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REYKJAVI K
AND BEYOND
Deep Reductions in
Strategic Nuclear Arsenals and the
Future Direction of Arms Control
Committee on international Security and Arms Control
National Academy of Sciences
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1988
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW · Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their
special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate
that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank
Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the
National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The
National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements
of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of
policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility
given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to
the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care,
research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in
1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's
purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the
principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific
and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and
the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice
chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This work was supported by a grant to the National Academy of Sciences from the John
D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.
Library of Congress Catalogue Card No. 87-30193
ISBN 0-309-03799-9
Copyright A) 1988 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic
process, or in the form of phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system,
transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from
the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the United States Government.
Printed in the United States of America
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Seminar Participants
THE HoNoRAs~E FRED C. TKLE,* Under Secretary of Defense for
Policy
MARVIN L. GorDsERGER,: Director, Institute for Advanced
Study; Former Chairman, Committee on International Security
and Arms Control
COMMITTEE ON
INTERNATIONAL SECURIY AN D ARMS CONTROL
Wo~FGANG K. H. PANoFsKY~ (Chairman), Director Emeritus,
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University
LEW ALLEN, JR., Director, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California
Institute of Technology
Paul M. DoTY,t Director Emeritus, Center for Science and
International Affairs, Harvard University
ArExANDER H. F~Ax,l President Emeritus, Institute for Defense
Analyses
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Director, Scripps Institution of
Oceanography
RicHARD L. GARDEN, Science Advisor to the Director of
Research, Thomas l. Watson Research Center, IBM
Corporation
SPURGEON M. KEENY, IR.,l President, Arms Control Association
CATHERINE M. KELLEHER,! Director, Maryland International
Security Project, University of Maryland
JOSHUA LEDERsERG, President, Rockefeller University
CLAIRE MAX, Associate Director, Institute of Geophysics ant!
Planetary Physics, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory
M~cHAE~ M. MAY, Associate Director at Large, Lawrence
Livermore Laboratory
R~cHARD A. Mu~rER, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University
of California
JOHN D. STEINBRUNER,l Director, Foreign Policy Studies
Program, Brookings Institution
* Seminar speaker; declined to have his talk included in this publication.
t Seminar speaker.
, . .
111
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CHARLES H. TOWNES, Department of Physics, University of
California at Berkeley
JEROME B. WIESNER, consultant to chairman; Institute Professor,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
WILLIAM GORDON, Ex Officio, Foreign Secretary, National
Academy of Sciences
VICTOR RABINOWITCH, Executive Director, Office of International
Affairs, National Academy of Sciences
LYNN RUSTEN, Director, Committee on International Security
and Arms Control
LAFAYE LEWIS, Senior Secretary, Committee on International
Security and Arms Control
IV
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Foreword
Since its creation in ~ 864 the
National Academy of Sciences has undertaken many studies and
activities relating to matters of national security, and currently several
committees of the National Research Council advise branches of the
military on questions of scientific research. Other Academy com-
mittees have studied topics such as nuclear winter and the contribution
of behavioral and social sciences to the prevention of nuclear war.
The Committee on International Security and Arms Control
(CISAC) reflects the Academy's deep interest in international security
and the potential of arms control to reduce the threat of nuclear war.
Its members have been deeply involved in many aspects of military
technology and arms control. They have advised several presidents
and served in senior governmental posts; they have been involved in
military research since the days of the Manhattan Project; they have
header! universities and research centers; they have been involved
with important arms control negotiations. The members of this
committee have thought long and hard about national security issues.
The committee has pursued a number of activities in response to
its broad charter. Twice each year it meets with its counterparts
from the Soviet Academy of Sciences to explore problems of
v
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v
FOREWORD
international security and arms control. In response to the widely
expressed interest of Academy members in learning more about
issues and opportunities in arms control, it has convened a number
of meetings and sessions on arms control specifically for them. In
the spring of 1984 CISAC conclucted a major tutorial for over 200
Academy members. The background materials for that tutorial
resulted in the book Nuclear Arms Control: Background and Issues,
publisher! in 1985. CTSAC also conclucted a seminar on strategic
defense in 1985 and cosponsored! one the following year on crisis
management that resulted in the short publication Crisis Management
in the Nuclear Age.
In the spring of 1987 CISAC presented a seminar for the Academy
audience that explorer} the implications of the proposals for very
deep cuts in strategic nuclear arsenals that had been discussed by
President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev at the Reykjavik
summit in 1986. The committee felt that, whereas many people
instinctively support the goal of significantly reducing arsenals, very
little serious study had been done on what that wouIc! actually mean
and on how very creep cuts would affect other aspects of the military
balance and the political and international order more broadly.
CTSAC members thus shared their initial thoughts on what changes
in force structures, strategic thought, and political relations would
be necessary to make possible large reductions in the superpowers'
nuclear arsenals.
Because the response to this seminar was so positive, ~ asked that the
talks be collected in a small volume that could be shared with a wider
audience. T believe this volume provides a useful starting point for
thinking about how to tackle the difficult political and military issues
that arise in contemplating the transition to a safer world with significantly
fewer nuclear weapons- a goal that has been enunciated by both the
American and Soviet leaders and embraced by citizens everywhere.
T would like to express my great appreciation to the chairman and
members of CISAC, some of whom contributed to this volume and
all of whom dedicate much time and effort to the activities of the
committee. ~ believe the committee continues to learn a great clear in
the course of its work, and ~ hope that others will jucige that work,
including this volume, to be useful in their own effort to understand!
the role of arms control in reducing the threat of nuclear war.
FRANK PRESS, President
National Academy of Sciences
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Contents
Reykjavik and Beyoncl: Implications of Deep
Reductions in Strategic Nuclear Arsenals ant! the Future
Direction of Arms Control
Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky
2. The Purpose and Effect of Deep Strategic Force Reductions
Tohn D. Steinbruner 1 1
-
The Impact of Defenses on Offensive Reduction Regimes
Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr. 19
4. The Impact of New Techologies and Noncentral
Systems on Offensive Reduction Regimes
Alexander H. Flax
27
V11
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V111
CONTENTS
5. Alliance Issues
Catherine M. Kelleher 34
6. Implications for Conventional Forces
Paul M. Doty
7. The Future of Arms Control
46
Marvin L. Gol~lberger 58
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REYKJAVI K
AND BEYOND
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