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The Dynamic of Factors of
Ethnopolitical Conflicts in Post-Sovie! States*
Valery A. Tishkov
Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences
The following indicators were developed and are distributed in the
format of an annual survey at scientific seminars to members of the Early
Warning Network, who monitor ethnic relations across Russia and in
other parts of the former Soviet Union. Participants are asked to evaluate
the sociopolitical situation in their states or regions in three ways, assign-
ing points based on the following criteria.
· Using a scale of -2, -1, O. +1, +2, respondents assign a rating to each
indicator as to the positive or negative development of concrete
ethnopolitical factors in the given period. A "-2" rating would indicate a
significant aggravation of factors and their consequences, while a "+2"
would indicate a significant improvement in the situation.
· Using a scale of 0, 1, 2, respondents assign value to the role of each
factor in the composition of the ethnopolitical situation. A "2" rating
would indicate a relatively strong influence, while a "O" rating would
indicate no influence.
· Using a scale of 0, 1, 2, the respondents indicate the level of their
confidence in each sphere represented by the indicators.
The results of these surveys are then compiled and compared with data
from previous years to determine the changing levels of ethnic tensions
over time. The 46 items included in the survey are listed in Table 1.
*Excerpt from Tishkov, V. A., and Ye. I. Filippova, eds. 2001. Interethnic Relations and
Conflicts in Post-Soviet States, Annual Report, 2000. Moscow: Institute of Ethnology and
Anthropology, RAS. The introduction has been summarized. Translation and summary by
Rita S. Guenther.
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216
APPENDIX D
TABLE 1 Indicators of Ethnopolitical Conflicts in Post-Soviet States
Category No. Indicator
1. Environment 1 Condition of water (drinking, irrigation, water ways,
and resources industry related)
2 Soil resources (quality and cost, quantity per person,
access, forests and other arable lands)
3 Natural wealth (use, access, user, dividends)
4 Technological influence (hazardous facilities, emissions,
waste, seizure of property by right of eminent domain,
compensation)
5 Disasters and catastrophes (natural disasters, ecological
disasters, industrial disasters, provoked disasters)
2. Demography 6 Resettlement (dynamic of numbers, ethnic proportions,
and migration degree and dynamic of urbanization)
7 Mixed marriages and divorce
8 Natural movements of populations (birth rates, mortality,
life expectancy)
9 Mechanized movements of population (migration, refugees
and dislocated persons, temporary residents)
3. Power, State, 10 State administrative status
and Politics 11 Doctrine and regime of power (federalism, Unitarianism,
local control, parties and movements, elections and
change of power, state programs of various levels)
12 Ethnic representation (in authoritative positions, in
business, in the informational, science, and education
spheres)
13 Relations of the center to the periphery (legal foundations,
negotiations, contacts, advantages and degree of burden)
14 Human rights and collective rights (legal well-being,
violations, control, legal rights protection)
15 Social order and control over weapons, legal
investigations, and the implementation of court
decisions
16 Competence and authority of power and leaders
17 Official symbolism and calendars
4. Economics and 18 Production and dynamic of prices
the social sphere 19 Income level and disparity of income
20 Employment and unemployment
21 Distribution of labor (by ethnicity, region, industry, level
of societies, exchange of services, trade mediation,
prestige of occupation)
22 Socioprofessional mobility (advancement of ethnic groups,
change of status in labor activities, existence of
marginalized peoples and their composition)
23 Participation in privatization, purchase and sale of land
continues
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APPENDIX D
TABLE 1 Continued
217
No. Indicator
24 State of social protection
Crime and communal violence
5. Culture, 26 Cultural domination
education, and 27 Religious life (composition and changes of denominations;
information presence of/access to places of worship;
ability to conduct rites and rituals; presence and state of
sacred objects, leaders, and proselytizing activity; role in
the state, region, and community)
28 Language status (laws and instructions, language of power,
business, education, information and intergroup
contacts)
29 Primary and secondary education (access, infrastructure,
guarantees, makeup of teaching staff, teaching materials)
30 Higher education (conditions of admission, makeup of
student body, contents of programs, student life)
31 Mass media (structure, composition, control, character of
the program, ethnic composition of journalists and
television correspondents)
32
Traditional holidays and rituals (conditions, support of
power structures, political coloring, participation of
various groups of the population)
Historical discourse
6. Contacts and 34 Group demands and complaints
stereotypes 35 Previous conflicts and collective trauma
36 Ethnic stereotypes (positive, negative, prevalence and use,
offensive nicknames, official counteractions)
37 Change in self-consciousness (correlation of ethnic and
civic, local and regional revival of old identities and the
formation of new identities)
40
38 Myths, fears, and rumors
39 Presence of group idea and ideologies
Level of tolerance (intergroup hate, skirmishes and
violence)
7. External 41 Presence and influence of diasporas
conditions 42 Stability/instability of neighboring and bordering regions
and countries
43 Influence of global rivalry
44 Territorial claims and problems of borders
45 External connections and cooperation
46 Changing external image (of a country, region, republic,
people, community, regime in a region, republic,
country, or world)
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.
.
Other Russian Officials and Specialists Consulted
During the Project
Moscow, Russia
April 2000
Yavus Akhmadov, Professor and Member of Coordinating Council
Sergey Arutyunov, Head of Caucasus Department, Institute for
Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences
Aleksandr Blokhin, Minister, Ministry of Nationalities
Valentin Bushkov, Head of Middle East Department, Institute for
Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences
Ramazdan Daurov, Chief Expert for the Caucasus, Institute for Oriental
Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Oksana Demiankov, Executive Assistant to Deputy Minister, Ministry
of Education
Yelena Filippova, Senior Researcher, Institute for Ethnology and
Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dmitry Furman, Senior Specialist, Institute for Europe, Russian
Academy of Sciences
Dzhabrail Gakaev, Chair of Coordinating Council for Chechen
Societies in Moscow
Andrey Kokoshin, Director, Institute for Security Studies, Russian
Academy of Sciences
Aleksandr Kondakov, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Education
Vladimir Kudryavisev, Vice President, Presidium, Russian Academy of
~ -
~clences
Sergey Nikolaev, Chief for International Cooperation, Ministry of
Nationalities
218
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APPENDIX D
219
Vladimir Pavlenko, Chief of North Caucasus Department, Ministry of
Nationalities
Vladimir Podolin, Chief of Department for Crisis and Reconstruction,
Ministry of Nationalities
Andrey Nikolaevich Sakharov, Director, Institute of History, Russian
Academy of Sciences
Umar Temirov, Staff Director, Duma Committee on Nationalities
Aleksandr Tkachiev, Chair, Duma Committee on Nationalities
Yury Ushanov, Deputy Director, Institute for Security Studies, Russian
Academy of Sciences
Vladimir Yegorov, Chief of Social Sciences Department, Presidium,
Russian Academy of Sciences
Anatoly Yomskov, Head of Conflict Solutions Department, Institute for
Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences
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Chronology of Events Throughout the Project
February 2000 The Russian Academy of Sciences proposes an
interacademy project on Conflicts in Multiethnic Societies.
April 2000 A National Academies team of scholars visits Moscow and
consults with Russian academy officials, scholars, and government
officials on ethnic-related developments in the former Soviet Union
and on the feasibility and importance of an interacademy project.
June 2000 The Academies agree on the goals and character of the
project, and the project begins.
October 2000 A National Academies team of scholars consults with
Russian officials and scholars in Moscow, and then travels to
Rostov-on-Don where officials and specialists from 12 republics and
oblasts of the Southern Federal District assemble in response to an
invitation from the Russian Academy of Sciences to participate in
consultations.
December 2000 The Russian Academy of Sciences hosts an
interacademy Symposium on States in Transition and the Challenge
of Ethnic Conflict attended by more than 75 Russian and American
scholars and officials.
June 2001 Professor Valery Tishkov, representing the Russian Academy
of Sciences on this project, visits Washington, D.C., to meet with the
National Research Council Committee on Conflict and
Reconstruction in Multiethnic Societies and plan the next phase of
the project.
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APPENDIX D
221
October 2001 Three working groups of Russian and American scholars
are established to discuss, respectively, collective violence; culture,
identity, and conflict; and comparative study of identity conflicts;
they begin communicating via e-mail.
December 2001 The three working groups meet in Washington, D.C., to
prepare proposals on research priorities. The proposals are
presented at an interacademy workshop in Washington attended by
30 scholars and policy officials from Russia and the United States.
In preparation for the workshop, three Russian policy officials
consult with American officials and scholars in Washington. The
day before the workshop, President Putin's office informs Vladimir
Yu. Zorin, a workshop participant, that he had been appointed
Minister of Nationalities.
lanuary 2002 President Putin's Representative for the Volga Federal
District, Sergey V. Kirienko, speaks on ethnic and religious relations
in Russia to an audience of 35 government officials and scholars at
the National Academies.
lanuary 2002 Representatives of the Academies begin discussions of the
next phase of cooperation.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
american scholars
