TABLE 6-1 Dummy Variable Model with Common Time Pattern, Original and Revised Dataa

 

Sample

Years

Violent Crime

Murder

Rape

1. Lott (2000)

Original 1992

1992

–4.9%

–7.7%

–5.3%

2. Committee replication SE

Revised 1992b

1992

–4.91

(0.98)**

–7.30

(1.57)**

–5.27

(1.22)**

3. Committee replication SE

Revised 2000c

1992

–1.76

(1.07)

–9.01

(1.70)**

–5.38

(1.33)**

aThe regressions use the covariates and specification from the original Lott and Mustard (1997) models that do not control for state poverty, unemployment, death penalty execution rates, or regional time trends. The controls include the arrest rate for the crime category in question (AOVIOICP), population density in the county, real per capita income variables (RPCPI RPCUI RPCIM RPCRPO), county population (POPC), and variables for the percentage of the population that is in each of many race x age x gender categories (e.g., PBM1019 is the percentage of the population that is black, male, and between ages 10 and 19). The “no controls” specification” includes county fixed effects, year dummies, and the dummy for whether the state has a right-to-carry law.

close and consistent with the conclusion that right-to-carry laws reduce the incidence of murder. Through communication with Lott, the committee learned that the data used to construct Table 4.1 of Lott (2000) were lost and that the data supplied to the committee are a reconstruction and not necessarily identical to the original data.

Row 3 displays estimates using the revised new data set restricted to period 1977-1992. The estimates from these revised data are substantially different from those originally reported by Lott (2000). In the dummy variable model, the magnitude of the estimated reduction in the rates of violent crime and aggravated assault was reduced, the estimated reduction in the murder rate increased, and the sign of the estimated effects of right-to-carry laws on robbery reversed. Moreover, the effects of right-to-carry laws on violent crime are no longer statistically significantly different from zero at the 5 percent significance level. Finally, the estimated increase in the rates of all property crimes increased substantially.

Table 6-2 presents estimates of the trend model. The first row displays Lott’s estimates. Lott finds the passage of right-to-carry laws to be associated with changes in the crime trend. He finds a 0.9 percent reduction in the annual rate of growth of violent crime overall, and a 0.6 percent reduction in the rate of growth of property crimes. Row 2 of Table 6-2 shows the committee’s attempt to replicate Lott’s results using the revised original data set. The committee was unable to replicate most of the results in Lott’s Table 4.8. Through communication with Lott, the committee learned that



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