strategies and message arguments. Moreover, it is important
to adopt the policy of actively and continuously developing and evaluat-
ing alternative approaches that directly challenge existing message strat-
egies and message arguments. The development and testing of challenge
strategies can be incorporated in the ongoing work of research suppliers
and advertising agencies. Armed with this information, organizations are
better prepared to update existing message strategies, to appropriately
change message strategies to respond to the competitive context, or to
utilize a productive combination of mutually supporting message strate-
gies to better inform relevant audiences.
To effectively select message strategies, communicators should
develop a range of possible message strategies that are based on what is
known about problems in the competitive context and an understanding
of the relevant beliefs of the audience as they relate to youth choices in the
competitive frame (or the available alternative actions, such as continuing
in education, civilian employment, or military service). For military advertis-
ing, the message strategies of greatest interest will be those bearing most
directly on the propensity to enlist and supportiveness of the audiences of
friends, family members, and other influential people.
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Message strategies for further consideration will be those that directly
reflect what is known about the belief structure of the audience and the
specific beliefs that are most relevant to propensity. The relationship
between the belief structure and intentions to take the desired action
(propensity to enlist in this case) provides important support for the
selection of the message arguments with greatest potential.
It is also helpful to adopt the policy or practice of regularly (or continu-
ously) challenging the existing communication strategies by developing
and testing viable alternative message strategies. The potential attractive-
ness of alternative message arguments can be contrasted by presenting
study participants (potential members of the intended audience) with
simple written statements in what is called a "concept test" (Davis, 1997:
Ch. 5~. Or prototype examples of advertising messages (known as
"camps" of print advertising and "animatics" for television commercials)
can be tested in laboratory settings or by means of test-marketing selected
market areas or media.
There are many approaches to testing prototype executions of pos-
sible communication strategies (Davis, 1997: Ch. 22~. In-market tests can
vary from small-scale use of print ads or television commercials to the use
of selected market areas over extended periods to test message approaches
and advertising budgeting levels. No single approach is ideal, and it is
generally good practice to use multiple methods that effectively examine
audience comprehension of the prototype advertising and the extent to
which the advertising demonstrates the capacity to influence interest in
military service.
In an experimental design context, this kind of research approach
performs the role of a treatment check. The results can demonstrate
whether the message argument, in the form that it is produced and tested,
has the capacity to deliver the desired message to the intended audience.
In this connection, it would also be important to adopt a consistent mea-
sure of propensity that reflects the approach most widely used in market
surveys of propensity. Reliance on unstructured approaches based on
group interviews with convenience samples (such as the commonly used
focus group approach) is generally not an effective approach or method
for purposes other than idea generation. Indeed, it is important that all
research for advertising planning be placed in the context of a theory or
model that focuses attention on the most relevant audience member beliefs
in a valid and reliable manner. Such a theory was developed in Chapter 2
and is reflected in the analysis developed in this chapter.
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Allocation of Resources to Advertising Message Strategies
The allocation of resources to advertising, whether to an organiza-
tion's overall advertising budget or to specific communication objectives,
products, or brands, is among the most important and challenging realms
of organizational decision making. Well-chosen communication strate-
gies, when carried out with effective message execution and media selec-
tion, can build information relationships with clients and organizational
stakeholders that are necessary to year-to-year goal attainment.
Although scientific methods are regularly applied in support of adver-
tising decision making, the area nevertheless remains an inexact science
(see Dertouzos and Garber, 2003, for a recent review relating to military
advertising). Presumably, all communication managers would like to
make optimal decisions about the allocation of resources to advertising;
however, the complexity of variables involved leads to the selection of
generally "better" decision alternatives rather than proven identification
of the "best" alternatives.4 It is generally a year-to-year trial and adjust-
ment process that includes a balancing of considerations of competitive
communication activity, the direction of consumer interest, organization
strategic objectives, and available resources. Historical perspectives on
advertising spending, the availability of resources that might be allocated
to advertising, and pragmatic judgment continue to play central roles in
decision making about advertising budgets.
In this connection, one widely regarded approach to improving adver-
tising decision making is to promote specificity in stating goals for adver-
tising. Specific goals can focus decision making about the deployment of
advertising resources and lead to the design of evaluation approaches
that are more likely to provide for the possibility of valid and reliable
results. This approach has been codified in the classic and still widely
employed approach known as the DAGMAR (defining advertising results
for measured advertising results) model (Colley, 1961, 1963~. The premise
of this model is that advertising is a communication process, and there-
fore advertising should be assigned specifically stated communication
goals and then evaluated according to measured attainment of those
stated goals. With respect to the planning of military advertising, such
goals can be stated in terms of desired effects on measurable variables,
such as specifically targeted outcome evaluations and behavioral beliefs
as well as the propensity to enlist.
4For reviews of the scientific status of advertising allocation decisions see Ramond t1974'
and Mantrala <2002~.
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It follows from this approach that military advertising should be allo-
cated on the basis of the year-to-year measured information needs of the
youth population (and other relevant audiences) and that evaluation of
advertising performance in terms of the extent to which these information
needs were met, as demonstrated by significant changes in such factors as
audience awareness, beliefs relating to the decision to enlist, and inten-
tions such as the propensity to enlist. Reliance on traditional economic
analysis, with recruiting contracts as the dependent variable, would not
be seen as necessarily productive in this regard because the communica-
tion effects of the advertising exposures would be embedded in a broad
context subject to many other potential causes. In particular, the practice
of keying the annual military advertising investment to year-to-year
recruiting goal attainment, as measured by the number of enlistments, is
to allow the process to be driven by such factors as the direction of the
overall national economy, recruiter deployment decisions, and enlistment
incentives and to ignore the ongoing information needs of youth as
revealed by the continuous tracking of measures of youth beliefs relevant
to the decision to enlist and measures of the propensity to enlist.
The current status of survey measures of youth beliefs and the pro-
pensity to enlist, discussed earlier in this chapter, provide an assessment
of the orientation (or readiness) of the youth population to enlistment. As
the events of the past 10 years have amply demonstrated, the Services can
encounter difficulty meeting enlistment goals when key youth beliefs and
the propensity to enlist decline to some recently observed levels. The
reinforcement and maintenance of these beliefs and an agreed-on level of
propensity should be central to advertising planning decisions, particu-
larly decisions concerning the annual investment in advertising.
Earlier we posed specific questions about youth beliefs related to the
propensity to enlist that could lead to the development of possible adver-
tising message strategies. Once developed and tested at the message
argument level, such concepts could be further evaluated in laboratory
and in-market situations. The assessment could focus on the specific
attainment of desired changes in such measures as changes in awareness
of the desired strategic message elements, the levels of specified beliefs,
and the propensity to enlist.
Three broad question areas can be summarized as follows:
1. Is there an erosion in youth beliefs or values that bear importantly
on the propensity to enlist? If so, are there message strategies to effec-
tively inform youth beliefs related to the propensity to enlist?
2. Is the overall budget level for military advertising sufficient, given
the ongoing pattern of erosion in the propensity to enlist since 1980? The
recent developments in the economy (declining civilian employment
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85
opportunities) and in national and international events appear to result in
temporary boosts to propensity. Although the favorability of the ongoing
environment for military recruiting appears to be somewhat cyclical, the
underlying downward trend in youth propensity to enlist will continue
to periodically emerge as a barrier to reaching military enlistment goals.
3. Can messages strategies used for youth recruiting also sufficiently
inform youth influencers, or are specialized message strategies needed to
inform parents, teachers, counselors, community leaders, and other youth
influencers?
The possible in-market potential of alternative message strategies
could be tested in a variety of ways. Indeed, given the research design
and measurement challenges, triangulation of the results of several evalu-
ation approaches would be a good practice. These approaches could
include studies conducted in laboratory settings, smaller scale in-market
applications, and multimarket area test marketing of possible advertising
campaigns. It would also be useful to revisit selected aspects of the former
YATS survey approach that would provide for tracking of awareness,
beliefs, and propensity both to diagnose potential communication issues
and to track year-to-year effects of communication programs designed to
influence awareness, beliefs, and the propensity to enlist.
Laboratory Testing
Copy testing techniques, such as provided by commercially available
services or specially designed studies, can be applied in experimental
design settings to contrast the potential effectiveness of alternative mes-
sage strategies. Some of these approaches involve theater-style testing of
mock-up commercials, others involve specially designed tests of port-
folios of prototype print ads, or tests could be based on exposure to alter-
native strategic approaches produced on prototype web pages. In this
approach, exposure to message strategies can be controlled and the capaci-
ties of the strategic directions to inform and influence various audiences
can be evaluated and contrasted. For example, a conventional "2 by 2"
factorial design could be employed to contrast the potential effects of two
different message strategies on a sample of research participants selected
to represent two audience groups of interest (a positive propensity group
and a negative propensity group). Clearly, more complex designs could
be developed depending on the alternative message issues to be con-
trasted and the types of audience groupings of interest. The value of
employing an experimental design outlook is that such studies call for a
research design to test specific alternatives, effective sampling techniques
to represent desired audiences, and the use of valid and reliable measures
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of effects. Importantly, the exact features of the design should be based on
a theory or model (such as the one developed in Chapter 2 and employed
in this chapter) and be utilized to inform specific alternative choices relat-
ing to the selection of message strategies or other advertising planning
questions. This is a more attractive approach for planning advertising
than the qualitative research studies that are sometimes employed for
advertising message evaluation, especially the highly subjective approach
of focus group interviews.
Smaller Scale In-Market Experiments
Another approach is presented by the possibility of utilizing web
sites in tandem with the selective use of conventional advertising media,
such as newspapers, magazines, and television. Web sites (or controlled
partitions within web sites) could be used to represent differing message
arguments. Alternative message approaches could be presented on a
random basis to web site visitors, or selected media vehicles (individual
ad placements in newspapers, magazines, or television commercial place-
ments) could be used to test the capacities of alternative message approaches
conventional to interest youth in visiting specific web site locations. The
web site technology would enable specific tracking to measure whether
"information relationships" can be developed with individual youth and
whether these relationships lead to applicant status, completed contracts,
and successful completion of basic training and the first term.5 In this
approach, message arguments could be tested in terms of their capacities
to attract interest and to guide audience members to further information
available on web sites. The flexibility and specificity of media use in the
approach would also allow for the testing of messages designed to reach
specialized groups of youths or other audiences of interest. In this way,
the message argument effects could be traced in terms of their capacities
to influence individual youth to visit with military recruiters, to become
successful applicants, and even to complete basic training.
In-Market Testing
In-market testing of alternative advertising messages, media selection
plans, or budget levels is a challenging endeavor. There are difficulties in
selecting (effectively matching) test market cities or regions, managing
specific media vehicles to control spillover or contamination, controlling
5For a discussion of web sites and the concept of information as a relationship, see
Eighmey 1997.
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related factors such as recruiting efforts, and developing outcome mea-
sures that apply specifically to the objectives of the market test (Bogart,
1986; Dertouzos, 1989~.
Nevertheless, test market approaches could be particularly useful
with respect to the issues such the direction of specified youth beliefs and
the continuing decline in the propensity to enlist. One approach to this
problem is to invest in new and additional specific advertising directed to
the youth population and to youth influencers. New campaign message
approaches and new product introductions present opportunities for
more effective use of test markets (Bogart, 1986, p. 368~. Advertising to
inform youth propensity and addressed to youth influencers would be
new approaches in the marketplace and, in the fashion of a new product
introduction, could present opportunities for test marketing and effective
tracking of outcomes in test market areas.
This approach would be useful for deciding whether there is under-
spending on the overall level of the military advertising effort and whether
specific campaigns directed to youth beliefs supporting propensity and to
youth influencers could improve the productivity of the military recruit-
ing process. Decision making with respect to these issues could be sup-
ported by in-market experiments or market tests that are of sufficient
duration and that employ noticeable levels of advertising in the selected
test areas. Survey methods could be used to track and compare awareness
of the test advertising, key beliefs, and the propensity to enlist.
Annual Survey of Propensity and Related Youth Beliefs
As demonstrated by the recent changes in youth beliefs and propen-
sity, there is a need for an annual survey research to update the previous
tracking of propensity to enlist and to measure the wider range of related
youth beliefs or values related to propensity. With respect to erosion of
certain youth beliefs related to the propensity to enlist, we have identified
the need to explore the potential impact of new message strategies con-
cerning topics such as duty to country and other youth beliefs. An annual
survey of propensity and related youth beliefs would assist in decision
making concerning the need for additional advertising efforts to inform
youth and the success of any such informative advertising campaigns in
influencing the overall level of propensity and youth beliefs that might be
the subject of such advertising.
CONCLUSIONS
The decade of the 1990s was a period of increasing challenge for
military recruiting. A strong economy presented increasing work oppor-
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"unities for civilian employment, youth interest in higher education
increased, and certain youth beliefs became less associated with military
service. These developments led to the point that annual recruiting goals
were not met in 1999. Since that time, employment opportunities in the
civilian workforce have become less plentiful, there have been highly
visible events involving national security, and some new advertising
approaches for military advertising have been introduced.
However, recent surveys of youth interest in the military have indi-
cated a short-term increased interest in military service followed by what
appears to be a return to the levels observed prior to September 11, 2001.
Such a direction would be consistent with the pattern in the propensity to
enlist shown by the YATS survey data for the period before and after the
1991 Persian Gulf war. These developments indicate the need to base
advertising planning on a model of youth beliefs relating to the propen-
sity to enlist and for continuous and consistent monitoring of those beliefs
and the propensity to enlist.
Once the relevant youth beliefs (outcome evaluations and behavioral
beliefs) are examined to an improved extent, it is recommended that alter-
native advertising message strategies be developed and tested on a regu-
lar basis to identify a range of possible message strategies beyond those
that have been traditionally employed to support military recruiting. The
possible effects of these message approaches should be tested using a
theory-based approach and a variety of testing methods to assess the
potential to use advertising to inform both the youth population and the
audience of adult youth influencers. Some questions that might be
addressed include:
· Will messages of duty, honor, and country result in a larger increase
in propensity than other messages, such as those invoking per-
sonal challenge, camaraderie, training, and adventure?
· Will propensity increase more substantially if messages are directed
at influencers rather than at young men and women?
· Over what range of expenditures is advertising cost-effective?
Finally, we recommend that military advertising be allocated and
assessed on the basis of the year-to-year measured information needs of
the youth population (and other relevant audiences) and that evaluation
of advertising performance focus on the extent to which these informa-
tion needs were met, as demonstrated by significant changes in such
factors as audience awareness, beliefs relating to the decision to enlist,
and intentions such as the propensity to enlist. This approach focuses on
marketplace factors that can be directly influenced by advertising. The
practice of keying the annual military advertising investment to year-to-
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year recruiting goal attainment, as measured by the number of enlist-
ments, inherently focuses on such factors as the direction of the overall
national economy, recruiter deployment decisions, and enlistment incen-
tives and ignores the ongoing information needs of youth as revealed by
the continuous tracking of measures of youth beliefs relevant to the deci-
sion to enlist and measures of the propensity to enlist. The variable nature
(up and down year-to-year) of advertising budgeting encouraged by focus-
ing primarily on enlistment goals seriously undercuts the capacity of
military recruitment advertising to help maintain the year-to-year readi-
ness of the youth population with respect to the possibility of military
service.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
military service
