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Priorities for Research on the
Comparative Study of Identity Conflicts
Paul C. Stern, Vitaly Naumkin, Andrew Bennell,
Edward W. Walker, 7~u~mila Gotagova, Emil Pain,
Aleksandr Shubin
authors of this report recommend a major focus of research on
comparative studies of the factors involved in supporting, maintain-
ing, and ending violence in the expression of identity conflicts. This
working group was not appointed by the National Research Council or
the National Academies. Therefore, its findings reflect the views of the
individuals composing the group, not necessarily those of the National
Academies or the appointed committee.
Identity conflicts involve at least one party that defines itself by who
its members see themselves as being. In this respect, they are different
from most conflicts between states. Identity conflicts often occur within a
country, and the country's government can be a party to the conflict.
The research should be organized so as to provide insights relevant to
conflicts with a potential for violence within the former Soviet space and
similar conflicts occurring elsewhere. Our selection of topics for emphasis
is motivated by the search for effective policy instruments that might be
used, either by parties to the conflicts or by outside parties, to reduce
violence or the potential for violence. It is presumed that there is no single
best policy instrument for all such conflicts. Rather, the goal of analysis is
to identify the conditions under which particular approaches to identity
conflicts are likely to work best.
Useful knowledge for understanding and addressing conflicts in any
specific region may come from conflicts occurring in other places and
times. Comparative research should not, therefore, be arbitrarily restricted
in space or time; instead, it should encompass all conflicts, violent or
nonviolent, that are relevant for understanding particular conflict pro-
21
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22
CONFLICT AND RECONSTRUCTION IN MULTIETHNIC SOCIETIES
cesses of interest. Similarly, comparative research should not be restricted
to any single method. In particular, both qualitative case-study methods
and quantitative/statistical methods may be useful. Because these meth-
ods have complementary strengths and limitations, understanding will
be best advanced by research that builds on the findings produced by
different methods.
To develop the research agenda, a broad typology of sources and
manifestations of conflicts, factors affecting whether they are expressed
with violence or not, and policy tools (see background paper by Bennett
et al., p. 86) were considered. A broad range of violent and nonviolent
identity conflicts in the post-Soviet space were considered, as well as
existing databases that might be used or expanded to support the needed
comparative analyses.
It is recommended that comparative research efforts focus on the
eight substantive topics described below. Some of these topics are defined
primarily in analytical terms, and others are focused on types of interven-
tion that may be used to reduce levels of violence in identity conflicts. All
the topics are highly worthy of examination for the goal of providing the
understanding needed for well-informed efforts to keep identity conflicts
from becoming violent and for reducing levels of violence when it does
occur. Some of these topics overlap with those recommended by other
working groups. These overlaps indicate broad endorsement by conflict
scholars, who recognize the importance of the same issues even though
they approach the understanding of identity conflict from different per-
spectives. The eight topics are as follows:
1. mechanisms of mobilization for identity conflict
2. processes of transformation in identity conflicts (processes that
change the identity markers or the actual social cleavages around which
conflict is organized)
3. uses and limitations of force for conflict management
4. effects of possibilities for nonviolent expression and adjudication
of grievances on the likelihood that a conflict will become violent (This
topic includes the effects of democratization and its pace and process on
the potential for violent expression of identity conflicts.)
5. political economy of violent identity conflict, for example, roles of
illicit sources of funds
6. studies of conditions favoring the rise of entrepreneurs of identity
violence, the maintenance of their influence, and their marginalization
7. the problem of similar contexts generating violent expressions in
some identity groups but not others
8. detailed comparisons of potentially instructive cases, for example,
Chechnya versus Ingushetia and Dagestan
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PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH ON THE STUDY OF IDENTITY CONFLICTS 23
Finally, it is recommended that comparative research on identity con-
flict and violence employ a multimethod approach including both case
study and multivariate statistical approaches. This point is elaborated at
the end of this report.
RESEARCH AREAS
Mechanisms for Mobilization in an Identity Conflict
The leaders and entrepreneurs of ethnic, religious, and political move-
ments and organizations use a variety of methods to mobilize popular
support for their positions and for popular expressions of these positions,
including violent actions. These mechanisms are of interest at all stages of
identity conflicts, but especially during phases of escalation and de-esca-
lation.
Comparative research is recommended to uncover the regional and
historical specifics of these mechanisms by examining their use in differ-
ent places and times, with specific focus on cases in which mobilizations
for violent collective actions were and were not successful. Are there
universal methods of mobilization or do they vary depending on the
time, place, and context of their use? Why do particular methods of mobi-
lization appear successful in building mass support and action in one
case, while the same mechanisms remain unnoticed by broad masses of
people in other cases?
Processes of Transformation in Identity Conflicts
In many cases the ideology of an identity conflict may change in the
course of the conflict into something different from what was originally
envisioned by the ideologists or organizers of the conflict. A conflict that
started as political in nature may evolve into an ethnic or religious con-
flict. An example is the conflict in Chechnya, which initially was essen-
tially a political conflict but later acquired features of an ethnic and even-
tually a religious conflict, substantially complicating the search for options
for its resolution. Such transformations sometimes deviate from the intent
of those who instigated the conflicts and seem to evolve based on a logic
of their own. Processes that transform the ideology of a conflict may also
transform the nature of the actual cleavages in a society that is, change
the picture of who is in conflict with whom. Thus, people who are on the
same side when a conflict is framed in ethnic terms may begin to fight one
another if it becomes defined as a religious conflict.
Research is recommended, focusing on the following questions:
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CONFLICT AND RECONSTRUCTION IN MULTIETHNIC SOCIETIES
· What are the mechanisms of conflict transformation?
· How can the course of development of the definition of a conflict
be projected?
· How can decision makers act to keep conflicts from transforming
into types that are especially dangerous?
· What can be done to transform conflicts into forms that are more
amenable to nonviolent resolution?
Uses and Limitations of Force for Resolving Identity Conflicts
Third parties to identity conflicts are often tempted to intervene force-
fully in one way or another to reduce or prevent violence in conflicts that
have a real or potential identity dimension. Some have argued that the
use of armed forces, for example, peacekeeping or peacemaking opera-
tions, in zones of ethnic and religious conflicts, uprisings, and so forth,
often gives rise to unmanageable processes. These may include drawing
an outside country or group of countries into the conflict, a loss of control
over the situation by the government, and increased alienation of peace-
keeping forces from the local people, who may come to perceive them as
taking sides in the conflict usually the side of the adversary. In such
circumstances, peacekeeping missions may be counterproductive. Also,
some have argued that interventions can at times create an identity di-
mension to a conflict that did not previously have that dimension, possi-
bly making resolution more difficult.
Comparative research to identify the conditions under which particu-
lar kinds of forceful third-party interventions affect identity conflicts (for
better or worse) is recommended. The research would seek to identify
principles that can guide the use, extent, timing, function, and form of
forceful interventions. Research would examine both negative and posi-
tive experience in the use of force in different regions by the Soviet Union
and Russia, on the one hand, and the United States and its allies, on the
other. It would seek to test hypotheses such as the above and to arrive at
useful principles by using a comparative approach to experience world-
wide.
Effects of Opportunities for Nonviolent Expression of Grievances
Evidence suggests that identity conflicts are less likely to turn violent
if identity groups have institutionalized opportunities to articulate their
grievances and believe that their preferences are taken into consideration
by local and national leaders. These opportunities may be embodied in
institutions of Western democracies, such as free and fair elections, free-
dom of speech, a free press, freedom of assembly, and full access to the
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PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH ON THE STUDY OF IDENTITY CONFLICTS 25
judicial system to seek redress for discriminatory treatment, violence,
slander, or activities that incite intercommunal violence. Opportunities
for expression may also be embodied in traditional institutions that may,
in some places, be considered more legitimate and more effective than the
formal institutions of liberal democracy for providing voice and represen-
tation and for adjudicating intercommunal conflicts. Consider, as ex-
amples of these institutions, the loya jirga in Afghanistan; customary law
(adat) administered by village or clan (,;iammaty or teipy) in Dagestan and
Chechnya; or the informal system of nationality quotas for public office,
ethnic electoral gerrymandering, and preferential treatment in Dagestan.
Some analysts have suggested that efforts to modernize national
governments in order to standardize and rationalize political and legal
systems may undermine the effectiveness of traditional institutions and
upset an existing equilibrium, thereby increasing the likelihood of inter-
communal violence.
Additional comparative research is needed on the varieties of tradi-
tional mechanisms of intercommunal dispute mediation, on the compat-
ibility of these traditional mechanisms with the formal institutions of lib-
eral democracy and a liberal economy, and on the ways in which greater
legal rationality promoted by modernizing national governments affects
traditional conflict management institutions. A practical goal of the re-
search is to identify ways in which national governments can consolidate
their institutions without upsetting existing intercommunal equilibria.
In some settings, efforts to liberalize and democratize a rigidly au-
thoritarian regime have resulted in intercommunal violence by giving
bigots and extremists access to the media and new opportunities to ar-
ticulate their views and organize politically. lust as economic liberaliza-
tion entails short-term sacrifice for long-term rewards, political liberaliza-
tion and democratization may entail short-term instability in the interest
of more effective institutions of voice and representation in the distant
future. For example, Gorbachev's efforts to introduce a measure of liber-
alization and democratization to the Soviet Union provoked intercommu-
nal violence in many parts of the USSR. Arguably, a decision to liberalize
or democratize Uzbekistan today could provoke interfaith or interethnic
violence not only in Uzbekistan but also in other parts of Central Asia. At
the same time, there are successful examples of democratization without
violent identity conflicts (for example, democratic transitions in Hungary
and Poland and the peaceful breakup of Czechoslovakia).
Comparative research is recommended to focus on the question of
why, under some circumstances, democratization has been peaceful de-
spite the presence of different identity groups, while under other circum-
stances democratization has exacerbated identity conflicts. Possible com-
parisons might involve Hungary, Poland, or Czechoslovakia as relatively
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CONFLICT AND RECONSTRUCTION IN MULTIETHNIC SOCIETIES
peaceful cases and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, or Georgia as rela-
tively violent cases. Independent variables to consider should include the
structure of previous conflict resolution mechanisms, the nature and se-
quencing of the democratization process, the structure and ownership of
the media, and the preexisting level of identity conflict. As above, a prac-
tical goal is to identify strategies of liberalization and democratization
that might make intercommunal violence less, rather than more, likely
during periods of transition.
Political Economy of Violent Identity Conflict
Some economic networks provide resources for violent conflict, pro-
duce additional incentives for conflict, or perpetuate conflict. Domestic
and international actors want to find ways to dissolve or contain such
networks.
In providing resources such as arms, food, and hard currency, eco-
nomic networks enable groups to continue fighting. Sometimes economic
networks can also generate new incentives for conflict, as they do in coun-
tries with natural resources that are valuable on the international market,
such as drugs, diamonds, and oil. Groups profit from the sale of these
resources, sales that are only possible given the conditions of conflict.
These groups benefit from continuation of the conflict, so they do not
actively seek to end it, and in some cases, may hinder settlements. In some
paradoxical cases, though, dividing the spoils of illegal activity may make
a settlement possible, and international efforts to stop the illegal activity
may make settlement more difficult.
Comparative research on these processes should also draw on past
research on the international arms trade, humanitarian aid, and to some
extent the role of diaspora elements in identity conflicts. Research projects
may help identify how and from where violent identity groups gain ac-
cess to economic resources. This research should focus on how violent
identity groups develop the economic networks that support them;
whether these networks provide resources for the conflict or produce a
new incentive for conflict; and the comparison of how different types of
economic networks, for example, networks supporting the sale of drugs
or diamonds, develop in different regions.
Other research questions are raised by the problem of how to disable
economic networks that support violent identity conflict in order to in-
crease the possibilities of peace. Research on this problem might include
studies of the effects of economic sanctions, monetary measures (such as
freezing accounts), international diplomacy, and the creation of alterna-
tive economic opportunities on the viability of illicit markets and the
support for peace and normal venues for economic production and profit.
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PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH ON THE STUDY OF IDENTITY CONFLICTS 27
All these research questions have been addressed to some degree in
the literature on conflict, and especially by studies conducted by the
World Bank and the International Peace Academy. However, these stud-
ies have focused primarily on Africa. Thus, a comparative study that
Includes cases from one former Soviet space would provide a broader
base of knowledge for comparing cases and building theories about effec-
tive conflict management strategies.
Conditions Favoring the Rise and Fall of the
Entrepreneurs of Identity Violence
Because of the expressed interest in this topic by the working group
on collective violence, this working group did not prepare a separate
description of the research agenda. The working group on comparative
study of identity and conflicts endorses this research emphasis and refers
readers to the report of the working group on collective violence.
· 1 1 ~ e1 ~
The Problem of Similar Contexts Generating Violence in Some
Identity Groups but Not Others
Ethnic conflicts are the result of a complex interplay of factors. Com-
parative research is recommended to attend to, in particular, the effects of
three types of variables on the likelihood that identity conflicts become or
remain violent: (1) major societal characteristics and transformations, (2)
cultural/value-based factors, and (3) the behavior of elites and leaders.
The societal factors may include the conflicting parties' differing so-
cial interests and their being part of a particular type of society, such as
traditional or industrial. The important transformations may involve mod-
ernization, revolution, national revival effects associated with disintegra-
tion of a traditional society, national liberation movements, and the tran-
sition from the view of society as a melting pot to the image of a salad.
Research would examine the roles of such social factors and transforma-
tions in countries where there has been violence and where there has been
long-term peaceful coexistence and interaction of different identity groups
despite differences in development or despite major social crises.
Violence may also depend on major differences in cultural values
between identity groups. A desire among members of one group to pro-
tect its values from imaginary or real threats posed by a different culture
or system of values can intensify antagonisms between identity groups to
the point of violent conflict, especially in a social crisis. Research should
track the relationship over time between claims of threats to an identity
group's values and the extent to which it engages in violent collective
action.
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CONFLICT AND RECONSTRUCTION IN MULTIETHNIC SOCIETIES
Both the genesis and the resolution of violence between identity
groups may also depend on the actions of cultural and political leaders,
who interpret their groups' values and define their courses of social and
political action. Leaders' actions may also depend on personal factors
such as a leader's personal charisma, political and organizational skills,
and so forth. It is worthwhile for comparative studies to consider the
activities and personal characteristics of the leaders of identity groups in
studies of whether the groups use violence to pursue collective goals.
Detailed Analysis of Instructive Cases
There is a place for detailed case comparison of places and identity
groups that may be particularly instructive both in itself and for the de-
velopment of theory and understanding. Of particular interest are com-
parisons of similar ethnic groups in the same region who differ strongly
in their use of violence to pursue collective goals. A good example is the
comparison of the Chechens with the Ingush, who also form part of the
Vainakh group, but who have never risen against the Russian authorities.
These groups are also different in levels of involvement in criminal activi-
ties, among other things. Such divergences deserve special attention to
investigate whether they can be accounted for by cultural differences as is
sometimes hypothesized, or by other factors. Other instructive compari-
sons in the North Caucasus region would include Dagestan, which stands
out from other parts of the North Caucasus because the balance among
the ethnic groups has long been maintained without much violence
through a variety of traditional mechanisms.
IMPORTANCE OF A MULTIMETHOD APPROACH
The authors accept the position increasingly being taken by research-
ers on identity conflicts that statistical analysis and case study research
traditions have complementary strengths and limitations and that under-
standing of these conflicts will best be advanced through multimethod
work or work that builds on the findings produced by different methods.
The primary advantages of statistical methods include the ability to
carry out partial correlation analysis and its equivalents, which allow for
quantitative estimation of causal weights and other causal relationships;
the ability to analyze the representativeness or frequency of subsets of the
data collected; and the high degree of replicability of studies using the
same database. Limitations of statistical methods include a lack of ac-
cepted procedures for identifying new variables, difficulties dealing with
path dependencies and complex causality, problems in devising concep-
tually valid operationalizations of qualitative variables, and difficulties in
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PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH ON THE STUDY OF IDENTITY CONFLICTS 29
providing or testing historical explanations of individual cases. Some of
these limitations may be inherent in statistical methods, while others may
involve trade-offs that could ease somewhat with the development or
more effective use of more sophisticated statistical techniques. Notably,
this listing of advantages and limitations is almost the converse of those
of case study methods, which are poor at partial correlations and mea-
sures of frequency but good at identifying new variables, dealing with
complex causal relations, and providing and testing historical explana-
tions.
The increasingly evident complementarily of case studies, statistical
methods, and formal models is likely to lead toward more collaborative
work by scholars using these different approaches. The recent interest
among rational choice theorists in using case studies to test their theories,
for example, is an important step in this direction. More generally, there
are a variety of ways in which the methods can be used together, either in
a single study or sequentially.
· Statistical analysis might identify outliers or deviant cases, and
case studies can investigate why these cases are deviant.
· Statistical studies might identify strong patterns that can then be
used to structure the study of individual cases.
· Case studies can explore the possible causal mechanisms behind
the correlations or patterns observed in statistical studies and provide a
check on spurious inferences.
· Statistical studies can assess the general applicability of causal
mechanisms uncovered by case studies.
· A proposed formal model can be tested in a case study to see if its
hypothesized causal mechanisms were in fact in operation.
· A case study can inductively identify a theory that can then be
formalized in a model.
Because case studies, statistical methods, and formal modeling have
all become increasingly sophisticated, it is becoming less likely that a
single researcher can be adept at more than one set of methods while also
attaining a cutting-edge theoretical and empirical knowledge of a sub-
stantive field. Successful collaboration is therefore likely to take the form
of several researchers working together using different methods, or of
researchers more self-consciously building on the findings generated by
those using different methods. In either form, effective collaboration re-
quires that even as they become expert in one methodological approach,
scholars also become conversant with alternative approaches, aware of
their strengths and limitations, and capable of an informed reading of
their substantive results.
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CONFLICT AND RECONSTRUCTION IN MULTIETHNIC SOCIETIES
The working group therefore encourages multimethod collaboration
among Russian and American researchers on comparative studies of iden-
tity conflicts. Russian and American scholars with knowledge of statisti-
cal techniques and databases might collaborate with their colleagues who
have knowledge of particular cases and formal models to do the follow-
ing:
· identify statistical correlations that have unclear causal mecha-
nisms and that might be usefully explored through case studies
· identify case study findings and new variables that might be tested
statistically
· work to agree on valid, operationalizable measures of key vari-
ables that can be collected into data sets
· build upon the lessons learned from the American "Correlates of
War" project and similar large-scale quantitative analyses of violence to
produce valid and cumulative findings.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
comparative research
