TABLE 6-5 Dummy Variable Model with Common Time Pattern, 2000 Data

 

Years

Controlsa

Violent Crime

Murder

Rape

0. Committee replication SE

1992b

Yes

–1.76

(1.07)

–9.01

(1.70)**

–5.38

(1.33)**

1. Comm estimate w/ covariates SE

2000

Yes

4.12

(0.71)**

–8.33

(1.05)**

–0.16

(0.83)

2. Comm estimate w/o covariates SE

1992b

No

–0.12

(1.29)

–1.22

(2.65)

1.39

(2.24)

3. Comm estimate w/o covariates SE

2000

No

12.92

(0.78)**

–1.95

(1.48)

17.91

(1.39)**

aThe regressions use the covariates and specification from the original Lott and Mustard (1997) models that do not control for state poverty, unemployment, death penalty execution rates, or regional time trends. The controls include the arrest rate for the crime category in question (AOVIOICP), population density in the county, real per capita income variables (RPCPI RPCUI RPCIM RPCRPO), county population (POPC), and variables for the percentage of the population that is in each of many race × age × gender categories (e.g., PBM1019 is the percentage of the population that is black, male, and between ages 10 and 19). The “no controls” specification includes county fixed effects, year dummies, and the dummy for whether the state has a right-to-carry law.

these ideas in our deliberations but did not adopt them in total as part of our consensus report. This statistical argument is presented to stimulate further discussion and dialogue on these issues.

Extending the Baseline Specification to 2000

Extending the sample to cover the period 1977-2000 provides an important test of the robustness of the estimates for two reasons. First, the number of observations from states with right-to-carry laws in effect more than triples when the additional years are included. Second, 16 additional states enacted right-to-carry laws during the period 1993-1999, thereby providing additional data on the effects of these laws.

Another reason for the importance of the extended data is that aggregate crime trends differ greatly between the periods 1977-1992 and 1993-1997. The first period was one of rising crime, especially in large urban areas, which tend to be in states that did not adopt right-to-carry laws during 1977-1992. The period 1993-1997 was one of declining crime. Any differences in estimation results between the 1977-1992 and 1977-1997



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